2021 Roster Thread XVI - Where thoughts are both sweet and sour

[Beef Invictus]

I've been watching Jones since he was in Nashville. I've had doubts regarding his upside since then, too.

He is guilty of doing many of the things our dmen are slammed for routinely, so it's very funny to see him held up as the solution to those problems.

I'm quoting myself yes, to expound further.

I watched a lot of Nashville then; I loved their D corps, and I loved that we started focusing on the same thing in the draft at that time. You all may recall that part of what made the loss of Suter palatable for the Preds was that after his first two seasons, it was expected that Jones would grow to be his replacement and would become a clear 1D caliber player to restore balance. But he didn't do that. He plateaued, and even regressed overall until he was traded. I'm not seeing a substantially different player in Columbus either, outside of one good year. Your best case with him these days is that he breaks even. You need to get a lot better than "break even" for the contract he seeks and the price CBJ will ask.

Jones has actually been a bigger disappointment relative to early expectations and hopes than Provorov is. That's worrying.

 

[Beef Invictus]

And that’s what I mean by Ghost getting by on reputation. You’re acting like he’s the same Ghost skating-wise as he was his first couple years in the league. He’s not. He’s had knee, hip, & core injuries that have seriously impeded his skating. He’s slow, & his agility is not what it was. Hence his getting turnstiled/blown past on a number of occasions.

I'm really not acting like he's the same player. The simple fact is that the current iteration of Ghost is still a more agile skater than Jones, and he was a better neutral zone defender for sure even in our nightmare system. And this unsupported stretch hockey system that features pucks coming the other way against our defensive grain as they hustle to close massive gaps is a nightmare scenario to drop Jones into. I mean, there aren't really any dmen anywhere who would thrive, but it would just put his flaws on full display rather than doing anything to mitigate them.


Edit: To clarify, if the salary cap did not exist I would welcome Jones. Go snag him in FA, bring him in. Heck yes.

But the cap does exist, and the cap hit he wants to command alone is Problem. That we'd need to spend to get him to begin with in a trade is Compounding Problem. He'd need to be better than he is to make that an efficient situation and cover what is lost.

 

[renberg]

While I agree that analytics probably underestimates Jones' value, they're not that off when you're looking at a large sample.
As far as size and speed, just let Myers develop, he's bigger and faster and younger and cheaper.

Jones is an "early arrival," these players tend to flatline earlier, because by now Jones isn't going to learn much more on the job, like OEL and other hot shot players, at some point "they are what they are," that is, if they aren't climbing a learning curve they probably never will.
He has 8 years as a starter, 580 games plus 37 PO games, it's unlikely there's any upside left.

Yes, he's a solid top 4 D-man, like Provorov, a minutes eater but not an elite player.
He's good offensively, but not a top ES scorer, a second tier PP QB, a solid PK guy.
He'd definitely help the Flyers, but not if you have to give two prime assets then sign him to a 8 year deal at a big cap hit starting at 28 years old.
He's not Hedman and never will be, that's the kind of player you put together an overpay to obtain.
The difference is Hedman did climb a learning curve and steadily improved until he was an elite player.

You see this and many of us do as well. Jones is hardly better, if at all, than what the Flyers currently have on the roster with Provorov, Sanheim, a healthy Myers, York, possibly Zamula and even Ghost. That the defense did not play up to expectations last season is true. Maybe because of injuries, Covid, bad luck or possibly misuse and poor coaching. The last two need to be considered adequately before shipping out young talent in order to obtain a player that is no better than what is presently here. I smell a rat trying to cover his tail for failure by throwing the players under the bus. Not that AV would or has ever done that./s

 

[Prongo]

Man Buffalo fans are going to be extremely disappointed with the return when they think Byfield/Turcott/8th overall is a fair deal lol. That’s a shit ton of value that they won’t be getting close to.

 

[Prongo]

Friedman mentioned on his podcast while he was pumping gas (lol) that Hamilton is going to hit free agency.

