21/22 Roster Speculation Thread Part IX - The trade deadline cometh Monday , March 21

[Jim Bob]

If Adams wants to make Peters and Rivet happy, he trades for Gudas and signs Gudbranson as the moves at RHD.

 

[Jim Bob]

lol No. You can play both 25 mins a night and let the other 4 guys earn their minutes. It would literally be the dumbest thing in the world

The Ducks with Nieds and Pronger on separate pairings is the blueprint, IMO.

 

[Chainshot]

The point is that in the context of other teams being able to manage the cap and playtime of 2 top pairing caliber defensemen while staying competitive means exactly that. You can win and have a solid team balance while having 2 guys who are arguably both franchise level players in the same position.

If the Rangers had both Fox and Makar do you think they would trade one of them? If the Avs had both would they trade one? Should the Ducks have traded one of Niedermayer or Pronger when they made 13 million against the cap combined when the team cap limit was 44 million in 06-07? They took up 30% of the teams cap? They were both LD playing 27 minutes a game and they still won the cup.

Agreed. Good teams find a way to keep their good players.

 

[TehDoak]

I dont think any major move we make this offseason will make us a Stanley Cup contenders the next two seasons. To me Fiala is young enough to take a big swing on. Dumba isn't. Lets say 24/25 is the start of our peak. I dont care if the cap does go up, Dumba at 9 million for diminishing returns is a complete no-go.

Just look at what the Wild are going through with Parise and Suter. Why would we want to replicate that with Skinner and Dumba.

And all these kids are gonna get paid. If you want to sign them to 4 to 6 year deals the bidding starts at 4 million for maybe all 8 of them (Mitts/Peterka/Power/Krebs/Cozens/Samuellson/Quinn/Joker). I've projected our cap out the next 8 seasons. Its not gonna be easy to keep them all. In fact definitely one, if not two, of that group of 8 won't be on the team in 4 years.

No move is going to make us a cup contender. And its fine to want to avoid regrettable contracts, but I also think having a high volume of ELCs (Power, Quinn, Peterka, another year of Cozens, two more years of Krebs) is that its an opportunity as well.

Also consider that not every ELC we have now is going to turn into a big contract. Some of these players simply aren't going to work out the way we want, and that is fine. There are only two potentially large contracts on the horizon at this point, Thompson assuming he can keep this production up next year and Dahlin. No one else has hit production levels that justify anything more than a bridge deal.

assuming Power is signed after the weekend…

there is going to be a competition between Dahlin and Power on who is the top LHD. When the next contracts come up I see one getting traded. You can’t pay a second LD that kind of high money.

Petrrka and Quinn do their 3 yr ELS thrn go on bridges which end when Skinners contract ends. You coukd pencil his money going to them.

Similarly there likely will be decisions made on tage/ Mitts/ Cozens/Krebs where 1-2 could be traded.

you will have young players coming from the 2021-2023 draft classes

ignoring Power you have 5 top 100 drafted players in 2021. Thry shoukd be adding 9 more in the next 2 drafts.

when Peterka and Quinn ELCs are done they could have 6+ F prospects in the system who can play forward.

I mean, it may boil down to: Does Dahlin want to commit here. Things look good now, but a lot can change in a season. Either way, there are two full seasons to get it sorted. There is zero reason not to keep both at this point.

just because other teams have it, it’s ok???


you don’t give a UFA a max year contract that long to him. He’s 28 next year. Max id go us 4 yrs.

I don't disagree, but that takes you out of the conversation on almost all big name UFAs.

Really its about asset management. Because if you need a role filled, your choices are:

Pay assets for that player via trade and pay their contract. The better the contract vs production, typically the higher asset price.

With UFAs, you aren't paying any assets in draft picks or players, you are simply paying their contract. If the player isn't going to simply fall off a cliff to start the contract

The question becomes: which is greater: the assets you give up to acquire the player or the cap I lose by overpaying in term on a player.

 

[Jim Bob]

The question becomes: which is greater: the assets you give up to acquire the player or the cap I lose by overpaying in term on a player.

