29th Pick: Who Should the Flyers Draft?

[FLYguy3911]

I find that with team's reluctant to pick goalies in the 1st anymore, there is usually a run between 31-45. The goalie crop isn't particularly deep this year either so if your guy is on the board at 29, you might not want to get cute.

 

[Tripod]

I don't want a goalie at #29. Too much other talent available at that time. Trade a 3rd and Chicago's 2nd to move up if you want one that bad.

 

[renberg]

I agree that #29 is early for a goalie but the second rounder from Chicago may be too late to get a top player. There always seems to be a run on them mid way through the second round. It put Hextall in a bind unless he makes a deal which could include picks or picks and a player.

 

[Jtown]

if we get a goalie at 29 ill be let down . I really want to focus on rebuilding that forward depth with the first 2 picks atleast.

 

[Random Forest]

I would also be disappointed with a goalie at #29. If you want a goalie but don't want to wait until #60, then you need to do what it takes to trade up to ~40 to take your guy. There is more value in a skater at #29 than a goalie this year, imo.

Tomek or Vladar should be around at 40, anyway.


For the record, this is what I think will happen.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

When you have prospects like Sprong or Kylington (two players I doubt the Flyers have much interest in) who could potentially be available at #29 there could be teams who'd look to move up to grab one of them.

New York traded up to #28 to grab Ho-Sang last year for example. They gave up an early second (#35) & a late second (#57) to Tampa Bay to do so.

Buffalo, Arizona, Columbus, Edmonton, New Jersey, & Calgary have multiple second rounders this year.

 

[Random Forest]

When you have prospects like Sprong or Kylington (two players I doubt the Flyers have much interest in) who could potentially be available at #29 there could be teams who'd look to move up to grab one of them.

New York traded up to #26 to grab Ho-Sang last year for example. They gave up an early second & a late second to Tampa Bay to do so.

I'm sure this will be possible, but I think adding a player like Beauvillier, DeBrusk, or Juulsen to our prospect pool and trading up from 60 to take Tomek/Vladar is a better use of our picks than trading back from 29 to presumably take Vladar/Tomek and picking up an additional late 2nd.

TB's 1st gives us an opportunity to pick up another blue chip skater. Something we lose if we parlay it into a late 2nd and a goaltender we could probably trade up for, anyway.

 

[Psuhockey]

I'm sure this will be possible, but I think adding a player like Beauvillier, DeBrusk, or Juulsen to our prospect pool and trading up from 60 to take Tomek/Vladar is a better use of our picks than trading back from 29 to presumably take Vladar/Tomek and picking up an additional late 2nd.

I agree about trading up. The Flyers have roster players to move and multiple picks in the 3rd and 4th round. They can definitely get up into the top half of the 2nd with the right package from Chicagos pick.

 

[Jtown]

When you have prospects like Sprong or Kylington (two players I doubt the Flyers have much interest in) who could potentially be available at #29 there could be teams who'd look to move up to grab one of them.

New York traded up to #28 to grab Ho-Sang last year for example. They gave up an early second (#35) & a late second (#57) to Tampa Bay to do so.

but is adding another pick in this draft really going to help at all? Ill be dissapointed in this draft if hexy has selected more than 8 guys in this draft. Either trade up, or trade for next year.

4 forwards
2 goalies
2 dmen

that is enough

 

[Broad Street Elite]

but is adding another pick in this draft really going to help at all? Ill be dissapointed in this draft if hexy has selected more than 8 guys in this draft. Either trade up, or trade for next year.

4 forwards
2 goalies
2 dmen

that is enough

If you do a trade as proposed above, you can then use later picks to move up in subsequent rounds. If there isn't someone there at 29 that the Flyers are enamored with or the the guy they like is probable to be there if they move back several spots... you increase your flexibility.

 

[King Forsberg]

I would prefer not to pick a goalie until the 4th round. Any earlier than that and it's just a waste. There's bigger holes to fill.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

I'm sure this will be possible, but I think adding a player like Beauvillier, DeBrusk, or Juulsen to our prospect pool and trading up from 60 to take Tomek/Vladar is a better use of our picks than trading back from 29 to presumably take Vladar/Tomek and picking up an additional late 2nd.

