2023 NHL Entry Draft Discussion - Draft Lottery Edition

[bossram]

Tom Willander just makes to much sense. Would solidify the right side.

Would try to trade down with Nashville and grab a 2nd but risky with Buffalo likely to take him at 13th.

If they want Willander, there's almost zero chance they get him if they trade down.

Mocks coming out now are having more teams taking him in the top-10. STL is a threat to grab him.

I'm beginning to think there's at least a 50/50 chance the Canucks trade this pick and move back in the draft.

Of course if will all depend on who gets picked before the 11th selection. Somebody to the Canucks liking might drop.

But moving back in the draft and shedding a bad contract makes too much sense for it not to be at least considered.

Depends who's on the board.

If Benson is still there at 11, they cannot trade down.

If a trade down means they get the leftovers of Leonard, Perrault, Yager, Barlow, Danielson etc. then I think a trade down could make sense.

 

[Vector]

Depends who's on the board.

If Benson is still there at 11, they cannot trade down.

If a trade down means they get the leftovers of Leonard, Perrault, Yager, Barlow, Danielson etc. then I think a trade down could make sense.

Obviously the following depends on where they have Benson ranked but I suspect they might trade down if he's at 11 because he may be the player that most entices a team to give up a haul.

 

[bossram]

Obviously the following depends on where they have Benson ranked but I suspect they might trade down if he's at 11 because he may be the player that most entices a team to give up a haul.

Yeah, there needs to be a team that wants to trade up too, and Benson might be that player for some team.

I would not enjoy that though.

 

[Lat]

If they want Willander, there's almost zero chance they get him if they trade down.

Mocks coming out now are having more teams taking him in the top-10. STL is a threat to grab him.


Depends who's on the board.

If Benson is still there at 11, they cannot trade down.

If a trade down means they get the leftovers of Leonard, Perrault, Yager, Barlow, Danielson etc. then I think a trade down could make sense.

If Leonard is available at 11, we should take him and not trade down.

 

[bossram]

If Leonard is available at 11, we should take him and not trade down.

I prefer Moore to Leonard. I'd rather go Moore at 11.

 

[Nucker101]

I prefer Moore to Leonard. I'd rather go Moore at 11.

Wood over both though

 

[DFAC]

Wood over both though

Benson over all 3

 

[Vector]

Spoiler: Top-32:

1) Connor Bedard
2) Adam Fantilli
3) Matvei Michkov
4) Leo Carlsson
5) Will Smith
6) Ryan Leonard
7) Zach Benson
8) David Reinbacher
9) Dalibor Dvorsky
10) Axel Sandin Pellikka
11) Oliver Moore
12) Colby Barlow
13) Riley Heidt
14) Dmitri Simashev
15) Matthew Wood
16) Samuel Honzek
17) Gabe Perreaut
18) Nate Danielson
19) Eduard Sale
20) Andrew Cristall
21) Brayden Yager
22) Quentin Musty
23) Mikhail Gulyayev
24) Cal Ritchie
25) Ethan Gauthier
26) Oliver Bonk
27) Lukas Dragicevic
28) Otto Stenberg
29) William Whitelaw
30) Tom Willander
31) Gavin Brindley
32) Nick Lardis

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

I’d bet money Nucks draft a dman at #11 no matter who is still available.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Average list updated ... (McKeen's update and now 14 rankings)

No change in the top five

1 Connor Bedard C 1.00
2 Adam Fantilli C 2.00
3 Matvei Michkov RW 3.64
4 Leo Carlsson C 3.64
5 Will Smith C 5.36

One man island ...

6 Zach Benson F 7.71

.......

7 Ryan Leonard C 10.21
8 Dalibor Dvorský C 10.29
9 Oliver Moore C 12.64
10 Colby Barlow LW 13.07
11 Axel Sandin Pellikka D 13.29
12 David Reinbacher D 13.57

......

13 Eduard Sale RW 14.71
14 Nate Danielson C 15.21
15 Matthew Wood F 15.93
16 Brayden Yager C 16.36
17 Gabe Perreault RW 17.21

......

18 Andrew Cristall LW 19.31
19 Samuel Honzek C 21.71
20 Calum Ritchie C 22.43
21 Otto Stenberg C 23.21
22 Dmitri Simashev D 23.38
23 Quentin Musty LW 23.54
24 Gavin Brindley RW 24.17
25 Mikhail Gulyayev D 24.71

This list somewhat demonstrates, that the Canucks were never going to be bad enough to get in that first tier of prospects...That grouping of 7 - 12 does look interesting though.

 

[CanuckleBerry]

Seems to be a big disconnect on the perception of Willander. Having top-10 potential to some, all the way down to bottom of the 1st or later for others. These rankings and scouting reports just seem all over. It only takes one GM I suppose to make that call. Will he be available at 11? Will he be available much later?

 

[bossram]

Seems to be a big disconnect on the perception of Willander. Having a top-10 potential all the way down to bottom of the 1st or later. These rankings and scouting reports just seem all over. It only takes one GM I suppose to make that call. Will he be available at 11? Will he be available much later?

He's been a riser. Once all the final lists are released, I think we'll see his consensus ranking much higher and maybe into the top-15 range.

Plus he's a good-sized RD. Teams salivate at that. I think everyone is projecting that some team will "over draft" him based on need.

 

[wonton15]

He's been a riser. Once all the final lists are released, I think we'll see his consensus ranking much higher and maybe into the top-15 range.

Plus he's a good-sized RD. Teams salivate at that. I think everyone is projecting that some team will "over draft" him based on need.

