GDT: 2023 NHL Free Agency Frenzy

[HTFN]

I’ve been convinced that Eichel probably wasn’t a viable option. Good posts @Jags and @HTFN . Consider my mind changed on the matter.

Just for clarity I’m not calling for MacLellan’s head or anything. But I think he could have been more aggressive in making substantial changes to the core. I think they could have sold high on Kuznetsov after 2022. I think their current situation with Mantha was foreseeable if they looked a bit harder at his personality and Laviolette’s.

It’s impossible to know what moves were available for sure, but as mentioned earlier it is a results based business. We don’t give players awards for effort. Shouldn’t we be just as critical of management?

Although I think there is such thing as rewarding players for effort, both regular work effort (which applies less to GMs) but also process related effort. I used Pittsburgh as a comparison earlier but both teams have had virtually identical results lately, but GMBM didn't trade an entire cabinet of picks and prospects to sell out over the last few years and fix mistakes. So results matter, but process matters too.

Honestly the simplest way to put it might be a baseball metaphor. Two guys can both go 2 for 10, but I trust the guy who keeps barreling balls into fielded territory over the guy with the high whiff rate. There's batting average and expected batting average, and that's all down to the process over results. If you can look at a move and say "yeah that's a good idea more times than not" it's probably still a good move.

Sometimes you think you hit a home run and get caught out anyway, results rarely stay perfect, analyzing the process matters a little too.

 

[Brian23]

The Mantha trade?

The one you thought was only probably a slight overpay in a cap flat year still reeling form COVID?

For the record, this was how I responded to the Mantha trade and I'm one of the few who seem to be willing to defend him in his current state.

 

[RedRocking]

Like....?

There is a middle ground here, where GMBM isn’t some terrible GM that needs to be fired - but has still made some questionable/bad moves in recent years.

Like Siegs, Stephenson, and the Mantha trade. Some iffy FA signings in Schultz, and Hagelin. And even the JE move he just made.

Plus drafting (I suppose this is mostly on Mahoney) - it’s hard to find impact players in the 20’s, but man you’d hope they’d hit on someone. Fever is the only recent draftee to become a roster player, and may end up as a replacement level 3rd pairing guy. Protas has almost graduated I guess.

Obviously still lots TBD in this area, but I’m not necessarily seeing top 6 guys in CMM/Lappy. But ofc there’s promise in Miro, Suzy, Iorio, Chesley.

Anyways, all GMs make bad moves, and without re-litigating all this stuff, many of them could be rationalized at the time. But, BMac’s post-Cup record has been far from spotless.

 

[traparatus]

That's just patently not true, and just looking out "oh, they were worse" is such an awful way to evaluate anyone in a process orientated field.

Simply, if you gave the 2021 Capitals Keumper and Charlie as their backstop instead of Vanecek and Samsonov (and I'm actually a big Samsonov supporter, another Lavi killer) that team is easily into the 2nd round. I don't know if they beat Tampa, but they certainly have a shot.

Well, first off they didn't trade for Strome so already not batting 1.000. But even if we keep that list to only top/super useful players both Jensen and Kempney are staring at you in the face.

That's ignoring the truly useful players acquried in trade like Mojo and/or Hagelin. Hell, Connor Brown was a great trade that went to shit cause he got hurt. But yeah, him blowing his ACL 2 or 3 games in was all GMBM's fault obviously.


View attachment 729463

Once again, there would have been riots in the proverbial streets if GMBM had let Kuzy, Backstrom, or Oshie walk away when he did.

Jeez, the apologist brigade is so nitpicky. He signed Strome. Happy now?

Once again, I'm talking about the period after 20-21 season. Obviously, the Cup winning team deserved a chance to come back and do it again. I also never said a thing about Backstrom. I must have said 20 times how that deal was completely unavoidable and I've never critized BMac for anything that has to do with Backstrom.

Kuznetsov, Oshie, Eller, Mantha fiasco. Riot in the streets my ass. Fanbase would have been fine. I'll throw the moronic Schultz deal into the pile. Funny to read how handcuffed BMac was by the cap situation. Well, don't spend $6.75 m on Schultz and Hagelin and you won't be so handcuffed.

