2023 NHL Entry Draft Discussion - Draft Lottery Edition

[Bleach Clean]

I think Wood will be gone by 11 as at least one team will prioritize size and take him over the smaller forwards like Moore, Perreault, Yager, etc. He could very well be that guy who will be considered a top 5 player in their draft when all is said and done but this draft is loaded with high upside forwards and will take years to sort out who the best ones are.

We obviously like to project the best outcomes for every pick (especially those we favour), but where it gets wonky is that we project a top offensive outcome for 'rounded' talents while at the same time giving those same players a high floor edge. Example: Wood could be top5 producer/player or 'fail' on his way to middle6 utility.

While this may be the case, it is unlikely to be the case. The players around Wood are more talented and smarter (Benson/Perreault). If we say that Wood is likely to hit his ceiling and become Thompson, then we have to say Benson becomes Point. Ordinarily, we would give the better skilled player a higher chance to hit his offensive ceiling, but here Wood is the best of both (he's not).

It would be different if Wood was seen as a Tkachuk level producer and talent, given his draft class comparable players. Tkachuk compared favourably to Keller in terms of skill and IQ. Wood's context is more Pettersson/Vilardi, where there is a clear trade off between production and versatility amongst his peers.

As an aside, Keller's production in his first year (his only year, similar to Wood) at Boston was stellar. NHLe was 46.77. NHLe for Tkachuk was 49.71 in London.

 

[rypper]

I wonder if there's a chance something wild happens where some GMs go for position and all 3 of the highly ranked RHD go before our pick, opening up some players at our spot that wouldn't have been there.

 

[Vector]

I wonder if there's a chance something wild happens where some GMs go for position and all 3 of the highly ranked RHD go before our pick, opening up some players at our spot that wouldn't have been there.

I'd be surprised but it's not crazy. With the Blues and Red Wings have multiple first rounders, I can see both of them grabbing a defencemen. Arizona is, seemingly, expected to pick Reinbacher at 6 and use the 12th on a forward. So I could see Reinbacher (Coyotes), ASP (Red Wings), and Willander (Blues) all gone by 11.

 

[ephmrl]

Would be happy to come out of the draft with any of Benson, Moore, Wood, Reinbacher, or Dvorsky.
If Willander is somehow hanging around near the end of the first round, hopefully Allvin tries his best to move up to get him.

 

[Vector]

Carter Sotheran, Connor Levis, Jaden Lipinski, Sawyer Mynio, and Yegor Sidorov.

 

[VanJack]

I checked out that Canucks Army article, and all I say is 'you have to be kidding'. They summarized the Canucks dismal record of drafting players from the Dub over the past 5-6 seasons. It's beyond 'bad', it's downright embarrassing.

How the Canucks haven't torn down their WHL scouting staff by now and started over, is a complete baffler. Maybe they already have, and it just escaped my attention.

But the sad reality is that even expending a round 3-5 pick on a player from WHL represents a major 'risk' for the Canucks, given their track record.

 

[strattonius]

Is it just the Canucks? The WHL feels like slim pickings most years - this year obviously being an outlier. I am surprised we have the same unsuccessful WHL scouts but st the same time I'm okay with our resources more heavily in the U.S and overseas

 

[Ninjadude]

Trade Miller at the deadline for the rumoured Pitt deal that fell apart, don't do the Hronek trade, play Martin a couple times and boom, we draft at 8, 14, 17, and 40...

So you mean if we had stayed the course and did the right thing (and I know people will argue what is the right thing…all about perspective ) we wouldn’t have a cap compliance issue, have young prospects in the system and trade capital??

 

[Bubbles]

Is it just the Canucks? The WHL feels like slim pickings most years - this year obviously being an outlier. I am surprised we have the same unsuccessful WHL scouts but st the same time I'm okay with our resources more heavily in the U.S and overseas

Delorme.

 

[VIPettersson]

Is it just the Canucks? The WHL feels like slim pickings most years - this year obviously being an outlier. I am surprised we have the same unsuccessful WHL scouts but st the same time I'm okay with our resources more heavily in the U.S and overseas

Yikes, I forgot about that momentarily.

 

[Kryten]

Is it just the Canucks? The WHL feels like slim pickings most years - this year obviously being an outlier. I am surprised we have the same unsuccessful WHL scouts but st the same time I'm okay with our resources more heavily in the U.S and overseas

Yea while there are many good players from the WHL it usually seems like bust central

 

[AHLdepth]

I think Moore's skating is a bit overrated. He's Nico Hischier fast, not Dylan Larkin fast, and he seems to work really hard to get going. Danielson seems like actually a smoother and more efficient skater - an "easy skater" with explosiveness.

