2021 Season Predictions

[2Pair]

I am not without hope for this team, but I think that this year will be a write off in terms of results.

This is about the 5th year in a row that you have written off as a year to "see what we have"

 

[Dickie Dunn]

5th place but Kaprizov is as good as we hope and they will battle for 4th down to the wire.

 

[57special]

@Lapa that sounds like my wish list

 

[DeagleJenkins]

I think we get third in the division. 30 regulation wins and our top six is pleasantly surprising.

 

[AKL]

I think we get third in the division. 30 regulation wins and our top six is pleasantly surprising.

I have my doubts about whether 30 regulation wins would be enough to beat out any of St. Louis, Colorado or Vegas.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

I have my doubts about whether 30 regulation wins would be enough to beat out any of St. Louis, Colorado or Vegas.

I’m betting on teams playing safe for the overtime point often enough that 30 regulation wins out of 56 games is plenty.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Are we sure St. Louis doesn’t take a bit of a tumble? AP gone, no Tank, and Binnington wasn’t exactly great last year.

 

[AKL]

I’m betting on teams playing safe for the overtime point often enough that 30 regulation wins out of 56 games is plenty.

But every time there's a three point game, that lessens the impact of your 2 points. So if teams are going to be playing for three point games more often, then there are going to be more points needed to place in the top four of the division. And assuming each teams number of OTL's normalizes over the course of 56 games (most teams in the West had 7, 8 or 9 OTL's last season), you're still going to need more regulation wins than those three teams.

Just looking at the point percentage of last season, 30 wins and 5 OTL's (the equivalent pace as last season) means a point% of .580, which would be behind all of Vegas, Colorado and St. Louis. in the cases of St. Louis and Colorado, it's quite significantly so.

So I'm not trying to sit here and say my opinion is fact and yours is wrong, you could very well be right. But all three would need to regress (again, in the case of St. Louis and Colorado, quite significantly) from last years play in order for us to pass them. And my opinion here is that they don't.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

Are we sure St. Louis doesn’t take a bit of a tumble? AP gone, no Tank, and Binnington wasn’t exactly great last year.

They are the team I think we can beat out to take third in the division

But every time there's a three point game, that lessens the impact of your 2 points. So if teams are going to be playing for three point games more often, then there are going to be more points needed to place in the top four of the division. And assuming each teams number of OTL's normalizes over the course of 56 games (most teams in the West had 7, 8 or 9 OTL's last season), you're still going to need more regulation wins than those three teams.

Just looking at the point percentage of last season, 30 wins and 5 OTL's (the equivalent pace as last season) means a point% of .580, which would be behind all of Vegas, Colorado and St. Louis. in the cases of St. Louis and Colorado, it's quite significantly so.

So I'm not trying to sit here and say my opinion is fact and yours is wrong, you could very well be right. But all three would need to regress (again, in the case of St. Louis and Colorado, quite significantly) from last years play in order for us to pass them. And my opinion here is that they don't.

You have a good point I just bet on 30 as it was over half our games. Didn’t put too much statistical thinking into it really.

 

[AKL]

Are we sure St. Louis doesn’t take a bit of a tumble? AP gone, no Tank, and Binnington wasn’t exactly great last year.

AP gone is probably going to hurt a bit, but they didn't have Tarasenko last season, and they add Hoffman this year, who has scored at a 35 goal pace the last two seasons. If Binnington stays the same, they're still in roughly the same boat in that regard, if he rebounds, it probably offsets AP leaving. My money is on St. Louis regressing a little, but not enough to drop them behind us. St. Louis was the second best team in the league last year without Tarasenko and a mediocre Binnington.

Of course, the caveat to my whole opinion and argument is that we don't significantly improve, which could or could not be the case, depending on how well the new additions hit the ground running.

 

[2Pair]

But every time there's a three point game, that lessens the impact of your 2 points. So if teams are going to be playing for three point games more often, then there are going to be more points needed to place in the top four of the division. And assuming each teams number of OTL's normalizes over the course of 56 games (most teams in the West had 7, 8 or 9 OTL's last season), you're still going to need more regulation wins than those three teams.

Just looking at the point percentage of last season, 30 wins and 5 OTL's (the equivalent pace as last season) means a point% of .580, which would be behind all of Vegas, Colorado and St. Louis. in the cases of St. Louis and Colorado, it's quite significantly so.

So I'm not trying to sit here and say my opinion is fact and yours is wrong, you could very well be right. But all three would need to regress (again, in the case of St. Louis and Colorado, quite significantly) from last years play in order for us to pass them. And my opinion here is that they don't.

