Speculation: 2021 Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft

[HoseEmDown]

Yeah, agreed. There are way too many already giving up on Cirelli after basically one bad half season's worth of games, gimme a break. He's not going to be some throw in to get rid of Johnson, and as you said, even if JBB was thinking of a trade, he'd have good value to someone.

I don't think anybody is giving up on him they just don't think he's one of our 4 best forwards anymore. He's also not living up to his contract. I don't know why they gave him 4.8M for 3 year? For a team that's in a win now mode and in cap trouble you can't have players not playing up to or close to their contract, Cirelli like Johnson isn't living up to the contract.

So I'm going to compare Cirelli to Joseph, they were both drafted in 2015 one round apart, WJC, played in the memorial cup, went pro the same year, NHL rookies the same year. Joseph had better junior numbers, lead Syracuse in points their rookie year, yes Cirelli finished with Tampa but Joseph had the better ppg. So first pro season is probably a wash. Now if you compare 18/19 and 20/21 you get Cirelli with 128gp 28g 33a 61p, ES 20g 28a 48p, Joseph 132gp 25g 19a 44p, ES 24g 16a 40p. So over those two seasons Cirelli has the better overall numbers with them very close at ES but Cirelli played more minutes so Joseph the better p/60. If you use those seasons and their rookie ones they aren’t too far apart at least not over 4M which is what they are now. I know Cirelli had a great 19/20 season while Joseph struggled but was it that good where he needed to be paid that kind of money? Last season Joseph had a stretch like this Cirelli one, don't even think it was as bad, and he was sent down. Obviously Cirelli would need waivers this year but if this was last season does he get sent down for Stephens and get league minimum? Think BriseBois messed up that signing.

As for what kind of value Cirelli has they may get some picks or prospects for him but it's going to cost picks and prospects to move Johnson. Seattle might want more picks or prospects than we want to trade or not take Johnson unless we really make it worth while. Dumping Cirelli to move Johnson wouldn't be a bad move as it would clear 9.8M and gets two underachievers off the roster. Opens up spots for kids and gives us cap room to potentially keep Coleman and surely Goodrow.

 

[BoltzManConstant]

I don't think anybody is giving up on him they just don't think he's one of our 4 best forwards anymore. He's also not living up to his contract. I don't know why they gave him 4.8M for 3 year? For a team that's in a win now mode and in cap trouble you can't have players not playing up to or close to their contract, Cirelli like Johnson isn't living up to the contract.

So I'm going to compare Cirelli to Joseph, they were both drafted in 2015 one round apart, WJC, played in the memorial cup, went pro the same year, NHL rookies the same year. Joseph had better junior numbers, lead Syracuse in points their rookie year, yes Cirelli finished with Tampa but Joseph had the better ppg. So first pro season is probably a wash. Now if you compare 18/19 and 20/21 you get Cirelli with 128gp 28g 33a 61p, ES 20g 28a 48p, Joseph 132gp 25g 19a 44p, ES 24g 16a 40p. So over those two seasons Cirelli has the better overall numbers with them very close at ES but Cirelli played more minutes so Joseph the better p/60. If you use those seasons and their rookie ones they aren’t too far apart at least not over 4M which is what they are now. I know Cirelli had a great 19/20 season while Joseph struggled but was it that good where he needed to be paid that kind of money? Last season Joseph had a stretch like this Cirelli one, don't even think it was as bad, and he was sent down. Obviously Cirelli would need waivers this year but if this was last season does he get sent down for Stephens and get league minimum? Think BriseBois messed up that signing.

As for what kind of value Cirelli has they may get some picks or prospects for him but it's going to cost picks and prospects to move Johnson. Seattle might want more picks or prospects than we want to trade or not take Johnson unless we really make it worth while. Dumping Cirelli to move Johnson wouldn't be a bad move as it would clear 9.8M and gets two underachievers off the roster. Opens up spots for kids and gives us cap room to potentially keep Coleman and surely Goodrow.

You've answered your own question. Other teams would be willing to give us assets for Cirelli on his current contract, so yes he's reasonably worth what he's getting paid.

