2023 NHL Entry Draft Discussion - One Month Away

Status
Not open for further replies.

arttk

Registered User
Feb 16, 2006
18,052
9,988
Los Angeles
How fans rate defenders hasn't really changed since the days of Pronger and Lidstrom.

Top 5 superstar Norris types : #1 defenders
The other 27 #1 defenders : Eh, OK #2 guy I guess.
The 32 #2 defenders : Meh, mid-pairing 3-4.
True, when I think about #1, I think of a guy like Pronger than can play 30mins a game and play shutdown and offensive minutes with borderline NHL defense partner.

#2 are more like, can hold a 1st paring if the other guy is really good and #3 are guys who can hold a 2nd paring together if the partner is like Myers.
 

MS

1%er
Mar 18, 2002
54,079
86,447
Vancouver, BC
True, when I think about #1, I think of a guy like Pronger than can play 30mins a game and play shutdown and offensive minutes with borderline NHL defense partner.

#2 are more like, can hold a 1st paring if the other guy is really good and #3 are guys who can hold a 2nd paring together if the partner is like Myers.

People are locked into this thing where a #1 defender has to be this 30 minute all-situations beast who is scoring 50+ points while smashing people through the boards.

The prime example of how people mis-rate defenders is Dan Hamhuis, who was the #1 defender on back-to-back President's Trophy teams but if you ask this fanbase whether he was a #1 or a #2 you'll get like a 95% response that Hamhuis was a #2 because he wasn't huge and didn't get huge PP minutes or totals. But he was a top-15 defender in the NHL which is an above-average #1.

And that mentality is how you get ridiculous takes like 'Reinbacher's ceiling is a 3-4'.
 

LemonSauceD

Instigator
Sponsor
Jul 31, 2015
7,017
11,772
Vancouver
They went and traded for Hronek. I expect them to try and acquire defenseman around the same age as Hronek. Why else would you trade the 17th OA pick when you know you could just draft a dman with it. Ah right, it’s all about that competitive windowzz.

Realistically, other than Reinbacher, Simashev and Willander are about 2-3 years away and at least another 5 years away from the time they were drafted before they potentially become contributing factors. It doesn’t make sense for management to draft a defenseman who shot up 2 tiers in the last couple of months with their highest pick when they could have used their lower 1st round pick to draft him.

Im thinking if management drafts Willander or Simashev, the Hronek trade becomes so f***ing pointless.
 

MS

1%er
Mar 18, 2002
54,079
86,447
Vancouver, BC
I always interpret it as the Gillis Canucks teams was, ideally, an entire blueline filled with pretty traditional #2 defenders. Which is my preferred way of building a defence. Get as many solid defenders as you can have.

Hamhuis was a #1 in every way except he didn't get 25 PP points to drive his production into the area people associate with #1 defenders. Elite top-pairing shutdown guy, quality ES producer, great on the PK, top-10 in Norris voting in 11-12, selected for Canada at the Olympics.

After that, yes, they had four #2 defenders in Bieksa/Salo/Ehrhoff/Edler. Salo probably was actually #1 level as well if he ever could have stayed healthy and maintained his best level of play for a full season.
 

arttk

Registered User
Feb 16, 2006
18,052
9,988
Los Angeles
People are locked into this thing where a #1 defender has to be this 30 minute all-situations beast who is scoring 50+ points while smashing people through the boards.

The prime example of how people mis-rate defenders is Dan Hamhuis, who was the #1 defender on back-to-back President's Trophy teams but if you ask this fanbase whether he was a #1 or a #2 you'll get like a 95% response that Hamhuis was a #2 because he wasn't huge and didn't get huge PP minutes or totals. But he was a top-15 defender in the NHL which is an above-average #1.

And that mentality is how you get ridiculous takes like 'Reinbacher's ceiling is a 3-4'.
If everyone thinks that way then I guess the meaning might as well be adjusted to it.
#1 = hall of fame freaks that can carry a plug to play shutdown and offfense minutes
 

Vector

Moderator
Feb 2, 2007
24,114
38,993
Junktown
Hamhuis was a #1 in every way except he didn't get 25 PP points to drive his production into the area people associate with #1 defenders. Elite top-pairing shutdown guy, quality ES producer, great on the PK, top-10 in Norris voting in 11-12, selected for Canada at the Olympics.

After that, yes, they had four #2 defenders in Bieksa/Salo/Ehrhoff/Edler. Salo probably was actually #1 level as well if he ever could have stayed healthy and maintained his best level of play for a full season.

That's why I used the word "traditional". "Perceived" would also work.

You even saw the philosophy in the Ballard trade, although that obviously didn't work out, and in the Garrison signing.

This is why I am so in love with the Reinbachers and Willanders of the world. When someone tells me that a defender's biggest weakness is that they won't be able to quarterback a powerplay I only get more interested. Just load the system up with as many two-way defenders as possible.
 

