Prospect Info: 2022 Final Devils-Centric Mock Draft, Top 40 Picks

StevenToddIves

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Thank you!

I'd love to get Rinzel with our second round, or possibly steal if someone from mid first drops. But I'd be happy with Warren too.

Here's just my top10 prediction. I think Arizona takes a C and Philly goes for grit (pun intended). Seattle takes a D, I think it's Nemec, but it could be Jiricek too. Columbus could take whoever, Jarmo always surprises (chinakov, pld) but I feel like they gotta take whoever from the top guys is left (Jiricek, Nemec, Gauthier). Ottawa is pretty set on C and D, so I think they go for scoring winger. Lekkerimäki feels like a Detroit kinda pick, but they really need centers so I think they go with the big Geekie brother (I can easily see them taking Kasper too). Buffalo always seems to take the popular guys with stats, so I have Savoie going for them (they might take a scoring winger too). Anaheim also has good C and D pieces so I see them going for a scoring winger so Lekkerimäki surprises some and goes top10. So..

1. MTL Wright
2. NJ Slafkovsky
3. ARI Cooley
4. SEA Nemec
5. PHI Gauthier
6. COL Jiricek
7. OTT Kemell
8. DET Geekie
9. BUF Savoie
10. ANA Lekkerimäki
My first reaction reading this was: man, if Colorado gets Jiricek too, they're really going to be ridiculous on RD. Then I just realized CLB is a stupid abbreviation, anyway.

But seriously, your first 6 picks are certainly quite realistic. Some notes on two I don't find realistic:

OTTAWA: Joakim Kemell is probably a shade under 5'10. The last time Ottawa used a 1st round pick on a player under 6'0 was 5'11 Patrick Eaves... way back in 2003. That's 20 years! Their front office is the penultimate old-boy network -- they literally used the #10 overall pick last year on Tyler Boucher, a big, fast kid who hits a lot but has negligible scoring upside. So, while it's not impossible they take Kemell at #7, I'd say it's lower odds than them taking Nathan Gaucher or Jimmy Snuggerud at #7.

DETROIT: I don't think there's a GM who generally values intangibles with his early picks more than Steve Yzerman, and he also loves great skaters. Looking at his 3 first rounders as Red Wings GM we have Simon Edvinsson (elite compete, elite skating), Lucas Raymond (elite compete & IQ, elite skating) and Moritz Seider (elite compete & IQ, elite skating). Geekie is massively skilled in every respect except his IQ, which is good but not great, and his compete and skating, which are the weakest aspects of his game. As such, Geekie just doesn't feel like an Yzerman pick.
 

Nubmer6

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Did a mock draft with a friend for fun, looked at it afterwards and though "wow I'm going to get every pick after 4-5 wrong" but pleasantly surprised I have 9 of the same picks as you :laugh:.

I felt like after 12 or so the next 15 picks could go in like any order. What are your perceived falloffs and such?
You should post your results, just for fun.
 

Jersey Fresh

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I'm not a prospect guy and have never heard the name Noah Warren before, so this isn't really a commentary on him, but I have a strong dislike for trying to find the "shut-down"/physical profile of player, especially high in the draft. Have to go for upside.

We've chased a ton of those guys and next to none look like anywhere near an NHL player and the jury is still out on him (Okhotiuk): Misyul, Vukojevic, McCarthy, guess Bahl qualifies though he's on the NHL periphery and acquired via trade.

Limited upside, size, and physical defenseman can be acquired through other routes, Graves the perfect example.
 
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Xirik

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I shared your Wright player comparison with someone

"I was just asked for a Wright comparison, but couldn't find one. So, I said "Mark Scheifele in the offensive zone, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in the defensive zone and Anze Kopitar in transition". It's not perfect, but I like it better than anything I've heard so far."

Their reply to the comparison was that it sounded like Brad Richards. Does that sound like a okay/good comparison?
 

StevenToddIves

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I'm not a prospect guy and have never heard the name Noah Warren before, so this isn't really a commentary on him, but I have a strong dislike for trying to find the "shut-down"/physical profile of player, especially high in the draft. Have to go for upside.

We've chased a ton of those guys and next to none look like anywhere near an NHL player and the jury is still out on him (Okhotiuk): Misyul, Vukojevic, McCarthy, guess Bahl qualifies though he's on the NHL periphery and acquired via trade.