That's in contrast with Johnson, who we can't give away, because he's not worth what he's getting paid.

You may want to give up on Cirelli, but the league still perceives him as valuable -- because he is.

I'm not opposed to trading him to make our numbers work while not stripping the prospect pool completely bare. But it would still be painful to part with him.

 

[Outl4w]

What if he gave up Cirelli to unload Johnson we got pack a 3/4/5 level pick ? They get two top 9 forwards and one with top 6 potential. I dont want to lose Cirelli because he may be apart of our future as a 2 center. He is not making the case for it presently. Hoepfully he rebounds and we just dumop Johnson witha 1 or 2 .

 

[HoseEmDown]

You've answered your own question. Other teams would be willing to give us assets for Cirelli on his current contract, so yes he's reasonably worth what he's getting paid.

That's in contrast with Johnson, who we can't give away, because he's not worth what he's getting paid.

You may want to give up on Cirelli, but the league still perceives him as valuable -- because he is.

I'm not opposed to trading him to make our numbers work while not stripping the prospect pool completely bare. But it would still be painful to part with him.

I said teams may give those things I didn't say they would be good picks or prospects. So he may have more value but the way he's currently playing it may not be much more. The things he has going over Johnson is one less year on his deal, if bought out it costs only 1/3 compared to 2/3 and he's better defensively so if the offense is the same you at least get a little something from him. But when you look at offense Johnson is scoring at a 1.58 p/60 5v5 while Cirelli is 1.31. Johnson is better offensively than Cirelli this year. Last year Cirelli was at 1.86 and Johnson 1.80 so slight edge to Cirelli but in 18/19 Johnson was 1.93 and Cirelli 1.70. Over the last 3 seasons Johnson is 1.80 to Cirelli 1.67, so I wouldn't call Johnson a complete waste and a massive cap dump.

I also don't know how the league perceives Cirelli anymore, if this slide continues he could be the next Wennberg. Started out hot offensively then it dried up after signing a big contract. Cirelli isn't signed for 6 years like Wennberg was but he does have to be qualified at 5.8M on his next deal, unless something changes he isn't a 5.8M player, he's not a 4.8M right now either. Another thing that's not good about trading him before the ED is that we will lose another player instead. So it could be Cirelli and Palat or Killorn instead of trading Cirelli to Seattle so they take Johnson.

 

[JTBF81]

Tampa has rarely if ever given union a player like Cirelli after signing him to a bridge. He has been a high level shutdown C who is now in a slump. His contract was a slight overpay, but he was at a .56 ppg or 46 point pace. In combination with what he brings defensively, it was nothing ridiculous. I thought 4.25, maybe 4.5, but 4.8 wasn't that outrageous.

Tampa will never pay multiple high level assets to move Johnson, as they'll retain a little and move him.to one of 20 teams or buy him out if needed.

Having Seattle take McD is the most sensible play. JBB saw the weakness on the right side of the defense and will no doubt try and re-sign Savard. Foote isn't quite ready yet for a top 4 role, Schenn is serviceable as a 6/7, and Rutta will be good for maybe half the year before the glass breaks again and he's out for 2 months+. Tampa has Seattle take McD, trades whomever between Killorn and Palat they decide is best for the team, and lose Coleman to a team overpaying.

If Cirelli was actually available, the return in futures would need to be very good, and even then McD would need to go if they wanted to keep Coleman and both Palat/Killorn. Obviously if Savard makes it clear he has no desire to stay here than JBB will have to reevaluate, but this way forward helps with the cap.next year and beyond. Unless the team can convince McD to waive in a few years, that 6.75 will likely become an anchor when Tampa is trying to keep other key players.

 

[HoseEmDown]

Tampa has rarely if ever given union a player like Cirelli after signing him to a bridge. He has been a high level shutdown C who is now in a slump. His contract was a slight overpay, but he was at a .56 ppg or 46 point pace. In combination with what he brings defensively, it was nothing ridiculous. I thought 4.25, maybe 4.5, but 4.8 wasn't that outrageous.