Izzy Goodenough

Registered User
Oct 11, 2020
2,634
2,584
This entirely speculation but if Michkov will only play for the Rangers or the Canucks, perhaps the speculation of the Rangers trading for the 11OA is really about the possibility that Michkov falls to 11 and the Rangers want to grab him.
 

Vector

Moderator
Feb 2, 2007
24,114
38,993
Junktown
This entirely speculation but if Michkov will only play for the Rangers or the Canucks, perhaps the speculation of the Rangers trading for the 11OA is really about the possibility that Michkov falls to 11 and the Rangers want to grab him.

I'd trade the 11th overall for K'Andre Miller, Braden Schneider, and Alexis Lafreniere. They can also have their choice of Conor Garland and Brock Boeser. Oh, also I want a second. Just for fun. Would be nice to get one of those in a trade instead of giving one away. ;)
 

MS

1%er
Mar 18, 2002
54,079
86,447
Vancouver, BC
That's why I used the word "traditional". "Perceived" would also work.

You even saw the philosophy in the Ballard trade, although that obviously didn't work out, and in the Garrison signing.

This is why I am so in love with the Reinbachers and Willanders of the world. When someone tells me that a defender's biggest weakness is that they won't be able to quarterback a powerplay I only get more interested. Just load the system up with as many two-way defenders as possible.

Oh, for sure.

There's this weird thing where people zero in on PP points and point production as the defining thing for a #1 defender but it's actually the least important thing and kind of a party trick that forwards and fringe players can do well enough.

Paradoxically, it might actually be *better* to find a Hamhuis/Slavin/Lindholm who is a #1D who doesn't play PP1 because you'll get that player on a bargain cap hit relative to an equivalent (or worse) player who ramps up to 50-odd points based on PP usage.

And I'm right there with you on the Reinbachers and Willanders.
 

canuckking1

Registered User
Feb 8, 2015
12,915
14,043
Have you actually watched Reinbacher?? He really doesn’t. He doesn’t excel at anything except for maybe moving the puck out. He’s not bad, but saying he’s #1 is either a misunderstanding of his ability or what a number one D man actually is. (I know it’s been a while since we have seen one)
You don’t consider Hughes a number #1?
 

Izzy Goodenough

Registered User
Oct 11, 2020
2,634
2,584
Benjamin Nushmutt said:
Have you actually watched Reinbacher?? He really doesn’t. He doesn’t excel at anything except for maybe moving the puck out. He’s not bad, but saying he’s #1 is either a misunderstanding of his ability or what a number one D man actually is. (I know it’s been a while since we have seen one)


Reinbacher is a bit of a Swashbuckler.

He reminds me of a young JoVo Cop.


I prefer Smash-off as he is the best defender of the available D-men and he will most likely be a 1D or 2D.
 
  • Like
Reactions: quat

Canucker

Go Hawks!
Oct 5, 2002
25,620
4,844
Oak Point, Texas
When I watch Reinbacher i think of Justin Faulk with less goal scoring...pretty solid, minute munching 2-way defenseman. IMO he's a guy who could be a #1 defenseman on a mediocre team, but is probably better suited as a #2-3 guy who plays 20-22 minutes and can play in all situations. I think he'll be a good player, but I think there are higher ceiling guys I would take before him.
 

Hodgy

Registered User
Feb 23, 2012
4,422
4,483
It's common knowledge that Dhaliwal only talks to agents?
It is common knowledge that Dhaliwal has agent connections which is why he typically breaks signings and things like that because he gets his information from the agents, not the team.

Dhaliwal is a credible source for the Canucks, full stop. Why would that change due to the context of the draft? He's either an insider with legit sources that has a proven track record, or he's not.
This is so illogical and obviously false. Of course the context matters. Frankly, this should be beyond debate, and the idea that you are either an insider with legit sources for all contexts or not, is ridiculous. Of course you have have some insiders with more credibility in different contexts. Like, Faber is somewhat of an insider in terms of prospects but that doesn't mean he has the same credibility in terms of trades. I honestly can't believe you are even debating this.

Again, Dhaliwal historically has been most accurate in reporting on free agent and college signings and other similar things. He has been far less accurate in reporting on trades or other things like that where the source is from the team. The reasons for this are twofold: first, Dhaliwal's sources are typically agents; and second, the Canucks management, in general, have been very tight lipped.

The onus is on you to prove that he's not in terms of the draft. That the context of the draft and his restriction to only agents (if true) limits or distorts the information he is getting about the draft. I haven't implied any of this, you have.
The onus isn't on me to prove anything. You have made the initial assertion that we should rely on Dhaliwal's rumour in terms of concluding that the Canucks are interested in certain players. You have the onus of proof since you are making the initial assertion.

In addition, I stand by the fact that teams' draft lists are very rarely leaked, and that Dhaliwal hasn't historically been accurate on that type of thing. So, the onus is on you to prove why we should take Dhaliwal's rumour seriously.