If you look at teams around the league that have had lasting success, their core group has by and large been acquired through the draft and trades.

Florida has one notable big money UFA signing in Bob. And that contract has gotten Skinner contract level hate prior to this season.

Tampa's top 6 highest paid forwards are all guys they drafted and developed. They have largely used trades to build their D core around Hedman with low cost UFAs in Rutta & Bogo. And Vasy is a draft and develop guy in net.

Boston has some UFAs. But again, the bulk of their core have been guys they've drafted with some smart trades to fill in holes.

The challenge we have as fans is that we are throwing these options out there without knowing what the other GMs and then players and agents are open to doing.

Personally, I would focus on the trade route up front and UFA or trade at RHD and in net.

I would also focus on overpaying on short term deals in net and maybe at RHD and not give out any big money, 5+ year deals this off season. Especially not to any outside players that you aren't sure about how they will fit with this team.

 

[Fezzy126]

I don't expect Power to raise his stock to the level that he gets a big money contract in just 2 full seasons. If he does however that means he had some sort of Adam Fox or Cale Makar type of 2 year run. If that was to happen there is still no reason to not have Dahlin and Power anchoring the left side.

Take a look at the Rangers. They have Fox and Trouba on the right side, both on big money contracts starting next season and both playing big minutes.
Tampa has Hedman, McDonagh, and Sergachev on the left all playing big minutes and all 3 are on fairly high dollar contracts, though they are a bargain at this point but were fair value when signed.

Point is that you can have 2 top pairing D-men on the same side, both can play 25 minutes a game and can carry a pairing if they are good enough to be worth 8 - 10 million a season. If they both reach that level where they carry the pairing you plug in a relatively inexpensive partner for them who is reliable but doesn't need to be a gamebreaker. Guys like Cernak and Rutta.

Regarding the bolded, one thing you're overlooking is the impact of Power's draft position. Being a #1 overall pick will carry weight, even if Power shows moderate impacts. Look no further than Dahlin, who got $6M AAV after his play took a step back under 2 years of Krueger. Power is going to get seriously paid even he shows modest improvement from year to year based on his draft position.

In your comparison to Tampa, the one thing I think you're underrating is the standing of Samuelsson in the lineup. Right now he looks like our McDonaugh or our Vlasic. He looks like someone that will be stapled to that 2nd pair playing important minutes against tough competition.

So taking the long term look, unless Dahlin or Power start playing their off hand side, it's way more likely we have a Seth Jones situation than a Sergachev situation. A situation where our top 4 is (potentially) set long term and Power becomes a commodity that we can't afford.

Before everyone jumps on me for suggesting this, I am not an advocate of trading good players before you're forced to, so this is not me advocating for us to trade Power. I want him to play and have an impact for at least the next 3 years. It's just my own feel based on what I see from Dahlin & Samuelsson this year and how much they've grown.

 

[brian_griffin]

Regarding the bolded, one thing you're overlooking is the impact of Power's draft position. Being a #1 overall pick will carry weight, even if Power shows moderate impacts. Look no further than Dahlin, who got $6M AAV after his play took a step back under 2 years of Krueger. Power is going to get seriously paid even he shows modest improvement from year to year based on his draft position.

In your comparison to Tampa, the one thing I think you're underrating is the standing of Samuelsson in the lineup. Right now he looks like our McDonaugh or our Vlasic. He looks like someone that will be stapled to that 2nd pair playing important minutes against tough competition.

So taking the long term look, unless Dahlin or Power start playing their off hand side, it's way more likely we have a Seth Jones situation than a Sergachev situation. A situation where our top 4 is (potentially) set long term and Power becomes a commodity that we can't afford.

Before everyone jumps on me for suggesting this, I am not an advocate of trading good players before you're forced to, so this is not me advocating for us to trade Power. I want him to play and have an impact for at least the next 3 years. It's just my own feel based on what I see from Dahlin & Samuelsson this year and how much they've grown.

