HF Habs: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[Estimated_Prophet]

The problem is that this logic is flawed. If the Habs got 1st overall last year would they not have drafted Connor Bedard? Afterall he is 5'10, they would have gone with Carlsson or Fantilli, right?

The real flaw in the logic is that all teams prefer size and the sample size is minuscule from a statistics standpoint when looking at Hughes/Gorton. Like every hockey person who is not entirely foolish, they prefer size but they clearly do not use it as an absolute as is clearly illustrated by drafting Mesar, Hutson and trading for Newhook and prioritizing Harris over much larger options.

Any attempt to reach a strong assertion that this management group values size any more than any other organization is an exercise in confirmation bias and can be disregarded.

 

[JeffreyLFC]

The real flaw in the logic is that all teams prefer size and the sample size is minuscule from a statistics standpoint when looking at Hughes/Gorton. Like every hockey person who is not entirely foolish, they prefer size but they clearly do not use it as an absolute as drafting Mesar, Hutson and trading for Newhook and prioritizing Harris over much larger options.

Any attempt to reach a strong assertion that this management group values size any more than any other organization is an exercise in confirmation bias and can be disregarded.

Or like last year, they drafted 3 goaltenders, does it mean they put more emphasis on drafting goaltenders and we should expect them to do the same this year.

 

[Kent Nilsson]

The problem is that this logic is flawed. If the Habs got 1st overall last year would they not have drafted Connor Bedard? Afterall he is 5'10, they would have gone with Carlsson or Fantilli, right?

Or like last year, they drafted 3 goaltenders, does it mean they put more emphasis on drafting goaltenders and we should expect them to do the same this year.

I think le sean has brought a fair case for his argument that deserves better than such strawman responses.

 

[Goldenhands]

I think Helenius could play right now 3C in the NHL but for his development if the Habs want to contend for a playoff spot I d play him 1st line and PP in Laval.

I would play him 1 yr with Laval as well, all situations.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

I think le sean has brought a fair case for his argument that deserves better than such strawman responses.

It was a very poor argument despite what you may think of the response.

 

[JeffreyLFC]

I think le sean has brought a fair case for his argument that deserves better than such strawman responses.

Let me re-phrase it if you have not gotten the message. In bold letter too.

"Every team in the NHL want the most talented player and always has favored large sized player, this is not a revelation nor a Bobrov and/or Lapointe trait, it's obvious, and it applies for ALL teams, that does not mean the Habs (or any other team) are not willing to draft smaller sized player if they are talented and considered the best talent available"

Le Sean is claiming the Habs will only draft a large sized player in the top 10 because of their previous draft pattern, this is flawed because they were no clear BPA that was under 6' at any point, if the Habs have a player they REALLY love but he is only 5'9 I have zero doubt in my mind they will draft him just like they would have drafted Bedard last year if available.

Is it more clear? less strawman responses for you?

Catton might be not drafted in the top 10, but if one team believe he is by far the most talented they will draft him, this is the reality.

Chicago had no problem drafting Bedard or Kane. Pittsburgh had no problem drafting Crosby. New Jersey had no problem drafting Jack Hughes. Montreal had no problem drafting Caufield. It's always about talent not size.

 

[morhilane]

Not going to rain on everybody's parade but what if Lindstrom is not a true top 6 and he is more in the Lawson Crouse mold. Still a NHL player but not the great offensive talent you wish to draft in the top 5.

Which forward do you think should go higher than Lindstrom outside of Celebrini and Demidov?

 

[JeffreyLFC]

Which forward do you think should go higher than Lindstrom outside of Celebrini and Demidov?

Not a fan but I would not be surprised if Helenius is drafted higher than Lindstrom. Personally, I do rate Catton and Connelly higher than Lindstrom but I have little doubt that Lindstrom will be drafted higher than both unless they (NHL teams) find very serious potential recurrent injury with him.

 

[montreal]

I think le sean has brought a fair case for his argument that deserves better than such strawman responses.

It makes no sense at all. Not a single person on this board can say who is calling the shots on what picks. No one knows what Hughes is going to do as GM just because of who Gorton drafted, that's f***ing nuts. All GMs value size but that doesn't mean you can say for sure they will or won't take players based off that.

