2021 Roster Thread XVII - Targeting "Someone Else"

[mja]

I believe it’s a fair question do hockey fans overvalue the analytics they have currently or are 30 GMs dumb around the league? Can’t say both!

You don't have to be a analytics nerd to realize that paying your divisional rival to make your team worse and theirs better is idiotic. I'm good with dealing Ghost in a hockey trade that makes sense. I'm not good with jettisoning him just to shake up the core, and then paying my divisional rival to help me do it while they reap the benefits of his solid play. That's plain stupid.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

You don't have to be a analytics nerd to realize that paying your divisional rival to make your team worse and theirs better is idiotic. I'm good with dealing Ghost in a hockey trade that makes sense. I'm not good with jettisoning him just to shake up the core, and then paying my divisional rival to help me do it while they reap the benefits of his solid play. That's plain stupid.

To add to this, most NHL GMs are incredibly stupid.

 

[Prongo]

You don't have to be a analytics nerd to realize that paying your divisional rival to make your team worse and theirs better is idiotic. I'm good with dealing Ghost in a hockey trade that makes sense. I'm not good with jettisoning him just to shake up the core, and then paying my divisional rival to help me do it while they reap the benefits of his solid play. That's plain stupid.

Sorry I should have expanded on the question more. I was more talking about having to add to Ghost for a team to trade for him. We have heard this numerous times now. Not as much about who we are trading him to.

 

[Striiker]

It shouldn't take an interest in analytics to realize the indisputable fact that Ghost has value.

The problem is dinosaurs can't comprehend that anything other than big strong grinders have value on D, so their brains short-circuit when they see a small guy playing it. Lots of GMs fit into this category, some GMs likely value him but don't have room on the roster/cap.

The suggestion that we'd have to add to him to have the privilege of making our team worse and the other team better is incomprehensible. Especially after the year he just had. But we have Fletcher as GM, who bleeds value like a stuck pig, so you never know.

 

[mja]

Sorry I should have expanded on the question more. I was more talking about having to add to Ghost for a team to trade for him. We have heard this numerous times now. Not as much about who we are trading him to.

Then I happily keep Ghost. He's generally been one of the best 3 defenseman on the roster throughout his entire career despite being dicked around like crazy. Why are we paying assets to make our team WORSE? It's difficult to imagine a more idiotic move.

I think it's all moot anyhow; if I'm Seattle, I gladly scoop up Ghost in the ED.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

In addition to Jones (& Soderstrom), Friedman mentions Dumba.

Dumba wouldn’t surprise me as a backup option if the Jones price is too steep or if he’s not interested in an extension.

Dumba’s positives — RH, physical, fast, can log heavy minutes. Negatives — he used to be a pretty big risk taker and make some bad decisions. Haven’t seen him regularly enough lately to know if he’s simplified his game sufficiently. I’d imagine Fletcher would have a good read on that.

 

[TCTC]

In addition to Jones (& Soderstrom), Friedman mentions Dumba.

Dumba wouldn’t surprise me as a backup option if the Jones price is too steep or if he’s not interested in an extension.

Dumba’s positives — RH, physical, fast, can log heavy minutes. Negatives — he used to be a pretty big risk taker and make some bad decisions. Haven’t seen him regularly enough lately to know if he’s simplified his game sufficiently. I’d imagine Fletcher would have a good read on that.

I've mentioned Dumba before, but that's a move that would probably have to happen before the ED. The Wild can't protect him and Seattle will probably pick him.

 

[ajgoal]

Here's another thought to consider, if you think GMs aren't idiots:

If you know of a player you like, that another team desperately wants to be rid of, why trade fair value for him? The rumor's been floating around for a good part of the season now that the Flyers may be willing to add a sweetener in order to get a team to take Gostisbehere. At that point, if you're calling on Ghost, why call it good just on getting the player? Wouldn't you want to get the sweetener as well?

 

[Striiker]

Then I happily keep Ghost. He's generally been one of the best 3 defenseman on the roster throughout his entire career despite being dicked around like crazy. Why are we paying assets to make our team WORSE? It's difficult to imagine a more idiotic move.

I think it's all moot anyhow; if I'm Seattle, I gladly scoop up Ghost in the ED.

And if you're Ghost you sprint out that door because your prison sentence is finally over.

I'm sure he wants to get away from this staff more than even the biggest anti-Ghost idiot wants him gone.

 

[Magua]

I can't imagine why Fletcher would want Dumba in particular. It's a mystery. He had a very good season, let's get that out of the way. But he's very inconsistent season-to-season.

And for all the talk of adding defense, there's no doubt Dumba leans heavily offensive (most of his ice time comes with Brodin). If they acquire a top pair RD, I do think that player should be excellent offensively, but Dumba's best offensive quality is his shot. He's not particularly good on the PP, but at his contract and usage, he'll end up with PP time. He's pretty average as a transition defenseman, and the Flyers make that component very difficult. He's....fine? Sometimes good. It's just not easily decipherable what he is as a player or what he will be season-to-season.

Dumba also needs to be moved before expansion, so something would have to give. Cherry on top: he has a 2-year contract.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

I can't imagine why Fletcher would want Dumba in particular. It's a mystery. He had a very good season, let's get that out of the way. But he's very inconsistent season-to-season.

And for all the talk of adding defense, there's no doubt Dumba leans heavily offensive (most of his ice time comes with Brodin). If they acquire a top pair RD, I do think that player should be excellent offensively, but Dumba's best offensive quality is his shot. He's not particularly good on the PP, but at his contract and usage, he'll end up with PP time. He's pretty average as a transition defenseman, and the Flyers make that component very difficult. He's....fine? Sometimes good. It's just not easily decipherable what he is as a player or what he will be season-to-season.

