Speculation: 2022 Coyotes Off Season Discussion Vol. 2

[rt]

You and @rt are probably right. I'm not good at valuation and trade proposals, that's why I usually just watch. My main point is that I think we're going to regret not getting the Columbus deal. I'm expecting Chychrun to miss significant time due to injury like he always does and his value to drop more. If that were to happen, I was thinking that in hindsight we could end up regretting not getting the 12th OA, even if it were straight up.

If Chychrun gets injured again this season and misses significant time and/or doesn't dazzle, where do you guys think his value will end up?

Still not less than Kuemper or Dvorak probably. And it seems like those are the types of packages we’re declining. Which is okay.

 

[Kai Yo T]

Still not less than Kuemper or Dvorak probably. And it seems like those are the types of packages we’re declining. Which is okay.

I agree that we should get more than we did for Kuemper or Dvorak. I'm probably about to show just how clueless I really am at judging value, but here goes lol.

Wouldn't the 12th overall have more value than a late first in 2022 and a second that's not until 2024, like we got for Dvorak? Even if both picks were in 2022 I'd assume we wouldn't be able to package the two and trade up as high as 12OA, would we?

For Kuemper we got Timmins who hasn't played a full season due to injuries (like Chych but with a shorter sample size, still missing a lot of games) along with another late first and a third. How far apart is that from the value of the 12th overall?

I'm not arguing with you here lol, just figuring out your perspective.

Edit: To me the 12OA says quality and the others say quantity.

 

[rt]

I agree that we should get more than we did for Kuemper or Dvorak. I'm probably about to show just how clueless I really am at judging value, but here goes lol.

Wouldn't the 12th overall have more value than a late first in 2022 and a second that's not until 2024, like we got for Dvorak? Even if both picks were in 2022 I'd assume we wouldn't be able to package the two and trade up as high as 12OA, would we?

For Kuemper we got Timmins who hasn't played a full season due to injuries (like Chych but with a shorter sample size, still missing a lot of games) along with another late first and a third. How far apart is that from the value of the 12th overall?

I'm not arguing with you here lol, just figuring out your perspective.

Edit: To me the 12OA says quality and the others say quantity.

Timmins was worth arguably as much as the Avs 1st at the time.

A pick expected to be in the late 20s and a prospect worth a pick in the 20s-30s is roughly equivalent to a 12th overall pick, I think. Look at the cost to move up for Geekie, for example.

And I think Chychrun is worth MORE rather than the same amount. So for me that’s two assets worth roughly 25th overall and one asset worth roughly 55th overall. I’ve been saying that since around the time Marek dropped those insane Knight+Lundell rumors. I’ve allowed other rumors to sway my opinion but my current and original impulse was 25+25+55.

 

[Kai Yo T]

Timmins was worth arguably as much as the Avs 1st at the time.

A pick expected to be in the late 20s and a prospect worth a pick in the 20s-30s is roughly equivalent to a 12th overall pick, I think. Look at the cost to move up for Geekie, for example.

And I think Chychrun is worth MORE rather than the same amount. So for me that’s two assets worth roughly 25th overall and one asset worth roughly 55th overall. I’ve been saying that since around the time Marek dropped those insane Knight+Lundell rumors. I’ve allowed other rumors to sway my opinion but my current and original impulse was 25+25+55.

That seems fair. I appreciate the response. Gives me some more perspective from someone with more knowledge on trade values than myself, specifically regarding how much value last year's 12OA had.

 

[jmelm]

You and @rt are probably right. I'm not good at valuation and trade proposals, that's why I usually just watch. My main point is that I think we're going to regret not getting the Columbus deal. I'm expecting Chychrun to miss significant time due to injury like he always does and his value to drop more. If that were to happen, I was thinking that in hindsight we could end up regretting not getting the 12th OA, even if it were straight up.

If Chychrun gets injured again this season and misses significant time and/or doesn't dazzle, where do you guys think his value will end up?

I personally don't see an absolute can't miss "front-line" player that was still on the board at #12. By that I mean someone who's a legit top pairing Dman or first line forward. There are players that I like (and some may turn out to reach that high end) but most of the available players were F's projected to be top-6/middle-6 wingers (aka 2nd/3rd line) or Dman that project to be #3's or 4's.

If we're going to trade Chychrun for a single pick or prospect, it has to be used for someone who has that clear cut #1 or #2 Dman potential, or top line scoring winger or legit top 6 C (high end #2 at least).

You've got a good chance to get that type of player in the 2023 (or some prior years) at #12 overall, but not who was still on the board at #12 in the 2022 draft IMO.