In 2 drafts Hughes has picked, Hutson, Mesar, Eriksson, Konyushkov, Rohrer, Guindon, Tourigny, Mittelstadt, that's out 8 of 20 picks. So 40% of all of Hughes picks so far are sub 6'0 and 60% are 6'0 or taller. Do those #'s mean anything, can anyone say for sure they will or won't pick someone based off that track record? Is Jeff Gorton calling the shots, is he sitting on his hands? Who knows but to suggest someone knows who they will or won't take when there are so many factors that none of us can even know about.

 

[Sorinth]

It’s not ludicrous when the draft capital is worth that much more. Of course you can gamble later on in the draft, but when the picks are most important, they go for size.

That's your counter argument? Lafreniere? Then remove him because he was the consensus 1st overall pick. So that’s 9 of 11 picks, eliminating the consensus BPA when they picked 1st overall. No definitely no trend there.

Size doesn't mean less risk. If they are being risk adverse with their top picks they wouldn't have gone for a guy like Kratzov who was the epitome of high risk high reward.

And for the record it's not just Lafreniere, Kakko was also the consensus top pick at his spot, and like with Laf the guy picked right after him was the bigger at 6'5 (Our very own Kirby Dach). With Lias Anderson, the guy picked 2 spots after him was 6'6 Michael Rasmussen. So if anything with the NYR's top picks they passed on the bigger player 3 out of 4 times. So yeah the trend is that they don't go for size with their top picks.

As for the rest of the names, they aren't even high picks which is where you are claiming that they care about size.

 

[Jabba11]

I would play him 1 yr with Laval as well, all situations.

What do you think of Helenius high end upside? Does he have what it takes to be a 1C rather than 2C?

 

[Goldenhands]

What do you think of Helenius high end upside? Does he have what it takes to be a 1C rather than 2C?

He has everything to become a really solid top 6, I see him as a 70-80 pts player who brings more than scoring alone, kid has an insane motor, fantastic hockey IQ and competes level, fantastic skater too. He is a gamer all over the ice and always gives the extra effort on every play. He can play both center or wing. I like him better than Cooley.

 

[Jabba11]

He has everything to become a really solid top 6, I see him as a 70-80 pts player who brings more than scoring alone, kid has an insane motor, fantastic hockey IQ and competes level, fantastic skater too. He is a gamer all over the ice and always gives the extra effort on every play. He can play both center or wing. I like him better than Cooley.

Then if our scouting team sees him the same way, there is no reason to not pick him at our pick. 70-80pts is near elite. Suzuki was the first to score 75+ pts since Kovalev in 2010. That's 14 years ago or so.

Helenius is definitely more responsbile than Cooley, I think his anticipation of plays is better than Cooley. Cooley is definitely more skilled and more flashy and dynamic but Helenius's dynamic skills are mostly through his overall anticipation of the game IMO. He seems one step ahead of the play. He's creating more than reacting on plays.

 

[Ezpz]

Ok draft Saku's son. Don't care what round.

 

[The Last Red]

Then if our scouting team sees him the same way, there is no reason to not pick him at our pick. 70-80pts is near elite. Suzuki was the first to score 75+ pts since Kovalev in 2010. That's 14 years ago or so.

Helenius is definitely more responsbile than Cooley, I think his anticipation of plays is better than Cooley. Cooley is definitely more skilled and more flashy and dynamic but Helenius's dynamic skills are mostly through his overall anticipation of the game IMO. He seems one step ahead of the play. He's creating more than reacting on plays.

Well if they think there are better options than him when they pick that’s a reason not to pick him. I have no interest in him in the top 8. Most projections I’ve seen of him are middle 6 forward. Doesn’t mean they’ll be right . . .

 

[Goldenhands]

Then if our scouting team sees him the same way, there is no reason to not pick him at our pick. 70-80pts is near elite. Suzuki was the first to score 75+ pts since Kovalev in 2010. That's 14 years ago or so.

