2022 NHL Draft — Sharks need to tank Wright

[Shark in Hockeytown]

The Sharks should be tanking given that they will not be a solid playoff team for at least five years. But they clearly are not tanking, but neither are they are all in on trying to make the playoffs this season. If they were tanking. they would not have traded for Hill and would have traded at least Burns and maybe more veterans. If they were making a total push for the playoffs, they would have signed more veterans to fill out the the bottom lines and defense. Instead, they signed some veterans to fill in and sought to improve the goaltending and are hoping they can sort out the young guys to determine which of them are actually NHL players.

 

[Le Grand Quebecois]

The Sharks should be tanking given that they will not be a solid playoff team for at least five years. But they clearly are not tanking, but neither are they are all in on trying to make the playoffs this season. If they were tanking. they would not have traded for Hill and would have traded at least Burns and maybe more veterans. If they were making a total push for the playoffs, they would have signed more veterans to fill out the the bottom lines and defense. Instead, they signed some veterans to fill in and sought to improve the goaltending and are hoping they can sort out the young guys to determine which of them are actually NHL players.

I'm more curious what you think happens in 5 years that they potentially win a cup?

 

[Shark in Hockeytown]

I'm more curious what you think happens in 5 years that they potentially win a cup?

My point was just that the Sharks will not be a solid playoff team--the kind you count on making the playoffs in any given year--for at least five years. Too many key players in their thirties and too few top-level prospects in the system. Not every solid playoff team is a contender. The Sharks being a contender in five years requires either a full-on tank or great luck in the draft lottery in years with franchise players available. If it was up to me, I'd tank, but it is clear that is not the direction this organization is going this season.

 

[StanleyCup2035]

If loving Sharks to tank is Wrong, I don’t want to be Wright.

On serious note, this team has ZERO chance to compete for the cup for at least 3-5 years. Best bet is to tank in 2022 and 2023 and hope for Wright or Bedard lottery luck

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

The Sharks should be tanking given that they will not be a solid playoff team for at least five years. But they clearly are not tanking, but neither are they are all in on trying to make the playoffs this season. If they were tanking. they would not have traded for Hill and would have traded at least Burns and maybe more veterans. If they were making a total push for the playoffs, they would have signed more veterans to fill out the the bottom lines and defense. Instead, they signed some veterans to fill in and sought to improve the goaltending and are hoping they can sort out the young guys to determine which of them are actually NHL players.

My point was just that the Sharks will not be a solid playoff team--the kind you count on making the playoffs in any given year--for at least five years. Too many key players in their thirties and too few top-level prospects in the system. Not every solid playoff team is a contender. The Sharks being a contender in five years requires either a full-on tank or great luck in the draft lottery in years with franchise players available. If it was up to me, I'd tank, but it is clear that is not the direction this organization is going this season.

How many key guys in their 30's? Burns & Vlasic? Couture & EK65 are just over 30 and should potentially be good for another couple years still. Reimer? He's already inline to be a 1b or just a backup. They didn't trade a 2nd thinking Hill was a future backup goaltender. Your whole premise is short sighted.

If loving Sharks to tank is Wrong, I don’t want to be Wright.

On serious note, this team has ZERO chance to compete for the cup for at least 3-5 years. Best bet is to tank in 2022 and 2023 and hope for Wright or Bedard lottery luck

You can keep saying that but you just don't know. Chances are just as good and likely better that you're completely wrong. Over the next 3 years this team will likely integrate Hatakka, Merkley, Bordeleau, Eklund, Coe, Gushin, Robins, Gaudreau, Chemelevski, Kniazev... I'm sure I'm forgetting some... if Hill is what he appears to be... all these guys to go along with the likes of Ferraro, Knyzhov, EK65, Meier, Hertl (hopefully), Labanc, Weatherby, Barabanov (hopefully?), Dahlen (hopefully?), Kane (maybe?), Leonard... This team may not be Tampa level outright contender but they stand a very good chance at being a top team in the conference.