Tampa will never pay multiple high level assets to move Johnson, as they'll retain a little and move him.to one of 20 teams or buy him out if needed.

Having Seattle take McD is the most sensible play. JBB saw the weakness on the right side of the defense and will no doubt try and re-sign Savard. Foote isn't quite ready yet for a top 4 role, Schenn is serviceable as a 6/7, and Rutta will be good for maybe half the year before the glass breaks again and he's out for 2 months+. Tampa has Seattle take McD, trades whomever between Killorn and Palat they decide is best for the team, and lose Coleman to a team overpaying.

If Cirelli was actually available, the return in futures would need to be very good, and even then McD would need to go if they wanted to keep Coleman and both Palat/Killorn. Obviously if Savard makes it clear he has no desire to stay here than JBB will have to reevaluate, but this way forward helps with the cap.next year and beyond. Unless the team can convince McD to waive in a few years, that 6.75 will likely become an anchor when Tampa is trying to keep other key players.

Savard and McDonagh are just a year apart in age. Savard made 4.25M on his last contract and will be one of the top D available especially RD. So I can't see him taking anything less than 4M and probably 4 years. If that's the case might as well keep McDonagh who would have just 5 years left. He would make 2M or more extra but he's a much better player and if you think McDonagh will fall off because of age so will Savard. If Savard was signing 3x3 then sure but that isn't happening.

 

[JTBF81]

Savard and McDonagh are just a year apart in age. Savard made 4.25M on his last contract and will be one of the top D available especially RD. So I can't see him taking anything less than 4M and probably 4 years. If that's the case might as well keep McDonagh who would have just 5 years left. He would make 2M or more extra but he's a much better player and if you think McDonagh will fall off because of age so will Savard. If Savard was signing 3x3 then sure but that isn't happening.

If Savard would sign 4x4, JBB would run to file.the paperwork. He is much more of a priority as Tampa only has one top 4 RD, and Tampa needs that stability(not to mention the near 3.million in cap savings here, which is significant). There is no realistic team roster for next year that keeps McD and doesn't have a gutted F group and a right side defense that looks as fragile as this year's before the Savard acquisition. The hefty price JBB paid for Savard only further made this seem probable. The team looks mostly fine loaing McD, re-signing Savard, finding a 3LD for ~1.5, and having Foote/Schenn as 3RD(with potentially guys like Thomas and Claesson as additional depth).

The F group loses 2 of the following 4(after getting rid of Johnson via retained trade or buyout): Killorn, Palat, Coleman or Cirelli. If they highly value the Gourde line moving forward, then Palat and Killorn can go, or keep Palat amd Coleman while recouping several draft picks for Killorn and Cirelli. I still view Cirelli being shopped as highly doubtful, but moving on from Palat now with a good return(and doubts as to whether the cojld re-sign him after next year anyway perhaps), plus getting some value back for Killorn could be the way they are thinking. There are several reasonable options for the F group to be sure, but only with the flexibility that moving McD to Seattle brings.

 

[Lightning1995]

Let’s see how the playoffs go down, but right now I would protect...
Vassy
Heddy Serge Cernek Foote
Stammer Point Kuch, Palat or Guorde

Would consider replacing Foote for both Palat and Guorde, Colton Joseph or ABB

Let them take Cirelli or McDonagh. Have to move some salary

Just around the corner now.

At this point I would go 7-3-1 and roll the dice Seattle won’t take on that McDonagh contract.

Vassy
Heddy, Serge, Cernek
Point, Kuch, Stammer, Cirelli, Killer, Colton, Palat/Guorde

Hopefully Seattle will take some money off the books, but they could take Foote. Simply can’t afford to lose Colton IMO.

 

[HoseEmDown]

Just around the corner now.

At this point I would go 7-3-1 and roll the dice Seattle won’t take on that McDonagh contract.

Vassy
Heddy, Serge, Cernek
Point, Kuch, Stammer, Cirelli, Killer, Colton, Palat/Guorde

Hopefully Seattle will take some money off the books, but they could take Foote. Simply can’t afford to lose Colton IMO.