Limited upside, size, and physical defenseman can be acquired through other routes, Graves the perfect example.
The Devils have this type of player on LD, but they only have McCarthy on RD. Warren is considerably bigger than McCarthy and also a superior skater. If the Devils were to draft Warren at #37, he would immediately jump to #1 on the Devils RD prospect depth chart -- and this was pretty much my logic behind mocking the pick to NJ.

Keep in mind, Luke Hughes is going to need a RD partner one day. Hamilton is not a good match for him, nor is Severson. Walsh is not a guy I ever expect to earn a regular role with the Devils, while McCarthy is more of a solid, stay-at-home bottom pairing type. Warren can skate and blast the puck, a couple of tools which might enable him to slot up the line-up and act as the stay-at-home partner for a player like Luke Hughes.

As for me, I'm personally not sure Warren would be my pick here either. I probably screwed up in having Owen Beck fall so late, but I think that would be my guy in the scenario of my mock draft. But I was trying to be realistic as possible, and Tom Fitzgerald has cited a clear need to get more physical and difficult to play against, especially on the blueline. Warren would fit these aspects perfectly.

Ultimately, I think Fitzgerald is aware of the Devils absolute dearth of depth at RD organizationally. After Hamilton? Severson is a UFA after next year. The Devils currently have no 3rd pairing RD. Walsh is probably an AHLer, and McCarthy is a third-pairing type who is at least a year away from the AHL. And that's it.

In my scenario, Sam Rinzel was picked by Winnipeg and Luneau by Montreal at the end of the 1st round. This would leave Warren certainly in the conversation for the best RD remaining, along with Barabosha and Mastodomenico. There are a couple of "upside guys" at RD who could probably be had later in Michael Fisher and Ryan Healey. But RD is a tough position to fill and players come at a premium, therefore sometimes you have to throw out the rules and get aggressive. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Devils go RD in both the 2nd and 3rd rounds this year, to be perfectly honest.

So, my final answer is: no, I did not have the Devils taking the "best available player" at #37. But I did have them taking the "best available right defenseman", and I don't think that would be a bad call.
 

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I'm not a prospect guy and have never heard the name Noah Warren before, so this isn't really a commentary on him, but I have a strong dislike for trying to find the "shut-down"/physical profile of player, especially high in the draft. Have to go for upside.

We've chased a ton of those guys and next to none look like anywhere near an NHL player and the jury is still out on him (Okhotiuk): Misyul, Vukojevic, McCarthy, guess Bahl qualifies though he's on the NHL periphery and acquired via trade.

Limited upside, size, and physical defenseman can be acquired through other routes, Graves the perfect example.

I’m not entirely enthused by the idea because it’s based on need but not addressing RHD ever in the draft is really a problem for this team. This is a chance to get a Carlo-type player and that’s a hard type of player to get.

His skating and athleticism is better than those players which is a pretty significant difference. Unfortunately he has to be targeted higher because he’s RHD.

It depends who falls as well but I don’t know if Fitz will be capable of reacting to opportunities rather than “sticking to list”.
 

StevenToddIves

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I shared your Wright player comparison with someone

"I was just asked for a Wright comparison, but couldn't find one. So, I said "Mark Scheifele in the offensive zone, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in the defensive zone and Anze Kopitar in transition". It's not perfect, but I like it better than anything I've heard so far."

Their reply to the comparison was that it sounded like Brad Richards. Does that sound like a okay/good comparison?
Well, not to be contrary but I'd have to say no on the basis that Brad Richards never scored 30+ goals. Scheifele is one of the best shooting centers in the league, and Wright will probably shoot even better. They're both natural goal-scorers, while Richards was a natural playmaker.

Also, Richards was a pass-first guy in transition, while Kopitar and Wright both do their best to maintain possession until absolutely necessary.

The problem with very high picks is they're usually unique players who are tough to compare. I mean, how would you compare Jack Hughes? Um, like Patrick Kane, but a center, and with skates like Pavel Bure. You normally need a longer description.
 

Xirik

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So the idea for Warren is that hopefully he'd be able to play with Hughes and they'd be able to be like the Karlsson/Methot combo of the senators a couple years ago?

