GDT: 2023-24 season game 9 LA Kings vs Toronto Maple Leafs @5:00pm 10/31/23

[Chazz Reinhold]

Kings are bottom half in the league in goals against. If the Kings are structurally sound, and the five players are more important than the goalie, then why are more goals being scored against the Kings than over half the league?

You're adding words that I didn't use; I didn't say that the players in front of the goalie are more important than the goalie. I said that the players in front of the goalie are the only ones who can affect the quality of chances the goalie faces; the goalie does not play a role in a team's ability to limit quality chances against (i.e., defending against the other team). The goalie plays a role in the goals-against results but does not play a role in how good (or not) a team is at limiting quality looks for the opposition.

As it regards your ultimate question, outside of a couple of games, the Kings have received poor goaltending (and this dates to last year, too, when the Kings had the second best defensive environment for goaltenders in the league going by the public models). The original comment that started this was that TSN was out to lunch by saying the Kings are a good defensive team. It is 100% correct that the Kings are a good defensive team, and they have been for the past few years. A team can play good defense, allowing mostly low quality shots, and still allow a lot of goals due to poor goaltending.

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

Where does one find all these cool analytical stats that you all post? Is their a particular nhl app you recommend for seeing these things?

I know for soccer there are a few apps I use that have cool Xg info and stats like player ratings, heat maps, distance covered, speed, etc.

What's the best source for NHL stuff?

Some good places:

MoneyPuck.com -NHL Analytics, Playoff Odds, Power Rankings, Player Stats

Follow NHL games live and watch odds change in real time. Playoff odds, player & team stats too

moneypuck.com

JFreshHockey | Patreon

Creating NHL analytics-based visualization cards.

www.patreon.com

Natural Stat Trick

NHL EDGE Puck and Player Tracking Statistics - Home (not so much advanced stats but its the player tracking data)

HockeyStatCards.com

www.hockeystatcards.com

All Three Zones by Corey Sznajder (he manually tracks games to record more granular information, such as zone exits and entries)

Evolving-Hockey

evolving-hockey.com

Clear Sight Analytics is one of the private models that gathers way more data points for its modeling. It will occasionally post some rankings of teams at various points of the season. E.g., last year's chances for/chances against rankings: Contact Us | United States | Clear Sight Analytics

 

[Maynard]

god i'm so sick of f***ing dooley's clickbait

he tweets out "a few guys"

like f***ing WHO!

All the media guys are atrocious. It’s not their fault I guess. They’re amateur hobbyists, completely unfit for the jobs they have been given. Now they’ve got their podcasters doing Mercury Insurance infomercials.

 

[Bandit]

Curious how they decided Toronto's 1st and second lines "changed" when it's the same guys on both lines. Smells like bullshit to me.

But more importantly--all of the narratives about the Kings for the entire 23-24 season will be solidified tonight in the eyes of east coast and canadian viewers

At least they'll f*** off for the rest of the season...

 

[SaltyElkHunter]

Call it what you want.

View attachment 761417

I'll call it a dominant team stopped from becoming not just a contender but a FAVORITE by mediocre special teams and goaltending.

You spelled coaching with too many words.

 

[Schrute farms]

Call it what you want.

View attachment 761417

I'll call it a dominant team stopped from becoming not just a contender but a FAVORITE by mediocre special teams and goaltending.

Come on RJ -- hindsight is 20/20. Easy to say now. Where were you before the season, summer, last season, year before, etc. Oh wait....never mind

 

[King'sPawn]

You're adding words that I didn't use; I didn't say that the players in front of the goalie are more important than the goalie. I said that the players in front of the goalie are the only ones who can affect the quality of chances the goalie faces; the goalie does not play a role in a team's ability to limit quality chances against (i.e., defending against the other team). The goalie plays a role in the goals-against results but does not play a role in how good (or not) a team is at limiting quality looks for the opposition.

As it regards your ultimate question, outside of a couple of games, the Kings have received poor goaltending (and this dates to last year, too, when the Kings had the second best defensive environment for goaltenders in the league going by the public models). The original comment that started this was that TSN was out to lunch by saying the Kings are a good defensive team. It is 100% correct that the Kings are a good defensive team, and they have been for the past few years. A team can play good defense, allowing mostly low quality shots, and still allow a lot of goals due to poor goaltending.

Sorry, I misread.

I think my issue with the Kings are solid defensively statement is that a lot of their big forwards aren't. Namely Grundstrom, Dubois, Fiala, Laferriere, Kaliyev, Kempe, and Byfield at least need a bit of work to improve defensively. That's over half the forward corps. And Kopitar, while still my favorite player, has lost a step defensively.

They implement a structure that complements their deficiencies, so maybe it's just semantics on my side.

 

[Bandit]

Also don’t look now but Byfield and Toaster Strudel have the same number of goals so far this year.

 

[Sol]

I’m still waiting for Byfield to get one past the keeper by an actual shot lol. Dude makes Stoll on the verge of retirement look like the greatest sniper who’s ever lived. Shit even Scuderi probably had a better shot than he does. Byfield could have had like 10 goals by now. Lol. But he’s definitely playing better the last couple games. He just needs to stop aiming for International Space Station.

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

Sorry, I misread.

