Post-Game Talk: #23 | Islanders at Flyers | November 29, 2022 | 7:30 PM | Nothing Lasts Forever Even Cold November Losses

[VladDrag]

Bull.

TK has always dumped and chased, because while he has great speed and acceleration, he lacks "shake and bake" so he struggles to deke defenders, Tippett is actually a more fluid skater with the puck. TK's signature move is to dump and then chase, and hope the defender trips or interferes, picking up a penalty.

Frost isn't great at O-zone entry because, while stronger, he's still too easy to bump off the puck. And what disappoints me, is while he's straight line fast, he's not a "shake and bake" guy either, lacks the elusiveness of the top smurfs.

Allison isn't great at zone entry, don't know where you get that, he's a fancier version of MacEwen with more skill, but the same power move and then recover the puck.

Hayes has the "butt move" down cold, lead with the butt, use your body to shield the puck, and he has good hands in traffic.

You know there is tracking data that shows Allison is the best at entries? Legit. So is Hayes, TK, Tippett, and get this, so is Frost.

Your eyes are deceiving you.

 

[deadhead]

Allison is small sample against easier competition.
I'd like to see Frost's numbers the last ten games in a top 6 role.

Do they have data for contested entries? I suspect a lot of TK entries are due to "clean ice," that is, he's got top speed so if a defender isn't in position he can fly by, but I rarely remember him beating a defender in front of him.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Allison is small sample against easier competition.
I'd like to see Frost's numbers the last ten games in a top 6 role.

Do they have data for contested entries? I suspect a lot of TK entries are due to "clean ice," that is, he's got top speed so if a defender isn't in position he can fly by, but I rarely remember him beating a defender in front of him.

So it sounds like you're seeking avenues for cherrypicking, yeah?

If a player is routinely able to create "clean ice" then that's part of his skillset. Unsure why that's a negative.

 

[VladDrag]

Allison is small sample against easier competition.
I'd like to see Frost's numbers the last ten games in a top 6 role.

Do they have data for contested entries? I suspect a lot of TK entries are due to "clean ice," that is, he's got top speed so if a defender isn't in position he can fly by, but I rarely remember him beating a defender in front of him.

Don't worry, Deady. I'll always lead you to water. It's up to you to drink it.

 

[deadhead]

So it sounds like you're seeking avenues for cherrypicking, yeah?

If a player is routinely able to create "clean ice" then that's part of his skillset. Unsure why that's a negative.

Because clean ice is a "no brainer," the carry v dump decision depends on your ability to beat a defender without turning over the puck.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Because clean ice is a "no brainer," the carry v dump decision depends on your ability to beat a defender without turning over the puck.

And how is it he keeps finding himself with clean ice?

 

[deadhead]

That's missing the point, if you're complaining about HCs "dumping and chasing," you have to show that players can consistently make contested entries without turning the puck over - uncontested entries are no brainers.

 

[VladDrag]

Because clean ice is a "no brainer," the carry v dump decision depends on your ability to beat a defender without turning over the puck.

Even though entries are tracked individually, it's really more about how the team works through the neutral zone. How are you exit the zone with possession translates to how well you can enter the zone with possession. Can you get through NZ with speed?

Flyers don't have a lot of players who can get out of the zone effectively. Believe it or not the guys who are tracking as the best at this are, Provy, TK, TDA, Hayes, and Frost. Tippett, Farabee and Allison are not far behind.

We're starting to see a trend here with Frost right? He's right at the top of entries, exits, tracked passing, general shot contributions. These are all things that lead to being a high level offensive player. He's there, there's no doubt about it. Him not scoring/producing is an issue, but give him some offensive players AND give him some time and you're going to see him produce, it's a matter of when, not really if.

 

[Beef Invictus]

That's missing the point, if you're complaining about HCs "dumping and chasing," you have to show that players can consistently make contested entries without turning the puck over - uncontested entries are no brainers.

There is no shortage of teams these days that create controlled entries through mutual support, even for their bottom six and less skilled players. It's stopped being cutting edge ages ago. Unfortunately a lot of the ways to do that fall into Torts' list of "Things I Hate."