Methot being able to cover for Karlsson really allowed Erik to really focus on doing his thing which IMO almost made them Stanley Cup champions that year.

The problem with very high picks is they're usually unique players who are tough to compare. I mean, how would you compare Jack Hughes? Um, like Patrick Kane, but a center, and with skates like Pavel Bure. You normally need a longer description.

A Center version of Scott Niedermayer?:golfnana:

Less defense and more offensive focus mide you.
 

StevenToddIves

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I’m not entirely enthused by the idea because it’s based on need but not addressing RHD ever in the draft is really a problem for this team. This is a chance to get a Carlo-type player and that’s a hard type of player to get.

His skating and athleticism is better than those players which is a pretty significant difference. Unfortunately he has to be targeted higher because he’s RHD.

It depends who falls as well but I don’t know if Fitz will be capable of reacting to opportunities rather than “sticking to list”.
I've theorized before that the problem in the Devils later round drafting for the past two years may amount to giving several scouts (and possibly the analytics department) "their guy" instead of having formulated a comprehensive draft strategy and cohesive draft board.

Again, there is no logical other way to explain the Baumgartner pick or the Hurtig pick. The Vilen pick -- though he's a solid defensive defenseman with actual NHL potential -- also seems a bit suspect in that the strategy of taking a guy who enters your LD prospect rankings at #6 or #7 while you have clear needs at C and RD seems poorly conceived.

If the Devils had simply taken my highest ranked RD in the slots where they used those three picks they would have Viktor Persson, Jack Bar and Ty Gallagher. Granted, this is not exactly a blue chip list of future top 4 studs, but at least they're all legitimate NHL prospects. As it strands, we just have Vilen, who might make the NHL, just not likely with the Devils who will have Luke Hughes and Jonas Siegenthaler for the foreseeable future with a glut of talent behind them.

RD is very, very hard to find. Had we taken Scott Morrow instead of Chase Stillman last year, we'd be more in position to use the 2nd and 3rd round pick on higher upside players. But as it stands, we need to address RD this year, so that next year the Devils are no longer in the same position. Which is to say, I don't care how much hard work our Swedish scout has done and how much he likes LD Calle Odelius -- we simply can't afford to take him at #37. It doesn't matter how much work our WHL scout did and that we haven't given him a pick in two years, we can't afford to take LD Mats Lindgren at #70.

I like these players too, but the Devils need a cohesive strategy to fill needs of RD, depth C and interior forwards.
 

Lou Bloom

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I'm not a prospect guy and have never heard the name Noah Warren before, so this isn't really a commentary on him, but I have a strong dislike for trying to find the "shut-down"/physical profile of player, especially high in the draft. Have to go for upside.

We've chased a ton of those guys and next to none look like anywhere near an NHL player and the jury is still out on him (Okhotiuk): Misyul, Vukojevic, McCarthy, guess Bahl qualifies though he's on the NHL periphery and acquired via trade.

Limited upside, size, and physical defenseman can be acquired through other routes, Graves the perfect example.
If Warren turns into a top 4 shutdown defenseman that'd be a better outcome than about 90% of 2nd round picks. Sure, there's the occasional Aho, Robertson, Kyrou, Debrincat, etc.. but you're more likely to select a player that ends up a borderline NHL player then anything remotely resembling those players.

As for upside I'd disagree that shutdown defenseman are limited. You have guys like Slavin, Pesce, Brodin, McDonaugh and Pelech who are considered extremely valuable top pairing defenseman due to their defensive ability. You have guys like Cernak, Carlo, Lindgren, Lindell, etc... that are very good defensive minded players that are consistent top 4 guys.
 

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Had no idea that Cutter Gauthier was from Arizona. Certainly adds another wrinkle to the Coyotes pick. Some similarities to 2019 when Chicago was picking 3rd and Turcotte was an option.
 
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Brodeur

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Had no idea that Cutter Gauthier was from Arizona. Certainly adds another wrinkle to the Coyotes pick. Some similarities to 2019 when Chicago was picking 3rd and Turcotte was an option.


I totally was unaware until a few days ago too. I think I was thrown off since his birthplace is listed in Sweden and his most recent seasons were in Michigan. Interesting dilemma for Arizona. They did reach a bit for Josh Doan last year although they missed out on Matthew Knies unless they thought they could get him at #60 (Leafs got him at #57).
 