By that time Vlasic can be traded and likely will request it since he won't play in SJ anymore as all these D-men surpass him, Burns will likely be gone and maybe even Couture. I don't see those 3 finishing out their contracts in SJ. If any, maybe Couture as he would likely be a decent veteran 3rd then 4th line center as he ages.

As is typical here, too short sighted.

 

[jMoneyBrah]

How many key guys in their 30's? Burns & Vlasic? Couture & EK65 are just over 30 and should potentially be good for another couple years still. Reimer? He's already inline to be a 1b or just a backup. They didn't trade a 2nd thinking Hill was a future backup goaltender. Your whole premise is short sighted.

You can keep saying that but you just don't know. Chances are just as good and likely better that you're completely wrong. Over the next 3 years this team will likely integrate Hatakka, Merkley, Bordeleau, Eklund, Coe, Gushin, Robins, Gaudreau, Chemelevski, Kniazev... I'm sure I'm forgetting some... if Hill is what he appears to be... all these guys to go along with the likes of Ferraro, Knyzhov, EK65, Meier, Hertl (hopefully), Labanc, Weatherby, Barabanov (hopefully?), Dahlen (hopefully?), Kane (maybe?), Leonard... This team may not be Tampa level outright contender but they stand a very good chance at being a top team in the conference.

By that time Vlasic can be traded and likely will request it since he won't play in SJ anymore as all these D-men surpass him, Burns will likely be gone and maybe even Couture. I don't see those 3 finishing out their contracts in SJ. If any, maybe Couture as he would likely be a decent veteran 3rd then 4th line center as he ages.

As is typical here, too short sighted.

You’re basing your premise that the Sharks can be contenders with the existing pieces on the hope that they live up to the best possible version of what they have on paper. “If [insert player with significant question marks] plays to the top of expectations, and they all do it simultaneously, then the Sharks may be contenders”

A lot of Sharks teams, and many more teams in general, never live up to expectations. To the degree that it’s far more unlikely to happen than it is likely.

I’d argue that by focusing on the aging players in place, and by advocating against optimizing a strategy for the next era of the Sharks you’re the one that is being short-sighted.

 

[one2gamble]

They need one elite player and one top line player. They probably already have the top line player in eukland.

If they manage that somehow, it's not going to take 5 years. The older core is already pushed out. I don't think they should try to win right now. In fact I'd try to slide contracts and wait out the next two drafts because it will set them up for 10 years

 

[Pinkfloyd]

They need one elite player and one top line player. They probably already have the top line player in eukland.

If they manage that somehow, it's not going to take 5 years. The older core is already pushed out. I don't think they should try to win right now. In fact I'd try to slide contracts and wait out the next two drafts because it will set them up for 10 years

I don't know if I'm necessarily convinced of that. The blue line and goaltending is still questionable at this stage to me but it'd be a solid start. They're going to need to transition away from Burns relatively soon and they don't really seem to have anyone close to doing that. The forward core of old can be pushed out relatively easily but the blue line is a lot tougher. We don't have much top end potential there and less flexibility to move out guys like Burns, Karlsson, and Vlasic. I mean, we're running Ferraro and Knyzhov coming into this season with a possibility that Hatakka or Merkley could force their way into the lineup but that really only phases out Simek at this stage. I don't think a rookie's addition is going to alter much there.

 

[Hodge]

You can keep saying that but you just don't know. Chances are just as good and likely better that you're completely wrong. Over the next 3 years this team will likely integrate Hatakka, Merkley, Bordeleau, Eklund, Coe, Gushin, Robins, Gaudreau, Chemelevski, Kniazev...

Apart from Eklund these are mediocre prospects. Every team has players like these in their system. If they pan out they will be bottom half of the lineup players and it is far from a guarantee that they will pan out. In fact it is a guarantee that many of them will not.

