2023-24 Roster Thread #8: A Cam York State of Mind

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

#7 -- Confirmed with Link: - Carter Hart Officially Charged With One Count Of Sexual Assault (Per His Lawyers) (Site Rule #8 needs to be followed)

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[BackToTheBrierePatch]

I want to see more of Lycksell on the Flyers next week

 

[deadhead]

I thought Ersson was the better bet at goaltender well before the news came out, Hart is more athletic, but Ersson is more fundamentally sound - Hart makes amazing saves but also gives up too many softies, Ersson is steady, and should improve with experience.

Now whether Ersson will end up a top 5 or more in the 6-10 area is a good question. I think he'll be above average, but how far above average?

 

[BillDineen]

Hockey wise, the Hart situation may have kept their focus on the rebuild and we are lucky his departure occurred well ahead of the deadline.

Even Authentic fans dreams of a magical playoff run should be dead at this point.

 

[VladDrag]

I would love to see a first come back, but I am thinking Walker is probably the best asset move out, and I think they get something like a 2nd and future 3rd. They might get a conditional 1st rounder if Walker re-signs with the acquiring team, or if there is playoff/ice time conditions.

 

[Magua]

They might get a conditional 1st rounder if Walker re-signs with the acquiring team

Not allowed anymore fwiw. Agree with the rest.

I think they get the 1st if they packaged Seeler with Walker. But this team has shown it doesn’t grasp the concept of re-signing these culture depth guys, who “love it here,” to the same deals in July, if they can’t live without them (which is its own discussion).

 

[VladDrag]

Not allowed anymore fwiw. Agree with the rest.

I think they get the 1st if they packaged Seeler with Walker. But this team has shown it doesn’t grasp the concept of re-signing these culture depth guys, who “love it here,” to the same deals in July, if they can’t live without them (which is its own discussion).

Didn't know that! thanks for the info.

 

[Beef Invictus]

If they don't get a 1st...

 

[wankstifier]

If they don't get a 1st...

Then they can't say they're rebuilding anymore. They probably only have 3 picks in the first two rounds, right? I'm not sure if Columbus should be this terrible next season and the current front office will probably make the picks that they can.

 

[flyersnorth]

I thought Ersson was the better bet at goaltender well before the news came out, Hart is more athletic, but Ersson is more fundamentally sound - Hart makes amazing saves but also gives up too many softies, Ersson is steady, and should improve with experience.

Now whether Ersson will end up a top 5 or more in the 6-10 area is a good question. I think he'll be above average, but how far above average?

That's some pretty lofty expectations for a 5th rounder with 37 games of NHL experience.

 

[ponder719]

Then they can't say they're rebuilding anymore. They probably only have 3 picks in the first two rounds, right? I'm not sure if Columbus should be this terrible next season and the current front office will probably make the picks that they can.

They have their own #1, FLA's #1 provided it is 11-32 (if it's top 10, we get next year's pick), a compensatory 2nd round pick for not signing Jay O'Brien, and we will find out after the 1st round if we are getting Columbus's 2nd round pick this year or next year.

In an optimal world, we could have 2 picks each round, and a #1 and 2 #2s next year. In a pessimal world, we have 1 pick in each round, and in 2025 we have 2 1sts and 3 2nds.

The most likely outcome is 2 #1s and the compensatory #2 this year, and next year our own #1 and 3 2nds.

 

[deadhead]

That's some pretty lofty expectations for a 5th rounder with 37 games of NHL experience.

Where goalies are drafted is basically irrelevant, outside of a handful of first round picks.
Shesterkin was a 4th rd pick, Hellebuyck 5th, Swayman 4th, Demko 2nd, Saros 4th, and so on.

Ersson, after a rough start, has played like a top ten goalie - but it may take a couple years for him to develop the stamina (mentally and physically) to maintain that pace over 50 games.

And the one things the Flyers do well historically is develop goalies.

 

[LegionOfGloom]

I can't wait for everyone in the Charlie O'Connor sphere to take a rebuild victory lap after they trade Seeler for a third. Like what is the actual plan here? Do the Flyers really think the only thing between them and contention is more 3rd round picks?

