Speculation: 2023-24 Sharks Roster Discussion

[Grinner]

It's not a "top 15 pick" - it's the 14th pick. We know what pick it is. And players drafted in that slot typically develop into...middle of the lineup players. But middle of the lineup players are important! So why not use the pick to acquire a guaranteed one, signed long term at a good number, rather than risk drafting an outright bust?

"2nd pair defender in his 30s" routinely describes important pieces of Cup winning teams. Just off the top of my head McNabb, Martinez, Manson, McDonagh (not sure why their names all start with M lol) and Bouwmeester all fit that description in recent years. With the exception of Manson they were also all acquired several seasons prior to the championship and helped mentor the team's younger core.

I would honestly hesitate to give up the 14th pick for Byram given his concussion history. I want to see how a full season in Buffalo goes first. And I don't think 14th would be enough for Miller or that it makes sense for the Rangers to trade him right now. Maybe 14+32+Bystedt+Ferraro for Miller+Goodrow?

Oof!

 

[Le Rosbeef]

I encourage everyone to look at the list of players selected 14th over the past 20 years or so. Not many guys better than Cernak on there.

That doesn't make Cernak worth a 14th overall pick.

Both these things can be true. And they are.

In absolute isolation, he may be worth that.
In our present circumstances, looking at the bigger rebuild picture, absolutely not.

 

[STL Shark]

"Top 15" implies less variability among the value of each of the top 15 picks than there really is. There's a huge dropoff from say the 7th pick to the 10th pick, and another one from 10th to 14th. And yeah technically we're only 98.5% sure it's the 14th pick.

Who said we're getting Cernak to immediately compete? This team just gave up 150 more goals than it scored - we're not a McDavid away from competing. Acquiring Cernak now would mostly be to capitalize on a brief window where we may be able to "trap" a good player, Winnipeg-style, on a contract that should age nicely by preying on a team with cap issues. This is exactly the type of thing we should be using our ample cap space and assets to do this offseason.

As for overpaying a similar defenseman on the free agent market, why not do both? Like you said, we're far from a Cernak away from competing. We're not a Cernak and $7Mx3 Tanev away from competing either but why not make a good faith effort to become moderately more competitive and give both the goaltenders and the young skill players we'll be bringing in more leeway?

The biggest difference in every instance of goalpost moving that you've done is that none of those teams that are trading for these types of players just finished last place in the league in one of the worst seasons in cap era history. Those types of teams should not be trading "14th overall picks" for non-impact players that are going to be on the downside of their career whenever said team's core is ready to make the playoffs.

Trading for a Cernak type player is a move that you make whenever you're in a spot like where NJD was last year where their core that they built via years of good drafting is young and proven to not be busts (Hischier, Hughes, Bratt, Mercer, etc.) and you have guys still coming behind them in waves (Hughes, Nemec, Casey, Holtz) to supplement them.

We think our system is great (and for prospect pools it is solid), but nobody out of that system outside of Eklund has proven to be an NHL player yet, nonetheless a good one. Until we get to the point where we've graduated the Smith, Eklund, Musty, Muk, etc. types into the league and still have another wave coming then it's too early to trade premium picks for 27 year old middle of the lineup guys.

If whoever we draft at 14th overall turns into Cernak, everyone will be ecstatic. The difference is that he will turn into Cernak where we're getting the player's prime years rather than paying for a players post-prime years like would be the case with Cernak (where the final years of his prime will be while we're not competing for anything).

 

[TheWayToRefJose]

Can we shut the f*** up about Cernak? There’s only one person here who thinks it’s a good idea. Everyone else doesn’t think it’s a good idea. There’s no way there should be 4 pages of talking about it.

 

[jMoneyBrah]

… so, my thoughts on Cernak …

I think the key thing here is the top 14 pick can generally turn into a Cernak player.. but with an outside chance to be much more. He’ll also be 8 years younger.

Cernak is what he is, but I’d rather take a swing on a potentially very young middle lineup player with a high ceiling. I just don’t super think we need him just yet, or need to make trades for guys like him yet. Maybe after next season.

This. While in general I think Hodge’s point about diversifying the talent pool and using trades to get certainty at mid-roster roles is fair and cogent, IMO Cernak is not all that exciting to me and it’s just a little early to be trading out 1sts for role players. Players like Cernak shake loose every year. I’d prefer a little patience for the next draft or two. In the shorter term I’d like to see Grier look at bringing in vets via free agency on short term overpaid contracts (I mean, like, over pay if he has to, don’t just be splashin’ money around needlessly)

Also while the pick is 14 as of now, it could be bundled with one of the seconds to move up a few slots to grab a player the Sharks liked and had projected as a top 10 if they slide even just a little.