 

[CanadianFlyer88]

Favorite coach =/= best coach

Same as favorite teammate =/= best teammate

Jake said best coach, though. "Probably the best coach I ever had" is the actual quote.

Around 28-30 minutes into the podcast.

And it very well may be true. Best coach for an individual doesn't equate to best coach for a team overall. Jake certainly became a better player through the Berube years; how much of that growth can be attributed to Berube's influence would be a subjective exercise.

 

[renberg]

I have been down on Ghost in the past and do not see him as a top four guy on this team in the future (Provorov, Sanheim, Myers, York and Zamula probably ahead of him). However he does have value. The fact that he was not picked up when he was on waivers was totally due to salary and cap space for other teams not his talent. That meme needs to be put to rest.

 

[FlyerNutter]

Jake said best coach, though. "Probably the best coach I ever had" is the actual quote.

Around 28-30 minutes into the podcast.

And it very well may be true. Best coach for an individual doesn't equate to best coach for a team overall. Jake certainly became a better player through the Berube years; how much of that growth can be attributed to Berube's influence would be a subjective exercise.

Ahhh look at you creeping into it haha!

Some funny stories, worth a listen on longer drives

 

[CanadianFlyer88]

Ahhh look at you creeping into it haha!

Some funny stories, worth a listen on longer drives

I listened to it after seeing your summary. Wish it was longer; seemed like Jake was just getting rolling.

It was easy enough to remember where in the interview he talked about Hitch and Chief.

 

[FlyerNutter]

I listened to it after seeing your summary. Wish it was longer; seemed like Jake was just getting rolling.

It was easy enough to remember where in the interview he talked about Hitch and Chief.

That story about the guy getting wasted in the helmet while they were in Czech made me think it was Giroux but can’t say.

 

[deadhead]

He isn't a marginal top 4 dman though. He's a clear top 4 dman. More like a marginal top/middle pair dman. That kind of player is getting more than 4 million.

Which of those 4 million dollar FAs outplayed Ghost?

But he's not. He doesn't bring anything special to the table anymore.

He scores at the same rate as Hagg.
He's not physical in the D-zone, he's not that fast (forces the defense to back up), he's not a dominant PP QB anymore.
He's competent at the things he used to excel at, but he lacks the high IQ to be an efficient play driver, makes too many mistakes to allow him to free lance. He's good at skating through the neutral zone, but struggles to make things happen in the O-zone.

I dismissed last season b/c of injuries, but he didn't stand out this season. Sanheim was our best D-man, warts and all.
Ghost peaked in 2017-18 and hasn't approached that level of play since. And even then, he was MIA in the playoffs.

There's just no there there, that is, he's filler material, a role player, but not a guy you build a winning playoff team around.
For all of Myers' screw-ups last year, his upside >> Ghost.

 

[CanadianFlyer88]

That story about the guy getting wasted in the helmet while they were in Czech made me think it was Giroux but can’t say.

G has been known to party.

The only guy I know who stays away from the sauce is Provy, but he's not married. I wondered if it was Braun.

 

[Prongo]

Did y’all say the podcast name? Or whenever this is coming from so us slugs can listen?

 

[FlyerNutter]

If that bastard has me blocked then too bad

https://m.youtube.com/channel/UCgT4kZVwZ4j6EqFCDLQzjgw

Nasty Knuckles is the name.

 

[CanadianFlyer88]

Did y’all say the podcast name? Or whenever this is coming from so us slugs can listen?

Nasty Knuckles is the podcast name.

The interview is from January.

 

[Beef Invictus]

But he's not. He doesn't bring anything special to the table anymore.

He scores at the same rate as Hagg.
He's not physical in the D-zone, he's not that fast (forces the defense to back up), he's not a dominant PP QB anymore.
He's competent at the things he used to excel at, but he lacks the high IQ to be an efficient play driver, makes too many mistakes to allow him to free lance. He's good at skating through the neutral zone, but struggles to make things happen in the O-zone.

