GDT: 2023 NHL Free Agency Frenzy

[YippieKaey]

not gonna be this year. possibly the next

Oh ye of little faith.

 

[StrikingDistance]

We don’t need to lose either of you posting here!

The StrikingDistance HFchatbot appreciates your appreciation.

 

[Kalopsia]

I might be missing something, in all honesty. Couldn't Ottawa have kept DeBrincat for the season and traded him at the deadline? They had the cap space.

They traded him within the division, to the exact team that they are going to compete for a playoff spot with, for a mediocre return.

Well to start, no, they don't have the cap space. Stutzle's 8x8.35M contract just kicked in, so right now they've got 5M in cap space with 11F, 7D, and 2G and they still need to re-sign Pinto. DeBrincat's qualifying offer is 1 year, 9M. Just to sign him they'd need to shed salary now off a team that's trying to contend and doesn't have any bad contracts, then to move him at the deadline they'd have to hope that there's a contending team who can afford him. Even with full retention that's a really tough cap hit to move in-season. They probably wouldn't get much more than they just got from Detroit, they'd leave a huge hole in their lineup, and they'd spend the whole season holding their breath hoping he doesn't get hurt, in which case they can't trade him and they lose him for nothing. All in all, it wasn't an option. They had to trade him, and he made sure Detroit was the only team they could send him to.

 

[HTFN]

Well to start, no, they don't have the cap space. Stutzle's 8x8.35M contract just kicked in, so right now they've got 5M in cap space with 11F, 7D, and 2G and they still need to re-sign Pinto. DeBrincat's qualifying offer is 1 year, 9M. Just to sign him they'd need to shed salary now off a team that's trying to contend and doesn't have any bad contracts, then to move him at the deadline they'd have to hope that there's a contending team who can afford him. Even with full retention that's a really tough cap hit to move in-season. They probably wouldn't get much more than they just got from Detroit, they'd leave a huge hole in their lineup, and they'd spend the whole season holding their breath hoping he doesn't get hurt, in which case they can't trade him and they lose him for nothing. All in all, it wasn't an option. They had to trade him, and he made sure Detroit was the only team they could send him to.

Yep, his ridiculous QO basically gave him something between trade protection and an accelerated path to free agency, since nobody's taking the risk on him at that price without extension talk. He could be moved anywhere but it doesn't sound like there were a lot of teams with 9m laying around ready to roll the dice (and trade assets) just to walk DeBrincat to market, Ottawa least of all.

If I remember the rules correctly the only teams that could get him for less are the ones he's willing to negotiate with instead of taking the QO, which... pretty much just sounded like Detroit. For everyone else, it's basically just can you pay for and fit one 9m year of DeBrincat and hope to convince him to stay?

That's also why the trade was in-conference, rental types incentivize return value over where you move the player because once they hit the market they can go anywhere. If you have lots of options you can minimize the risk to you, but if a guy is saying "I plan on being in ____ next year and would like to go there" you aren't really saving yourself for very long anyway.

 

[Empty Goal Net]

I imagine that under Ted's explicit or understood direction, Caps promo staff is already sketching out a "Path to 895" marketing strategy. Plans anticipate that Nick, TJ, and JC (at the very least) will be among the players swarming out to congratulate the greatest goal scorer in NHL history - hence none of them can be moved. Giveaways, alumni appearances (no doubt including Brian Willsie and Chris Clark), a celebration night prior to a home match. Selling fan affinity for players > Fielding the best possible team (even tho' in most situations a more competitive team ---> more butts in seats). BMac ain't going anywhere soon.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

I imagine that under Ted's explicit or understood direction, Caps promo staff is already sketching out a "Path to 895" marketing strategy. Plans anticipate that Nick, TJ, and JC (at the very least) will be among the players swarming out to congratulate the greatest goal scorer in NHL history - hence none of them can be moved. Giveaways, alumni appearances (no doubt including Brian Willsie and Chris Clark), a celebration night prior to a home match. Selling fan affinity for players > Fielding the best possible team (even tho' in most situations a more competitive team ---> more butts in seats). BMac ain't going anywhere soon.

I would rather be trying to compete…sigh but sadly you’re probably right.

 

[crazy8888]

I imagine that under Ted's explicit or understood direction, Caps promo staff is already sketching out a "Path to 895" marketing strategy. Plans anticipate that Nick, TJ, and JC (at the very least) will be among the players swarming out to congratulate the greatest goal scorer in NHL history - hence none of them can be moved. Giveaways, alumni appearances (no doubt including Brian Willsie and Chris Clark), a celebration night prior to a home match. Selling fan affinity for players > Fielding the best possible team (even tho' in most situations a more competitive team ---> more butts in seats). BMac ain't going anywhere soon.