TB's 1st gives us an opportunity to pick up another blue chip skater. Something we lose if we parlay it into a late 2nd and a goaltender we could probably trade up for, anyway.

I wasn't giving an opinion there just stating the possibility exists. It all comes down to what Hextall & the scouts feel is the best approach.

Anyway I'll further explain a potential scenario. You could still use the first pick on a skater & have the second one as insurance into landing you a goalie. Columbus for example owns picks #34, #38, & #58. If they offered #34 & #58 & you really don't see a difference in those players compared to ones potentially available at #34 you could give it some thought.

In the end though I really don't care what they do in general when it comes to the draft so I try not to get strong opinions on things one way or another.

 

[Tripod]

if we get a goalie at 29 ill be let down . I really want to focus on rebuilding that forward depth with the first 2 picks atleast.

Lol....now that you said this, they will take Provorov at #7 and Samsonon at #29.

I kid...at least one if those picks need to be a forward. Again, I would not use #29 on a goalie and I would not drop back.

 

[GKJ]

Just a quick look looking at goalies when they're taken in the draft in the first 70 picks:

2014: None in the 1st round, but went 34, 36, 37, 39, 59, 61.

2013: None in the 1st round, but went 36, 44, 54, 59, 63, 70.

2012: 2 in the first round (Vasilevskiy 19, Subban 24), then 31, 45, 62, 69.

2011: None in the first round, but then 38, 39, 62

2010: 2 in the first round (Campbell 11, Vistentin 27), then 49 and 58.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

I don't see them taking a goalie in the first round unless they pick up an additional first round pick. Maybe in the second or later. Mason is solidly here for a couple more years at least. Stolie isn't exactly lighting the world on fire, but it was his first pro season on a pretty bad team. I'd say if Stolie has another poor showing this year, then maybe they target a goalie next year.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Here's a repost of a breakdown of goalies drafted in the first two rounds over the last 10 years:

Goalies drafted in first two rounds over the last 10 drafts:

2014
Mason McDonald (34)
Thatcher Demko (36)
Alex Nedeljkovic (37)
Vitek Vanecek (39)
Brandon Haverson (59)

2013
Zach Fucale (36)
Tristan Jarry (44)
Philippe Desrosiers (54)
Eric Comrie (59)

2012
Andrei Vasilevskiy (19)
Malcolm Subban (24)
Oscar Dansk (31)
Anthony Stolarz (45)

2011
Magnus Hellberg (38)
John Gibson (39)
Christopher Gibson (49)

2010
Jack Campbell (11)
Mark Visentin (27)
Calvin Pickard (49)
Kent Simpson (58)

2009
Mikko Koskinen (31)
Robin Lehner (46)

2008
Chet Pickard (18)
Tom McCollum (30)
Jacob Markstrom (31)
Jake Allen (34)
Tyler Beskorowany (59)
Peter Delmas (61)

2007
Joel Gistedt (36)
Antoine Lafleur (48)
Trevor Cann (49)
Jeremy Smith (54)

2006
Jonathan Bernier (11)
Riku Helenius (15)
Semyon Varlamov (23)
Leland Irving (26)
Michal Neuvirth (34)
Jhonas Enroth (46)

2005
Carey Price (5)
Tuukka Rask (21)
Tyler Plante (32)
Jeff Frazee (38)
Ondrej Pavelec (41)
Pier-Olivier Pelletier (59)

That's 44 goalies drafted in the first two rounds over the last 10 drafts.

4 starters: Price, Rask, Bernier, Varlamov.

7 backups: Pavelec, Neuvirth, Enroth, Lehner, Cal Pickard, J. Gibson, J. Allen.

1 in Craig Button's Top 30 NHL Prospects as of Jan. 2015: Vasilevskiy (4).

How many of the 4 who aren't starters now are projected to be NHL starters? Vasilevskiy, Gibson, Allen, maybe Subban and Demko? So perhaps 5 if all goes extremely well, which is unlikely.

I think when you look at the data overall, you are talking an incredible bust rate; very very few choices where you can say the team got value out of a top 2 round pick by taking a goalie; and a very small sliver of getting an NHL starter, let alone an above-average player.