And it's not missing the point. It's senseless to penalize a player for being able to create advantageous situations.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Even though entries are tracked individually, it's really more about how the team works through the neutral zone. How are you exit the zone with possession translates to how well you can enter the zone with possession. Can you get through NZ with speed?

Flyers don't have a lot of players who can get out of the zone effectively. Believe it or not the guys who are tracking as the best at this are, Provy, TK, TDA, Hayes, and Frost. Tippett, Farabee and Allison are not far behind.

We're starting to see a trend here with Frost right? He's right at the top of entries, exits, tracked passing, general shot contributions. These are all things that lead to being a high level offensive player. He's there, there's no doubt about it. Him not scoring/producing is an issue, but give him some offensive players AND give him some time and you're going to see him produce, it's a matter of when, not really if.

Like how it was really obvious that teams like Carolina and NJ were on the verge of breaking out before they did, all the signs are there for Frost and yet this team is desperate to quit on him.

 

[deadhead]

Yet Frost doesn't produce, not just points, but even scoring chances, and his linemates are as good or better than Cates or Sedlak.
There's something wrong, and while he'd improve with better wingers, that holds true for most centers (unless they're offensively challenged).

I'm not giving up on Frost, but I feel the same about Tippett, and about Bellows, since he returned to the lineup.
Bellows last 8 games, CF 53.57%, xGF 58.06, HDCF 56.07%
That doesn't make him a starter, but it does suggest he should get the same leeway as Frost and continue to get PT.

Cates is a little different, he could probably play up in the lineup at 2LW if needed, but so far he's outperformed expectations at center. He's got the high IQ, skates better than expected, can stick handle in crowds. His offensive skill set is underdeveloped, probably due to playing at Minn-Duluth, which is like Hakstol on steroids!

So if you think Frost should get more time and opportunity at center, you should feel the same about Cates, and Tippett and Bellows at wing. If we're rebuilding, we can afford to give all these players a chance to develop. And that includes Allison and Lycksell. Laczynski would be my first choice to send down after Willman and Brown, because you're not going to have room in the top nine and with all the time he's missed the last two years, I'd rather see him in the top six in LHV than the 4th line here. But they may not have enough centers.

In a couple weeks?
Farabee - Frost - TK
Hayes - Cates - Atkinson
JVR - Sedlak - Tippett
Deslauriers - Laczynski - Allison

If Lycksell comes up, Hayes to center? and Sedlak and Cates move down?
(you bring Lycksell up to play in the top 9)

 

[Beef Invictus]

Yet Frost doesn't produce, not just points, but even scoring chances, and his linemates are as good or better than Cates or Sedlak.
There's something wrong, and while he'd improve with better wingers, that holds true for most centers (unless they're offensively challenged).

I'm not giving up on Frost, but I feel the same about Tippett, and about Bellows, since he returned to the lineup.
Bellows last 8 games, CF 53.57%, xGF 58.06, HDCF 56.07%
That doesn't make him a starter, but it does suggest he should get the same leeway as Frost and continue to get PT.

Cates is a little different, he could probably play up in the lineup at 2LW if needed, but so far he's outperformed expectations at center. He's got the high IQ, skates better than expected, can stick handle in crowds. His offensive skill set is underdeveloped, probably due to playing at Minn-Duluth, which is like Hakstol on steroids!

So if you think Frost should get more time and opportunity at center, you should feel the same about Cates, and Tippett and Bellows at wing. If we're rebuilding, we can afford to give all these players a chance to develop. And that includes Allison and Lycksell. Laczynski would be my first choice to send down after Willman and Brown, because you're not going to have room in the top nine and with all the time he's missed the last two years, I'd rather see him in the top six in LHV than the 4th line here. But they may not have enough centers.

In a couple weeks?
Farabee - Frost - TK
Hayes - Cates - Atkinson
JVR - Sedlak - Tippett
Deslauriers - Laczynski - Allison

If Lycksell comes up, Hayes to center? and Sedlak and Cates move down?
(you bring Lycksell up to play in the top 9)

Frost is right with Hayes and Tippett for SCF%. You love praising how effective Tippet is!