 

[Gecklund]

I don't know if I'm necessarily convinced of that. The blue line and goaltending is still questionable at this stage to me but it'd be a solid start. They're going to need to transition away from Burns relatively soon and they don't really seem to have anyone close to doing that. The forward core of old can be pushed out relatively easily but the blue line is a lot tougher. We don't have much top end potential there and less flexibility to move out guys like Burns, Karlsson, and Vlasic. I mean, we're running Ferraro and Knyzhov coming into this season with a possibility that Hatakka or Merkley could force their way into the lineup but that really only phases out Simek at this stage. I don't think a rookie's addition is going to alter much there.

They’d have to look outside the draft for that I think. Only Nemic sticks out as a top class D from the next couple drafts to me. Obviously things will change.

Apart from Eklund these are mediocre prospects. Every team has players like these in their system. If they pan out they will be bottom half of the lineup players and it is far from a guarantee that they will pan out. In fact it is a guarantee that many of them will not.

You are the first person that I’ve seen say Bordeleau will likely be bottom 6. You are the wrong one here. Gushchin, Robins, Chmelevski, Dahlen, Leonard all could easily be top 6 as well with Kniazev, Hatakka, Merkley all with varying degrees of top 4 potential. Will all of them end up in the top 6/4? Probably not but we could also have 4.0F Pavelski who becomes an elite forward or 2nd rounder Vlasic who becomes one of the most underrated D in the league for years.

 

[Hodge]

You are the first person that I’ve seen say Bordeleau will likely be bottom 6. You are the wrong one here. Gushchin, Robins, Chmelevski, Dahlen, Leonard all could easily be top 6 as well with Kniazev, Hatakka, Merkley all with varying degrees of top 4 potential. Will all of them end up in the top 6/4? Probably not but we could also have 4.0F Pavelski who becomes an elite forward or 2nd rounder Vlasic who becomes one of the most underrated D in the league for years.

With Bordeleau there is a significant risk he never establishes himself in the NHL. Everyone brings up Eklund's size but Eklund is the wrong player to be worrying about on that front. More than likely he has the skill to make up for being undersized. Bordeleau, Gushchin and Robins don't have the same skill level or skating ability while also being small which makes them huge question marks as prospects. Maybe one of them pans out but the point remains that we need at least 2-3 more Eklund caliber prospects (preferably at center and defense) and the only way to get them is by drafting in the top five.

 

[Gecklund]

With Bordeleau there is a significant risk he never establishes himself in the NHL. Everyone brings up Eklund's size but Eklund is the wrong player to be worrying about on that front. More than likely he has the skill to make up for being undersized. Bordeleau, Gushchin and Robins don't have the same skill level or skating ability while also being small which makes them huge question marks as prospects. Maybe one of them pans out but the point remains that we need at least 2-3 more Eklund caliber prospects (preferably at center and defense) and the only way to get them is by drafting in the top five.

Other than Tampa and perrennial bottom feeders there is not a single team in the league with 4 Eklund caliber prospects/players.

 

[Hodge]

Other than Tampa and perrennial bottom feeders there is not a single team in the league with 4 Eklund caliber prospects/players.

Not sure what you mean by that. Tampa, Toronto, Colorado, Vegas and Boston all have (at least) four star level players and it's not a coincidence that those are the teams that have a legit shot at winning a Cup.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

. Maybe one of them pans out but the point remains that we need at least 2-3 more Eklund caliber prospects (preferably at center and defense) and the only way to get them is by drafting in the top five.

We don't need to draft top 5, but obviously that makes things easier. Looking at next years draft, it is very deep throughout the top 10. If we solely rely on top-5/10 picks to get through a rebuild though, we're destined to follow the paths of Buffalo and Edmonton in years of losing. The best rebuilding teams find players in other areas (later rounds, trades, free agency etc.) Obviously this requires a lot more luck, but it makes it much easier to become competitive again when the entire core isn't torn to the bottom.

 

[Gecklund]

Not sure what you mean by that. Tampa, Toronto, Colorado, Vegas and Boston all have (at least) four star level players and it's not a coincidence that those are the teams that have a legit shot at winning a Cup.