TL;DR: Don't draft a goalie in the first two rounds.

 

[Hockeypete49]

if we get a goalie at 29 ill be let down . I really want to focus on rebuilding that forward depth with the first 2 picks atleast.

I agree with you 100%. However I still will back whoever they select. At 7 I still think it will be Provorov,Crouse,Zacha or Rantanen (in no order). This team really needs LW's so at 29 DeBrusk and Beauvillier would be nice. We need players who are consistent in their effort every shift. Anyway come on Friday.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Here's a repost of a breakdown of goalies drafted in the first two rounds over the last 10 years:

I think I responded to this post when you did it originally. While it is true there aren't a lot of goalies that are studs selected on a regular basis, there are only 30 spots in the entire for a starting goalie, and of those starting goalies, a very high percentage are first rounders. I don't have the time to find the post or do the searching again, but it was a higher percentage of starting goalies being first rounders than starting forwards or something like that. And if you include the second round those numbers probably increase a lot.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I think I responded to this post when you did it originally. While it is true there aren't a lot of goalies that are studs selected on a regular basis, there are only 30 spots in the entire for a starting goalie, and of those starting goalies, a very high percentage are first rounders. I don't have the time to find the post or do the searching again, but it was a higher percentage of starting goalies being first rounders than starting forwards or something like that. And if you include the second round those numbers probably increase a lot.

I know I incorrectly listed Pavelec with the backups. He should count as a starter. Which would be 5 starters out of 44 picks.

I generously add 5 additional as "likely" to become starters.

So that's 10 out of 44 top 2 round goalies who become starters. So an under 25% rate.

According to this article (http://www.tsn.ca/playing-the-percentages-in-the-nhl-draft-1.206144) "80% of first-round picks, 44% of second-round picks, and 30% of third-round picks will become low-level (or better) NHL players."

According to this article (http://www2.tsn.ca/fantasy_news/story/?id=455673): 73.5% of forwards in the first 30 picks reach (or are very likely to reach) 100 NHL games;
70.6% of defensemen; and
50% of goaltenders.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

From this article: http://hockey-graphs.com/2014/09/04/to-draft-or-not-to-draft-goalies-not-really-the-right-question/

Skaters:

Goaltenders:

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

I know I incorrectly listed Pavelec with the backups. He should count as a starter. Which would be 5 starters out of 44 picks.

I generously add 5 additional as "likely" to become starters.

So that's 10 out of 44 top 2 round goalies who become starters. So an under 25% rate.

According to this article (http://www.tsn.ca/playing-the-percentages-in-the-nhl-draft-1.206144) "80% of first-round picks, 44% of second-round picks, and 30% of third-round picks will become low-level (or better) NHL players."

According to this article (http://www2.tsn.ca/fantasy_news/story/?id=455673): 73.5% of forwards in the first 30 picks reach (or are very likely to reach) 100 NHL games;
70.6% of defensemen; and
50% of goaltenders.

But look at the number of goalies in the NHL that are first round picks. Something like 50% of the starters are first or second round picks (with a couple more likely in the pipeline). It certainly is not the only place to find a starter, but if 50% are selected in the first two rounds and the other 50% selected in rounds 3-7, it would seem your odds are better in the first two rounds. Maybe someone can break it down to each round and see, but to me it doesn't seem like a waste.

 

[dats81]

The bust rate for goalies is higher which means you don't take one in the first two rounds unless something special about him strikes your eye, or the highest ranked goalie prospect unexpectedly falls to you in the late first round which would be too good an opportunity to pass on.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Goalies are risky because there's only one spot. It's not like a defenseman or forward that can be shuffled throughout the lineup. Common sense, but not entirely fair to compare their games played against skaters to determine a bust.

Drafting goalies isn't fun, but you can't just ignore the position and continue to take late round flyers and expect it to change.

 

[Flyotes]

They probably take a netminder in the 2nd so I wouldn't worry.

 

[BillDineen]

Don't forget there are many goalies not even drafted, Hiller, Bob, Lack etc. and that drafting a backup isn't very valuable given how many are available every year.