StevenToddIves

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If we were to draft a D-man out of the Q I would prefer it to be Maveric Lamoreux who you have going 2 picks after Warren. Lamoreux is 6-7 and lit up the combine with a lot of top 10 finishes. In fact I don't even think he makes it to #37 as there is a lot of helium with him.


I have the Devils taking Warren at #37 and Ottawa taking Lamoureux at #39. In my rankings, I have a wider gap, with Warren at #42 and Lamoureux at #76. The reason why is quite simple -- Warren is significantly better at hockey.

Certainly, these are comparable players. Warren is an impressive skater at 6'5 who is physical as hell. Lamoureux is an impressive skater at 6'7 who is even more physical than Warren. If both of them share a weakness, it's that neither have good hands at all and can bobble pucks which a first-round pick caliber D could handle blindfolded.

The differences arise not at the combine, but when you watch them play in game situations. Warren is very smart in his gaps and positioning, and very economical in his play with the puck. Lamoureux often leaves position for a big hit, and often tries to stickhandle through players in transition when stick handling is a weakness. Both of these traits by Lamoureux lead to consistent chances against. Lamoureux is really not polished in any mental aspect of the game -- his positioning and gaps are poor as he over-relies on his size/skating in virtually all situations.

Though the ceilings for these two players may be similar, Warren is a lot closer to this ceiling whereas Lamoureux is a complete project. Thus, Warren has a much higher floor. At his current development path -- and it's worth noting that Warren improved exponentially all season long for Gatineau -- Warren should be, at the very least, a defensive 3rd pairing NHL defender who eats up a ton of ice with his size and speed while punishing the opposition physically.

Conversely, Lamoureux is a bit scarier. There is a ton of progression for him to even get to an AHL level. This is not to say he won't get there, but the longer a prospect's development path is, the longer it takes them to get there and the greater the amount which can go awry during the process.

I'll finish this by saying that although no one is kidding themselves by calling Warren an offensive defenseman, I'd say his shot is top 5 for any defender in the 2022 class. Lamoureux lacks such a weapon. For a shut-down guy we might not consider this important, but it makes Warren potentially a better bet to pair with a top-flight offensive D-man like Luke Hughes. For instance, if an opposing coach decides to back off the points to defend against Hughes' elite speed and puck-handling, he can dish cross-point to Warren for a one-timer with no defender up high enough to block it. I'd say, at his highest potential, Warren has 10-15 goal upside due to this trait alone.

Again, Warren is no sure bet. He's pretty early on in his development arc as well. However, he showed a higher development curve than Lamoureux this season vs. the same QMJHL competition, and if it came down to a choice between the two I'd have to go with Noah Warren without any second thoughts.
 

StevenToddIves

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I just simulated a draft using the McKenzie rankings. Slafkovsky went first, so I made a boatload of trades to ensure I'd fill the Devils RD hole (Jiricek, Barabosha, Fisher), get a couple stud centers who could also slot to wing (McGroarty, Morrison), get high upside wingers with top 6 potential (Perevalov, Vilmanis), get a physical, interior winger (Schaefer), plus a couple of hard-nosed wingers with defensive chops and offensive pop to change the dynamic of the future bottom 6 (Sykora, Nguyen).

If I failed anywhere, it's that I forgot to draft a goalie and that I should have thought more about team speed. My top 4 picks of Jiricek, McGroarty, Schaefer and Perevalov are all terrific prospects, but none feature high-end skating to any degree. Strangely, every one of my last 6 picks is an excellent skater, though.


 

Team Concept

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I have the Devils taking Warren at #37 and Ottawa taking Lamoureux at #39. In my rankings, I have a wider gap, with Warren at #42 and Lamoureux at #76. The reason why is quite simple -- Warren is significantly better at hockey.

Certainly, these are comparable players. Warren is an impressive skater at 6'5 who is physical as hell. Lamoureux is an impressive skater at 6'7 who is even more physical than Warren. If both of them share a weakness, it's that neither have good hands at all and can bobble pucks which a first-round pick caliber D could handle blindfolded.

