Speculation: 2021 Sharks Offseason Roster Discussion part III

[Pinkfloyd]

This is workable. MEV just needs to be convinced he's the missing piece for Montreal to win the cup.

If it were up to me, I'd take on as many short term cap dumps as needed to move Vlasic out including retaining 1.5 mil on him. I'd also buy him out now if the trade wasn't an option for whatever reason. However, I don't think he's truly tradeable until they pay his 2.5 mil bonus in 2024 but he could be so bad by then if he declines further which is definitely possible.

 

[Barrie22]

Lol parise and suter sign together and get bought out together lol.

 

[STL Shark]

Lol parise and suter sign together and get bought out together lol.

That's some massive coin going on the books years 2-4. $13 million in dead cap space for 2022-23 and $15 million in dead cap space for the two seasons after that.

 

[Lebanezer]

That's some massive coin going on the books years 2-4. $13 million in dead cap space for 2022-23 and $15 million in dead cap space for the two seasons after that.

There had to be other options if Duncan Keith can be traded.

 

[STL Shark]

There had to be other options if Duncan Keith can be traded.

All goes back to my point of term and NMC's being the most significant obstacle to any of the deals for big contracts on aging players. Suter is a better player than Keith right now, but he has 4 years left on his deal rather than 2 and that is a major sticking point in dealing for aging guys along with the fact that Keith only costs $3.6 million of actual dollars over the rest of his deal.

 

[Erep]

That's some massive coin going on the books years 2-4. $13 million in dead cap space for 2022-23 and $15 million in dead cap space for the two seasons after that.

When you include the min contract that will have to replace them, it is more cap hit than just playing them out would be. It only really helps them for this one year...

All goes back to my point of term and NMC's being the most significant obstacle to any of the deals for big contracts on aging players. Suter is a better player than Keith right now, but he has 4 years left on his deal rather than 2 and that is a major sticking point in dealing for aging guys along with the fact that Keith only costs $3.6 million of actual dollars over the rest of his deal.

I don't think the Keith trade reflects on anything other than GMs are dumb and chase after "cup champions"...

 

[sharski]

I've pretty much gone broke on multiple bets on a Jones comeback

Should I bet my last $5 on a vlasic comeback this year

 

[STL Shark]

When you include the min contract that will have to replace them, it is more cap hit than just playing them out would be. It only really helps them for this one year...

I don't think the Keith trade reflects on anything other than GMs are dumb and chase after "cup champions"...

Helps this year and also allows them to keep Dumba and another forward in the expansion draft. Get why they did it and overall think it's a net positive, but going to hurt quite a bit during those 3 years.

I do expect that Suter will re-sign though for league minimum on 1 year deals for the next little while to remain in Minny unless he's offended by being bought out. This was mostly to keep Dumba around.

 

[themelkman]

Jones is done. Even the biggest optimist should see that

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I'm as ready as I'll ever be to buy out both Jones and Vlasic now but like after the expansion draft. lol

 

[STL Shark]

I'm as ready as I'll ever be to buy out both Jones and Vlasic now but like after the expansion draft. lol

I have been staunchly against doing Vlasic, but seeing Minnesota do this has me pondering. Would love it if he could hold on as a 3rd pairing D-Man for 2 more seasons and buy him out in the summer of 2023 to lessen the term of the buyout and make it slightly cheaper each year.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I have been staunchly against doing Vlasic, but seeing Minnesota do this has me pondering. Would love it if he could hold on as a 3rd pairing D-Man for 2 more seasons and buy him out in the summer of 2023 to lessen the term of the buyout and make it slightly cheaper each year.

I'm at the point where I'm okay with either keeping him another season or buying him out now because he did do well enough for a 3rd pairing guy and I just don't trust Simek to stay healthy enough to anchor a 3rd pairing with one of our LHD prospects. But if some miracle occurs where Merkley starts tearing up the AHL, Vlasic's gotta go.