As ever, you're just making stuff up. Oh, and he's well ahead of Cates even with less advantageous usage.

 

[Deadpool8812]

The Flyers are smart. The sooner they end a 10 game losing streak, the quicker they can start a new one.

 

[VladDrag]

Like how it was really obvious that teams like Carolina and NJ were on the verge of breaking out before they did, all the signs are there for Frost and yet this team is desperate to quit on him.

It's the same reason why teams are trying to pry him from philly, if that tweet was real. He's a real candidate for a breakout second half of the season. The tracking data is there. He is honestly right there. Get him in the right deployment with linemates that can produce and it will happen.

 

[VladDrag]

Yet Frost doesn't produce, not just points, but even scoring chances, and his linemates are as good or better than Cates or Sedlak.
There's something wrong, and while he'd improve with better wingers, that holds true for most centers (unless they're offensively challenged).

You understand that xGF models are really heavily dependent on shots actually getting off, right? You don’t get any points for being a good passer. For example if you get the puck to a player who lets it hop over his stick, you dont get any points for that. You get more points for a basic unscreened wrister from the point that will actually score less often then the flubbed pass. This is an extreme example, but it’s why his ability to make short in tight passes is very valuable. Put him with TK and see the points pile up. We saw that 2 years ago when he played with Giroux.

Sedlak gets elevated xGF numbers from shooting quite literally all over the place. It’s one of the faults with xGF models.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Sometimes I think cherrypicking a single stat and a derivative of it isn't a good way to paint an accurate picture.

 

[deadhead]

Like how it was really obvious that teams like Carolina and NJ were on the verge of breaking out before they did, all the signs are there for Frost and yet this team is desperate to quit on him.

Carolina was NOT obvious at all, where NJ has been collecting elite talent at the top of the draft, Carolina had a lot of misses.
They missed the playoffs 9 straight seasons with no improvement until Brind'Amour took over.

Skinner was traded for peanuts (82g 24-25 49)
Hanifin and Lindholm for Hamilton and Ferland.
Svechnikov #2 was the big addition, 82 g 20-17 37.
Task for Neiderreiter mid-season
Wallmark #97 (23) became a starter, Foegle #67 (22) as well
Martinook for Kruger
Calvin De Hann D was added to the third pair
The goalies were Mrazek and McElhinney, upgrade over Ward and Darling but not an elite pair.

So some incremental improvements, Hamilton was an upgrade over Hanifin, but not a huge one, Svechnikov replaced Skinner, Ferland replaced Lindholm, and so on. A couple rookies got to start. Neidereiter had a hot finish.

The big change was going from a bad HC (Peters) to a good HC and changing the team approach.
This is different than going from one veteran HC to a different one, that can give you a short-term bump, but in Carolina the change was far greater and sustainable.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

Don't worry, Deady. I'll always lead you to water. It's up to you to drink it.

he will state its sand...until hes blue in the face

 

[Beef Invictus]

Carolina was NOT obvious at all, where NJ has been collecting elite talent at the top of the draft, Carolina had a lot of misses.
They missed the playoffs 9 straight seasons with no improvement until Brind'Amour took over.

Skinner was traded for peanuts (82g 24-25 49)
Hanifin and Lindholm for Hamilton and Ferland.
Svechnikov #2 was the big addition, 82 g 20-17 37.
Task for Neiderreiter mid-season
Wallmark #97 (23) became a starter, Foegle #67 (22) as well
Martinook for Kruger
Calvin De Hann D was added to the third pair
The goalies were Mrazek and McElhinney, upgrade over Ward and Darling but not an elite pair.

So some incremental improvements, Hamilton was an upgrade over Hanifin, but not a huge one, Svechnikov replaced Skinner, Ferland replaced Lindholm, and so on. A couple rookies got to start. Neidereiter had a hot finish.