30 wins and 5 OTL shakes out to a 95 point pace for a normal season. I'm no math genius but I have a hard time believing that 3 teams would be able to be better than that when all the games would be played within an team division.

 

[AKL]

30 wins and 5 OTL shakes out to a 95 point pace for a normal season. I'm no math genius but I have a hard time believing that 3 teams would be able to be better than that when all the games would be played within an team division.

I would think that depends entirely on how bad California and Arizona are. It also depends on whether we can split series with the top 3 teams, or whether we're only winning by beating up the (presumed) bottom four. Also depends on where the aforementioned three point games are happening.

 

[ThatGuy22]

Are we sure St. Louis doesn’t take a bit of a tumble? AP gone, no Tank, and Binnington wasn’t exactly great last year.

Tumble from third to 4th is possible. I don't think they tumble far enough for the other 4 to over take them.

 

[TaLoN]

At 55 percent, the Wild are basically a playoff coin-flip, it’s just the fact that they’re more likely than not to make the playoffs. They’re projected to be the 18th best team in the league and have higher playoff odds than three teams above them. The Rangers, the team directly below them with an almost identical expected win percentage, has a playoff probability 22 percentage points lower than the Wild.

The Wild are a very interesting team, one that shouldn’t have too much trouble making the playoffs next season. With the depth that they have, plus their elite defence, there is a fair bit to like here. No more Dubnyk is a big plus.

It’s not enough to be an above-average team league-wide, but this year they don’t have to be. Minnesota only needs to be above average in its division which shouldn’t be much of a challenge. The Wild will likely get pummelled by the Colorado, St. Louis, Vegas trifecta, but there’s very little worthy competition behind them. The playoffs are rightfully the expectation here as a result and anything less would be a huge disappointment.

 

[Glennsoe]

Zuccarello will get 28-31 points this season..

 

[mazmin]

Eriksson-Ek will take a step offensively playing with some actual talent born in his own decade.

 

[Aurinko]

Eriksson-Ek will take a step offensively playing with some actual talent born in his own decade.

He's already proven to be a very smart and reliable... but has someone really pushed him forward offensively and given him freedom to concentrate on production?

I think there is a possibility of seeing not only offense, but some serious overall performance jump from him. (Especially if he doesn't play the shutdown role. I don't think wearing two hats is optimal.)

 

[DeagleJenkins]

He's already proven to be a very smart and reliable... but has someone really pushed him forward offensively and given him freedom to concentrate on production?

I think there is a possibility of seeing not only offense, but some serious overall performance jump from him. (Especially if he doesn't play the shutdown role. I don't think wearing two hats is optimal.)

I have been an Ek fan for some time and I agree if given a top six role and let Bonino take over the shutdown role that Ek could really produce

 

[Aurinko]

I have been an Ek fan for some time and I agree if given a top six role and let Bonino take over the shutdown role that Ek could really produce

I would like to see Ek locked to a longer contract. Current 1,5M is ridiculously high value and it's hard to see how his value won't increase. Contract value would skyrocket if he was to succeed offensively in a top role.

 

[Webster]

Russo is not a fan of Ek, says he didn't do anything when he played 2C last season and doesn't score much. I agree with him, Ek works well on the 3rd line though.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

Russo is not a fan of Ek, says he didn't do anything when he played 2C last season and doesn't score much. I agree with him, Ek works well on the 3rd line though.

I’m not the biggest fan of Russo so that’s ok if he dislikes him. If he is not played in a shutdown role he can produce.

 

[2Pair]

I’m not the biggest fan of Russo so that’s ok if he dislikes him. If he is not played in a shutdown role he can produce.

How do you figure that?

 

[DeagleJenkins]

How do you figure that?

im not gonna get into this debate with you again. you dislike ek and dont think he has any top 6 upside which is fine. my opinion differs completely as i see more in him than you do.

 

[57special]

I like JEE, but haven't seen much evidence of offensive skill. He has a decent shot that he seldom uses, and his passing and puck handling skills are mediocre for a top 6 C. Can't remember anything of note he has ever done on the PP.

He's still young, and there is hope, but it's hard to tell a guy to change his game in midstream after being groomed to be a defensive shutdown C.

 

[Wasted Talent]

I like JEE, but haven't seen much evidence of offensive skill. He has a decent shot that he seldom uses, and his passing and puck handling skills are mediocre for a top 6 C. Can't remember anything of note he has ever done on the PP.

He's still young, and there is hope, but it's hard to tell a guy to change his game in midstream after being groomed to be a defensive shutdown C.

That makes sense because Ek has barely had any PP time. He has had less PP minutes in 210 games than Galchenyuk had in 14 games or Rask in 66 games.