I dismissed last season b/c of injuries, but he didn't stand out this season. Sanheim was our best D-man, warts and all.
Ghost peaked in 2017-18 and hasn't approached that level of play since. And even then, he was MIA in the playoffs.

There's just no there there, that is, he's filler material, a role player, but not a guy you build a winning playoff team around.
For all of Myers' screw-ups last year, his upside >> Ghost.

But he is.

Where's that list of 4mil dmen who outplayed Ghost? I've been asking for this list for a few years now.

 

[Striiker]

Can someone explain the point in lying about something that the people you’re lying to already know is false?

 

[Lindberg]

He was. I recall concerns over the usage of Couturier and Schenn being cited as why he was let go

So it was quite the opposite, actually

I mean that's contradictory to what you're saying.

Vincent Lecavalier wants Craig Berube fired

Video: Berube defends how he's deployed Lecavalier | ProHockeyTalk | NBC Sports

 

[Lindberg]

Favorite coach =/= best coach

Same as favorite teammate =/= best teammate

I mean it's not a huge stretch to say that if you like your boss your performance on average should be better. There's definitely some merit on having clear and open communication.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I mean that's contradictory to what you're saying.

Vincent Lecavalier wants Craig Berube fired

Video: Berube defends how he's deployed Lecavalier | ProHockeyTalk | NBC Sports

Vinny was used as 2C over Couturier, who was obviously better. He was also given prime offensive zone opportunities despite being a trainwreck on offense. Schenn and Couturier were both better.

 

[Lindberg]

Vinny was used as 2C over Couturier, who was obviously better.

Where are you getting this from? If that was the case he wouldn't of been a healthy scratch. None of the years below did he have more ATOI than Couturier.

2013-14 Philadelphia Flyers Roster and Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com
2014-15 Philadelphia Flyers Roster and Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com
2015-16 Philadelphia Flyers Roster and Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

 

[deadhead]

But he is.

Where's that list of 4mil dmen who outplayed Ghost? I've been asking for this list for a few years now.

Chris Tanev ($4.5M) outplayed him by a wide margin, Brodie ($5.oM), Orlov ($5.1M), Klingberg ($4.25), Brodin ($4.17), Toews ($4.1), Edmundson ($3.5M), DeMelo ($3.0M)

 

[Beef Invictus]

Where are you getting this from? If that was the case he wouldn't of been a healthy scratch. None of the years below did he have more ATOI than Couturier.

2013-14 Philadelphia Flyers Roster and Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com
2014-15 Philadelphia Flyers Roster and Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com
2015-16 Philadelphia Flyers Roster and Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

Offensive usage. Couturier was used as a traditional shutdown center with Vinny being given prime offensive usage despite Couturier being clearly better.

Berube wasn't coach in 15/16

 

[Lindberg]

Offensive usage. Couturier was used as a traditional shutdown center with Vinny being given prime offensive usage despite Couturier being clearly better.

Berube wasn't coach in 15/16

I was slinging years out and I figured by 15/16 he wasn't HC anymore. So you're faulting Berube for the construction of a poor roster? The coach can only field what is on his roster, the GM has to do the rest. It's only logical to minimize the amount of negative impacts that VLC brought to the roster.

Like I said a better coach than what the results were, don't blame him for that abomination of a roster.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Chris Tanev ($4.5M) outplayed him by a wide margin, Brodie ($5.oM), Orlov ($5.1M), Klingberg ($4.25), Brodin ($4.17), Toews ($4.1), Edmundson ($3.5M), DeMelo ($3.0M)

Klingberg, like Ghost, signed as an RFA and would earn a lot more now on the open market. Tanev was dragged down on bad Vancouver teams, if he played like he does now in better circumstances then he'd be paid more. Orlov is paid more (I still think he generally outplays his contract, though). Brodie is paid more. Toews is one, but he also plays in vastly better circumstances. Edmundson I'm not sure I agree on, likewise on DeMelo.

Brodin was finishing an RFA deal, and for his performance will be getting paid 6 million from here out which I think is quite informative about what all their true value on the current FA market is, or should be.