 

[Brian23]

Like Siegs, Stephenson, and the Mantha trade. Some iffy FA signings in Schultz, and Hagelin. And even the JE move he just made.

Siegs is probably the only one of these that is indefensible, but Stephenson was awful his last year with us and took over a year to get it going in Vegas. The Mantha trade, that I again hated, was widely thought of as a good move.

Confirmed with Link: - Caps trade for Mantha for Vrana, Panik, 2021 1st, 22 2nd

Well....That happened. I don't know how to feel...

forums.hfboards.com

Schultz was a fine signing, how else were we going to fill our 2RD or 3RD spot that year? RD's hard hard to come by and we had none in the pipeline with Bowey busting, so all it cost us was a little money. Hagelin was a trade, not a FA signing, and he almost single handedly fixed our PK when he first showed up. Overpaid? Maybe a bit, but he had a 25 point season that year and looked like he was probably good for 20+ points a year for awhile. They've had success with moves like that before (Connolly, Sprong, Sheary, etc.). Those guys obviously were more offensively minded, but the logic runs the same.

Plus drafting (I suppose this is mostly on Mahoney) - it’s hard to find impact players in the 20’s, but man you’d hope they’d hit on someone.

I don't entirely disagree, they had a few years where they just drafted a carbon copy of the same player over and over again and hit on nothing, but I still contend their talent was not bad. We just came up on a span of time where we had traded the draft capital for veterans prior and had a heavily veteran team that was basically impossible to graduate into. It wasn't until this year that we actually had openings to graduate and the coaching staff/front office refused to do it. Now, I blame Lavi, but you can blame who you want but prior they just didn't have the room.

Kuznetsov, Oshie, Eller, Mantha fiasco.

You don't win the cup without those first 3, and as I linked above, the Mantha "fiasco" is revisionism for most people. So if you wanted to unload them then good job, we don't have a Stanley Cup to hold up.

As for Mantha, he was also absolutey a good player for half the year here, but people want to act as if he didn't deserve to even sniff the air at Capital One which is just wrong. Let's maybe wait and see when we don't have a HC sabotaging a player.

 

[HTFN]

Jeez, the apologist brigade is so nitpicky. He signed Strome. Happy now?

Once again, I'm talking about the period after 20-21 season. Obviously, the Cup winning team deserved a chance to come back and do it again. I also never said a thing about Backstrom. I must have said 20 times how that deal was completely unavoidable and I've never critized BMac for anything that has to do with Backstrom.

Kuznetsov, Oshie, Eller, Mantha fiasco. Riot in the streets my ass. Fanbase would have been fine. I'll throw the moronic Schultz deal into the pile. Funny to read how handcuffed BMac was by the cap situation. Well, don't spend $6.75 m on Schultz and Hagelin and you won't be so handcuffed.

So now we're right back to "what was the move" and all the options you've given so far have been impractical. You're howling at the wind.

 

[Brian23]

So now we're right back to "what was the move" and all the options you've given so far have been impractical. You're howling at the wind.

I feel like people just can't grasp this.

 

[Chokingdogs]

Coulda had Getzlaf!

 

[895]

The one you thought was only probably a slight overpay in a cap flat year still reeling form COVID?

View attachment 729489

For the record, this was how I responded to the Mantha trade and I'm one of the few who seem to be willing to defend him in his current state.

View attachment 729490

It was an overpay plus he was the one who put himself in a bad cap situation with Panik to begin with.

He basically wasted a 1st and a 2nd for nothing.

 

[Brian23]

It was an overpay plus he was the one who put himself in a bad cap situation with Panik to begin with.

He basically wasted a 1st and a 2nd for nothing.

So just a good ole appearence of Captain Hindsight.

Even you, yourself, said at the time it was at most a 2nd rounder value of "overpay" for a player that, presumably, Lavi was actually going to want to play. The difference between Mantha and Vrana was an apples to apples difference.

The Panik signing end up being a bad signing, but it was lauded when he was signed. The process was right. No one expected him to just forget how to play hockey. Him being unloaded was complicated and compounded upon the global pandemic that did, and has, completely locked the salary cap even for the last 3 or 4 years.

