2022 NHL Draft — Sharks need to tank Wright

[Shark in Hockeytown]

I can agree with the point of movement of teams in the standings tend to stem from internal improvement or decline but not the bargain bin point. Every team shops in the bargain bin. Tampa has been signing guys like Corey Perry, Jan Rutta, Brian Elliott, and the like while winning Stanley Cups. It's a necessary reality in the NHL to shop for these sorts of players to fill certain roles with the hopes that they fill roles above them when needed. I'm not going to ding the Sharks for doing the same especially when the reward for them is to spend nothing and possibly get a future asset in return. Barabanov could be a scrap heap gem for this team that they turn into a 2nd round pick at the deadline if he pans out for this season. Balcers was a waivers pickup that is providing them top nine help. Merkley and Pederson are pending results but when all you give up is Christian Jaros and a 2024 4th round pick to bring them in and see what happens, it's not worth criticizing over.

Yes, all teams shop in the bargain bin, but they look for different things. Tampa looks for veterans whose value you can easily project, such as Perry, Rutta, or Elliot. The Sharks look for young guys who might be better than others think. I agree with your valuation of all four of the players I mentioned. My point is just that a team that is short of high level talent goes after marginal players who might turn into something better given a chance, instead of veterans who you know what they can do.. (I'd also say that Barabanov could net a first-round pick at the trade deadline if he proves that he can produce 40-60 points a season this year.) I am not criticizing the organization for these pickup, merely describing the position they are in, and so the strategy they must follow.

 

[Shark in Hockeytown]

Great except that the mid 20's guys are probably good for the next 3 years and 3 of the over 30s are likely effective for at least 2 or more years. They don't have to be elite with some of the young guys coming up will be taking over prominent roles. And as I said in the previous, DW is open for business as far as trades to improve the roster. Can't look at it as there being only one way to improve.

Let's see what the team has this season in "bargain bin" before writing them off.

I agree with you that many of those players will continue to hold their value in the next few years. I also agree that I want to see what they have picked up in the bargain bin because some of them, notably for me Barabanov and Balcers, could prove to be valuable NHL players.

The problem is the team has been bad for two seasons, and internal decline is more likely than improvement.

 

[Shark in Hockeytown]

As far as how bad the team has been. A significant part of that has been league worst goaltending. With even league average goaltending this terrible team likely makes the playoffs last season.

The evidence does not support the "Blame It All on Jones" argument. Jones's save percentage for the last three seasons was .896; he played as poorly in 2018-19 as the last two seasons. But the 2018-19 team was a solid playoff team, which made the conference finals, and was maybe the favorite to win the Cup at its peak before Karlsson's injury (thank you Boston!). Here are the main team numbers for the last three seasons (goals for and against in the last two seasons pro rated to 82 games for comparability):

Season Goals For Goals Against Shots For per game Shots against per game
18-19 289 261 33.0 28.3
19-20 213 265 30.0 30.6
20-21 221 291 30.0 32.0

The problem is the offense went off the cliff after 2019. That summer, Pavelski and Donskoi left as free agents, Braun was dumped for salary to Philly, the three All-Star defensemen all declined noticeably, and 18-19 was the last flourish of Thornton's career. Jones was a problem; he was not the only problem. The decline of the rest of the team was the problem, and none of the organization's moves solve that problem.

 

[Sysreq]

The Sharks aren't a play-off team this year. Even if Eklund is an NHLer, even if Hill brings us back to league average goaltending, even if Bonino-Bonino-Bonino. The core of this team is all jacked up. DW tried to replace a 1C with Erik Karlsson. It simply didn't work. EK and BB lack options up front to feed to.

The front office has been pretty clear: they don't think they can market a team as "rebuilding". There aren't enough hockey purists in San Jose. Last year was a clear stealth tank - from everything we heard from the player, their talk of DW having a plan, I think it was clear. This year, I don't think its a stealth tank, as much as a wait and see. They put a challenge onto the guys seeing if they could up their game. DW doesn't want to be "responsible" for having to make some hard moves, but for this team to even make the play-offs, the stars would have to align. This team has the shell, but absolutely zero depth. There is no 3c besides Bonino. There is no top-6 without Couture or Hertl. Reimer is not a good goalie, so if Hill doesn't work out, the season is done.

And honestly, I don't think we're all that far away. DW and Co are actually a decent front office, unlike Edmonton, or Buffalo, or Arizona, or any of the other eternal rebuilders. They can actually pick up players in the later rounds and have them succeed. I look to Chicago as our template. I think they use Couture, Vlasic, Burns to develop the next generation and keep the culture alive. Building up players like Ferraro, Eklund, etc. They have some decent prospects. But we are still missing the same pieces as always - a top-6 winger, a solid shut-down defenseman, a reliable bottom-6, and most importantly, a franchise center.