I previously disagreed with several posters that are under the impression that current plan is to get Ovi to 895 and nothing else. Besides the fact that none of these posters were able to give any proof as to what moves were made that were specifically designed to A. get Ovi closer to 895 and B. Have no correlation to the teams overall performance thus rendering this team a bottom feeder with no chance of contending. But i gotta say the post above really takes the cake here. Forget the whole 895 and playoff thing, now we are assuming that the team is keeping players around solely for the purpose of being there to celebrate 895 on the ice? Man thats reaching, even for HF standards.

Any team or company in general would be smart to plan ahead for an event that will generate so much attention and revenue. This is business and the more money it generates the healthier it is.
It would be dumb for them to sit with thumbs up their asses and wait until 894 before they start placing memorabilia orders.

In my opinion if the team was so concerned with 895 and nothing else they would have hired Boudreau again and let them team run and gun the next few years, the hell with wins or losses.

 

[Calicaps]

I previously disagreed with several posters that are under the impression that current plan is to get Ovi to 895 and nothing else. Besides the fact that none of these posters were able to give any proof as to what moves were made that were specifically designed to A. get Ovi closer to 895 and B. Have no correlation to the teams overall performance thus rendering this team a bottom feeder with no chance of contending. But i gotta say the post above really takes the cake here. Forget the whole 895 and playoff thing, now we are assuming that the team is keeping players around solely for the purpose of being there to celebrate 895 on the ice? Man thats reaching, even for HF standards.

Any team or company in general would be smart to plan ahead for an event that will generate so much attention and revenue. This is business and the more money it generates the healthier it is.
It would be dumb for them to sit with thumbs up their asses and wait until 894 before they start placing memorabilia orders.

In my opinion if the team was so concerned with 895 and nothing else they would have hired Boudreau again and let them team run and gun the next few years, the hell with wins or losses.

This so much. But also, a roster that's good at offense is better for both 895 and overall competitiveness. So this idea that they're supporting Ovie's push at the expense of trying to compete is weird anyway.

 

[Empty Goal Net]

I previously disagreed with several posters that are under the impression that current plan is to get Ovi to 895 and nothing else.

Suggesting that getting Ovie to 895 is the prime directive is not the same as saying "nothing else" matters. And I think you know that.

Marketing focuses on 19, 77, 74 and Kuemper. Here's their STH promo image:

In my opinion if the team was so concerned with 895 and nothing else they would have hired Boudreau again and let them team run and gun the next few years, the hell with wins or losses.

count me in

 

[crazy8888]

This so much. But also, a roster that's good at offense is better for both 895 and overall competitiveness. So this idea that they're supporting Ovie's push at the expense of trying to compete is weird anyway.

Yes exactly. I dont get the idea why one has to be at the expense of the other. A solid team is good for Ovi. Ovi scoring is good for the team. This formula never changed. I think its just misplaced anger and needing someone to blame for everything. Its like we cant just have a bad year or a bad stretch. No there is gotta be someone to blame. Someone must be making us suck on purpose.

 

[EroCaps]

I would be shocked at how blatantly they’re mortgaging the future of the team for an individual record but Leonsis has never impressed me.

I hope he doesn’t get the Nats.

 

[HTFN]

I would be shocked at how blatantly they’re mortgaging the future of the team for an individual record but Leonsis has never impressed me.

I hope he doesn’t get the Nats.

By doing what?

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Yes exactly. I dont get the idea why one has to be at the expense of the other. A solid team is good for Ovi. Ovi scoring is good for the team. This formula never changed. I think its just misplaced anger and needing someone to blame for everything. Its like we cant just have a bad year or a bad stretch. No there is gotta be someone to blame. Someone must be making us suck on purpose.

Agreed.

Devils advocate though, intent is immaterial to results. If you have objectives and key results in business and you don’t meet them; whether you tried hard or not to meet them isn’t typically a factor. You either meet them or you don’t. Now, I have no idea internally what their actual objectives were last year, I assume one was to make the playoffs, they didn’t succeed. Did BMac try to have the team miss the playoffs? Of course not. That would be a silly thug to say. There were many factors he couldn’t control last season. I guess all I’m saying is “trying hard” is not typically how one measures success in business; let alone a pro sports team. <steps off soap box>

 

[HTFN]

Agreed.