You don't protect Colton over Gourde and Palat. Even if you plan to just trade Palat you protect him over Colton, much higher trade value. Colton value across the league isn't as high and he's not as important as Gourde or Palat. I like Colton but he can't play that style 3C that Gourde has been. You hope Seattle takes Foote and then you work a trade to get Johnson off the books and Palat as well. Colton then gets a bigger role. But if Seattle picks him it stinks but not a big deal, we have Barre-Boulet, Katchouk and Raddysh still.

 

[Lightning1995]

You don't protect Colton over Gourde and Palat. Even if you plan to just trade Palat you protect him over Colton, much higher trade value. Colton value across the league isn't as high and he's not as important as Gourde or Palat. I like Colton but he can't play that style 3C that Gourde has been. You hope Seattle takes Foote and then you work a trade to get Johnson off the books and Palat as well. Colton then gets a bigger role. But if Seattle picks him it stinks but not a big deal, we have Barre-Boulet, Katchouk and Raddysh still.

If you lose Guorde maybe we could resign Coleman. You have to consider the dollars not just who is better.

 

[HoseEmDown]

If you lose Guorde maybe we could resign Coleman. You have to consider the dollars not just who is better.

Sure, if the price is right. Think we could offer 3M possibly up to 3.5M if we make enough other moves. Colton slides into the 3C spot and we've saved some money. The only problem is I don't think we've talked contract with him and we probably won't be able to until we know who we can move out first, so by that time he probably signs elsewhere.

 

[Lightning1995]

Sure, if the price is right. Think we could offer 3M possibly up to 3.5M if we make enough other moves. Colton slides into the 3C spot and we've saved some money. The only problem is I don't think we've talked contract with him and we probably won't be able to until we know who we can move out first, so by that time he probably signs elsewhere.

If there is a chance of keeping him I imagine they have atleast communicated that. Perhaps the Lightning get a last look. But signing Coleman just means losing someone else. He may be worth it.

 

[GoBoltz56]

If you lose Guorde maybe we could resign Coleman. You have to consider the dollars not just who is better.

But how? As Dougie Hamilton so graciously pointed out (sour grapes, eh?) we are 9.5 mil over the cap. If we lose Gourde, we'd STILL have to clear 4.5 mil just to be compliant for next season. I don't see how we would be able to give anyone a raise unless we cleared 10-11 mil in cap.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

But how? As Dougie Hamilton so graciously pointed out (sour grapes, eh?) we are 9.5 mil over the cap. If we lose Gourde, we'd STILL have to clear 4.5 mil just to be compliant for next season. I don't see how we would be able to give anyone a raise unless we cleared 10-11 mil in cap.

This is sadly our last year of keeping everyone together. The off season is going to be fun to watch. Hedman might start the season on LTIR which will give us some extra time perhaps.

 

[HoseEmDown]

But how? As Dougie Hamilton so graciously pointed out (sour grapes, eh?) we are 9.5 mil over the cap. If we lose Gourde, we'd STILL have to clear 4.5 mil just to be compliant for next season. I don't see how we would be able to give anyone a raise unless we cleared 10-11 mil in cap.

How are we 9.5M over the cap? We are 3.5M over the cap but with only 17 players but nobody needing significant money. Say we sign Foote, Colton, backup keeper, 7D to run just 21 that's probably 3.5M so 7M over. Move out Johnson and Palat you have 3.3M room, bring up Raddysh, Barre-Boulet and Katchouk. Still little cash for maybe Goodrow?

 

[BoltsOfAnarchy]

Sent Foote to Seattle so they take Johnson. Done. I’m honestly not too high on the kid anymore. Just hasn’t made the strides for someone drafted 3 years ago

let the rest of the off-season play out with moving salary & FA/resignings

 

[The Gongshow]

Sent Foote to Seattle so they take Johnson. Done. I’m honestly not too high on the kid anymore. Just hasn’t made the strides for someone drafted 3 years ago

let the rest of the off-season play out with moving salary & FA/resignings

I'd be interested in seeing how Thomas does next season. So IF we lost Foote I wouldn't be too bummed, that said I'm not giving up on Foote just yet

 

[GoBoltz56]

How are we 9.5M over the cap? We are 3.5M over the cap but with only 17 players but nobody needing significant money. Say we sign Foote, Colton, backup keeper, 7D to run just 21 that's probably 3.5M so 7M over. Move out Johnson and Palat you have 3.3M room, bring up Raddysh, Barre-Boulet and Katchouk. Still little cash for maybe Goodrow?

You basically reinforced my point, we are over the cap and still have to sign 5ish players to fill out the roster. In general, my point was that we will have to trade 2 names off the roster who are in the 5mil range, which it appears you agree with. Nobody is touching Johnson's contract with a 10 foot pole, that is obvious. So it will either be a massive throw in (1st and prospect) to get a team to take him, or we will have to trade Gourde and Palat, or Killorn. It's gonna sting.

 

[GoBoltz56]

Sent Foote to Seattle so they take Johnson. Done. I’m honestly not too high on the kid anymore. Just hasn’t made the strides for someone drafted 3 years ago

let the rest of the off-season play out with moving salary & FA/resignings

Foote doesn't have enough value to get Seattle to take on Johnson's contract. It'll take more than that. I can see us sending a 1st and prospect to take Johnson, and a handshake deal to take Foote in the expansion draft. It's steep, but we saw first-hand that nobody wanted Johnson.

 

[Rschmitz]

Foote doesn't have enough value to get Seattle to take on Johnson's contract. It'll take more than that. I can see us sending a 1st and prospect to take Johnson, and a handshake deal to take Foote in the expansion draft. It's steep, but we saw first-hand that nobody wanted Johnson.

Seattle could also just select Foote with their pick, and then they don't need to take on the TJ contract.

A more enticing idea IMO is that Seattle may really want McDonagh, and could be willing to take back TJ too if we add futures to sweeten the deal. It'll really hurt losing McDonagh but you could replace him with a solid guy on a 1 year deal and then use the cap space in another year to re-sign Point. It hurts but would get us out of cap hell for the foreseeable future.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Seattle could also just select Foote with their pick, and then they don't need to take on the TJ contract.

A more enticing idea IMO is that Seattle may really want McDonagh, and could be willing to take back TJ too if we add futures to sweeten the deal. It'll really hurt losing McDonagh but you could replace him with a solid guy on a 1 year deal and then use the cap space in another year to re-sign Point. It hurts but would get us out of cap hell for the foreseeable future.

We aren't losing McDonagh without knowing what state Hedman is in with his off season injury. Way too much of a risk.

 

[GoBoltz56]

Well of course Seattle doesn't HAVE to do anything. They can just sit back and force us to expose someone. But Johnson being from Washington could be a draw, just like Vegas had Engelland masquerading as a local and it got attention. But I was just proposing it as a way to dump Johnson..IF we get rid of him it'll cost us for sure.

 

[Rschmitz]

We aren't losing McDonagh without knowing what state Hedman is in with his off season injury. Way too much of a risk.

It’s an option more likely than I’d like to admit, we have to jettison cap space when the opportunity arises IMO

 

[Sky04]

Losing McDonagh absolutely shuts down our window, look at his role in this years playoffs. If we have to bite the bullet on the backhalf of his contract to keep the window open 2-3 more years it absolutely worth it. Watching everyone elses defense collapse while ours just had one of their best series just emphasizes how good it is.

 

[Sky04]

Seattle could also just select Foote with their pick, and then they don't need to take on the TJ contract.

A more enticing idea IMO is that Seattle may really want McDonagh, and could be willing to take back TJ too if we add futures to sweeten the deal. It'll really hurt losing McDonagh but you could replace him with a solid guy on a 1 year deal and then use the cap space in another year to re-sign Point. It hurts but would get us out of cap hell for the foreseeable future.

Why would WE have to add if they want McDonagh? They should be paying us for a guy that good, McDonagh could return much more than what it would cost to move Johnson.