The big change was going from a bad HC (Peters) to a good HC and changing the team approach.
This is different than going from one veteran HC to a different one, that can give you a short-term bump, but in Carolina the change was far greater and sustainable.

And yet a bunch of us here were perking up and taking notice of Carolina in advance. So obviously something obvious was going on.

 

[mize370]

Frost 22-657.98
Sedlak 17.943.34
Lindros 88.342.38

I like throwing number around also when i think it will help my argument

BTW these numbers mean absolutely nothing. I watch by feel. Use my eyes and stomach. Just like super Torts! haha

 

[deadhead]

You understand that xGF models are really heavily dependent on shots actually getting off, right? You don’t get any points for being a good passer. For example if you get the puck to a player who lets it hop over his stick, you dont get any points for that. You get more points for a basic unscreened wrister from the point that will actually score less often then the flubbed pass. This is an extreme example, but it’s why his ability to make short in tight passes is very valuable. Put him with TK and see the points pile up. We saw that 2 years ago when he played with Giroux.

Sedlak gets elevated xGF numbers from shooting quite literally all over the place. It’s one of the faults with xGF models.

Actually, that's the flaw more with CF numbers, xGF is both about shooting and where you're shooting from, perimeter shots are valued far less. Sedlak's issue is neither he or the linemates he's been give are good at finishing, too often it's "close but no cigar."

I see two flaws with Frost, he doesn't have the agility and vision of G, who could create space for himself and buy time for linemates to shake open, and he still struggles with puck control in traffic. Cout's strength was his strength, controlling the puck in a crowd and getting it to an open man. How much Frost can improve is a question they need answered.

Now he may benefit more from top linemates b/c he's good in open space, he looks better on the PP than 5x5 b/c he has more room and time to make plays - linemates who draw attention would help him in that sense. And one reason I think he should play with fast linemates is that would allow more open ice and a chance to use his speed.

I think Cates is better in traffic, but his offensive instincts are probably underdeveloped. He might be a good with guys like Foerster b/c he's good on the forecheck and recovering pucks in a scrum and feeding linemates - but speed isn't his forte.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Surely there is some middle ground below Giroux and Couturier where a player can be made extremely useful with some competent management.

 

[VladDrag]

Actually, that's the flaw more with CF numbers, xGF is both about shooting and where you're shooting from, perimeter shots are valued far less. Sedlak's issue is neither he or the linemates he's been give are good at finishing, too often it's "close but no cigar."

I see two flaws with Frost, he doesn't have the agility and vision of G, who could create space for himself and buy time for linemates to shake open, and he still struggles with puck control in traffic. Cout's strength was his strength, controlling the puck in a crowd and getting it to an open man. How much Frost can improve is a question they need answered.

Now he may benefit more from top linemates b/c he's good in open space, he looks better on the PP than 5x5 b/c he has more room and time to make plays - linemates who draw attention would help him in that sense. And one reason I think he should play with fast linemates is that would allow more open ice and a chance to use his speed.

I think Cates is better in traffic, but his offensive instincts are probably underdeveloped. He might be a good with guys like Foerster b/c he's good on the forecheck and recovering pucks in a scrum and feeding linemates - but speed isn't his forte.

It's still a flaw with an xGF model too, deady. Btw, the xGF model also accounts for things like rebounds, one-timers, but I don't know the exact specifics. The HDCF is mostly geographically based.

But xGF is still 100% a shot based model. If you don't take a shot you don't get points, simple as that. Scenario A - farabee makes a cross ice pass to Hayes but the puck hops over his stick resulting in no shot, therefore no xGF value can be assessed for that play. Scenario B - Braun shoots a harmless wrist shot at the net? If we replay that scenario 10 times, what is more likely to result in a goal? Using this scenario you can see why playmakers are not appropriately represented in a purely shot based model. That's why tracking data is more valuable for playmakers. It doesn't have to result in a shot. But theproblem with tracking is it's very subjective.

I am not going to get too much into skill discussions with you, because we are just too far apart about what we see, but definitively Frost is much better in tight than Cates