The differences arise not at the combine, but when you watch them play in game situations. Warren is very smart in his gaps and positioning, and very economical in his play with the puck. Lamoureux often leaves position for a big hit, and often tries to stickhandle through players in transition when stick handling is a weakness. Both of these traits by Lamoureux lead to consistent chances against. Lamoureux is really not polished in any mental aspect of the game -- his positioning and gaps are poor as he over-relies on his size/skating in virtually all situations.

Though the ceilings for these two players may be similar, Warren is a lot closer to this ceiling whereas Lamoureux is a complete project. Thus, Warren has a much higher floor. At his current development path -- and it's worth noting that Warren improved exponentially all season long for Gatineau -- Warren should be, at the very least, a defensive 3rd pairing NHL defender who eats up a ton of ice with his size and speed while punishing the opposition physically.

Conversely, Lamoureux is a bit scarier. There is a ton of progression for him to even get to an AHL level. This is not to say he won't get there, but the longer a prospect's development path is, the longer it takes them to get there and the greater the amount which can go awry during the process.

I'll finish this by saying that although no one is kidding themselves by calling Warren an offensive defenseman, I'd say his shot is top 5 for any defender in the 2022 class. Lamoureux lacks such a weapon. For a shut-down guy we might not consider this important, but it makes Warren potentially a better bet to pair with a top-flight offensive D-man like Luke Hughes. For instance, if an opposing coach decides to back off the points to defend against Hughes' elite speed and puck-handling, he can dish cross-point to Warren for a one-timer with no defender up high enough to block it. I'd say, at his highest potential, Warren has 10-15 goal upside due to this trait alone.

Again, Warren is no sure bet. He's pretty early on in his development arc as well. However, he showed a higher development curve than Lamoureux this season vs. the same QMJHL competition, and if it came down to a choice between the two I'd have to go with Noah Warren without any second thoughts.
Thank you for the analysis. One interesting tidbit is that they both play for the same team and Lamoureux was -30 and Warren was +17. So was Warren facing the opponents top lines or as you mention responsible for many of the goals against? Maybe a combination of both?
 

StevenToddIves

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Thank you for the analysis. One interesting tidbit is that they both play for the same team and Lamoureux was -30 and Warren was +17. So was Warren facing the opponents top lines or as you mention responsible for many of the goals against? Maybe a combination of both?
They don't play for the same team -- Warren skates for Gatineau and Lamoureux for Drummondville. Both teams were good, but not top teams. Warren had the benefit of being Gatineau's clear cut #2 RD behind Tristan Luneau, who is one of the better two-way defenders in the entire CHL.

Lamoureux was mostly top 4, and clearly the most relied-upon RD for his own team. The responsibility may have been tough for his development, though it improved his point totals and likely draft position.

Strangely, both Warren and Lamoureux finished their QMJHL seasons with exactly 24 points.
 
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Captain3rdLine

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There is a bunch of RD expected to go through the late first and 2nd round of the draft. I can’t imagine we walk out of the 2nd round without one of them unless there’s a forward we absolutely love or a good trade.

My favorite right now is Maverick Lamoreux
6’7” 199lbs
Really tall RD who is such a smooth skater and puck-handler. I can really see him blossoming in to a good top 4 defensmen. We have lots of time to develop whatever RD prospect we take with Dougie under contract for another 6 years. My favourite of the potentially available RD options (assuming Chesley isn’t available which he won’t be). I think he’s a player who probably takes 4 years at least before he plays (2 in CHL and 2 in AHL) but he immediately becomes the best RD prospect in our system and I think he could be a very good NHL defensmen 5-7 years down the road.
Also wouldn’t be off brand for Fitzy.

I like some of the other RD as well but I don’t see the same top 4 upside in most of them nor do I see some of them as good stylistic fits. The only one who’s upside I like more is Salomonsson’s but he has a lot of issues/red flags and he would definitely be a risky pick. Might be worth a swing later but I’d rather focus on getting a solid 3C prospect in the 3rd round.
 
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StevenToddIves

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There is a bunch of RD expected to go through the late first and 2nd round of the draft. I can’t imagine we walk out of the 2nd round without one of them unless there’s a forward we absolutely love or a good trade.