Devils advocate though, intent is immaterial to results. If you have objectives and key results in business and you don’t meet them; whether you tried hard or not to meet them isn’t typically a factor. You either meet them or you don’t. Now, I have no idea internally what their actual objectives were last year, I assume one was to make the playoffs, they didn’t succeed. Did BMac try to have the team miss the playoffs? Of course not. That would be a silly thug to say. There were many factors he couldn’t control last season. I guess all I’m saying is “trying hard” is not typically how one measures success in business; let alone a pro sports team. <steps off soap box>

But it's not "trying hard" it's "pushing the right buttons".

Like... Jim Rutherford made crazy dingus trades, was often reactionary, would give assets to trade players he had recently acquired and just kind of shuffled deck chairs for a while, and then some of the best players on the planet won him playoff games and Cups. He depleted their cabinet, lost value for trades quite often, made some bad signings they'd have to punt on (go back to losing trade value), and really rode having two of the best players on the planet not being headcases like some of ours are.

Cups or not we'd be completely f***ed up the wall if Jim Rutherford came in here to replace GMBM because I don't think he actually pushes the right buttons. His process-to-success scenario always seems to look something like somebody stumbling in the dark looking for their car keys.

"Trying hard" is underselling it, you're managing a franchise. You have all the tools and all the control: you look at the short/medium/long term hopes and weight their value then act accordingly. Caps don't have an awesome short term but they do have some chance at a quality mid-term (say like, Ovechkin's last two-ish years?). This game, especially since you're trading with people and negotiating with agents, is basically poker. You have to know which hands to be in on and the Caps have some inadequate cards right now to really go all-in.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

But it's not "trying hard" it's "pushing the right buttons".

Like... Jim Rutherford made crazy dingus trades, was often reactionary, would give assets to trade players he had recently acquired and just kind of shuffled deck chairs for a while, and then some of the best players on the planet won him playoff games and Cups. He depleted their cabinet, lost value for trades quite often, made some bad signings they'd have to punt on (go back to losing trade value), and really rode having two of the best players on the planet not being headcases like some of ours are.

Cups or not we'd be completely f***ed up the wall if Jim Rutherford came in here to replace GMBM because I don't think he actually pushes the right buttons. His process-to-success scenario always seems to look something like somebody stumbling in the dark looking for their car keys.

"Trying hard" is underselling it, you're managing a franchise. You have all the tools and all the control: you look at the short/medium/long term hopes and weight their value then act accordingly. Caps don't have an awesome short term but they do have some chance at a quality mid-term (say like, Ovechkin's last two-ish years?). This game, especially since you're trading with people and negotiating with agents, is basically poker. You have to know which hands to be in on and the Caps have some inadequate cards right now to really go all-in.

I agree. They are currently in a damned if you do and damned if you don’t situation. Right now it feels in the immediate future they should get to camp and see how things shake out. Who is healthy, who can take the next step, etc

 

[usiel]

I would be shocked at how blatantly they’re mortgaging the future of the team for an individual record but Leonsis has never impressed me.

I hope he doesn’t get the Nats.

Doesn't anyone want the Nationals with the MASN boat anchor around their necks?

 

[crazy8888]

I

Agreed.

Devils advocate though, intent is immaterial to results. If you have objectives and key results in business and you don’t meet them; whether you tried hard or not to meet them isn’t typically a factor. You either meet them or you don’t. Now, I have no idea internally what their actual objectives were last year, I assume one was to make the playoffs, they didn’t succeed. Did BMac try to have the team miss the playoffs? Of course not. That would be a silly thug to say. There were many factors he couldn’t control last season. I guess all I’m saying is “trying hard” is not typically how one measures success in business; let alone a pro sports team. <steps off soap box>

You can apply this logic to everything in life. We try, we fail, we try again. You are right, results are all that matter at the end. But the harder you work the better chance you have of succeeding and achieving the results you wanted. So yea the Caps organization obviously know that they have an asset that no other team has and probably will never have. They will use this asset to their advantage. And they should. You cant even call this a once in a lifetime achievement. This could very well be the last time anyone comes close to this unless some very drastic changes are made to the league/rules etc...

As for last season no i dont think they were planning to miss the playoffs and draft this high. I think they were overconfident because of how the season before went and how good the team dealt with injuries. They probably thought injection of youth would carry them along until Wilson and Backstrom came back. But there were additional injuries, youth either underperformed when given the chance or was not given the chance in favor of vets that were playing like garbage. Anyway im sure anyone can come up with 20+ reasons why the season didint work out but i dont think that Caps started this year as lets say a team like the Ducks of Hawks where it was pretty much known at the beggining that those teams were going to be bottom feeders.