 

[flyersnorth]

Where goalies are drafted is basically irrelevant, outside of a handful of first round picks.
Shesterkin was a 4th rd pick, Hellebuyck 5th, Swayman 4th, Demko 2nd, Saros 4th, and so on.

Ersson, after a rough start, has played like a top ten goalie - but it may take a couple years for him to develop the stamina (mentally and physically) to maintain that pace over 50 games.

And the one things the Flyers do well historically is develop goalies.

I don't disagree with you on draft position for goalies.

I think Ersson can certainly play like a top 5-10 goalie in a given stretch of hockey, provided he has the right team around him. I would say most NHL starters are capable of having 10, 20, 30 game stretches of top level play.

Ersson had an awful early stretch, and an awful last 3-4 games. So he's had high level play for about 16-18 games playing as the #1A, surrounded by a team that blocks a ton of shots. His save percentage was .899 last year and is .898 this year.

Alex Lyon has a .922 save percentage in 21 games with Detroit. He had a .914 in 15 games with Florida last year. I wouldn't consider him a top 10 goalie in the NHL.

So is Ersson more like Shesterkin and Hellebuyck, or more like Alex Lyon?

I think we need a lot more than 37 career NHL games, and that was the only point I was making.

 

[deadhead]

I can't wait for everyone in the Charlie O'Connor sphere to take a rebuild victory lap after they trade Seeler for a third. Like what is the actual plan here? Do the Flyers really think the only thing between them and contention is more 3rd round picks?

I want as many picks as possible in the top 100, later round picks are lottery tickets, but top 100 picks have a real shot at starting, if you look at draft charts, a 2nd and 3rd have about the same value as a late 1st rd pick. So if you can't get more 1sts, stockpile 2nd and 3rd rd picks, who also have significant trade value (Colorado got Toews for (2) 2nd rd picks).

The late round picks are more manna from heaven, if Gendron turns out to be the next Bratt, or Avon a Poehling type 4C or Sotheran a solid 3RD or . . . it's house money. But you can't count on the Hockey Gods smiling upon you.

 

[deadhead]

I don't disagree with you on draft position for goalies.

I think Ersson can certainly play like a top 5-10 goalie in a given stretch of hockey, provided he has the right team around him. I would say most NHL starters are capable of having 10, 20, 30 game stretches of top level play.

Ersson had an awful early stretch, and an awful last 3-4 games. So he's had high level play for about 16-18 games playing as the #1A, surrounded by a team that blocks a ton of shots. His save percentage was .899 last year and is .898 this year.

Alex Lyon has a .922 save percentage in 21 games with Detroit. He had a .914 in 15 games with Florida last year. I wouldn't consider him a top 10 goalie in the NHL.

So is Ersson more like Shesterkin and Hellebuyck, or more like Alex Lyon?

I think we need a lot more than 37 career NHL games, and that was the only point I was making.

Ersson had a horrid start due to sitting for weeks.
But remove first 3 games, xGA/60: 2.25, GA/60: 1.99. That's pretty good.

I think it may take a year or two for Ersson to get used to a heavy workload.
2019-20: 35 games
2020-21: 49 games
2021-22: 5 games
2022-23: 57 games
2023-24: 25 games so far

 

[FlyerNutter]

I don't disagree with you on draft position for goalies.

I think Ersson can certainly play like a top 5-10 goalie in a given stretch of hockey, provided he has the right team around him. I would say most NHL starters are capable of having 10, 20, 30 game stretches of top level play.

Ersson had an awful early stretch, and an awful last 3-4 games. So he's had high level play for about 16-18 games playing as the #1A, surrounded by a team that blocks a ton of shots. His save percentage was .899 last year and is .898 this year.

Alex Lyon has a .922 save percentage in 21 games with Detroit. He had a .914 in 15 games with Florida last year. I wouldn't consider him a top 10 goalie in the NHL.

So is Ersson more like Shesterkin and Hellebuyck, or more like Alex Lyon?

I think we need a lot more than 37 career NHL games, and that was the only point I was making.

Respectfully, you are arguing with the #1 defenseman of the Flyers.

Ersson has as much chance of being a flop as anyone. A lot easier to play with a safety net in Hart, and a lighter load.