 

[Gecklund]

Can we shut the f*** up about Cernak? There’s only one person here who thinks it’s a good idea. Everyone else doesn’t think it’s a good idea. There’s no way there should be 4 pages of talking about it.

I don’t think there are many people who think Cernak isn’t a good idea. It’s more trading 14th overall for Cernak that we all think is a bad plan except one person.

A few other possible cap casualties I’d want to look at: Liljegren, Nic Roy, Whitecloud, Girard, Manson, Hronek, Hoglander, Geekie, Frederic, Carlo, Kakko, Trouba, any of the Cs out of FLA

Will all these guys move? Definitely not and I honestly didn’t fully look at all the cap situations so some of these teams might not even be in cap trouble after next year but these are all teams will high cap hits this season.

 

[coooldude]

I would be shocked if Grier DID NOT target someone in the following UFA pool this offseason. Whether we actually sign them or not is obviously unclear. Dillon, DeMelo, Pesce, Skjei, Myers, and various others like them... veterans that are better than Rutta, still have some years in them, on a 2-3 year deal at 3-5MM, or the Skjei/Pesce 5 years/ 6-7MM kind of level (don't crucify me, maybe higher, maybe lower, I don't really care, I think he'll kick the tires, but no more than 5 years term).

The Cernak debate is about more than Cernak (Per @Gecklund post just above). I think a lot of people would be OK with a trade for a player like this, I don't think very many of us are OK with trading 14OA or an asset like Bystedt for him or like him. But it is a relevant discussion and it's not out of the realm of possibility if Hasso is getting itchy after that horrendous season.

Given what Grier said, I don't think he'd add term for 7 years, as he said looking for more 3-4 year terms or "5 if we really like the player" but if he did, it would be with a 27 year old or younger.

We do need a trade or signing in the top 4 of our D so that we can push everyone down the lineup one slot. Ideally 2 of them. Could give us a shot to finish bottom 5 (but still likely bottom 3). With 2 picks next year, we could be rolling in excellent prospects by June 2025. IMHO that's what we need, so any trade should not give up a top 5 prospect of ours (maybe we see Bords or Gushchin moved though).

 

[zombie kopitar]

I can tell you that not one Kings fan thinks this season was a success for them.

good

 

[TheBeard]

I don’t think there are many people who think Cernak isn’t a good idea. It’s more trading 14th overall for Cernak that we all think is a bad plan except one person.

A few other possible cap casualties I’d want to look at: Liljegren, Nic Roy, Whitecloud, Girard, Manson, Hronek, Hoglander, Geekie, Frederic, Carlo, Kakko, Trouba, any of the Cs out of FLA

Will all these guys move? Definitely not and I honestly didn’t fully look at all the cap situations so some of these teams might not even be in cap trouble after next year but these are all teams will high cap hits this season.

I love Hronek and Carlo but I doubt either will be available. Nic Roy I like a lot and Frederic as well, but not sure if we need another 3rd line center.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I love Hronek and Carlo but I doubt either will be available. Nic Roy I like a lot and Frederic as well, but not sure if we need another 3rd line center.

I think the team does if we win the Celebrini lottery. Another center to push Sturm to 4C is a good idea. If we don't win the lottery then I don't think we do because it's another season where we're going to lose a lot and the lineup doesn't really matter much so Sturm can keep getting smacked around playing 3C.

 

[Mattb124]

With the current cap constraints across the league coupled with the Sharks ample available cap, players like Cernak could be available in free agency or in trade with the potential for sweeteners attached. Trading significant positive value for a player whose age doesn’t align with our rebuild doesn’t make much sense, and trading 14th OA in a draft where the difference between the ~5th-14th consensus players is so narrow is plain foolish IMO.

 

[Gecklund]

I love Hronek and Carlo but I doubt either will be available. Nic Roy I like a lot and Frederic as well, but not sure if we need another 3rd line center.

Both Hronek and Carlo I’ve seen tossed around as possible dumps by fans. Odds are they’re kept for sure but figured I’d throw them in.

As for the Cs I pretty strongly disagree. We had 2 Cs at the end of last year (Sturm and Granlund) that belonged in an NHL lineup. Even if Couture is healthy and we get Celebrini and Smith turns pro, I’d still argue we should target those guys at the right price. Couture should probably be a winger and I’m a big advocate on rookie Cs either not playing C or having another C to help with the defensive work and other C duties. Both Roy and Frederic can play wing and play it well.