Im more interested in knowing what the plans are for the upcoming season. Roster is still vet heavy yet they have young guys that are ready or almost ready to make the team if given an opportunity. I wonder if management is pretty much banking on the fact that some of these vets are most certainly going to be injured at some point. Something like Snively gets his games when Oshie has his annual 20-30 days on injured reserve. Mcmichael can have the games that Backstrom misses once hip issues flare up. Melenstyn can get his games in when Mantha is injured or benched.

 

[g00n]

HF Caps new logo

 

[HTFN]

I agree. They are currently in a damned if you do and damned if you don’t situation. Right now it feels in the immediate future they should get to camp and see how things shake out. Who is healthy, who can take the next step, etc

Only from a fan happiness perspective. I don't think their position as an organization is damned if they don't right now.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I think we should have a 2 year plan. We have to clear the contracts of the old core Kuz Mantha Backstom and Oshie. That will pretty much give us the chance to make big splash moves in trade or FA.

In the mean time we should try to get the highest picks we can. 2 more top 10 picks and maybe some lottery luck. We could have the young up and coming team lead by record goal scorer Ovie and tons of cap space.

Call it a retool or rebuild. This should be the plan

 

[Capitals40]

I think we should have a 2 year plan. We have to clear the contracts of the old core Kuz Mantha Backstom and Oshie. That will pretty much give use the chance to make big splash moves in trade or FA.

In the mean time we should try to get the highest picks we can. 2 more top 10 picks and maybe some lottery luck. We could have the young up and coming team lead by record goal scorer Ovie and tons of cap space.

Call it a retool or rebuild. This should be the plan

This. I'm hoping this is what Mac does if a trade doesn't truly help the team

 

[Calicaps]

HF Caps new logo

View attachment 730102

HfCaren

 

[Random schmoe]

As of now they're projected to have $52M in cap space in the final year of Ovechkin's contract and $81M the following season.

Which also happens to be when McDavid is scheduled to be a free agent.

I can dream right?

 

[trick9]

I think we should have a 2 year plan. We have to clear the contracts of the old core Kuz Mantha Backstom and Oshie. That will pretty much give us the chance to make big splash moves in trade or FA.

In the mean time we should try to get the highest picks we can. 2 more top 10 picks and maybe some lottery luck. We could have the young up and coming team lead by record goal scorer Ovie and tons of cap space.

Call it a retool or rebuild. This should be the plan

We do have a plan. We've had it for years already. These are the expiring contracts.

2024 summer:

Wilson (gone/extended)
Mantha (gone/traded before)
Edmundson (gone/extended)
Backstrom (possible retirement)

2025 summer:

Backstrom (gone/retirement)
Kuznetsov (gone/traded before)
Oshie (gone/retirement)
Dowd (gone/extended)

Roster after those contracts expire:

Ovechkin - Strome - Wilson(/X)
X - X - X
Milano - X - X
X - X - X

Fehervary - Carlson
Sandin - Jensen
TvR - X

Kuemper

Then after the 2026 summer:

Ovechkin (plays if he wants to)
Milano (gone/extended)
Carlson (gone/retirement)
Jensen (gone/retirement)
TvR (gone/extended)

This is the roster signed beyond that:

X - Strome - Wilson(/X)
X - X - X
X - X - X
X - X - X

X - X
X - X
X - X

Kuemper

Fill the roster with prospects and RFA's however you like, but that's a lot of cap space. How you decide to spend that cap space will determine how long the rebuild is going to be. Unless we hit nail on with some of our future picks, the plan should be to load up on picks and target Michael Misa and Gavin McKenna to take the torch from Ovechkin.

 

[RedRocking]

As of now they're projected to have $52M in cap space in the final year of Ovechkin's contract and $81M the following season.

Which also happens to be when McDavid is scheduled to be a free agent.

I can dream right?

The Oilers situation is going to be fascinating as both McDavid and Drai will need new deals in 2025. With the cap going up, and Matthews apparently closing in on 13.5M AAV for his new deal, will McDavid command something north of 16M?

And how much less should Draisaitl then have to take? (he’s the better playoff performer after all). I don’t see why he should get any less than Matthews (arguably should get more). So maybe McDrai combine for something north of 30M - which would be wild.

Will either take a home town discount? Or maybe one will be fed up with the Oilers’ FO and want out?

With a team like Vegas following the direction of the league and winning with a deep top 9 (perhaps aided by cap shenanigans), will the Oilers be viable contenders if they commit that much of their cap to two guys?