2023 NHL Draft June 28 and 29, Nashville, TN (Selections - 13, 39, 45, 86, 109, 141, 173, 205)

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Jim Bob

RIP RJ
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Joe Schoen making off with Bills secrets? A Sean McDermott-Brian Daboll rift? The Satchel is back

How does Quentin Musty’s draft stock for 2023 look? Given he was the first overall selection in the OHL Draft, how are his stats/performance compared to other top prospects, Connor Bedard, Matvei Michkov, Adam Fantilli? His production has fallen off recently. — Evan J.

Musty, the winger from Hamburg, seems to be having a nice rookie season since the Sudbury Wolves selected him first overall in the OHL Draft.

But what do I know about teenage hockey players, Evan?

To answer your question, I reached out to Friend of the Satchel Kris Baker (@SabresProspects on Twitter) for his thoughts.

“Every level up is an adjustment,” Baker said. “The best teacher of the game is the game. While battling through a few dry spells, I see Musty learning a few things this year that could have him well-positioned as a top-15ish prospect in his draft year.

“It’s hard to put a definitive tag on him this far in advance of the 2023 draft, but he’s so big, so skilled, so dynamic that I have a hard time seeing a large pack of players being ahead of him.

“I don’t forecast him challenging the top range of forwards, which includes super-prospect types like Michkov and Bedard and another great player in Fantilli, but the potential is clearly present for Musty to force his way into that next tier. I think it’s plausible for teams to see a big, skilled body and gain more interest when they envision the player he could become when he gains ‘man strength.'”

Musty, listed at 6-foot-2 and 203 pounds, has 11 goals and 16 assists through 37 games. He is minus-20 for a team that has been outscored by almost 50 goals.

Over his past 11 games, Musty has six goals and three assists.

“I’m going to stay away from comparing stats because situations are different,” Baker said, “but scouts have to like what they’ve seen from Musty’s toolkit this season. The kid plays really hard. His power and smarts stand out. He’s great in space with his vision. He’s equally good in small areas with his quickness and hands. He can rip shots.

“I’m a believer in letting development breathe a little, even for those who have lofty expectations. Musty wasn’t afforded much room to breathe, though, and he’s honestly done a great job jumping right in and shouldering a hefty load on a young team finding its way.”
 

HogtownSabresfan

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We collectively need to stop obsessing about 'elite centres', 'number 1 centres', 'blue chip 1C prospects' & so on.

Cozens might even be that guy. Mitt might even be that guy. Quinn might even be that guy... If none of them pan out they are all still going to be useful players at this point.

However - we don't NEED this type of player to be successful.

We're projected to have eight players on our roster who are 23yo or under. The majority of these guys have been high draft picks with potential to grow. This isn't a team of career AHLers. We also have promising players such as Peterka & Samuelsson to add into the mix.

This is all before considering the Eichel return.

Ask yourself who was the so-called elite centre in the 2005-06 season. Maybe Briere if he plays the entire year? I doubt he cracks the top 10. For me, it might be the best Sabres team ever. (Let's not talk about injuries in playoffs). Why was it so good? There were virtually no holes in the lineup. To be honest, it was amazing. A Grier and Gastaud on 4th. Pyatt was a role player. Vanek sat some playoff games.

You stay out of the box and swarm teams with depth you win lots of hockey games. And this just elevates in playoffs. You need a goalie. We need a goalie. Elite centres? We can run two high quality PP and that's what counts.
 

Fjordy

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Top 10 of this draft will look crazy... But we should be closer to the playoffs.
 

Jim Bob

RIP RJ
Feb 27, 2002
56,279
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Rochester, NY
Wheeler: Early look at the top 26 prospects for the 2023 NHL Draft

A two-headed monster

Connor Bedard — C, Regina Pats, 5-foot-9

What more can you say about this kid? After his Pats got off to a slow start, and his start mirrored theirs, Bedard has been the most dangerous forward in the CHL since early December (saying nothing of how good he was in Calgary at Team Canada’s selection camp and then Edmtonon at the short-lived world juniors). It seems like he’s scoring a highlight-reel long-distance goal every game these days.
Bedard is a marvel. He’s got one of the best shooting actions in motion I’ve ever seen. The way he drops the puck into the middle of his stance and then explodes it off of his blade almost without any forward motion to indicate the shot’s coming is … remarkable. His release is lightning quick.