Watching Moore skate and he seems fast like a cartoon, like so much movement and hustle to it that I sometimes think you almost artificially believe he is going faster. I'm not saying he's not incredibly fast, he simply is almost surely top 3 in this draft, but like you say, I don't think he's "upper echelon of the NHL" fast

 

[Hammman]

So you mean if we had stayed the course and did the right thing (and I know people will argue what is the right thing…all about perspective ) we wouldn’t have a cap compliance issue, have young prospects in the system and trade capital??

We also wouldn't have to read people bitching endlessly about it months after the fact even though it's been rehashed repeatedlyand serves no purpose. If only!

 

[PuckMunchkin]

We also wouldn't have to read people bitching endlessly about it months after the fact even though it's been rehashed repeatedlyand serves no purpose. If only!

For some of us a decade of fultility and another decade coming... well you see it irks us every now and then.

 

[EverTheCynic]

If you don't think a top 5 centre, top 5 dman, and a top 10 goalie can win a cup together, I don't think you watch sports. Building the rest of the team is completely the challenge. I don't know if it can be done especially from our position, but those player absolutely can win a cup with the correct support players.

Top 5 might be a little generous, but I tend to agree with you with a few conditions.

Generally the time to win is when your top guys are on the pre-UFA contracts. Petey is gonna be making $11m+, Hughes is on the kind of deal you want, but is due for a massive raise around the time we could conceivably be contending again. He'll be making north of $10m as well. Demko is due a big raise next season if he finds his form and consistency.

So generally the time to win and compete was when all these guys were younger and cost controlled. Which is what Benning tried to do. I think? He was just spectacularly awful at it.

In order to build around post-UFA contract stars, you need a lot of luck. You need ELC contracts filling key roles in the top 6/4. You need to hit on a lot of draft picks. You need to be relying heavily on the farm. Nabbing guys from NCAA and Europe on the cheap. You also need solid contracts up and down the lineup.

That is hard to do. It's going to be nearly impossible when our entire roster is saddled with bad contracts nobody wants that we need to get rid of before we even consider beginning to build around the core.

There might be some hockey trades out there, but the problem is cap space is such a valuable commodity that it will be difficult to do hockey trades where we walk away with any extra cap allotment.

 

[Peter Griffin]

Trade Miller at the deadline for the rumoured Pitt deal that fell apart, don't do the Hronek trade, play Martin a couple times and boom, we draft at 8, 14, 17, and 40...

From recent reports it was Pittsburgh, specifically ownership and Mike Sullivan who didn't want to move Zucker, that caused the Miller trade to fail.

 

[Vector]

Just for context, Pittsburgh ownership rejecting a Miller trade comes from this Athletic article by Rob Rossi.

Hextall flirted with the idea of adding Vancouver forward J.T. Miller, a Pittsburgh-area native who recorded 99 points the previous season, in a three-team trade, but the Penguins would have lost Jason Zucker in the deal — a non-starter for an infuriated Sullivan and a move that would’ve clashed with FSG’s judgment that it couldn’t justify Miller’s massive contract extension from a business perspective.

Reading that, FSG didn't reject the trade so much as it probably never even got to them for approval.

 

[Peter Griffin]

I'm also beginning to think that the "2 firsts" for Miller was more likely the ask from Allvin and not what Hextall actually offered.

 

[Hodgy]

I’m no expert, but do think the following will occur:
1. The top three will be Bedard, Fantillini and Carlson in that order. I think Michkov and Smith go in the top 8;
2. At least two defensemen go in top 10 (likely two of Reinbacher, Sandin Pelicka and Willander);
3. Doborski, Wood and Leonard go in the top 10; and
4. Benson falls but not sure if he makes it to the Canucks. Perrault falls farther and isn’t taken by the Canucks.

So I am thinking the Canucks pick preference is as follows:
1. Benson if he falls (unlikely);
2. Reinbacher or Willander if either falls;
3. Moore, Danielson;
4. Sandin Pelicka.

 

[Hansen]

I think theres enormous potential for an incredible player like Benson to be there for us.

Wood has Philly's MO all over him. I could easily see him going at their spot or higher. I think that Dvorsky and Barlow also have potential to climb a la Gauthier/McTavish and someone is going to cherish what they bring.