 

[one2gamble]

That Wild move is just a shocker to me

 

[STL Shark]

I'm at the point where I'm okay with either keeping him another season or buying him out now because he did do well enough for a 3rd pairing guy and I just don't trust Simek to stay healthy enough to anchor a 3rd pairing with one of our LHD prospects. But if some miracle occurs where Merkley starts tearing up the AHL, Vlasic's gotta go.

In my ideal world (and the only way I am buying out Vlasic probably), both Vlasic and Simek would be gone. Go find EK65 a legitimate top 4 LHD partner with the cap savings and bump Knyzhov down to the 3rd pairing with a cheap veteran RHD to play DZ starts and PK so that Burns and Karlsson don't have to carry as big of a load there.

EK65 is here to stay, so may as well invest in trying to find him an actual D partner rather than having him continue to toil away with rookies or past their prime veterans.

 

[Barrie22]

Helps this year and also allows them to keep Dumba and another forward in the expansion draft. Get why they did it and overall think it's a net positive, but going to hurt quite a bit during those 3 years.

I do expect that Suter will re-sign though for league minimum on 1 year deals for the next little while to remain in Minny unless he's offended by being bought out. This was mostly to keep Dumba around.

After a buy out, a team can't re-sign that player.

 

[Hodge]

THIS is the upside of firing Doug Wilson. Minnesota brought in a GM who wasn't emotionally invested in their roster and he had the objectivity necessary to realize their "core" was going nowhere. Now in less than two years he has jettisoned Staal, Koivu, Dubnyk, Parise and Suter.

What the Sharks need is a Guerin who can come in and make the obvious determination that Couture, Vlasic, Karlsson and Jones need to go by any means necessary.

 

[STL Shark]

After a buy out, a team can't re-sign that player.

Yes they can. Just not after a compliance buyout. Calgary did it with Michael Stone like 2 years ago.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

THIS is the upside of firing Doug Wilson. Minnesota brought in a GM who wasn't emotionally invested in their roster and he had the objectivity necessary to realize their "core" was going nowhere. Now in less than two years he has jettisoned Staal, Koivu, Dubnyk, Parise and Suter.

What the Sharks need is a Guerin who can come in and make the obvious determination that Couture, Vlasic, Karlsson and Jones need to go by any means necessary.

I don't think it is about emotional attachment really. Its about what the return for any of the players would be. Trades/Buyouts for Couture, Vlasic, Karlsson, Jones will do NOTHING to make the Sharks better next season. Despite their poor contracts, they give the best chance to win now. Admittedly that 'chance' is probably that of being a bubble team but it does look like the organization is more interested in the best chance to make the playoffs

 

[Hodge]

I don't think it is about emotional attachment really. Its about what the return for any of the players would be. Trades/Buyouts for Couture, Vlasic, Karlsson, Jones will do NOTHING to make the Sharks better next season. Despite their poor contracts, they give the best chance to win now. Admittedly that 'chance' is probably that of being a bubble team but it does look like the organization is more interested in the best chance to make the playoffs

I don't think Guerin made these moves to improve the Wild in the short term. In fact losing Suter probably makes them quite a bit worse since he was still performing at a top four level. It's more about charting a new direction for the franchise instead of coming back every year with the same collection of overpaid declining veterans and lying to the fanbase that a patchwork team built around those contracts can compete for anything meaningful.

Essentially this is what a "reset" or taking one step back to take two steps forward actually looks like. Not what Wilson is selling.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

I don't think Guerin made these moves to improve the Wild in the short term. In fact losing Suter probably makes them quite a bit worse since he was still performing at a top four level. It's more about charting a new direction for the franchise instead of coming back every year with the same collection of overpaid declining veterans and lying to the fanbase that a patchwork team built around those contracts can compete for anything meaningful.

Essentially this is what a "reset" or taking one step back to take two steps forward actually looks like. Not what Wilson is selling.

Right. But my point is that Guerin is obviously doing this based on the directive of the ownership. Focus more on the future than in the short term.