 

[Hodge]

The evidence does not support the "Blame It All on Jones" argument. Jones's save percentage for the last three seasons was .896; he played as poorly in 2018-19 as the last two seasons. But the 2018-19 team was a solid playoff team, which made the conference finals, and was maybe the favorite to win the Cup at its peak before Karlsson's injury (thank you Boston!). Here are the main team numbers for the last three seasons (goals for and against in the last two seasons pro rated to 82 games for comparability):

Season Goals For Goals Against Shots For per game Shots against per game
18-19 289 261 33.0 28.3
19-20 213 265 30.0 30.6
20-21 221 291 30.0 32.0

The problem is the offense went off the cliff after 2019. That summer, Pavelski and Donskoi left as free agents, Braun was dumped for salary to Philly, the three All-Star defensemen all declined noticeably, and 18-19 was the last flourish of Thornton's career. Jones was a problem; he was not the only problem. The decline of the rest of the team was the problem, and none of the organization's moves solve that problem.

"Blame It All on Jones" also ignores how much of Jones' struggles were a direct result of the Sharks defense surrendering high danger and especially odd-man rush chances at a higher rate than any other team. Jones was bad but any goalie is going to have a tough time in this environment.

 

[spintops]

Sharks still be bad and Wilson will finally trade off since core pieces, for even less then he would have got now IMO

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

The evidence does not support the "Blame It All on Jones" argument. Jones's save percentage for the last three seasons was .896; he played as poorly in 2018-19 as the last two seasons. But the 2018-19 team was a solid playoff team, which made the conference finals, and was maybe the favorite to win the Cup at its peak before Karlsson's injury (thank you Boston!). Here are the main team numbers for the last three seasons (goals for and against in the last two seasons pro rated to 82 games for comparability):

Season Goals For Goals Against Shots For per game Shots against per game
18-19 289 261 33.0 28.3
19-20 213 265 30.0 30.6
20-21 221 291 30.0 32.0

The problem is the offense went off the cliff after 2019. That summer, Pavelski and Donskoi left as free agents, Braun was dumped for salary to Philly, the three All-Star defensemen all declined noticeably, and 18-19 was the last flourish of Thornton's career. Jones was a problem; he was not the only problem. The decline of the rest of the team was the problem, and none of the organization's moves solve that problem.

Yes the evidence does support blame it on jones or at least blame a lot on jones. AZ gave up similar chances last season and Hill provided far better results. Yes the offense fell off a cliff from the franchise record level it attained in the 18-19 season. Pretty un fair comparison frankly. Still, the next season Couture, EK65 and Hertl all sustained major injuries that knocked them out for a lot of games so that had a huge impact on the teams offensive results. At the time each of those players was injured they were the leading scorer on the team.

Last season Couture tried to play thru a broken foot with poor results and Hertl missed 8 of the 56 games with Covid. He also struggled in the time before covid. There is an article explaining why. The Sharks also had a much higher expected goals number than actual goals with a terrible team shooting percentage which can be attributed to so many rookies and the overall inexperience of the line up. As they gain experience it's more than reasonable to expect better results.

Lastly, EK65 wasn't injured in Boston, he only aggravated it worse there. The initial injury happened against another team.

As far as all the rest. I guess we'll see soon enough.

 

[Shark Finn]

jokes on you, Sharks will

1. be a bubble team
2. trade all their 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks for the next 4 years to go all in with rentals at the TDL with a bunch of those ridiculous "if-this-trade-actually-works-in-my-favor-then-i-will-screw-myself-over-by-giving-you-even-BETTER-draft-picks-to-throw-away-my-hard-earned-negotiated-terms" stipulations
3. lose in game 7 of the cup finals
4. re-sign Hertl, Bonino, Cogliano, Barabonov, Gambrell, Gregor, Leonard, Ferraro and Knyzhov to 8-year contract extensions

In addition: for some reason they lose in the Cup Finals to Vegas

 

[StanleyCup2035]

Martin Jones already in mid-season form with 3 goals on 11 shots in his first game in Philly. He would have surely helped to tank Wright

 

[hohosaregood]

Martin Jones already in mid-season form with 3 goals on 11 shots in his first game in Philly. He would have surely helped to tank Wright

I'd rather eat cyanide than watch Jones play for the Sharks.

 

[YUPPY 2 7 10 11]

Martin Jones already in mid-season form with 3 goals on 11 shots in his first game in Philly. He would have surely helped to tank Wright

Let's say we tank and get 1st overall. There is no guarantee that he will be Wright there. He could get a serious injury, get religious & leave hockey, develop some cancerous disease or join the Icecapade. However, there will still be other very good hockey prospects but it is still a gamble when you tank.

 

[StanleyCup2035]

I’m sure you’ve heard of Shane Wright (2022), Connor Bedard (2023), and Matvei Michkov (2023) by now and maybe some of you have even heard of Aron Kiviharju (2024), but there’s a player named Ivar Stenberg playing in Sweden that is already getting hype for the 2026 draft!!!
The 13yr old plays for Stenungsund HF and is already dominating their u16 program (10pts in 3gp). If that doesn’t blow your mind, Stenberg is also playing games for the J18 club too! He has 1pt in three games versus players four or five years his senior.

 

[tealzamboni]

It wouldn't be a true tank though - the 2022 2nd was traded for Hill.
Sure, it's got the main gun, but the tracks are being stripped and put into net.