 

[Shark in Hockeytown]

Even if the expectation that a late first/second round pick turns out to be a quality addition (top 6 forward, top 4 dman, #1 goalie) is low, like 10-20%, the variance also matters. When those picks hit, you have the player for 10-15 years, including their peak years, and they become part of your foundation. Boston and now Dallas built contending teams around star players taken then or later. Trading for a veteran like Cernak may promise a higher expectation, but you only get the player for 6 years and hope he does not go down hill quickly as some but not all do.

 

[TheBeard]

Both Hronek and Carlo I’ve seen tossed around as possible dumps by fans. Odds are they’re kept for sure but figured I’d throw them in.

As for the Cs I pretty strongly disagree. We had 2 Cs at the end of last year (Sturm and Granlund) that belonged in an NHL lineup. Even if Couture is healthy and we get Celebrini and Smith turns pro, I’d still argue we should target those guys at the right price. Couture should probably be a winger and I’m a big advocate on rookie Cs either not playing C or having another C to help with the defensive work and other C duties. Both Roy and Frederic can play wing and play it well.

Frederic is going to end up getting big money on the open market. I'm seeing 5-5.5 a season for a 26 year old who's consistently getting better every year. If we're playing Granlund at 1C and Celebrini or Smith at 2C then I don't see where Trent fits in unless he's moved to the wing. Bruins would probably move Coyle before they let Trent walk.

Hronek and Carlo are also two names that I can't see moving. Hronek is gonna get a lot on the open market if he's allowed to walk and Carlo at 4.1 with Boston is just too good a deal for them to give him up for less than absurd value.

Which leaves Nic Roy, but he's still got two more years after this left on his deal at 3 per. What's his trade value? a 2nd maybe?

 

[TheBeard]

I think the team does if we win the Celebrini lottery. Another center to push Sturm to 4C is a good idea. If we don't win the lottery then I don't think we do because it's another season where we're going to lose a lot and the lineup doesn't really matter much so Sturm can keep getting smacked around playing 3C.

I don't mind bringing in a 3C, but Trent is gonna cost. We're probably gonna go Kunin at 3C or maybe bring in someone like Matt Duschene or, hell, Pavelski if Dallas wins the cup.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I don't mind bringing in a 3C, but Trent is gonna cost. We're probably gonna go Kunin at 3C or maybe bring in someone like Matt Duschene or, hell, Pavelski if Dallas wins the cup.

I'd rather pay Frederic than pay Kunin but everyone here knows my feelings on Kunin. They should cut bait with him.

 

[TheBeard]

I'd rather pay Frederic than pay Kunin but everyone here knows my feelings on Kunin. They should cut bait with him.

I mean, Trent's a better player but he'll also make twice as much and ask for a much longer deal.

 

[Lebanezer]

The most important parts of the rebuild are the early 1st round picks. There is no real reason to start moving around those assets until the core of the team is more established. In 2 or 3 years trading a mid 1st round pick might make sense to address any glaring issues, but as it is right now, the Sharks just need to build a core in the same age range as Will Smith. Anyone older than Eklund who costs more than like a 3rd or 4th isn't essential.

 

[Eklund72]

Trading 1st round picks for large contracts is exactly how we got to where we are. Build through the draft like Chicago, Colorado, Tampa, LA and Pittsburg did. Once our drafted core is succeeding in the NHL we can trade picks for established players.

Get veteran leadership from free agency (2-4 year contracts preferably) to help the young guys short term.

 

[one2gamble]

I'd rather pay Frederic than pay Kunin but everyone here knows my feelings on Kunin. They should cut bait with him.

I mean that's because he's bad

 

[hotcabbagesoup]

We just gotta make a move on it though.

Cristiano Ronaldo's contract with Al-Nassr is up in 2025. Imagine Ronaldo joining the San Jose Earthquakes to take on Messi. The MLS will explode and scoop up all the money. Sharks market share will drastically fall and we may have to relocate.

So we gotta find a way to compete for the ploffs next season. Get a real defenseman. Save this franchise.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I mean, Trent's a better player but he'll also make twice as much and ask for a much longer deal.

I don’t know if Frederic would get six mil but I’d be happy to not spend it on either lol

 

[LadyStanley]

 

[LadyStanley]

Smith may also be waiting to see what team does for new head coach before making decision.

 

[Celly4Celebrini]

Wild idea: Marner? We have tons of cap room, hes going to go for cheap, and could fit in on the wing.

I know his contract is long, but if we could get him for like Blackwood+Ferraro+Boudreau and mix in some picks/prospects?

Yes that likely isnt enough, but if the Leafs would take it.