Just here to remind Dahlin has played both sides before.

 

[Fezzy126]

Just here to remind Dahlin has played both sides before.

Sure, but he's looked much better on the left.

 

[Jacob582]

Interesting, Granato stated that Mittlestadt is still not 100%. Also said that Olofsson's wrist is still bothering him.

 

[Zman5778]

Interesting, Granato stated that Mittlestadt is still not 100%. Also said that Olofsson's wrist is still bothering him.

Jeebus. If Mitts still isn't 100%.....what the heck is he gonna look like when he gets there? I thought he's been pretty damned impressive the last handful of games.

 

[Fjordy]

Sure, but he's looked much better on the left.

Small sample, did we see him a lot on RD? No. Have we seen him paired up with a player like Samuelsson or Bryson? No, we saw him paired with Butcher.

 

[Zman5778]

If Adams wants to make Peters and Rivet happy, he trades for Gudas and signs Gudbranson as the moves at RHD.

Hell, it'd make most of this board quite happy. We've got guys that move pucks super well. We can take a guy or two that provide physical D aside from Cobra.

 

[Chainshot]

Small sample, did we see him a lot on RD? No. Have we seen him paired up with a player like Samuelsson or Bryson? No, we saw him paired with Butcher.

We have seen him with both Bryson and Samuelsson in very small samples.

 

[Fjordy]

Regarding the bolded, one thing you're overlooking is the impact of Power's draft position. Being a #1 overall pick will carry weight, even if Power shows moderate impacts. Look no further than Dahlin, who got $6M AAV after his play took a step back under 2 years of Krueger. Power is going to get seriously paid even he shows modest improvement from year to year based on his draft position.

In your comparison to Tampa, the one thing I think you're underrating is the standing of Samuelsson in the lineup. Right now he looks like our McDonaugh or our Vlasic. He looks like someone that will be stapled to that 2nd pair playing important minutes against tough competition.

So taking the long term look, unless Dahlin or Power start playing their off hand side, it's way more likely we have a Seth Jones situation than a Sergachev situation. A situation where our top 4 is (potentially) set long term and Power becomes a commodity that we can't afford.

Before everyone jumps on me for suggesting this, I am not an advocate of trading good players before you're forced to, so this is not me advocating for us to trade Power. I want him to play and have an impact for at least the next 3 years. It's just my own feel based on what I see from Dahlin & Samuelsson this year and how much they've grown.

I don't see any problem with that, even if the left side is Dahlin, Power and Samuelsson and everyone is fine. We don't yet know how all of them will play in the coming years and what contracts they will get, we will have a ton of caps for everything, Okposo's contract will expire, Skinner's contract can be buyout favorably in a couple of years (if needed). An elite defense and a very good goaltender can do wonders in the playoffs.

 

[Fjordy]

We have seen him with both Bryson and Samuelsson in very small samples.

No, I mean specifically at the position of RD.

 

[BFLO]

If you look at teams around the league that have had lasting success, their core group has by and large been acquired through the draft and trades.

Florida has one notable big money UFA signing in Bob. And that contract has gotten Skinner contract level hate prior to this season.

Tampa's top 6 highest paid forwards are all guys they drafted and developed. They have largely used trades to build their D core around Hedman with low cost UFAs in Rutta & Bogo. And Vasy is a draft and develop guy in net.

Boston has some UFAs. But again, the bulk of their core have been guys they've drafted with some smart trades to fill in holes.

The challenge we have as fans is that we are throwing these options out there without knowing what the other GMs and then players and agents are open to doing.

Personally, I would focus on the trade route up front and UFA or trade at RHD and in net.

I would also focus on overpaying on short term deals in net and maybe at RHD and not give out any big money, 5+ year deals this off season. Especially not to any outside players that you aren't sure about how they will fit with this team.