I say without any hyperbole that if you were to stick him on an ice surface and run him through drills with the world’s best shooters (say, Auston Matthews, Nikita Kucherov, Patrik Laine, Alex Ovechkin, Alex DeBrincat, and Steven Stamkos), not only would his shot already look like it belongs, but he’d be able to show them a thing or two in how he loads up and the variety of stances he can grip it and let it go from. His game isn’t just about the shot either, even if that’s its defining quality.

He’s got unbelievably quick hands and the loose grip that all great handlers have. He’s also got high-end speed with his galloping crossover strides and good acceleration from a standstill (with continued work to do to take his first two steps up a notch and find an even quicker gear), which help him carry the puck up ice or join in transition as the trailer whenever he has to play catchup. And he’s also highly creative despite his goal-scoring tilt. Scorers can get a bad rap that way because there’s this belief they’re always focused on the net. And while he is, there’s a lot to his game between the offensive zone blue line and the shot he takes that’s inventive.

He regularly makes difficult plays as a passer. Then you add in instincts off the puck to get open even when he’s a marked man (which he has done brilliantly in Regina without much help this season), an improved physical engagement, some underrated skill as a puck thief, and you’ve got a singular player. Nobody can defend his inside-out cut into a low, hard wrister in the WHL. It often takes two to take the puck off of him when he’s twisting and turning. I think we’re going to see him put up unheard of numbers in the WHL next season.

Matvei Michkov — LW/RW, SKA St. Petersburg, 5-foot-10

I think Bedard’s the favourite to go No. 1 next year (in part because he’s Canadian and that bias is real, but also because of Michkov’s contract with SKA) but I’m not convinced if this weren’t sorted alphabetically that he’d be my No. 1 right now on a purely player-to-player basis. Michkov’s that good and without any hesitation the best Russian prospect I’ve ever watched — certainly since Ovechkin. Michkov’s brilliance comes primarily from his ability to make plays quickly and execute them with incredible consistency, whether that’s ripping a patterned shot (his one-timer, his standstill wrister, his curl-and-drag, etc.), a quick move into a pass, a sudden stop-up, or an attacking cut.

But he’s also sturdy for his size, which allows him to extend plays, hang onto pucks when a quick attack isn’t there, or delay for his linemates. And while he shines in moments, those short moments and the consistency of his execution within them (despite being freakishly talented, he makes very few mistakes) create a uniquely high-reward, somehow low-risk game because when he tries things he’s never trying them out of desperation but rather intention.

A frontrunner for No. 3

Adam Fantilli — C, Chicago Steel, 6-foot-2

The best to describe Fantilli is the way one source once described him to me: “He’s a horse.” Fantilli is a big, strong, powerful kid who takes pucks from the wall to the interior with force and ease. He can beat you along the wall on the cycle. He can beat you carrying the puck in rotations around the perimeter of the offensive zone. And he can beat you pushing through lanes to the middle third, driving the net, or dropping a shoulder to take space that isn’t there. He blew me away in Calgary at Canada’s summer showcase, where he looked like a man among boys.

When he keeps his feet moving, he’s a lot to handle. Mix in a low, hard shot that can score from midrange consistently, an ability to protect the puck and shade in and out of coverage, a dangerous curl-and-drag wrister, and comfort in traffic, on top of the power and the skating, and you’ve got a player that teams are going to salivate over. Fantilli’s just as good inside the offensive zone as he is in transition and he can take over a game as result.

Candidates for the top 10


Quentin Musty — LW, Sudbury Wolves, 6-foot-2

The top pick in last year’s OHL draft, Musty’s one of the focal points of an entertaining, young team in Sudbury. Musty is a strong, sturdy, athletic net-driven winger with slick puckhandling skill one-on-one and a balanced skater’s stride. He can unload from his hip into a heavy snapshot or drop and drive the net into a tuck play in tight and has made some “pull-you-out-of-your-seat” plays with the puck already in the OHL.
 