You qualified my point more. How many of those teams picked in the top 5 for their core? TB has 2 (both a while ago), TOR has 4 yet one wasn’t by them and they aren’t good in the playoffs, COL has 3, VGK has 1 but signed him as a FA, BOS has 1 but again FA. All of them had players come out of the woodwork to be elite. Did anyone really think Kucherov, Point, Girard, Rantanen, Karlsson, Pacioretty, Bergeron, Pastrnak, McAvoy, etc. were going to be as good as they are now? Anyone that did was probably considered a homer or on drugs.

 

[Hodge]

We don't need to draft top 5, but obviously that makes things easier. Looking at next years draft, it is very deep throughout the top 10. If we solely rely on top-5/10 picks to get through a rebuild though, we're destined to follow the paths of Buffalo and Edmonton in years of losing. The best rebuilding teams find players in other areas (later rounds, trades, free agency etc.) Obviously this requires a lot more luck, but it makes it much easier to become competitive again when the entire core isn't torn to the bottom.

Buffalo and Edmonton's rebuilds failed because they got absolutely nothing out of rounds 2-7 (and even screwed up several of their first round picks). If Wiesblatt, Bordeleau, Kniazev, Hatakka, etc. can emerge as bottom six forwards or 4-6 defensemen we're already ahead of them. But I don't see any way of acquiring top of the lineup pieces unless you're drafting in the lottery range.

 

[Hodge]

You qualified my point more. How many of those teams picked in the top 5 for their core? TB has 2 (both a while ago), TOR has 4 yet one wasn’t by them and they aren’t good in the playoffs, COL has 3, VGK has 1 but signed him as a FA, BOS has 1 but again FA. All of them had players come out of the woodwork to be elite. Did anyone really think Kucherov, Point, Girard, Rantanen, Karlsson, Pacioretty, Bergeron, Pastrnak, McAvoy, etc. were going to be as good as they are now? Anyone that did was probably considered a homer or on drugs.

It would be great if someone like Bordeleau develops into a #2 center but you simply can't rely on it. You can't rely on top 5 picks either - even if we draft there for the next three years odds are we whiff on at least one of those picks. It's just about increasing your odds of landing a franchise changing talent somewhere. Even if we eventually end up trading for that kind of player the assets required would be draft capital and highly regarded prospects.

 

[Gecklund]

It would be great if someone like Bordeleau develops into a #2 center but you simply can't rely on it. You can't rely on top 5 picks either - even if we draft there for the next three years odds are we whiff on at least one of those picks. It's just about increasing your odds of landing a franchise changing talent somewhere. Even if we eventually end up trading for that kind of player the assets required would be draft capital and highly regarded prospects.

Well yeah I agree but the most successful franchises are about the development and not necessarily the players. We are really good at developing bottom 6 players but we’ve had the benefit of trading for Jumbo, Burns, EK, Kane, Boyle, Heatley, etc. so really the only three top of the lineup players I can think of that the Sharks developed was Pav, Marleau, Hertl, Couture, maybe Clowe, Vlasic with the likes of Ferraro looking like he might get there

 

[Pinkfloyd]

They’d have to look outside the draft for that I think. Only Nemic sticks out as a top class D from the next couple drafts to me. Obviously things will change.

This is probably true and it's something that they could potentially get away with not having elite talent there if we're loaded up front and/or are getting good goaltending. The latter is just not something I think we can really plan for. We either get it or we don't. The forwards are certainly something we can load up on through the draft and I think they have a solid foundation for that between Eklund, Bordeleau, Wiesblatt, Robins, Coe, and Gushchin. I think Eklund is top line potential but not franchise-changing like Thornton. None of the other guys are that either but can very much be valuable contributors to a competing team. All of them are at least 2nd line level potential which is valuable when they're needing turnover here pretty soon. Problem is that they need that turnover on the blue line and that one is going to go a lot slower. If they reup Hertl a future top nine in a season or two that includes all of those names can be a solid group to compete with.

Eklund-Hertl-Wiesblatt
Couture-Bordeleau-Coe
Gushchin-Robins-??? (could be Raska or Cardwell)

However, think of what that forward group looks like if it's headed by Shane Wright. That's a group that can compete while having enough extra trade assets to fill holes coming up on defense.