As much as I want one of Reinbacher ASP (Im not as familiar with Willander but hes getting hype late) the talk of potentially all 3 going top 10 would mean that someone is falling.

Leonard and Moore I could see sliding past us into the teens. Theyre fringe top 10, MS' criticisms of Moore are valid and I think Leonard's point totals are undercut by a better player in Smith being involved.

Here's my pure vibes top 10

1. Bedard
2. Fantilli
3. Smith
4. Carlsson (I would take Carlsson 2 personally but this is the vibe Im feeling)
5. Dvorsky
6. Barlow (this is where I think Benson gets slid, but he should go)
7. Wood
8. Michkov
9. Reinbacher (my gut says Samuel Honzek here to Detroit for some reason too though)
10. Sandin Pellikka

 

[Vector]

We’re firmly into the silly-season for draft articles. Faber wrote a fun article about players 6’5 and over.

There is no player on the NHL Central Scouting list who weighs more than Matter Fabrizi. The big left-shot defenceman is tipping the scales in Faber-country, coming in at 234 pounds.

 

[wetcoast]

Sure would have been nice to lose a few more games and keep our other 1st and 2nd round picks!

It was looking good for a while with a much better 1st pick and 2 really good guys possibly with the NYI first and out high second but now the brass will talk about the 3rd and 4th round steals who likely never pan out to anything at all.

 

[SelltheTeamFrancesco]

So I was looking at the HF team mock draft and I wanted to use it and make a list of players plus the ones on the list that could be drafted before pick 11.

1. Hawks Connor Bedard, C, Regina Pats (WHL)
2. Ducks Adam Fantilli, C, Michigan
3. Cbj Leo Carlsson, C/W, Örebro HK
4. Sharks Matvei Michkov, RW, HK Sochi
5. Habs Will Smith, C, USNTP
6. Coyotes Ryan Leonard, C, USNTP
7. Flyers Zach Benson, F, Winnipeg Ice
8. Caps Dalibor Dvorský, C/RW, AIK
9. Wings David Reinbacher, D, Kloten
10. Blues Oliver Moore, C, USNTP

Likely: Nate Danielson, Cody Balow, Samuel Honzek, Gabriel Perreault, Matthew Wood, and Tom Willander.

Cody Barlow is a guy I would say would be the betting favorite to move into the top 10 because on every ranking you look at he is top 10 or 11. On Bob's list 11, and he never really is ranked below 15-18.

Nate Danielson is probably going to go really high because he is the one prospect in the 7-15 range in the draft that will almost assuredly play center in the NHL. Add to the fact that he is 6,1 and can skate pretty well, and is likely one of the most NHL-ready players in the draft. It is very easy to see how he could go top 10.

Gabriel Perreault was ranked 9 on Bob's list and had a good/great U-18 depending on who you ask but had historic production at the U-18 and USNTDP. He has a great offensive skill set, that a team in the top 10 might not want to pass up on.

Tom Willander will likely be ranked similarly to Mortiz Seider around the 16-20 in the final ranking and I don't think anyone this time around will bat an eye if he is picked after 6 or 7.

Unlikely: Axel Sandin Pelikka, Brayden Yager, Eduard Sale, Andrew Cristall, Dmitry Simsahev, and Riely Heidt.

ASP: Was impressive at both the WJC and U-18s. Also, had pretty good numbers in the J20. His offensive skill set could make some teams covet him in the top 10 if they think his defensive game can improve.

Eduard Sale: His International career is pretty damn good has excelled at almost every international tournament he has played in. He is big and skilled, if you look at the toolbox I could see a team picking him early.

Dmitry Simahev Might be the best skating defenseman in this draft and for his size, it is not even close. He is good defensively and could easily see a team seeing his upside with his size, skating, and defensive IQ and picking him early.

I think this is one of the reasons why you don't trade the 11th pick you only need one or two players that I listed above to get selected in the top 10 and you will likely have a very good prospect fall to 11. I think in that top 10 there is like flex 3 spots that I think are wide open. I expect Bedard, Fanitili, Carlsson, Smith, Dvorsly, Reinbacher, and Michkov to go top 10. Even Michkov and Reinbacher I could see scenarios where one or both fall out of the top 10. But even after that, I have no clue, Benson, Leonard, and Moore are not locks to go top 10 by any means.

 

[lawrence]

Is parraeult really that slow?

 

[Icebreakers]

If the top 10 are gone I'm going up there and taking Danielson without hesitation. He checks all of the boxes for me. He's a Lindholm / Kesler without the grit/pest guy.