Yeah, that team is us

 

[Knight53]

Chi - Bedard
Ana - Fantilli
CBJ - Smith
SJ - Carlsson
MTL - Dvorsky
ARI - Reinbacher
PHI - Leonard
WSH - Barlow
DET - Benson
STL - ASP
VAN - Willander

- Michkov is biggest wildcard, could go anywhere from 4-15
- CBJ loves Smith
- hearing from all his sources ARI loves Reinbacher and he’s there guy
- MTL loves Dvorsky but would take Smith before him if he’s there
- STL has strong links to ASP
- VAN needs RHD, but have also been linked to Danielson
- Buffalo loves Simashev

 

[bossram]

Yeah, that team is us

If Benson is off the board, I don’t really mind it.

If the consensus is that picks ~10-25 are basically one big tier, then I don’t think there is a huge issue selecting a guy who ends up ranked 15 at pick 11.

 

[Vector]

Yeah, that team is us

Hey, I’m cool with that but I’m a weirdo who loves a very specific kind of player.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

I’ve read a few mock drafts recently that have noted the Canucks need organizational center depth.

I mean we need pretty much everything our system improved but we need to go big in this draft and keep all of our picks and try to acquire a 2nd .

The mock drafts have us selecting Nate Danielson , I would be very unhappy if Nate Danielson was our pick at 11

Yeah I don't think we are in any position to be drafting based on what we have in the system.

We don't have anything in the system.



edit. What has Willander done that is increasing his stock so dramaticly?

I'm naturally inclined to guess it is as a result of over emphasizing a small sample at the end of the season, with out knowing what it is actually about.

 

[604]

Is Mark Stone Mark Stone if Mark Stone were 6” shorter?

So Gilbert Brule?

Isn’t Wood more likely to end up as Mark Stone?

 

[DFAC]

Seems to be a big disconnect on the perception of Willander. Having top-10 potential to some, all the way down to bottom of the 1st or later for others. These rankings and scouting reports just seem all over. It only takes one GM I suppose to make that call. Will he be available at 11? Will he be available much later?

My question with Willander is what is his ceiling if everything goes well? Is it top pairing or second pairing? From what Ive read and seen - most of it points to being a solid second pairing guy like Adam Larsson.

If his absolute ceiling is second pairing then Id rather draft the winger with top line potential. If Benson/Perrault is there then that’s who Im looking at

 

[Yultron]

Yeah I don't think we are in any position to be drafting based on what we have in the system.

We don't have anything in the system.



edit. What has Willander done that is increasing his stock so dramaticly?

I'm naturally inclined to guess it is as a result of over emphasizing a small sample at the end of the season, with out knowing what it is actually about.

I believe we have three high upside players in the system actually in Klimovich , Lekkerimacki and Elias Pettersson 2.0

 

[docbenton]

My question with Willander is what is his ceiling if everything goes well? Is it top pairing or second pairing? From what Ive read and seen - most of it points to being a solid second pairing guy like Adam Larsson.

If his absolute ceiling is second pairing then Id rather draft the winger with top line potential. If Benson/Perrault is there then that’s who Im looking at

I think with Willander there is uncertainty - that's why there's such a range. He was legitimately great at the U18s, but in U20 Swedish juniors he often looked raw and didn't produce much. Great skater and good size, the hands and mind - maybe there are some question marks. So is this a player who improved a lot and is trending up, or did he just have a great tournament?

 

[bossram]

Corey Pronman released his final ranking (along with "tiers" for groups of players):

1. Bedard (T1)
2. Fantilli (T2)
3. Michkov (T2)
4. Carlsson (T3)
5. Smith (T3)
6. Reinbacher (T4)
7. Danielson (T4)
8. Dvorsky (T4)
9. But (T4)
10. Simashev (T4)
11. Leonard
12. Perreault
13. Honzek
14. Wood
15. Willander
16. Yager
17. Benson
18. Edstrom
19. Moore
20. Barlow

https://theathletic.com/4538998/2023/05/30/nhl-draft-rankings-2023-bedard-pronman/

 

[Ita]

Corey Pronman released his final ranking (along with "tiers" for groups of players):

1. Bedard (T1)
2. Fantilli (T2)
3. Michkov (T2)
4. Carlsson (T3)
5. Smith (T3)
6. Reinbacher (T4)
7. Danielson (T4)
8. Dvorsky (T4)
9. But (T4)
10. Simashev (T4)
11. Leonard
12. Perreault
13. Honzek
14. Wood
15. Willander
16. Yager
17. Benson
18. Edstrom
19. Moore
20. Barlow

Do you mind updating the tier for the picks after 10 as well? Curious what he thinks the cut off is

 

[bossram]

Do you mind updating the tier for the picks after 10 as well? Curious what he thinks the cut off is

They're all the same tier. So I didn't bother to type it in.

 

[Vector]

As @bossram posted, here's Pronman's final rankings. It's an exhaustive 142 players long. Unlike his other rankings he doesn't go very in-depth.

Spoiler: Top-32:

1) Connor Bedard
2) Adam Fantilli
3) Matvei Michkov
4) Leo Carlsson
5) Will Smith
6) David Reinbacher
7) Nate Danielson
8) Dalibor Dvorsky
9) Daniel But
10) Dmitri Simashev
11) Ryan Leonard
12) Gabriel Perreault
13) Samuel Honzek
14) Matthew Wood
15) Tom Willander
16) Brayden Yager
17) Zach Benson
18) David Edstrom
19) Oliver Moore
20) Colby Barlow
21) Quentin Musty
22) Axel Sandin Pellikka
23) Charlie Stramel
24) Eduard Sale
25) Tanner Molendyk
26) Oliver Bonk
27) Calum Ritchie
28) Otto Stenberg
29) Gavin Brindley
30) Mikhail Gulyayev
31) Lukas Dragicevic
32) Danny Nelson