We could really use our own version of this trade like what Tampa received (except for a RD):

New York Rangers Acquire: ​ Vladislav Namestnikov · $1,937,500 Brett Howden · $894,166 Libor Hájek · $0 (AHL/JR) 2018 1st round pick (TBL - #28 - Nils Lundkvist) 2019 2nd round pick (TBL - #58 - Karl Henriksson) [Conditional]* *Conditions: 2nd round pick becomes a 1st if Tampa wins the Stanley Cup in 2017/18 or 2018/19. Result: Tampa Bay did not win the Stanley Cup, New York will receive Tampa's 2nd round pick. Sum: $2,831,666 Change: -$4,618,334

Tampa Bay Lightning Acquire: ​ Ryan McDonagh · $4,700,000 J.T. Miller · $2,750,000 Sum: $7,450,000 Change: +$4,618,334

 

[brian_griffin]

Small sample, did we see him a lot on RD? No. Have we seen him paired up with a player like Samuelsson or Bryson? No, we saw him paired with Butcher.

We have seen him with both Bryson and Samuelsson in very small samples.

Dahlin also played right side before joining BUF.

 

[Jim Bob]

We could really use our own version of this trade like what Tampa received (except for a RD):

New York Rangers Acquire: ​ Vladislav Namestnikov · $1,937,500 Brett Howden · $894,166 Libor Hájek · $0 (AHL/JR) 2018 1st round pick (TBL - #28 - Nils Lundkvist) 2019 2nd round pick (TBL - #58 - Karl Henriksson) [Conditional]* *Conditions: 2nd round pick becomes a 1st if Tampa wins the Stanley Cup in 2017/18 or 2018/19. Result: Tampa Bay did not win the Stanley Cup, New York will receive Tampa's 2nd round pick. Sum: $2,831,666 Change: -$4,618,334

Tampa Bay Lightning Acquire: ​ Ryan McDonagh · $4,700,000 J.T. Miller · $2,750,000 Sum: $7,450,000 Change: +$4,618,334

Cirelli & Cernak would look amazing in blue & gold...

 

[Fjordy]

Cirelli & Cernak would look amazing in blue & gold...

Why are they available?

 

[Jim Bob]

Why are they available?

They probably aren't.

But, they are both RFAs after 22-23 and likely would be too expensive for TB to keep given their cap situation.

Just like TB had to lose players like JT Miller in trade and Blake Coleman as a UFA lately, TB is having the issue of losing guys because they are doing so well.

I would hope that Adams is calling TB to see who they would be open to moving this summer.

Buffalo could offer Mitts, Fitz, and futures for Cirelli & Cernak if TB wants to get cheaper at those two spots.

 

[BFLO]

Cirelli & Cernak would look amazing in blue & gold...

I think Dumba + Fiala would be a closer comparable to the original trade, with the handedness of the Dman switched to what we need. The ages of the players basically match up too.

 

[Jim Bob]

I think Dumba + Fiala would be a closer comparable to the original trade, with the handedness of the Dman switched to what we need. The ages of the players basically match up too.

Given where this team is, I would expect that Adams targets younger guys that might be pricing themselves off their current teams.

 

[Fjordy]

They probably aren't.

But, they are both RFAs after 22-23 and likely would be too expensive for TB to keep given their cap situation.

Just like TB had to lose players like JT Miller in trade and Blake Coleman as a UFA lately, TB is having the issue of losing guys because they are doing so well.

I would hope that Adams is calling TB to see who they would be open to moving this summer.

Buffalo could offer Mitts, Fitz, and futures for Cirelli & Cernak if TB wants to get cheaper at those two spots.

I would have thought that they would replace older players (Palat/Killorn) than Cirelli and Cernak. We also know players are constantly taking contract discounts in Tampa.

 

[Jim Bob]

I would have thought that they would replace older players than Cirelli and Cernak. We also know players are constantly taking contract discounts in Tampa.

It doesn't seem like Point or Vasy took discounts.

I expect Cirelli & Cernak to want to get paid next summer.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

It doesn't seem like Point or Vasy took discounts.

I expect Cirelli & Cernak to want to get paid next summer.

I just figure they'll let Palat walk this summer, and Killorn walk next summer.