 

[Cas]

It wouldn't be a true tank though - the 2022 2nd was traded for Hill.
Sure, it's got the main gun, but the tracks are being stripped and put into net.

Don't worry, it will develop into a superb tank with just a little development, so we're drafting Bedard next year.

(The joke is that the pictured tank, a Soviet KV-1, was the base of development for the excellent IS tank).

 

[tealzamboni]

Don't worry, it will develop into a superb tank with just a little development, so we're drafting Bedard next year.

(The joke is that the pictured tank, a Soviet KV-1, was the base of development for the excellent IS tank).

I had been trying to find a picture of a tank with missing wheels, resting on cinder blocks.

 

[TheBeard]

I’m sure you’ve heard of Shane Wright (2022), Connor Bedard (2023), and Matvei Michkov (2023) by now and maybe some of you have even heard of Aron Kiviharju (2024), but there’s a player named Ivar Stenberg playing in Sweden that is already getting hype for the 2026 draft!!!
The 13yr old plays for Stenungsund HF and is already dominating their u16 program (10pts in 3gp). If that doesn’t blow your mind, Stenberg is also playing games for the J18 club too! He has 1pt in three games versus players four or five years his senior.

TANK FOR HARJU! TRADE EKLUND NOW FOR FUTURE PICKS!

 

[sharski]

I had been trying to find a picture of a tank with missing wheels, resting on cinder blocks.

#dadjokes

 

[A838]

I recall the "Fail for Nail" narrative a few years back. Same thing happened for Daigle. This isn't always as good a method as it seems.

 

[Pavelski2112]

I recall the "Fail for Nail" narrative a few years back. Same thing happened for Daigle. This isn't always as good a method as it seems.

It's not foolproof, but take a look at almost every single Cup winner since the lockout.

06 Canes - Eric Staal #2OA
09/16/17 Pens - Crosby #1OA, Malkin #2OA
10/13/15 Hawks - Toews #3OA, Kane #1OA
11 Bruins - Seguin #2OA (even though he wasn't a huge part, he was a contributor)
12/14 Kings - Doughty #2OA
18 Caps - Ovechkin #1OA
20/21 Bolts - Stamkos #1OA, Hedman #2OA

All these teams with at least one top-3 pick, the only ones without one (that they drafted) being the 07 Ducks, 08 Wings, and 19 Blues (Pietrangelo was a #4OA)

 

[A838]

It's not foolproof, but take a look at almost every single Cup winner since the lockout.

06 Canes - Eric Staal #2OA
09/16/17 Pens - Crosby #1OA, Malkin #2OA
10/13/15 Hawks - Toews #3OA, Kane #1OA
11 Bruins - Seguin #2OA (even though he wasn't a huge part, he was a contributor)
12/14 Kings - Doughty #2OA
18 Caps - Ovechkin #1OA
20/21 Bolts - Stamkos #1OA, Hedman #2OA

All these teams with at least one top-3 pick, the only ones without one (that they drafted) being the 07 Ducks, 08 Wings, and 19 Blues (Pietrangelo was a #4OA)

Your point is fine but it also works the other way. Heatley, Kovalchuk, Nash, Thornton, Tavares, Ekblad, Hischier....a high pick does not guarantee success.

 

[Pavelski2112]

Your point is fine but it also works the other way. Heatley, Kovalchuk, Nash, Thornton, Tavares, Ekblad, Hischier....a high pick does not guarantee success.

Sure - like I said, it's not foolproof - but it's a much higher chance of success than not.

Also, a number of the guys you mentioned at least got to a Final. The Sharks had two top-3 picks for years and it was a big part of their relative success. Nash didn't get the Jackets far but he was a big part of the 2014 Rangers. Same with Kovy in 2012 with NJD. You can make the argument that none of those guys were drafted with those respective teams, and that's why they failed, but they were still top picks that ended up being major pieces on some very good teams.

 

[Nolan11]

Your point is fine but it also works the other way. Heatley, Kovalchuk, Nash, Thornton, Tavares, Ekblad, Hischier....a high pick does not guarantee success.

No it doesnt.

But a top 3 pick on an ELC often contributes much more than the salary he draws.... It is the years before the first big salary where teams can pay for depth and still have star power (from good drafting) that the best chances for success are waiting. That is why these boards so overvalue youth.

 

[A838]

No it doesnt.

But a top 3 pick on an ELC often contributes much more than the salary he draws.... It is the years before the first big salary where teams can pay for depth and still have star power (from good drafting) that the best chances for success are waiting. That is why these boards so overvalue youth.

This is a good point.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Your point is fine but it also works the other way. Heatley, Kovalchuk, Nash, Thornton, Tavares, Ekblad, Hischier....a high pick does not guarantee success.

There's two different points to be made that can be true. One is that drafting that high doesn't guarantee success. It doesn't. Nothing does. Two, the chances of a team gaining ultimate success and winning a championship is very greatly diminished without high draft picks working out for you. Nothing is absolute but the odds heavily favor one route over the other.

 

[sharski]

That's why I root for whichever team is closest to winning the cup, no matter how late in the playoffs I have to change loyalty.

Works literally every year.