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elchud

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Ask yourself who was the so-called elite centre in the 2005-06 season. Maybe Briere if he plays the entire year? I doubt he cracks the top 10. For me, it might be the best Sabres team ever. (Let's not talk about injuries in playoffs). Why was it so good? There were virtually no holes in the lineup. To be honest, it was amazing. A Grier and Gastaud on 4th. Pyatt was a role player. Vanek sat some playoff games.

You stay out of the box and swarm teams with depth you win lots of hockey games. And this just elevates in playoffs. You need a goalie. We need a goalie. Elite centres? We can run two high quality PP and that's what counts.

Yes if we can get a combination of Briere/Drury/Roy/Connolly we don't need an elite center. Even though Connolly was a 5th overall pick which is basically where you expect an elite center and we don't have any forwards that are top 5 picks.

Briere and Drury were unique players and elite players and I hope Cozens and Krebs can get to that level. You just don't know and thats a high expectation regardless of where they were drafted.

I think its possible that Cozens/Krebs/Mitts/Thompson develop into a similar center-ish core.

More than anything, we had a very special group of players for two seasons and its the most fun I've ever had watching hockey, watching that group come together.
 

Selanne00008

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I hope not, because then it will probably be a late first (classic of the genre). I think we can take a very good prospect with this Vegas pick in this draft.

Yeah I hear ya. I'm good either way. I think most hopeful yet realistic outcome is they continue to flounder and we end up with say, 13th overall, if they can even get that close to the top 10.

But, if they do hit in the lotto i'm fine with it. There's 0 guarantee they do well next year. They will have cap problems and others in the Pacific look strong and are not aging and are more up and coming.
 

Fjordy

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Yeah I hear ya. I'm good either way. I think most hopeful yet realistic outcome is they continue to flounder and we end up with say, 13th overall, if they can even get that close to the top 10.

But, if they do hit in the lotto i'm fine with it. There's 0 guarantee they do well next year. They will have cap problems and others in the Pacific look strong and are not aging and are more up and coming.
We can easily steal even if this choice is #15. The 2023 draft is better, but I like the depth of the 2022 draft to the top 20, maybe top 15.
 
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Dingo44

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Imagining a collapse of vegas team this year and next forcing them into a rebuild is... Interesting

I doubt they could do that next year, if their 2023 pick slides to us next year and they still have a ton of long-term high-price contracts. Plus Jack's NMC kicks in and I can see them trying to sell him on another rebuild after leaving here.

They could suck but they're going to have to try to make do with what they have for at least a couple more years.
 

Chainshot

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The one guy for 2023 that I haven't had ability to watch yet in Fantilli in game action. He seems like someone who will stay in the top 5 conversation because he has size on his side, to go along with the dynamic skill. Even if he flattens out a bit (not saying he will), he's a big, aggressive dude.
 

Chainshot

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Beddard
Michkov
Fantelli
Benson
Dvorsky
Jarventie
Yager
Ritchie
Carlsson


2023 is looking really, really good right now at the very top. It'll be interesting to see if we have new emerging players (which always happens) and who out of the initially identified crop falters a bit (which happens) or gets way over-scouted (which happens). Do not move the 2023 first right now. That pick, if the pingpong balls fall, could be a brilliant player even if Buffalo has a good season and advances up the standings further without making a playoff push.
 
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MarkusKetterer

Shoulda got one game in
Beddard
Michkov
Fantelli
Benson
Dvorsky
Jarventie
Yager
Ritchie
Carlsson


2023 is looking really, really good right now at the very top. It'll be interesting to see if we have new emerging players (which always happens) and who out of the initially identified crop falters a bit (which happens) or gets way over-scouted (which happens). Do not move the 2023 first right now. That pick, if the pingpong balls fall, could be a brilliant player even if Buffalo has a good season and advances up the standings further without making a playoff push.

It’s also the year Radek Bonk’s son is available to be drafted.
 

Faceboner

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Jan 6, 2022
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Beddard
Michkov
Fantelli
Benson
Dvorsky
Jarventie
Yager
Ritchie
Carlsson


2023 is looking really, really good right now at the very top. It'll be interesting to see if we have new emerging players (which always happens) and who out of the initially identified crop falters a bit (which happens) or gets way over-scouted (which happens). Do not move the 2023 first right now. That pick, if the pingpong balls fall, could be a brilliant player even if Buffalo has a good season and advances up the standings further without making a playoff push.
Also that musty home grown
 
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