There's plenty to be positive about there but the blue line organizationally is chock full of decent LHD's and limited on the right side.

 

[Shark in Hockeytown]

How many key guys in their 30's? Burns & Vlasic? Couture & EK65 are just over 30 and should potentially be good for another couple years still. Reimer? He's already inline to be a 1b or just a backup. They didn't trade a 2nd thinking Hill was a future backup goaltender. Your whole premise is short sighted.

Here is the age distribution for the current top Sharks players (I judge top players by those who at their peak were top six forwards or top four dmen):

Over 30 (these players are more likely to decline than improve because of their age. They may still be useful even if their play declines): Couture (32), Kane (30), Karlsson (31), Burns (36), Vlasic (34)

Mid 20s (these players are around the peak of their career, but we have probably seen their top performance even if they will sustain that for several years): Meier (24), Hertl (27), LaBanc (25, I don't think he really is a top six forward, but I'll be generous)

Early 20s (these players may improve noticeably in the years to come): Ferraro (23)

The issue is obvious: more players in decline than on the upswing. Big movements of teams in the standings up and down typically come from internal improvement or deterioration rather than trades and free agents signings (the things that reporters obsess over). Given how bad the team has been over the last two seasons, it is hard to be optimistic for the next five years in the face of further likely decline.

Given this talent shortage, the team has been hoovering up replacement-level players who because they are young might turn into useful NHL players if given a bigger role (Balcers, Barabanov, N. Merkley, Pederson). Teams with a strong talent pool don't have to shop in the bargain bin.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Here is the age distribution for the current top Sharks players (I judge top players by those who at their peak were top six forwards or top four dmen):

Over 30 (these players are more likely to decline than improve because of their age. They may still be useful even if their play declines): Couture (32), Kane (30), Karlsson (31), Burns (36), Vlasic (34)

Mid 20s (these players are around the peak of their career, but we have probably seen their top performance even if they will sustain that for several years): Meier (24), Hertl (27), LaBanc (25, I don't think he really is a top six forward, but I'll be generous)

Early 20s (these players may improve noticeably in the years to come): Ferraro (23)

The issue is obvious: more players in decline than on the upswing. Big movements of teams in the standings up and down typically come from internal improvement or deterioration rather than trades and free agents signings (the things that reporters obsess over). Given how bad the team has been over the last two seasons, it is hard to be optimistic for the next five years in the face of further likely decline.

Given this talent shortage, the team has been hoovering up replacement-level players who because they are young might turn into useful NHL players if given a bigger role (Balcers, Barabanov, N. Merkley, Pederson). Teams with a strong talent pool don't have to shop in the bargain bin.

I can agree with the point of movement of teams in the standings tend to stem from internal improvement or decline but not the bargain bin point. Every team shops in the bargain bin. Tampa has been signing guys like Corey Perry, Jan Rutta, Brian Elliott, and the like while winning Stanley Cups. It's a necessary reality in the NHL to shop for these sorts of players to fill certain roles with the hopes that they fill roles above them when needed. I'm not going to ding the Sharks for doing the same especially when the reward for them is to spend nothing and possibly get a future asset in return. Barabanov could be a scrap heap gem for this team that they turn into a 2nd round pick at the deadline if he pans out for this season. Balcers was a waivers pickup that is providing them top nine help. Merkley and Pederson are pending results but when all you give up is Christian Jaros and a 2024 4th round pick to bring them in and see what happens, it's not worth criticizing over.

 

[sharks_dynasty]

DW has always been good at trading for players and ran out of trade capital. In recent years we have also gotten our drafting in order to restock the pool, which gives us many more internal options as well as additional capital from which to execute high impact trades. The combo should be really good in helping transform the team into a perennial contender in the coming years. Exciting times ahead!

 

[tealzamboni]

It would be great if someone like Bordeleau develops into a #2 center but you simply can't rely on it. You can't rely on top 5 picks either - even if we draft there for the next three years odds are we whiff on at least one of those picks. It's just about increasing your odds of landing a franchise changing talent somewhere. Even if we eventually end up trading for that kind of player the assets required would be draft capital and highly regarded prospects.