Dumba also needs to be moved before expansion, so something would have to give. Cherry on top: he has a 2-year contract.

He wants Dumba so that he can tell him to wear #55 again and that will be the blouse Fletcher wears to games but he won’t understand why people are laughing at him.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

I've mentioned Dumba before, but that's a move that would probably have to happen before the ED. The Wild can't protect him and Seattle will probably pick him.

You are correct. The ED is still a month away, & I think Dumba is probably plan B for a first-pair RD depending on the info they receive about Jones. If, hypothetically speaking, they trade for Dumba, it could be a 3-way-trade involving Myers or Sanheim.

 

[Curufinwe]

This would be gross.

16. The Buffalo News’ Lance Lysowski reported that New Jersey had interest in Rasmus Ristolainen. I’d heard similar. I’ve also wondered if the Devils would consider Shayne Gostisbehere, with a sweetener included, but Hamilton makes sense there, too.

 

[Henry Miller]

I think any realistic top 4 dmen that the Flyers can get will come with a blemish as most defenseman do. They gotta pick the right one and hope the team becomes “the whole is greater than the sum of its parts”

 

[baudib1]

Paying a divisional team to make them better would be peak Flyers incompetence. I don't think it would be possible to make it any more clear that the team's management is its biggest rival.



Just a slower Holmgrenning.

To be fair we all know that Homer would absolutely be all-in on Hamilton and Eichel.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I believe it’s a fair question do hockey fans overvalue the analytics they have currently or are 30 GMs dumb around the league? Can’t say both!

All teams except one have in-house teams making models with more data than the public. Every NHL team has SIS database access, I believe. Possession metrics are basically low-hanging fruit at this point. It can be difficult to suss out when teams are making reasonable decisions that go against these and when they're dinosauring, but we do have other indicators like microstats.

We also have qualitative descriptions/evaluations. Saying a player is 6'5" is regurgitating info and wasting everyone's time. Saying he leverages that size well in defending his own blue line can point toward that player being a better fit for a system that allows him to do this more often.

The problem comes when you get the idiots who throw out all of it because it may not tell the story for everyone. It's completely fair to try to identify players who may be outliers. We see this with players like Jones where some are willing to go on the record with it. I can and have made arguments for why Jones is better than his public possession metrics the last couple of years. None of them involve embarrassing myself by using points of data like, "He plays 25 Minutes!"

But sports in general do an excellent job of mystifying what happens behind closed doors. Even in the NFL, a league worlds ahead of the NHL on every level, there are people both employed in and running front offices who have absolutely no business in those positions. That's how closed systems work.

 

[DancingPanther]

If I may add to the migraine discussion from the previous thread:



A lot of drugs are approved as migraine prevention, including treatments for high blood pressure, antiepileptics, and antidepressants. There is a pretty new class of drugs that inhibit something called calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) as part of the migraine cascade. Four such agents have been approved -- Emgality, Ajovy, Vyepti, and Aimovig -- and their efficacy is pretty good without serious side effects.
A separate class of CGRP inhibitors, called gepants, are on the verge of being approved. Another approved medication to prevent migraines is Botox. Not just for getting rid of wrinkles!

Botox is also excellent for killing people. Just a toothpick tip full of that stuff will do the trick!

 

[BernieParent]

Botox is also excellent for killing people. Just a toothpick tip full of that stuff will do the trick!

I don't see the potential harm in injecting a neurotoxin directly into my body that can also cause botulism.

 

[Curufinwe]

To be fair we all know that Homer would absolutely be all-in on Hamilton and Eichel.

He probably would have been stupid enough to trade for Subban in 2019.

 

[DancingPanther]

I don't see the potential harm in injecting a neurotoxin directly into my body that can also cause botulism.

What neurotoxins will Fletcher inject into our bodies this offseason? Matt Dumba? Andy Greene?

 

[BernieParent]

From all this talk about adding a spoonful of sugar to Gostisbehere, is there any talk of what the Devils would hypothetically offer in return? Or are we under the assumption that Fletcher just wants that delicious cap space?

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

From all this talk about adding a spoonful of sugar to Gostisbehere, is there any talk of what the Devils would hypothetically offer in return? Or are we under the assumption that Fletcher just wants that delicious cap space?

David Savard here we come

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

We may or may not be in on Hamilton or Jones, but I am going to take everything I read from the “insiders” with a grain of salt.

 

[landsbergfan]

We may or may not be in on Hamilton or Jones, but I am going to take everything I read from the “insiders” with a grain of salt.

why salt when you can use a sweetener?

 

[Beef Invictus]

All teams except one have in-house teams making models with more data than the public. Every NHL team has SIS database access, I believe. Possession metrics are basically low-hanging fruit at this point. It can be difficult to suss out when teams are making reasonable decisions that go against these and when they're dinosauring, but we do have other indicators like microstats.

We also have qualitative descriptions/evaluations. Saying a player is 6'5" is regurgitating info and wasting everyone's time. Saying he leverages that size well in defending his own blue line can point toward that player being a better fit for a system that allows him to do this more often.

The problem comes when you get the idiots who throw out all of it because it may not tell the story for everyone. It's completely fair to try to identify players who may be outliers. We see this with players like Jones where some are willing to go on the record with it. I can and have made arguments for why Jones is better than his public possession metrics the last couple of years. None of them involve embarrassing myself by using points of data like, "He plays 25 Minutes!"

But sports in general do an excellent job of mystifying what happens behind closed doors. Even in the NFL, a league worlds ahead of the NHL on every level, there are people both employed in and running front offices who have absolutely no business in those positions. That's how closed systems work.

There's also the question of whether GMs actually buy into their analytics, if they ignore them, or if they only listen to what confirms what they want.

Didnt Fletcher say our analytics department told him signing Stewart was a bad idea and he did it anyway?