Helenius is definitely more responsbile than Cooley, I think his anticipation of plays is better than Cooley. Cooley is definitely more skilled and more flashy and dynamic but Helenius's dynamic skills are mostly through his overall anticipation of the game IMO. He seems one step ahead of the play. He's creating more than reacting on plays.

Cooley is flashy, but I wouldnt say more skilled.

 

[Jabba11]

Well if they think there are better options than him when they pick that’s a reason not to pick him. I have no interest in him in the top 8. Most projections I’ve seen of him are middle 6 forward. Doesn’t mean they’ll be right . . .

Projections/Consensus don't mean anything anymore. We've learned that the hard way last year and something to always consider. You can project a guy like Dmitry Simashev 19th on central scouting services last year and he ended up going 6th overall.

 

[McGees]

Well time to draft some more D.
lol listening to Snake talk to Marinaro about the D.
Mailloulx is a 6
Barron, Struble, are 7-8
And Harris is out of league in 3 years.
Damn.

 

[McGuires Corndog]

Well time to draft some more D.
lol listening to Snake talk to Marinaro about the D.
Mailloulx is a 6
Barron, Struble, are 7-8
And Harris is out of league in 3 years.
Damn.

Snake is a moron. That may even be a compliment.

 

[Michoulicious]

Snake is a moron. That may even be a compliment.

Still has an eye for talent, gotta give him that. Had Makar #1, Stutzle #1... Was a big Skinner fan before most.

And he can admit when he's wrong (Nishushkin lloooll). I like him actually, even if I am sometimes irritated by his attitude. It is more a character than anything I discovered. He is quite funny in his own way.

He has better NHL prospects insights that 99% of so called experts. Really like his podcast with Brunet "Processus" on Youtube. It is in french, but awesome if you like NHL prospects talk.

 

[GlassesJacketShirt]

Well time to draft some more D.
lol listening to Snake talk to Marinaro about the D.
Mailloulx is a 6
Barron, Struble, are 7-8
And Harris is out of league in 3 years.
Damn.

Think he's a little rough on most, but even I have to agree that Harris exemplifies empty calories.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Lindstrom will definetely be available at 5.

At 6? i'm not so sure.

As for Demidov, i agree we would need to win 2nd lottery.

What's interesting though is if he is available at 3 or 4, i wonder if HuGo tries to move up from 5-6 OA to 3-4OA, using Winnipeg's 1st. I know I would do it.

I don’t think anything is definite in this draft. It’s all over the place.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Well, top 8 secured, and most likely picking 6th unless Arizona gets a point tomorrow.

Assuming they dont:

1. San Jose: Celebrini
2. Chicago: Levshunov
3. Anaheim: Buium or Dickinson or Lindstrom
4. Columbus: Buium, Dickinson or Silayev
5. Arizona: Lindstrom, Silayev or Buium or Dickinson
6. Montreal: Demidov, Lindstrom or Iginla

Yes, I'm predicting Montreal gets Demidov.

 

[Mrb1p]

Well, top 8 secured, and most likely picking 6th unless Arizona gets a point tomorrow.

Assuming they dont:

1. San Jose: Celebrini
2. Chicago: Levshunov
3. Anaheim: Buium or Dickinson or Lindstrom
4. Columbus: Buium, Dickinson or Silayev
5. Arizona: Lindstrom, Silayev or Buium or Dickinson
6. Montreal: Demidov, Lindstrom or Iginla

Yes, I'm predicting Montreal gets Demidov.

Wishful thinking at best rip

 

[Andrei79]

McCagg has Parekh above Levshunov and doesn't seem to think too highly of Artem.

Well, top 8 secured, and most likely picking 6th unless Arizona gets a point tomorrow.

Assuming they dont:

1. San Jose: Celebrini
2. Chicago: Levshunov
3. Anaheim: Buium or Dickinson or Lindstrom
4. Columbus: Buium, Dickinson or Silayev
5. Arizona: Lindstrom, Silayev or Buium or Dickinson
6. Montreal: Demidov, Lindstrom or Iginla

Yes, I'm predicting Montreal gets Demidov.

Columbus is who I don't trust. But maybe having Gaudreau on a long term deal they'll go for size with Lindstrom to go along Fantilli.