 

[Langway]

Although I think there is such thing as rewarding players for effort, both regular work effort (which applies less to GMs) but also process related effort. I used Pittsburgh as a comparison earlier but both teams have had virtually identical results lately, but GMBM didn't trade an entire cabinet of picks and prospects to sell out over the last few years and fix mistakes. So results matter, but process matters too.

Does it, though? Does Vegas suggest that? Ideally teams would be fully self-sustaining but it's all about winning. Vegas has shown slow development isn't the way to go. Not categorically anyway when breakthrough talents become available. There are shortcuts teams should often take when quality opportunities present themselves, particularly when they're well poised to compete. The problem is Vegas has taken some real moonshots whereas it seems like the Caps rarely have that level of ambition. Still may not. (And maybe more realistically this team really isn't poised to compete anyway.) One area where the process may be weakened is their analytics department, where a staff of just two IINM is among the smallest in the league. By their own admission the process took a back seat with hiring Lavi so it's hard to give them full marks on process lately either. In terms of keeping picks it's true but then you've got to wonder with Lavi whether it was a coherent strategy.

If PIT adds Karlsson for relatively little I'd push them ahead of the Caps next season. Until some of these picks contribute in fairly significant roles it's just a lot of promise. Great to have but the needle needs moving. Quantity in itself doesn't mean much. I don't doubt MacLellan may be ready to cash in on some for immediate help but you wonder if desperation won't lead to less than strong value. Or if the point hasn't been reached where even one decent top six upgrade goes far enough.

They've not managed value decisions all that keenly and it makes you wonder about their internal process. It makes you wonder what else in turn is just sort of nebulously assessed and squandered. It's not at all clear if they've learned from some of these issues. The front office has to up their game beyond resourcefulness on the edges. They're trying but they don't seem to be able to get ahead of things. They just sort of have their yearly routine and that's that. Maybe with Carbery aboard there's a new tone that helps make the front office better as well but it definitely remains to be seen whether they'll manage to be any more in sync.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

Does it, though? Does Vegas suggest that? Ideally teams would be fully self-sustaining but it's all about winning. Vegas has shown slow development isn't the way to go. Not categorically anyway when breakthrough talents become available. There are shortcuts teams should often take when quality opportunities present themselves, particularly when they're well poised to compete. The problem is Vegas has taken some real moonshots whereas it seems like the Caps rarely have that level of ambition. Still may not. (And maybe more realistically this team really isn't poised to compete anyway.) One area where the process may be weakened is their analytics department, where a staff of just two IINM is among the smallest in the league. By their own admission the process took a back seat with hiring Lavi so it's hard to give them full marks on process lately either. In terms of keeping picks it's true but then you've got to wonder with Lavi whether it was a coherent strategy.

If PIT adds Karlsson for relatively little I'd push them ahead of the Caps next season. Until some of these picks contribute in fairly significant roles it's just a lot of promise. Great to have but the needle needs moving. Quantity in itself doesn't mean much. I don't doubt MacLellan may be ready to cash in on some for immediate help but you wonder if desperation won't lead to less than strong value. Or if the point hasn't been reached where even one decent top six upgrade goes far enough.

They've not managed value decisions all that keenly and it makes you wonder about their internal process. It makes you wonder what else in turn is just sort of nebulously assessed and squandered. It's not at all clear if they've learned from some of these issues. The front office has to up their game beyond resourcefulness on the edges. They're trying but they don't seem to be able to get ahead of things. They just sort of have their yearly routine and that's that. Maybe with Carbery aboard there's a new tone that helps make the front office better as well but it definitely remains to be seen whether they'll manage to be any more in sync.

Preach. They like safer moves and rarely take on risk. It’s certainly one way to operate but in their current situation I’m not sure Milano/Strome type moves are going to move the needle enough.

 

[Brian23]

The difference between Pitt and the Caps is that the Caps have Ovi and Carlson of their "core" players playing well while Pit has had various forms of Crosby, Guentzal, Malkin, and Letang playing well.

Our old guys just stopped being good while the Pen's are still good. That's it. That's the difference. I would take a Strome move over a Granlund move 10 times out of 10.

 

[HTFN]

So just a good ole appearence of Captain Hindsight.