I have doubts about the farm, but I think Dahlen/Barabanov's seasons should provide insight into how Bordeleau, Wiesblatt, Cardwell, Robins, Guschin might fare. With these players, it seems like they're trying to add the "Labanc with more juice" profile to their formula (power forward/grinder + opportunist center + crafty small wing = genius Shorks).

If Dahlen/Barabanov/system end up creating a bit more space and chances, then those other forwards could play solid roles in the future top 9.
But, if the results are so-so, they get engulfed on the boards, and the coaches don't adjust well, then maybe the expectations should be lowered.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

You’re basing your premise that the Sharks can be contenders with the existing pieces on the hope that they live up to the best possible version of what they have on paper. “If [insert player with significant question marks] plays to the top of expectations, and they all do it simultaneously, then the Sharks may be contenders”

A lot of Sharks teams, and many more teams in general, never live up to expectations. To the degree that it’s far more unlikely to happen than it is likely.

I’d argue that by focusing on the aging players in place, and by advocating against optimizing a strategy for the next era of the Sharks you’re the one that is being short-sighted.

And the other premise is based on most of them failing. I think the odds are better that the majority of the names I listed play in the NHL and at least a few will be excellent.

What do you mean focusing on aging players in place? Where am I doing that? All the guys I listed as being likely for the team in 3 years are part of the youth movement of this team. So no, I'm not being short sighted. Also none of this factors in the inevitable trade or potential UFA signings to fill out the roster. Let's not kid ourselves, DW even said that he's open for business as far as improving the team thru trade whatever deficiencies some of you see in elite talent, it's likely that DW is way ahead of you and already laying the ground work to try and quire someone in the next couple years as guys like Couture and Burns age out.

When the season starts, compare that roster to the one that started the 2019-2020 season. I'm betting it's a lot of turnover.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

Here is the age distribution for the current top Sharks players (I judge top players by those who at their peak were top six forwards or top four dmen):

Over 30 (these players are more likely to decline than improve because of their age. They may still be useful even if their play declines): Couture (32), Kane (30), Karlsson (31), Burns (36), Vlasic (34)

Mid 20s (these players are around the peak of their career, but we have probably seen their top performance even if they will sustain that for several years): Meier (24), Hertl (27), LaBanc (25, I don't think he really is a top six forward, but I'll be generous)

Early 20s (these players may improve noticeably in the years to come): Ferraro (23)

The issue is obvious: more players in decline than on the upswing. Big movements of teams in the standings up and down typically come from internal improvement or deterioration rather than trades and free agents signings (the things that reporters obsess over). Given how bad the team has been over the last two seasons, it is hard to be optimistic for the next five years in the face of further likely decline.

Given this talent shortage, the team has been hoovering up replacement-level players who because they are young might turn into useful NHL players if given a bigger role (Balcers, Barabanov, N. Merkley, Pederson). Teams with a strong talent pool don't have to shop in the bargain bin.

Great except that the mid 20's guys are probably good for the next 3 years and 3 of the over 30s are likely effective for at least 2 or more years. They don't have to be elite with some of the young guys coming up will be taking over prominent roles. And as I said in the previous, DW is open for business as far as trades to improve the roster. Can't look at it as there being only one way to improve.

Let's see what the team has this season in "bargain bin" before writing them off.

As far as how bad the team has been. A significant part of that has been league worst goaltending. With even league average goaltending this terrible team likely makes the playoffs last season. You say they won't be a consistent playoff team for 5 years. I say you're wrong. There is a youth and talent infusion coming over the next 3 years that helps them make the playoffs. Not even counting trades DW is likely to make to improve the team.

To be clear, you and others keep saying they won't and I say it's possible. You guys want to speak in absolutes then I'll disagree with you. I want to see what the roster looks like and see how they play before I relegate them to bottom feeder status again. No one thought the Habs were going to beat either Vegas or the Avs in the playoffs last season yet look what happened. Sharks are adding a number of high motor guys.