2022 NHL Draft — Sharks need to tank Wright

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themelkman

Always Delivers
Apr 26, 2015
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TopDownHockeys prospect projections for this year are out.

Heres our prospects for fun , not looking good for any stars other than Eklund. Eklund maintains the second best star chance in his draft other than Sillinger.
1656564919942.png
 

NiWa

Registered User
Nov 27, 2003
399
482
Ireland
Diving into those projections:

Assuming that these guys will go top 5:
  • tier 1 (star% > 75%): Wright, Jiricek, Nemec (the model loves all 3)
  • tier 1.5 (projected to go top 5): Slafkovsky (the model hates him), Cooley (the model has him #7, but only 21% Star%)

Next best realistic avail in order:
  • tier 2 (Star% > 30%): Kemell, Howard [probably best pick avail for Sharks), Savoie
  • tier 3 (Star% > 15%): Korchinski, Mateychuk, Geekie, Dolzhenkov (outlier pick acc. to scouting reports, you'd want to target him with a 2nd/3rd.), Nazar, McGroarty
  • tier 4 (Star% >10%) Mintyukov, Miroschnichenko, Gauthier
  • tier 5 (Star% >5%, Make% > 40%): Trikozov, Nyman, Hutson, Lekkerimaki, Nelson, Kyrou

Ranked highly by scouts, but not liked by the model:
Lekkerimaki, Yurov, Kaspar, Lambert => Hoping the Sharks stay clear.

Based on the above, I'd hope the Sharks would either:
  • Get lucky and pick Kemell or Savoie.
  • Pick up Howard (could gamble and trade down a few spots)
  • Target one of these tier 3 players: Korchinski, Geekie, Mateychuk

Now here's where it's interesting. If you like these guys about equally, and think some others may get picked before them, you could try and trade down a few spots to pick up a second round pick (See pick values: The Cost Of Moving Up In The NHL Draft )

Depending on how much you trade down, and what picks you gain, you pick what's best left avail from above with your first. You also still have consolation prizes avail in: Nazar, McGroarty
And with the picks earned from trading down, you could pick up one of these guys: Dolzhenkov (top target), or the tier 5 guys, e.g. Trikozov, Jani Nyman, Lane Hutson.
 

sharski

Registered User
Jun 4, 2012
5,668
4,701
This wait is unbearable. I need some hope, faith, optimism for my favorite sports team.. :scared::scared::scared:
I know. It’s all wrong. By rights we shouldn’t even be here. But we are. It’s like in the great stories hotcabbagesoup. The ones that really mattered. Full of darkness and danger they were, and sometimes you didn’t want to know the end. Because how could the end be happy. How could the world go back to the way it was when so much bad happened. But in the end, it’s only a passing thing, this shadow. Even darkness must pass. A new day will come. And when the sun shines it will shine out the clearer. Those were the stories that stayed with you. That meant something. Even if you were too small to understand why. But I think, hotcabbagesoup, I do understand. I know now. Folk in those stories had lots of chances of turning back only they didn’t. Because they were holding on to something.
 

Kcoyote3

Half-wall Hockey - link below!
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Apr 3, 2012
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San Jose Sharks
11. Joakim Kemell, RW, Jyp (FINLAND)
76. Oskar Pettersson, RW, Rogle Jr. (SWEDEN-JR.)
108. Cameron Whitehead, G, Lincoln (USHL)
138. David Spacek, RHD, Sherbrooke (QMJHL)
140. Ludwig Persson, LW, Frolunda Jr. (SWEDEN-JR.)
172. Alexandr Muromtsev, C, Belarus U18 (BELARUS-2)
195. Samu Bau, C, Hifk Jr. (FINLAND-JR.)
204. Keaton Dowhaniuk, LHD, Prince George (WHL)
217. Abram Wiebe, LHD, Chilliwack (BCHL)

That's a bleak draft.
 
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themelkman

Always Delivers
Apr 26, 2015
11,469
8,470
Calgary, Alberta

San Jose Sharks
11. Joakim Kemell, RW, Jyp (FINLAND)
76. Oskar Pettersson, RW, Rogle Jr. (SWEDEN-JR.)
108. Cameron Whitehead, G, Lincoln (USHL)
138. David Spacek, RHD, Sherbrooke (QMJHL)
140. Ludwig Persson, LW, Frolunda Jr. (SWEDEN-JR.)
172. Alexandr Muromtsev, C, Belarus U18 (BELARUS-2)
195. Samu Bau, C, Hifk Jr. (FINLAND-JR.)
204. Keaton Dowhaniuk, LHD, Prince George (WHL)
217. Abram Wiebe, LHD, Chilliwack (BCHL)

That's a bleak draft.
Love the first pick. None of the rest seem very interesting. Pronman usally has no idea though
 
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Kcoyote3

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Love the first pick. None of the rest seem very interesting. Pronman usally has no idea though
Agreed.

