Prospect Info: 2023 HFDevils Prospect Rankings #3
- Thread starter Nubmer6
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Guadana
Registered User
I don't see any problem with general sentiment. Its not a surprise like no one never said that he has some issues with him game. His floor wasn't high from the beginning. And still overall ranking from different people is from three to six. Its no where underrating. Its just worries about his forechecking, 200 foot game without the puck. I believe he is nhler, he needs time, patience, right roster spot. Less pressure.
And ofcourse its not a time to pencil him off, he has two years of elc.
it’s ok to have top 10 u22 khl point producer with good skating or 23 yo goalie with perfect LDS% and great physicality higher than Holtz.
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Holtz-Casey-Gritsyuk-Schmid for me.
These rankings are pretty much a ceiling+floor+confidence in hitting it equation for me and Holtz still wins that in my mind. His skating is a question mark in our system, but I think his floor is middle six scoring winger on bad teams. Casey is extremely promising but there's no shortage of promising undersized D that excell in college to give me pause until he translates it to the pros. Gritsyuk has a similar floor to Holtz in my eyes, but I think Holtz has a higher ceiling. I've been hurt by promising young goalies too many times, sorry Akira.
All of them are very close together. I wouldn't blame someone for choosing any of them here
These rankings are pretty much a ceiling+floor+confidence in hitting it equation for me and Holtz still wins that in my mind. His skating is a question mark in our system, but I think his floor is middle six scoring winger on bad teams. Casey is extremely promising but there's no shortage of promising undersized D that excell in college to give me pause until he translates it to the pros. Gritsyuk has a similar floor to Holtz in my eyes, but I think Holtz has a higher ceiling. I've been hurt by promising young goalies too many times, sorry Akira.
All of them are very close together. I wouldn't blame someone for choosing any of them here
Billdo
Registered User
RememberTheName
Conductor of the Schmid Bandwagon
First, second, it doesn't really matter. Either way, I was there and I'll always be there to defend my boy Akira haha
2021 prospect rankings, I started voting Schimd in at the #12 ranked prospect poll, where I was the only vote. Up until #20, 1-3 people would vote for him per poll, and we finally concluded with Schmid getting a grand total of 4(!) votes for him in the #20 poll. I honestly would've voted him higher but in my opinion it's really hard to justify goalies that high in a ranking when they haven't proven it at the professional level yet no matter how good they might look at lower levels. He was my #11 ranked prospect just ahead of Nico Daws, who I ranked #12 and HFDevils ranked #16.
Billdo
Registered User
Im just busting balls. I have been talking about him since our 2018 prospect polls, so I am right there with ya.
Better Call Sal
Salnalysis
I’m sticking with Holtz. Make or break year and he still possesses a skill set that can be valuable for this team. Last year was tough for me to truly gauge when he became victim of the team’s success. I wish he had been sent down earlier for his sake, but I still believe he can be a player with the right opportunity.
Add Daws, s’il vous plait.
Add Daws, s’il vous plait.
Saugus
Ecrasez l'infame!
I think this should be Schmid just because we saw flashes of the very high ceiling for him this past season.
Holtz and Casey would also be reasonable picks here, but I think Schmid gets the edge.
Add Bardakov.
Holtz and Casey would also be reasonable picks here, but I think Schmid gets the edge.
Add Bardakov.
DevilsHughes86
Dance with the Devil
JimEIV
Registered User
- Feb 19, 2003
- 66,165
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I don't think it was that hard of a line up to crack over the last last two years...
we watched Mercer from the same draft class do it quite successfully.
The contrast of those two players trajectories should give some perspective...today we're debating whether Holtz is the 3 to 6 best prospect in our system while simultaneously talking about locking up Mercer to a long-term deal. At one point we considered these two prospects "close"
Cracking the line up was rather simple for Holtz. He's had opportunity at the end of 2021-22, the beginning and middle of 2022-23.... it wasn't opportunity that held him back it was performance.
Today the lineup is without a doubt significantly more difficult for him to crack than it was the previous two years but he also squandered opportunity.
Edit: none of this is to say he is not a viable NHL candidate... it is solely to say that he should fall on our prospect list... nothing more.
Hischier and Hughes
“I love to hockey”
- Jan 28, 2018
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that means the same can happen for Holtz!
we could be discussing him for 3rd to 6th best prospect
but then he could have a big season for us
and then in two years be discussed for a longterm contract!
im sticking with holtz here. but as others have said, this is probably the year that will tell us whether or not he is deserved of that spot.
JimEIV
Registered User
- Feb 19, 2003
- 66,165
- 28,503
Maybe, not ruling it out...but in two years he'll be 24 years old...he'll be 22 this season....there are guys on this list that we hope will have much better trajectories than that, wouldn't you agree?
We have guys like Mercer, Luke and Nemec, potentially others, that aren't/won't be prospect eligible at 22 years old and their careers will be well underway.
The "in two years" is exactly why I think he should be dropped on our list a few notches.
- May 8, 2010
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I’m going Holtz here, but Gritsyuk, Casey and Schmid are right there for me right now. If Holtz doesn’t show something this season, I doubt I’ll have him at 3 on next year’s poll.
Hischier and Hughes
“I love to hockey”
- Jan 28, 2018
- 9,408
- 4,357
good point!
i agree, i thought Holtz would have stuck last season
but maybe its a factor of how good we became vs how bad Holtz is?
maybe he would have stuck if this was 18-19 all over again and expectations were low
i have faith! his shot would be huge for us
Also going with Schmid here. Yes a goalie, but clearly more proven than any other prospect available and he's shown he turn in above-average NHL play.