See what happens to his confidence when Torts isn’t as infatuated as well.

 

[deadhead]

Respectfully, you are arguing with the #1 defenseman of the Flyers.

Ersson has as much chance of being a flop as anyone. A lot easier to play with a safety net in Hart, and a lighter load.

See what happens to his confidence when Torts isn’t as infatuated as well.

That goes for every goalie, even established ones, or why Peterson is making $5M.

But watching him, he's fundamentally sound, moves side to side well, doesn't make the spectacular save as much as Hart did, but is calm and smooth. That's more sustainable. Biggest issue is probably improving rebound control and knowing when to smother the puck and stop play.

Speaking of goalies, last night was the first time this year I saw Sandstrom look like a NHL goalie, thought he allowed a third goal he should have stopped. Some really good saves, though high effort, which is hard to sustain.

 

[Rebels57]

They should look to package Walker and Laughton together to the same team if that's what it takes to pry a 1st rounder. Right now Laughton's value has plummeted and if any other teams are paying attention to on-ice performance, Walkers should be as well.

 

[Larry44]

Not allowed anymore fwiw. Agree with the rest.

I think they get the 1st if they packaged Seeler with Walker. But this team has shown it doesn’t grasp the concept of re-signing these culture depth guys, who “love it here,” to the same deals in July, if they can’t live without them (which is its own discussion).

They have to try to get a 1st somehow. Walker + Laughton or Hathaway would give a contender some good depth for a 1st and prospect or other picks. I'd trade Risto if anyone wanted him. Seeler and Staal should go too. I don't think Atkinson will garner interest. Basically, trade everyone they can, bring up some kids and let's see what we've got. #AccidentalOnPurposeTank2024

 

[deadhead]

You get what you can get. Maximize value, if that's a late 1st, or (2) 2nds or . . .

 

[wankstifier]

If Laughton and Walker are packaged, the Flyers would have to take on a dump. I'd look at trading them separately for 2nds.

Why aren't we talking about moving York? Guessing his trade value is a 1st+. He shouldn't be a core piece

 

[deadhead]

If Laughton and Walker are packaged, the Flyers would have to take on a dump. I'd look at trading them separately for 2nds.

Why aren't we talking about moving York? Guessing his trade value is a 1st+. He shouldn't be a core piece

Why would we move York? He's 22. You can move him in two years if you develop a better LHD.
Trading a young player for late round picks hoping to draft a young player as good - fool's errand.

 

[Larry44]

If Laughton and Walker are packaged, the Flyers would have to take on a dump. I'd look at trading them separately for 2nds.

Why aren't we talking about moving York? Guessing his trade value is a 1st+. He shouldn't be a core piece

I'm OK taking a dumped contract back, if we're moving out money. A first plus something else is worth more than 2 x 2nds. A lot depends on our dance partners.

I'm not talking about trading York because he's turning out to be a pretty good player. Obviously no one is immune, but if you're looking at dealing York, then guys like Farabee and Frost have to be on the table too. And I'm sure they are for the right price, but I'm not sure we've seen the best of some of these guys yet. Trade the vets you can now. Next year at TDL, Atkinson will be a rental and Risto will be more attractive with only 2 yrs left, we could eat some salary.

Briere and Jones have an opportunity, with Voldemort's departure, to tear it down now. Let's see Lycksell more, bring Brink back, and give Helge, Attard, Andrae, Tuomaala, Desnoyers, etc. a chance. However many call ups we can do, do it.

 

[flyersnorth]

Ersson had a horrid start due to sitting for weeks.
But remove first 3 games, xGA/60: 2.25, GA/60: 1.99. That's pretty good.

I think it may take a year or two for Ersson to get used to a heavy workload.
2019-20: 35 games
2020-21: 49 games
2021-22: 5 games
2022-23: 57 games
2023-24: 25 games so far

It's certainly possible, but since he's been in North America, he's put up .893 and .900 over two seasons in the AHL, and .899 and .898 over two seasons in the NHL.

That doesn't scream future top 5-10 goalie in the NHL.

Of course, there's more to a top goalie than save percentage, and I would love it if he does become a top goalie, but a hot stretch of fewer than 20 games is not enough for me to believe otherwise at this point.