My favorite right now is Maverick Lamoreux
6’7” 199lbs
Really tall RD who is such a smooth skater and puck-handler. I can really see him blossoming in to a good top 4 defensmen. We have lots of time to develop whatever RD prospect we take with Dougie under contract for another 6 years. My favourite of the potentially available RD options (assuming Chesley isn’t available which he won’t be). I think he’s a player who probably takes 4 years at least before he plays (2 in CHL and 2 in AHL) but he immediately becomes the best RD prospect in our system and I think he could be a very good NHL defensmen 5-7 years down the road.
Also wouldn’t be off brand for Fitzy.

I like some of the other RD as well but I don’t see the same top 4 upside in most of them nor do I see some of them as good stylistic fits. The only one who’s upside I like more is Salomonsson’s but he has a lot of issues/red flags and he would definitely be a risky pick. Might be worth a swing later but I’d rather focus on getting a solid 3C prospect in the 3rd round.
Read post #41 on this thread, I compare Lamoureux to Warren, with Warren easily coming out on top as the superior prospect in the second round.

I have Salomonsson ranked at #110, and would not even sniff him until the 5th round. There are too many red flags.

In terms of defensive RD, I'd really target Warren and Barabosha. For upside, Rinzel is easily the 2022 Draft's Scott Morrow, but he may be gone in the 1st. Other "upside" guys I'd say are Michael Fisher and Ryan Healey. Falling in the middle of these two categories is Michael Mastrodomenico.

I also like Seamus Casey, who is small but plays an extremely solid two-way game. Also on the US-NTDP, Charlie Leddy is a nice, defensive low-event player for the late rounds.

But I'd certainly be careful about the red flag guys, Salomonsson and Lamoureux. I'd also avoid the "no defense defenders" like Nelson and Havelid.
 

Captain3rdLine

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Read post #41 on this thread, I compare Lamoureux to Warren, with Warren easily coming out on top as the superior prospect in the second round.

I have Salomonsson ranked at #110, and would not even sniff him until the 5th round. There are too many red flags.

In terms of defensive RD, I'd really target Warren and Barabosha. For upside, Rinzel is easily the 2022 Draft's Scott Morrow, but he may be gone in the 1st. Other "upside" guys I'd say are Michael Fisher and Ryan Healey. Falling in the middle of these two categories is Michael Mastrodomenico.

I also like Seamus Casey, who is small but plays an extremely solid two-way game. Also on the US-NTDP, Charlie Leddy is a nice, defensive low-event player for the late rounds.

But I'd certainly be careful about the red flag guys, Salomonsson and Lamoureux. I'd also avoid the "no defense defenders" like Nelson and Havelid.
I like Lamoureux more than Warren and don’t really see red flags with him. Just see him as a guy that has the tools to be very good but is gonna take some time to get there. Obviously neither of them are locks but I have a hard time seeing Warren developing into much more than a 3rd pairing defensemen.

I’d be fine with Warren but I like Lamoureux’s upside more.
 
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HobokenIrish

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I just simulated a draft using the McKenzie rankings. Slafkovsky went first, so I made a boatload of trades to ensure I'd fill the Devils RD hole (Jiricek, Barabosha, Fisher), get a couple stud centers who could also slot to wing (McGroarty, Morrison), get high upside wingers with top 6 potential (Perevalov, Vilmanis), get a physical, interior winger (Schaefer), plus a couple of hard-nosed wingers with defensive chops and offensive pop to change the dynamic of the future bottom 6 (Sykora, Nguyen).

If I failed anywhere, it's that I forgot to draft a goalie and that I should have thought more about team speed. My top 4 picks of Jiricek, McGroarty, Schaefer and Perevalov are all terrific prospects, but none feature high-end skating to any degree. Strangely, every one of my last 6 picks is an excellent skater, though.




I would not be upset with this result at all. We get that franchise RD and Mcgroarty, Schaefer, Prevalov are all guys who have immense potential. Thats before even getting to the rest.

If Slaf goes first I would think Seattle and Arizona would want that Franchise 1C and may just pay a King's ransom to get in position.
 

Captain3rdLine

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More Grits and Ok style 4th and later picks, dagnabit. I want a sexy prospect pool from top to bottom.

And I want a bruising winger with some pop. Holding out hope for the Zohan Bar-da-Koch or something from 80s Flash Gordon.

Hawkman was awesome. Let’s get him to play bottom six.
Ok was a second round pick.
 

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