Unfortunately I won't be selecting Holtz for a few slots.
I was never as high on Holtz as consensus from the time he was drafted.
I just think the "translatability" of prospects whose best attribute is their shot, but don't have another plus trait (i.e. acceleration/skating, vision, puck skills, or motor) is not great.
Sounds bad, but I would be shopping Holtz to get an NHL roster upgrade before the shine wears off of Holtz's value.
I think it's a little disingenuous to say Holtz has been given a lot of opportunity. He played 9 games in 21-22 and averaged 10 minutes per game at even strength and 2 minutes on the powerplay. Last year he only played 19 games, averaged 8 minutes a game even strength and 1:39 on the powerplay. His most common 5v5 line mates over his career by a wide margin were Boqvist and Sharangovich, neither of which are particularly gifted playmakers. Comparatively he's only played for about 14 minutes with Hughes and Bratt, which is a line that would make a lot of sense for him. He played more minutes with Zacha than he has with Hischier, and spent almost as much time with McLeod (40 minutes) as he did with either of them.
Here are the gaps in days between games he played this year as well as time on ice:
(14:36) 2 days (9:20) 3 days (5:55) 8 days (12:29) 34 days (10:02) 3 days (15:07) 2 days (7:03) 3 days (11:59) 3 days (9:46) 3 days (4:14) 3 days (15:08) 2 days (9:51) 3 days (10:26) 3 days (7:34) 7 days (5:47) 5 days (13:21) 1 day (13:34) 2 days (8:55) 35 days (9:52).
It just wasn't consistent enough playing time for any meaningful progression to occur. He was given a little bit of runway to start the season but by his third game he was only given 6 minutes, then played one game in 42 days, got essentially a 14 game stretch after that but that was the period of the year where the lines were constantly in a blender and his ice time was all over the place. He was played like a 14th forward and got 14th forward results. I'm not saying he deserved more, but his performance last year doesn't push the needle in the wrong direction either.
Meanwhile, he has 32 goals, 62 points in 66 AHL games over those same seasons and 1G, 7A in 11 playoff games. I can buy an argument that Gritsyuk's performance in the KHL is more impressive, but it's not like there's no track record as a pro here. I want to see him actually play regularly before I write him off.
Here are the gaps in days between games he played this year as well as time on ice:
(14:36) 2 days (9:20) 3 days (5:55) 8 days (12:29) 34 days (10:02) 3 days (15:07) 2 days (7:03) 3 days (11:59) 3 days (9:46) 3 days (4:14) 3 days (15:08) 2 days (9:51) 3 days (10:26) 3 days (7:34) 7 days (5:47) 5 days (13:21) 1 day (13:34) 2 days (8:55) 35 days (9:52).
It just wasn't consistent enough playing time for any meaningful progression to occur. He was given a little bit of runway to start the season but by his third game he was only given 6 minutes, then played one game in 42 days, got essentially a 14 game stretch after that but that was the period of the year where the lines were constantly in a blender and his ice time was all over the place. He was played like a 14th forward and got 14th forward results. I'm not saying he deserved more, but his performance last year doesn't push the needle in the wrong direction either.
Meanwhile, he has 32 goals, 62 points in 66 AHL games over those same seasons and 1G, 7A in 11 playoff games. I can buy an argument that Gritsyuk's performance in the KHL is more impressive, but it's not like there's no track record as a pro here. I want to see him actually play regularly before I write him off.
SteveCangialosi123
Registered User
I think his overall play with the puck is pretty good, not just his shot. I like his playmaking ability. And I think his skating is just below average, not sloth-like. He’s faster than Toffoli, for example.
He clearly needs to make a jump in his overall game and awareness in general. He will never make it with the shot rate he managed in his limited time last year.
We have the ability to construct some lines that really hide his deficiencies, even away from our top centers. I could see Palat-Haula-Holtz working. Two high motor defensively responsible vets.
I was not a fan of the Holtz pick, I wanted Rossi or Perfetti, but I voted for him at #3 because he has produced and progressed in the AHL, and when he has gotten extended looks on real scoring lines (e.g. preseason last year) he excelled.
I like Filmon too but you cannot be serious mentioning him here. He has a long way to go before he’s at Holtz’s level.
Agreed he is a better skater than someone like Toffoli, but coaches trust a Toffoli because the defensive awareness and work rate is there. A high-end sniper (but without shot volume), with below-average skating, good-but-not-NHL-plus puckskills, below average defensive game and work rate...to me that player type just isn't really going to translate to being a good top-six forward. Although of course the AHL production is encouraging.
I kind of disagree with the bolded though. It's hard to fit Holtz in the lineup because he isn't going to displace any top-six forward, but the Palat - Haula combo is also probably going to be utilized in more difficult defensive deployment/matchups - also not a great place for Holtz.
I think McLeod and Bastian will get the defensive assignments. The third line is another scoring line, my only concern with Haula and Palat is I don’t know if they have enough play driving ability to get the most out of Holtz.
I think Holtz should be favored for a top six role, and one of the veteran scoring wingers (Bratt, Meier, Mercer, Toffoli) should be on the third line with Haula and Palat.
My preference might be Bratt because of his ability to produce away from Hughes and Hischier, and elevate whoever he plays with
Meier - Hughes - Holtz
Toffoli - Hischier - Mercer
Bratt - Haula - Palat