 

[rt]

That seems fair. I appreciate the response. Gives me some more perspective from someone with more knowledge on trade values than myself, specifically regarding how much value last year's 12OA had.

I don’t know anything at all. I just make stuff up.

 

[Kai Yo T]

I don’t know anything at all. I just make stuff up.

You fake it better than I do

 

[Puck possession wins]

Not concerned with winning too many games. I'd like to win Bedard or one of the other top guys but I'd prefer to do it with lottery luck and not by having the best odds.

No more playing with lottery luck. We’ve seen how that has turned out for us.

We need to be historically bad, and finally finish in last place in the league.

If we finish last and don’t win the lottery for Bedard, fine, I’ll live with that.

But I am not, and will not in good conscious, lose out on the next greatest Russian forward we’ve seen since Ovechkin, or the next best center prospect who is in the vein of Auston Matthews.

The future of our franchise depends upon landing one of those three players.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

The future of our franchise depends upon landing one of those three players.

No offense, but I think that's a tad melodramatic. The draft offers no guarantees, not even with generational players. Ask Edmonton about this.

 

[TheLegend]

 

[Dirty Old Man]

No offense, but I think that's a tad melodramatic. The draft offers no guarantees, not even with generational players. Ask Edmonton about this.

It's more than a tad.

The future of the franchise depends on the arena, full stop. Without it, it becomes a new franchise in a different part of the world and I stop caring.

 

[Jakey53]

It's more than a tad.

The future of the franchise depends on the arena, full stop. Without it, it becomes a new franchise in a different part of the world and I stop caring.

We all have been told that AM has a plan B, as in another location here in the valley.

 

[AZviaNJ]

NYR just turned Lundquist into a ‘23 1st (top 10 protected) from a borderline playoff team.

Hope for a Chychrun haul just increased significantly.

 

[rt]

NYR just turned Lundquist into a ‘23 1st (top 10 protected) from a borderline playoff team.

Hope for a Chychrun haul just increased significantly.

Seems like an enormous overpayment. My first reaction is shock. I would say that's a very stupid trade by the Stars but their amateur scouts are looking hard to doubt right now. They've been absolutely crushing it at the draft table lately. So as much as I want to hate on that trade, I have to trust them to some extent.

 

[TheLegend]

Corey Pronman’s top 170 NHL prospects 23 and under:

https://theathletic.com/3509131/2022/08/29/nhl-players-prospects-rankings-under-23/?source=user_shared_article

17. Logan Cooley
25. Dylan Guenther
44. Barrett Hayton
124. Conor Geekie
133. Janis Moser
136. Victor Soederstrom
141. Jan Jenik

 

[TheLegend]

Uh…… this may not go over well……

 

[Mosby]

Expect a 7-year extension to the CHL/NHL agreement. No changes, despite early discussions trending toward something different.

 

[Dirty Old Man]

Uh…… this may not go over well……

View attachment 586345

Austin, TX move announcement incoming

 

[rt]

Expect a 7-year extension to the CHL/NHL agreement. No changes, despite early discussions trending toward something different.

Bummer.

Uh…… this may not go over well……

View attachment 586345

Sounds bad. We shall see.

So is Barrett Hayton officially a hold-out? Kind of ridiculous.

 

[Jakey53]

Uh…… this may not go over well……

View attachment 586345

We are making McDavid feel at home after the trade.

Bummer.


Sounds bad. We shall see.

So is Barrett Hayton officially a hold-out? Kind of ridiculous.

Hayton, like most on this board, thinks he is worth more than he is.

 

[Imaravencawcaw]

Uh…… this may not go over well……

View attachment 586345

So I guess that means they're taking the burnt orange from the face/hands/feet of the kachina coyote as the base of their reverse retro this year. Interesting choice for sure, especially because I think that color will be very similar to Anaheim's orange. I was hoping for something in the saguaro green myself.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

So I guess that means they're taking the burnt orange from the face/hands/feet of the kachina coyote as the base of their reverse retro this year. Interesting choice for sure, especially because I think that color will be very similar to Anaheim's orange. I was hoping for something in the saguaro green myself.

I don't think it's going to be Anaheim (or, god forbid, Edmonton) orange. I think it's probably going to be a more rusty color, more copperish than true orange. At least, I hope that's what they're going to do. I'll save the Chicken Little'ing until I see it.

 

[Schemp]

Isn't burnt orange another name for brown or am I color deficient?

 

[Fyreman]

Isn't burnt orange another name for brown or am I color deficient?

Think Texas Longhorns "burnt orange."

 

[The Feckless Puck]

Think Texas Longhorns "burnt orange."