On Drance: I figured. All you had to say is that you don't buy into his rumours. Or, any rumour about the draft. It's when you said no one should that it gets contested. Dhaliwal is a legit insider that has broken Canucks news that fans have relied upon. I am giving him that same due. You don't have to.
I am very skeptical of any draft rumours because, as I have stated multiple times, teams' draft lists are very rarely leaked. We know this because mock drafts are terrible and are almost never accurate and that's because teams keep their draft lists very confidential. It makes no sense to leak these which is different from other contexts where teams intentionally leak things for leverage. And it also differs from other contexts in that there is only one relevant party in terms of leaking, and that's the team. We aren't dealing with other teams or agents.

And @MS already noted this, but obviously teams are interested in all of the players ranked to go in the first round. They are all great prospects. This is meaningless and there is zero reason why a team would ever tip their hat as to their prospect list, so it would need to be some kind of accidental leak. And these leaks just don't happen very often, and seem to happen even less often with this management group.

And on Dhaliwall, I think he's credible in certain context. Like free agency.
 

Hodgy

Registered User
Feb 23, 2012
4,422
4,483
It is only consistent with historical data when grouping the top32 of 224. Or when isolating the top2-3 players. It is not consistent when judging picks across the 1st round. It is also not consistent when judging a tier of even just 2 players (Tkachuk/Juolevi).

You're taking what is consistent in the data and are applying it to what is not consistent in the data.
For sure, there are always going to be exceptions to the tiers and the tiers are never going to be exactly where you thought they were. But broadly speaking, there will be general drop offs and tiers. But ya, of course we are speaking in generalities here as there will be players taken in the later rounds that, in hindsight, should have been taken in a tier within the first round.

But tiering also tracks historical data in another important way that I have alluded to in the past. And that is the fact that projecting prospects is inherently unpredictable and this is shown in the historical data. This is important because it speaks to the point I have made several times and which you are not expressly addressing, i.e., the reality that multiple scouts can evaluate multiple players, and at the time of the draft, not discern any meaningful differences in their projections. This is why tiering exists. And this is supported in the historical data because we know, from historical data, that scouts are not actually very good in terms of reliability projecting players that are all "ranked" similarly. So rather than try to rank BPAs, which has proven to be unreliable, why not pick up more assets / target positional need by tiering those players. And again, I accept that there is the same reliability issue in deciding who to include in a tier but this issue exists in the BPA approach anyway.

Most would agree that Benson is the BPA too. It's not just that he belongs to a tier above and we cannot discern his skillset and projection as a player. Meaning, it doesn't stop at his tiering.
In Benson's case most would say we can discern a different in his projection vs. players in a lower tier, and therefore, should be picked regardless of position given that he is the last player available in the higher tier.


Error in judgement = getting the tier wrong = getting BPA wrong.
Yes. But with tiering there is the added benefit of picking up assets or targeting positional need while having the same drawback as BPA approach.
 

Nona Di Giuseppe

Registered User
Jul 14, 2009
4,951
2,509
Coquitlam
How fans rate defenders hasn't really changed since the days of Pronger and Lidstrom.

Top 5 superstar Norris types : #1 defenders
The other 27 #1 defenders : Eh, OK #2 guy I guess.
The 32 #2 defenders : Meh, mid-pairing 3-4.

That's quite the exaggeration

I don't think there's 32 defenders that adequately fulfil the #1 defender role, but claiming 5 just to make some sort of "lookit how dumb everyone is" statement isn't helping your point.

Do you call Hughes a #1 defender?
 

Nona Di Giuseppe

Registered User
Jul 14, 2009
4,951
2,509
Coquitlam
Reinbacher is a bit of a Swashbuckler.

He reminds me of a young JoVo Cop.


I prefer Smash-off as he is the best defender of the available D-men and he will most likely be a 1D or 2D.

Jovo lite 2.5 maybe. I don't entirely disagree with the comparison. And I haven't seen Simashev to have a strong opinion whatsoever, but would likely rather him vs Reinbacher from what I've heard. Okay with either really.
 

MS

1%er
Mar 18, 2002
54,079
86,447
Vancouver, BC
That's quite the exaggeration

I don't think there's 32 defenders that adequately fulfil the #1 defender role, but claiming 5 just to make some sort of "lookit how dumb everyone is" statement isn't helping your point.

Do you call Hughes a #1 defender?

Change the numbers a bit but the point holds.

And yes, Hughes playing the way he did in the 2nd half last year isn't just a #1 defender, he's a top-5 defender in the NHL.
 
  • Like
Reactions: racerjoe

Bojack Horvatman

IAMGROOT
Jun 15, 2016
4,323
7,723
Change the numbers a bit but the point holds.

And yes, Hughes playing the way he did in the 2nd half last year isn't just a #1 defender, he's a top-5 defender in the NHL.

Yeah, Hughes has been a true #1 the last 2 seasons. Anyone that doesn't think Hughes is a number hasn't adjusted their opinion of him since 2021, or never will think he is a number 1 because something something... too small... something something... muffin shot.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad