Speculation: 2021 Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft

[BoltzManConstant]

Oh so you're just hung up on semantics? Ok, got it.

What actually matters is the product on the ice, not the bullshit terminology game of who is irreplaceable or untouchable. Four guys make to the heart of our core and won't be traded. No disagreement there. But if you dont see the problem with moving "x" player and not having someone to replace "x" player with, then I can't help you.

There is no replacement in our organization for McD. The fact you even mentioned Cernak is quite laughable. He's a great player and only going to get better, but who is his partner then? Sergachev. Which is exactly the point on the depth chart, IE, what matters to coaches. The "next guy up" isn't just a feel good phrase, it's literally, alright, who can we put there?

Going from;

Hedman - Rutta
McD - Cernak

To

Hedman - Rutta
Sergachev - Cernak

Is a big downgrade. Sergachev is not poised. He waited last night several times to make a play as the anchor defenseman to release the pass and three times passed it straight to the forechecker cause he's trying to be too cute. In his own end, he's an absolute tire fire when there's no pressure. He shows flashes, but we don't need flashes come playoffs, we need someone composed logging heavy minutes and penalty killing. I'm not knocking Sergachev as if he's awful, he's good and should still improve, but moving Mcdonagh is a step back. Cernak doesn't replace him, cause he's not the same handedness. So it's Sergachev and that guy, yeah I don't trust him to produce the same results McDonagh has the last two runs.

The team is going to be worse next year, that's a given. The realities of the cap are that we can't keep everyone. Cernak and Serg are 23 and 24, respectively; this time next year they'll be another year older with another full year in the league. They will be better. Hedman will be healthy. A top 4 of Hedman, Serg, Cernak and either Rutta/Foote/<some aging vet on a $2m contract> is better than most in the league. Our defense wouldn't be the major strength that it currently is, but still worthy of a contender.

Same deal if we lost Gourde instead of McDonagh. We would bring some guys up, and we would be worse as a team, but still very much a legitmate contender.

JBB is going to have to make some moves, and we're gonna lose some pieces. For the record, I think we're going to lose Coleman, Johnson and Palat to free agency/trade/x draft, in order to make it under the cap. But it could just as well be McDonagh/Johnson/Palat or Coleman/Johnson/Gourde.

Very likely to be some combination of three of: Coleman, Killorn, Palat, McDonagh, Gourde, Johnson, with Johnson by far the most likely to be included. And it's tough to make it work if it's the 3 cheapest of those 6 (Coleman, Killorn, Johnson), so that one's not likely. Now if McDonagh goes then we'll probably want to spend $1.5m - $2.5m on a serviceable D free agent, so will probably go with higher priced other guys (Palat).

In any case, McDonagh and Gourde simply aren't irreplaceable. They're in the mix here.

 

[Coopers Gum]

I think Gourde is easier to replace instead of McD. I’ll say it again, forward is a position of organizational strength. Defense is most certainly not. McD I think has proven himself to need to stay. I get there’s a cap crunch, but you can’t let a player of his caliber go.

 

[Rschmitz]

McDonagh is borderline irreplaceable if we want to be considered a top 5 defensive team, Gourde's stats can be replaced but it's difficult to find skilled players who will also put 100% effort in every night. Those kind of players have an attitude that's infectious and can drag an entire team across the finish line. Pre-Gourde there were many days that the entire team just fell asleep, but I don't see that much anymore.


If I had to pick, I'd let Gourde go though.

 

[JTBF81]

I think Tampa will come to a deal with Seattle to have them take Johnson, with some combination of '22 1st, Joseph, Palat, etc. as a sweetener. However, if a deal can't be reached, imo they need to protect Gourde. I've heard many say that they wouldn't even take McD if he's left exposed, due to the age vs cap hit situation. I agree it's a risk to leave him unprotected, but it really is a balance between short term vs long term cap management.

If McD is taken, yes, the defense is weakened considerably. However, moving him, Johnson, and Palat allows Brisebois to very likely keep all of the 3rd line here, sign a relatively cheap 3LD around 1.5, and either re-sign Savard or, if he's not viewed by management as a future piece, another RD in the 3-4 million range(depending on exact figures of other contracts). The offense would need one top 6 replacement for Palat(move Colton up, try ABB again, or maybe another prospect), and one on the 4th line(Raddysh, Katchouk,Stephen's, Smith etc-2 if Colton takes a top 6 role I suppose).

If McD is kept and they lose Gourde and Johnson, they likely keep Goodrow, but then would need to decide if re-signing Coleman is worth trading one of Palat or Killorn as well. In this scenario, Tampa could keep a strong 3rd line of Goodrow-Colton-Coleman together, while still needing one top 6 sub for either Palat or Killorn, as well as 1-2 new guys on the 4th line with Maroon(likely 2 of Raddysh, Stephen's, Katchouk, Joseph and Smith). The defense would need Foote to be able to handle 3rd pairing minutes full time, or of not, rotate time with Schenn and Thomas.

In any case it will be interesting to see how Brisebois navigates this, but in order to have a 22 player roster to start next season, it seems likely that in addition to Johnson(and whatever it may take to move him), some combination of McD/Palat, Gourde/Palat, or Gourde/Coleman is gone. I believe Killorn will be kept, because he has the extra year and the 850k less makes a sizable difference in being able to keep other players in almost any roster I've built. If they trade Palat for value this off season and then Killorn next, they should be able to make the cap work until hopefully it moves up again the following year.

 

[HaNotsri]

As an outsider: you should 100% protect the big 4 d.

I wouldn't make a trade unless it's for cap management, loss aversion makes you do dumb things.

 

[User9992]

Should Tampa go with 4 D - 4 F - 1 G protection or with 3 D - 7 F - 1 G protection lines?

 

[User9992]

Should Tampa not protect Stamkos in order to go under the cap?

 

[HoseEmDown]

Should Tampa not protect Stamkos in order to go under the cap?

I would love to leave Stamkos exposed but I don't think BriseBois has the stones to ask him to waive.

 

[User9992]

I would love to leave Stamkos exposed but I don't think BriseBois has the stones to ask him to waive.

Would you protect ...
1) 3 Defencemen, 7 Forwards, 1 Goalie
or
2) 4 Defencemen, 4 Forwards & 1 Goalie?

 

[garmonbozia]

Would you protect ...
1) 3 Defencemen, 7 Forwards, 1 Goalie
or
2) 4 Defencemen, 4 Forwards & 1 Goalie?

If #1, then Hedman, Sergachev, Cernak plus Stamkos, Point, Kucherov, Cirelli, Gourde, and two of Palat, Killorn, or Colton plus Vasilevski

If #2 then Hedman, Sergachev, Cernak, and McDonough, plus Stamkos, Kucherov, Point and either Cirelli or Gourde plus Vasilevski

I think we go #1 if we make a deal with Francis or otherwise think he'll pass on McDonough. We go #2 if there is no fair deal to be made.

 

[Lightning1995]

Should Tampa not protect Stamkos in order to go under the cap?

NMC, he has to be protected

 

[User9992]

NMC, he has to be protected

I didn't know about that. Which forwards you would rather keep with Kuch, Stamkos, Point & Cirelly?
Gourde, Palat, Killorn or Tyler Johnson?

 

[Lightning1995]

I didn't know about that. Which forwards you would rather keep with Kuch, Stamkos, Point & Cirelly?
Gourde, Palat, Killorn or Tyler Johnson?

Kuch, Stammer and Point are either obvious or required. Probably Cirelli is #4 due to his age, but you can make an argument for Guorde too.

During the regular season I thought we may go 7-3-1 and leave McDonagh exposed, protecting Heddy, Cernek and Serge. But McDonagh just too important during the playoffs.

 

[HoseEmDown]

Would you protect ...
1) 3 Defencemen, 7 Forwards, 1 Goalie
or
2) 4 Defencemen, 4 Forwards & 1 Goalie?

1) Hedman, Cernak, Sergachev, Kucherov, Point, Stamkos, Cirelli, Killorn, Palat, Gourde, Vasilevskiy

2) Hedman, Cernak, Sergachev, McDonagh, Kucherov, Point, Stamkos, Cirelli, Vasilevskiy

I would prefer 2 if I could get Stamkos to waive and swap him for Killorn. My dislike for Stamkos is well known so I wouldn't be mad if they took him. He's pretty much become a one dimensional shooter and that 8.5 can be used better elsewhere. But they ain't asking and he ain't waiving. Trade Seattle Palat to take Johnson.

If they think that Seattle won't take McDonagh then go option 1 and trade Palat pre ED and put Colton in that spot. Let them pick between Joseph, Barre-Boulet, Foote or Stephens. Use the Palat assets to trade Johnson somewhere.

The best hope for the ED is that Seattle wants Johnson so we can even trade him to them. See if that want Palat for taking Johnson. Try to use Barre-Boulet, Joseph or Stephens. If none of that works then you go to the 1st round pick or Foote.

 

[User9992]

1) Hedman, Cernak, Sergachev, Kucherov, Point, Stamkos, Cirelli, Killorn, Palat, Gourde, Vasilevskiy

2) Hedman, Cernak, Sergachev, McDonagh, Kucherov, Point, Stamkos, Cirelli, Vasilevskiy

I would prefer 2 if I could get Stamkos to waive and swap him for Killorn. My dislike for Stamkos is well known so I wouldn't be mad if they took him. He's pretty much become a one dimensional shooter and that 8.5 can be used better elsewhere. But they ain't asking and he ain't waiving. Trade Seattle Palat to take Johnson.

If they think that Seattle won't take McDonagh then go option 1 and trade Palat pre ED and put Colton in that spot. Let them pick between Joseph, Barre-Boulet, Foote or Stephens. Use the Palat assets to trade Johnson somewhere.

The best hope for the ED is that Seattle wants Johnson so we can even trade him to them. See if that want Palat for taking Johnson. Try to use Barre-Boulet, Joseph or Stephens. If none of that works then you go to the 1st round pick or Foote.

I am afraid Seattle aren't dumb enough to want Johnson. He is not the same as he was 5-6 years ago.

 

[Shoresy Snipes]

Why aren't we talking about if we make some trades for picks/prospects BEFORE the Seattle draft. Thus making it easier to protect who's left, knowing we already got something in return.
Can't remember who the trade was before the Vegas draft, but pretty sure that's what we did to be able to protect Drouin (iirc)

 

[HoseEmDown]

Why aren't we talking about if we make some trades for picks/prospects BEFORE the Seattle draft. Thus making it easier to protect who's left, knowing we already got something in return.
Can't remember who the trade was before the Vegas draft, but pretty sure that's what we did to be able to protect Drouin (iirc)

We have too many players we want to protect. So we would need to make several trades to where the only option left is Johnson. If we did that then we'd have a shit roster because we just traded all our depth for picks/prospects. The only pre ED trade I can see is a Palat or Killorn for futures and using those futures to sway Seattle into taking Johnson.

 

[The Gongshow]

in a perfect world we keep Killorn and Gourde and Seattle takes or we trade Johnson and Palat.

That said, how much cap do we need to clear? Just Kuch's 9.5? Would be nice to have a little bit to resign Schenn and Goodrow.

 

[BoltzManConstant]

in a perfect world we keep Killorn and Gourde and Seattle takes or we trade Johnson and Palat.

That said, how much cap do we need to clear? Just Kuch's 9.5? Would be nice to have a little bit to resign Schenn and Goodrow.

We can make it work losing Johnson and Palat while retaining Killorn, Gourde and McDonagh. In that scenario, we'd likely keep Goodrow by giving him Coleman's current $1.8m contract, which of course means losing Coleman to free agency and replacing him with a league-minimum guy.

Losing Johnson and Palat means we need to add two guys to our reg season roster. They get a combined $10.3m, and the replacement would be Kuch and his $9.5m and someone on a minimum contract (e.g. ABB or Stephens).

We can also fiddle around with what Rutta, McElhinney, and Schenn are getting (this year they got $1.3m, $1.3m, and $0.8m, respectively) -- either with what they re-sign for, or what we sign their replacements for. If we can squeeze out a few hundred thousand in savings, we'll have enough space for one more guy on a minimum contract on our regular roster, which would be a big help. Y'know, something that the "cap circumvention" crowd fails to notice (and bitch about) is how masterfully JBB massaged the Covid rules this year. We only had a 21-man roster most of the time, which he was able to make work because the season was so short and because of the taxi squad. Would really be tough to do it in a normal season, so having cap for 22 would give a lot of breathing room.

This all means no Savard, of course.

 

[The Gongshow]

We can make it work losing Johnson and Palat while retaining Killorn, Gourde and McDonagh. In that scenario, we'd likely keep Goodrow by giving him Coleman's current $1.8m contract, which of course means losing Coleman to free agency and replacing him with a league-minimum guy.

Losing Johnson and Palat means we need to add two guys to our reg season roster. They get a combined $10.3m, and the replacement would be Kuch and his $9.5m and someone on a minimum contract (e.g. ABB or Stephens).

We can also fiddle around with what Rutta, McElhinney, and Schenn are getting (this year they got $1.3m, $1.3m, and $0.8m, respectively) -- either with what they re-sign for, or what we sign their replacements for. If we can squeeze out a few hundred thousand in savings, we'll have enough space for one more guy on a minimum contract on our regular roster, which would be a big help. Y'know, something that the "cap circumvention" crowd fails to notice (and bitch about) is how masterfully JBB massaged the Covid rules this year. We only had a 21-man roster most of the time, which he was able to make work because the season was so short and because of the taxi squad. Would really be tough to do it in a normal season, so having cap for 22 would give a lot of breathing room.

This all means no Savard, of course.

If I was JBB I'd be trying my damndest to keep Gourde and resign Goodrow, throw Colton on that line and it'll still be fantastic and really help this team.

 

[JTBF81]

If they lose Johnson, Palat, Coleman and Savard to trade/expansion/free agency, the following could be close to how tbe team looks to start next seaaon:

ABB-Point-Kucherov
Killorn-Cirelli-Stamkos
Colton-Gourde-Goodrow
Maroon-Stephens-Joseph
Raddysh/Katchouk/Smith
Depth takes a hit here, and Tampa will need to figure out the best new addition to the top 6. Perhaps Colton is better suited up there and one of the top Crunch guys gets the then open 3rd/4th line spot.

Hedman-Rutta
McDonagh-Cernak
Sergachev-Foote
Schenn/Thomas/Claesson

If Foote can handle the 3RD role next season, great. If not, hopefully a combination of Schenn and Thomas can take some of the pressure off I guess. Claesson could be more min cost depth for tbe left side as well. Of course, if Hedman has to start the year on ltir then many things change as to what the team could do in terms of keeping both F's and dmen.

Vasilevskiy
Stalock/Hutchinson
I've listed these two names as the backup because Tampa will need a backup G making close to min in order to make things work. Either of the above candidates fit the bill for one year until either Alnefelt or Miftakhov are ready, and shouldn't cost much to acquire. Alternatively, Tampa could go with Martin for a similar cost, but getting a more NHL proven backup might be optimal.

 

[Rschmitz]

Palat still has a full NTC at the time of the expansion draft, he would need to waive in a trade.

 

[BoltzManConstant]

If they lose Johnson, Palat, Coleman and Savard to trade/expansion/free agency, the following could be close to how tbe team looks to start next seaaon:

ABB-Point-Kucherov
Killorn-Cirelli-Stamkos
Colton-Gourde-Goodrow
Maroon-Stephens-Joseph
Raddysh/Katchouk/Smith
Depth takes a hit here, and Tampa will need to figure out the best new addition to the top 6. Perhaps Colton is better suited up there and one of the top Crunch guys gets the then open 3rd/4th line spot.

Hedman-Rutta
McDonagh-Cernak
Sergachev-Foote
Schenn/Thomas/Claesson

If Foote can handle the 3RD role next season, great. If not, hopefully a combination of Schenn and Thomas can take some of the pressure off I guess. Claesson could be more min cost depth for tbe left side as well. Of course, if Hedman has to start the year on ltir then many things change as to what the team could do in terms of keeping both F's and dmen.

Vasilevskiy
Stalock/Hutchinson
I've listed these two names as the backup because Tampa will need a backup G making close to min in order to make things work. Either of the above candidates fit the bill for one year until either Alnefelt or Miftakhov are ready, and shouldn't cost much to acquire. Alternatively, Tampa could go with Martin for a similar cost, but getting a more NHL proven backup might be optimal.

Looks like you've got 22 guys (13 F, 7 D, 2G); I don't think we can fit that many under the cap if we re-sign Goodrow. By my numbers, we'd have to get him for about $1.1m or less to pull that off, and I just think he'll cost more than that. So to do this, we probably have to run with 21. Or save some money by re-signing Coleman but trading away Killorn. But I think our roster will look something like this, and this team is still a contender (just not a heavy favorite like this year's).

 

[Major4Boarding]

OK. I'm not purposely trying to be a dick. I'm needing some help from you guys wrapping my head around AB-B on the top line

 

[BoltzManConstant]

OK. I'm not purposely trying to be a dick. I'm needing some help from you guys wrapping my head around AB-B on the top line

It's his best fit. If he fits anywhere it's a pure scoring line, not any of the others. And frankly, any NHL-level forward should be able to succeed on a line with Point and Kuch; think the situation that turned Namestnikov into Rangers trade bait (but better because it's Point-Kuch not Stammer-Kuch).

I can also see moving Stamkos up to the first line and trying ABB on the second, or trying Joseph on the first line but not sure where ABB goes then. None of these options are as good as what have now, of course, but that ship has sailed and you've gotta make do somehow.

Moving McDonagh but keeping Palat would pretty much solve all the forward concerns, at the cost of creating them on defense.