Even you, yourself, said at the time it was at most a 2nd rounder value of "overpay" for a player that, presumably, Lavi was actually going to want to play. The difference between Mantha and Vrana was an apples to apples difference.

The Panik signing end up being a bad signing, but it was lauded when he was signed. The process was right. No one expected him to just forget how to play hockey. Him being unloaded was complicated and compounded upon the global pandemic that did, and has, completely locked the salary cap even for the last 3 or 4 years.

Nobody gives any credit for Dowd and Hathaway though, or guys like Jensen. Yeah, sometimes moves like Panik don't work but other times we just sort of take these really reliable multi-year assets for granted and keep complaining.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

I’ll make a prediction. If the Caps don’t make the playoffs this year, BMac will be gone. Ted isn’t going to be happy with no playoffs again. Feel free to disagree.

I’m not hoping for that FYI. I just don’t think Ted will accept that result, especially with Ovi’s time winding down.

 

[895]

So just a good ole appearence of Captain Hindsight.

Even you, yourself, said at the time it was at most a 2nd rounder value of "overpay" for a player that, presumably, Lavi was actually going to want to play. The difference between Mantha and Vrana was an apples to apples difference.

The Panik signing end up being a bad signing, but it was lauded when he was signed. The process was right. No one expected him to just forget how to play hockey. Him being unloaded was complicated and compounded upon the global pandemic that did, and has, completely locked the salary cap even for the last 3 or 4 years.

No, that's not what I meant.

The trade itself was an overpayment by a 2nd by my estimation. But he didn't have to make the trade. Offloading Panik at the deadline and as part of the Mantha trade was obviously gonna be more expensive than dealing with it in the offseason with other teams in the mix.

So by insisting on the making the Mantha trade he overpaid in both ways.

 

[alphabetical]

The Mantha trade?

What are the other "several"?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I’ll make a prediction. If the Caps don’t make the playoffs this year, BMac will be gone. Ted isn’t going to be happy with no playoffs again. Feel free to disagree.

I’m not hoping for that FYI. I just don’t think Ted will accept that result, especially with Ovi’s time winding down.

I’ll take that bet. Not with the new young HC coming in….these two got another 2 years at least….probably 3.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

I’ll take that bet. Not with the new young HC coming in….these two got another 2 years at least….probably 3.

I don’t see Ted being cool with missing the playoffs for two years in a row, let alone 3 or 4.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I don’t see Ted being cool with missing the playoffs for two years in a row, let alone 3 or 4.

He would not be cool with it, but he might be accepting knowing they are a little bit stuck. Depends on if the roster gets reinforcements or not I guess….to some extent.

Ted is more patient than he should….now if Carbs falls on his face….who knows then?

 

[StrikingDistance]

I’ll make a prediction. If the Caps don’t make the playoffs this year, BMac will be gone. Ted isn’t going to be happy with no playoffs again. Feel free to disagree.

I’m not hoping for that FYI. I just don’t think Ted will accept that result, especially with Ovi’s time winding down.

You want to bookmark this post?

I'll wager you this:

If the Caps miss the playoffs and they fire GMBM, I won't post here for a year. If they don't fire GMBM, you don't post here for a year.

Deal?

IMO, no way they fire GMBM with a first year HC at the helm. None. Zero. Especially with all the old guys skating with walkers and needing help crossing 9th street.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

You want to bookmark this post?

I'll wager you this:

If the Caps miss the playoffs and they fire GMBM, I won't post here for a year. If they don't fire GMBM, you don't post here for a year.

Deal?

IMO, no way they fire GMBM with a first year HC at the helm. None. Zero. Especially with all the old guys skating with walkers and needing help crossing 9th street.

I won’t take that bet haha but I feel ya on your confidence.

I guess it depends on the amount they miss bye. If they collapse as in bottom 5 in the league I think you see a change. We shall see how it unfolds.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I won’t take that bet haha but I feel ya on your confidence.

I guess it depends on the amount they miss bye. If they collapse as in bottom 5 in the league I think you see a change. We shall see how it unfolds.

We don’t need to lose either of you posting here!

 

[YippieKaey]

I just want to see Ovi get to 895 this season.

 

[Calicaps]

I just want to see Ovi get to 895 this season.

not gonna be this year. possibly the next