I'd do this:

San Jose Sharks
(11) Matthew Savoie, C
(76) Viktor Neuchev, LW
(108) Cedrick Guindon, C
(138) Hugo Havelid, G
(140) Jakob Noren, LD
(172) Avery Hayes, C
(195) David Spacek, RD
(204) Owen Van Steensel, LW
(217) Marcus Nguyen, RW

Van Steensel/Nguyen are good wingers who are likely to pop off next year, both play good responsible games already

Spacek/Hayes are two overagers that I think have NHL futures. If not Spacek then Gavin White as an overage defenseman.

Noren is really young, but has agility and a good defensive mind. Think if you're looking to get a player in the late rounds who eventually provides good depth on defense, he's your guy.

Havelid/Neuchev are high risk high reward picks.

Guindon is another player that I think plays in the league eventually.

Savoie if he falls should be picked regardless of his size, questions, etc. because of the upside.
 

jarr92

Registered User
May 7, 2013
809
957
Thank you Doug for trading pick 43 for an AHL goaltender!

Yeahhh.. I have to say the trades for Adin Hill and Lane Pederson have bothered me an unreasonable amount the last year.

Like I understand Hill had some value, but there is no way he was worth a 2nd round pick at the time of the trade. Not only that, but with the Sharks being where they are as a team the trade makes even less sense.

Trading a 4th round pick for Lane Pederson, even if 2024, shows me the Sharks need some change when it comes to their pro NHL scouts/front office. A bunch of players cleared waivers this year that were far superior to Pederson. Trading more than a 7th round pick for him was really dumb.
 
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Alaskanice

Registered User
Sep 23, 2009
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Yeahhh.. I have to say the trades for Adin Hill and Lane Pederson have bothered me an unreasonable amount the last year.

Like I understand Hill had some value, but there is no way he was worth a 2nd round pick at the time of the trade. Not only that, but with the Sharks being where they are as a team the trade makes even less sense.

Trading a 4th round pick for Lane Pederson, even if 2024, shows me the Sharks need some change when it comes to their pro NHL scouts/front office. A bunch of players cleared waivers this year that were far superior to Pederson. Trading more than a 7th round pick for him was really dumb.
I believe both trades were made before the Kane situation. That truly needs to be taken into account for everything last season. If Kane was here, those moves would’ve probably worked.
 
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hotcabbagesoup

why u guys want Celebrini, he played like a weenie
Feb 18, 2009
10,158
13,792
Reno, Nevada
I know. It’s all wrong. By rights we shouldn’t even be here. But we are. It’s like in the great stories hotcabbagesoup. The ones that really mattered. Full of darkness and danger they were, and sometimes you didn’t want to know the end. Because how could the end be happy. How could the world go back to the way it was when so much bad happened. But in the end, it’s only a passing thing, this shadow. Even darkness must pass. A new day will come. And when the sun shines it will shine out the clearer. Those were the stories that stayed with you. That meant something. Even if you were too small to understand why. But I think, hotcabbagesoup, I do understand. I know now. Folk in those stories had lots of chances of turning back only they didn’t. Because they were holding on to something.
Yeaaarrghhh! No turning back, no ragrets!!!

Go Sharks!!!! I'm gonna go to the Main Boards now and make some posts trashing the St Louis Blues and LA Kings. Go Sharks!!!
 

Cas

Conversational Black Hole
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Jun 23, 2020
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I believe both trades were made before the Kane situation. That truly needs to be taken into account for everything last season. If Kane was here, those moves would’ve probably worked.
I can't see any reason the Pederson trade would have worked. He's just not an NHL-quality forward in any aspect.

That being said, I don't object to the idea in principle. A 4th is pretty much a lottery ticket, only marginally more valuable than a 7th. I just think the Sharks clearly overestimated Lane Pederson's ability to play hockey.

For Hill, maybe it was an overpayment, but getting a youngish starting goaltender is probably worth a 2nd. Whether Hill is good enough to be that guy is probably more of a legitimate criticism, and for what we actually got, a 3rd would probably have been a more appropriate payment. I think that does speak to the scouting and coaching staff's inability.
 

Gecklund

Registered User
Jul 17, 2012
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Paywall

Pick Lambert at 11
Brad Lambert’s CHL rights were just traded to Seattle today. He said he was close to joining the CHL last year and still open to the option this year, depending on what his team says. THIS IS FREAKING HUGE. The guy obviously has a ton of skill but I have very deeply questioned his work ethic and had him as borderline DND. If he does well in his interview, I’m starting to be more okay with the idea of him at 11. I think I’d rather another player but being able to have him close and I’m pretty sure in DWjr territory would be really big.
 

NiWa

Registered User
Nov 27, 2003
399
482
Ireland
Now that Minnesota has 16 from LA, maybe the Wild would give us 16 and their 2nd to get 11. Is that worth 5 spots?? Maybe.
Good call in that Minny does have a lot of interesting picks to work with (2 firsts, 2 seconds).

Based on trades in the past, getting #47 & #16 for 11 would be a fair trade. Article on it here: The Cost Of Moving Up In The NHL Draft

However, the LA pick is #19 I think and for 8 spots you'd want more than a mid second.

It really depends on what's left on the board.
 
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