I think my issue with the Kings are solid defensively statement is that a lot of their big forwards aren't. Namely Grundstrom, Dubois, Fiala, Laferriere, Kaliyev, Kempe, and Byfield at least need a bit of work to improve defensively. That's over half the forward corps. And Kopitar, while still my favorite player, has lost a step defensively.

They implement a structure that complements their deficiencies, so maybe it's just semantics on my side.

No worries, lumbergh did use the word important but I was responding specifically related to who affects the ability to limit quality chances against. You’re absolutely correct some of the individual forwards would not be considered good defensive forwards (like Kopitar is). I think it’s fair to say that Todd’s system does a good job of limiting individual shortcomings defensively.

 

[chris kontos]

Paul maurice says that a teams first game back from a roadtrip is "the roast beef and red wine game" which having eaten this meal on first nite home, makes the team sluggish and slow to react.
You cant determine or indicate shit from one of these games-the're complete outliers.

 

[King'sPawn]

I’m still waiting for Byfield to get one past the keeper by an actual shot lol. Dude makes Stoll on the verge of retirement look like the greatest sniper who’s ever lived.

Just to give a few.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

The fadeaway away from Draisaitl



A little bit of work on his release will go a long way, he was used to having lots of space and time in JRs and his shot setup took far too long, still see that haunt him a bit in the NHL but it's MUCh better this year already.

 

[kingsfan28]

Call it what you want.

View attachment 761417

I'll call it a dominant team stopped from becoming not just a contender but a FAVORITE by mediocre special teams and goaltending.

I'm just a simple cave man hockey fan. Advance stats confuse me.

 

[King'sPawn]

Here's his first career NHL goal.



I know he doesn't have as many goals as we'd like, but much like everything else discussed about him, it's not nearly as bad as some people make it out to be.

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

Here's his first career NHL goal.



I know he doesn't have as many goals as we'd like, but much like everything else discussed about him, it's not nearly as bad as some people make it out to be.

You could apply that to every single topic on this board.

 

[tny760]

Here's his first career NHL goal.



I know he doesn't have as many goals as we'd like, but much like everything else discussed about him, it's not nearly as bad as some people make it out to be.

look at that cute little stick

 

[Fishhead]

Paul maurice says that a teams first game back from a roadtrip is "the roast beef and red wine game" which having eaten this meal on first nite home, makes the team sluggish and slow to react.
You cant determine or indicate shit from one of these games-the're complete outliers.

Except for the all the times when teams come home off of road trips and beat the crap out of their opponents.

This is just one of the many ways people justify bad games and make it not the player's fault, when that's exactly what it is. It's just making excuses for playing poorly.

 

[kingsfan28]

Except for the all the times when teams come home off of road trips and beat the crap out of their opponents.

This is just one of the many ways people justify bad games and make it not the player's fault, when that's exactly what it is. It's just making excuses for playing poorly.

It was an absolute excuse fest for the Leafs last night, and ESPN made sure you knew it.

 

[Fishhead]

The Kings tend to have a lower expected goals against because when they utilize a 1-3-1 at certain points in games. Expected goals is heavily weighted towards the middle of the ice. Teams have to beat the 1-3-1 with speed, so most of their better chances are guys streaking down the wing which is exactly what we usually see. I wish xGA weighted these higher because a guy flying down the wing is a lot more dangerous than a guy trying to force a shot in a clogged up middle, even if he is outside of the slot.

It's far from a useless stat, it's just that there is a big system component to it. I find xGF more telling than its counterpart.

 

[chris kontos]

Except for the all the times when teams come home off of road trips and beat the crap out of their opponents.

This is just one of the many ways people justify bad games and make it not the player's fault, when that's exactly what it is. It's just making excuses for playing poorly.

The point is you cant tell shit from a game like this.
Once again, attempting to discover a trend or establish a pattern in a blowout game like last night is stupid.
Not making excuses for anybody- just relating an anecdote i heard from a stanley cup finalist head coach. I dont think it would have made any difference ti me if before the game either team ate shit and barked at the moon

 

[Fishhead]

The point is you cant tell shit from a game like this

That can be said about every game. I'm not sure what a "game like this" is, I guess.

The 'first game back from a trip' fallacy was put to bed long ago with the advent of better stats. Winning percentage in those games is not significantly different than any other game.

 

[chris kontos]

That can be said about every game. I'm not sure what a "game like this" is, I guess.

The 'first game back from a trip' fallacy was put to bed long ago with the advent of better stats. Winning percentage in those games is not significantly different than any other game.

Ok ok
See my previous edit about eating shit and barking at the moon. Many you can apply aan advanced stat about how bad your breath gets

 

[bland]

That can be said about every game. I'm not sure what a "game like this" is, I guess.

The 'first game back from a trip' fallacy was put to bed long ago with the advent of better stats. Winning percentage in those games is not significantly different than any other game.

Oh it absolutely affects the players. The trick is to play a slower, heavier, more patient game and not get caught in a race with tired legs.

Toronto couldn't do that. They didn't play a more cautious game, they tried to run and gun and got smothered. A team like Vegas wouldn't be as encumbered by that as a team like Toronto, so using league-wide averages isn't going to tell you much.

 

[Fishhead]

Well Stanley Cup winning coaches say a lot of things, like Sutter. He used to say weird shit all the time when they lost. All he was doing was deflecting the fact that his team played like shit to take the onus off of them.

The Leafs got their butts kicked by a better team last night, plain and simple.