The directive from the Sharks ownership seems to be more about 'win now'. They don't seem to care that the current team is at best only a bubble playoff team. They would rather stick with that than try to lose playoff revenue while trying to rebuild. Does not matter if we agree or disagree with that decision, this team is not interested as much in the future as it is in the now.

 

[Levie]

Jones is done. Even the biggest optimist should see that

I still think Jones has a place on an NHL roster that wants to compete... for 1st overall.

 

[Hodge]

Right. But my point is that Guerin is obviously doing this based on the directive of the ownership. Focus more on the future than in the short term.

The directive from the Sharks ownership seems to be more about 'win now'. They don't seem to care that the current team is at best only a bubble playoff team. They would rather stick with that than try to lose playoff revenue while trying to rebuild. Does not matter if we agree or disagree with that decision, this team is not interested as much in the future as it is in the now.

It's hard to know how set in stone ownership's position on this is because I doubt Wilson has ever suggested a long term rebuild to them. If a different GM came in and laid out how hopeless any chance of even getting substantial playoff revenue out of this roster is and the benefits of a long term rebuild in that regard maybe they would change their tune.

The argument against firing Wilson is that nobody would be able to come in and fix this mess overnight. That's fair. But to me the greater concern is that there appears to be no recognition org-wide that this even is a mess to begin with. That's the perspective an outside hire could provide. Minnesota's ownership was fine letting the team toil in mediocrity for a decade until Guerin came in and decided to change course.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

In my ideal world (and the only way I am buying out Vlasic probably), both Vlasic and Simek would be gone. Go find EK65 a legitimate top 4 LHD partner with the cap savings and bump Knyzhov down to the 3rd pairing with a cheap veteran RHD to play DZ starts and PK so that Burns and Karlsson don't have to carry as big of a load there.

EK65 is here to stay, so may as well invest in trying to find him an actual D partner rather than having him continue to toil away with rookies or past their prime veterans.

I wouldn't have a problem going this route. I just don't know if the team actually does it. If the rumors are to be believed, Kane and Labanc are on the trading block, they're looking for a 3C, and to address the goaltending. It would seem to me that the most likely move on defense is exposing Simek, maybe even making a deal with Seattle to ensure he's the one taken, and open that spot up for competition.

I agree with trying to take PK load off of Burns and Karlsson. I'd be alright with getting a more solid option to play across Karlsson but Knyzhov has a lot of the tools you'd like to see playing with him. He just needs more seasoning and more patience.

 

[Herschel]

I've pretty much gone broke on multiple bets on a Jones comeback

Should I bet my last $5 on a vlasic comeback this year

Depends on what you consider a comeback? I see very little chance of Vlasic being worse than solid 3rd pairing Dman next season. If you want him to be a steady top 4 D many I would say 50/50 depending on how he went into the offseason. If you are betting on him being a vintage shutdown Vlasic there is next to no chance of that happening.

 

[Herschel]

It's hard to know how set in stone ownership's position on this is because I doubt Wilson has ever suggested a long term rebuild to them. If a different GM came in and laid out how hopeless any chance of even getting substantial playoff revenue out of this roster is and the benefits of a long term rebuild in that regard maybe they would change their tune.

The argument against firing Wilson is that nobody would be able to come in and fix this mess overnight. That's fair. But to me the greater concern is that there appears to be no recognition org-wide that this even is a mess to begin with. That's the perspective an outside hire could provide. Minnesota's ownership was fine letting the team toil in mediocrity for a decade until Guerin came in and decided to change course.

I disagree with this, the moves that DW made, or didn't make, suggest there is recognition of the situation. It would have been very easy for DW to justify adding at the TDL last season to make a run at a playoff spot.

The moves that he makes this offseason will likely tell the same story. I suspect that outside of a blockbuster big move he is going to add a goalie and 3C without using 1st or 2nd round draft picks. This is likely going to decrease the quality of players available but fits a long term plan to restock.