2021 Offseason Thread | 2022 Roster Speculation

[David Castillo]

Would hate to lose Klinger as well, but if we did, Harley seems more in his mold than the mold of a shut down D, a la, Esa and Jamie O. Vatanen is too old to consider, even if he has been a serviceable 3rd pair guy now. The defense has been 3rd to 8th each of the last few years. Yes, a hockey deal might trade from strength, but I am skeptical a D first team is going to allow ESA to go. IF the cap goes up, hopefully, they can keep all 4 of them, and then the pressure would be to keep finding offense through the draft. Just think where we would be if we hadn't hit on JRob, Hintz, and Guri, and maybe Kivi in UFA.

That is kind of the point of the cap, making sure GM's can't just buy their way to a Cup. Most teams have roster holes of some size, and winners limit them or mask them, but I doubt any team gets rid of them altogether.

An offensive guy with a defensive guy doesn't make much difference if they have no interlinking skills. Does Lindell help Klingberg break out of the zone? Is he a good option when passing the puck out? Has he ever even made a clean outlet through the middle of the ice? Just because Lindell "stays back" while Klingberg "presses forward" doesn't mean they gave chemistry. It just means they have symmetry. Josi (speed out the zone) and Ellis (good slapshot, creative puck handler) have chemistry. Makar and Graves, understanding how to get pucks to the inner slot to make the most of Makar's gifts (elite goal differential) have chemistry. Slavin and Hamilton, with their complimentary vision to dish passes into the slot, have chemistry. Lindell and Klingberg are just two guys that have played a lot together. Klingberg was good without Lindell when he had Goligoski. He'll be fine in the future if they think the future is Harley. They don't need the perfect combination of 'offense with defense'. They just need players with tangible skills that can be combined for better efficiency. Christ, didn't Nill watch Power Rangers growing up?

 

[WhoahNow]

I wonder if there is someway in which you can get a Heiskanen-Klingberg pairing and not have the 2nd pair be reduced to nothing. If I remember correctly those two had pretty insane metrics together, but the rest of the d pairs couldn't make up for loading up those two together.

UFA to play next to Lindell, or can you trade Lindell for someone and play that person next to Oleksiak? I don't imagine Lindell-Oleksiak is a viable enough pairing on its own, but you never know. If Heiskanen take a bridge deal till cap rises, Oleksiak walks, Dobby is gone, could you afford a Heiskanen-Hamilton pair?

I think you could totally run the same d next year (aka re-sign Olekisak/Vatanen and keep the pairings the same), but with a healthy forward group and make the playoffs. Having a full year of Kivi-Seguin-Rads would have made the difference to make the playoffs instead of having a combo meal of L'Esperance-Kero-Gardner-Pysyk 4th line night in and night out (not to mention the 3rd line being a useless FCC line).

Benn has been so much better as a C than as a winger for me, I'd love to see the C depth next year as:
1-Hintz w/Jrob & Pavs (no point breaking them up, although Pavs probably slows down next year)
2-Seguin (hopefully he can bounce back after injury, but is insulated by Hintz being a stud)
3-Benn (not expected to score like a top dog anymore, just is way overpaid)
4-Faksa (not like he's going to suddenly start lighting it up, but will be nice to see him not anchored with Cogs and Comeau)
5-Gardner (I wouldn't hate it if he was 4c say if Faksa was traded, but I dont want him 4c and Faksa 3C)

Rads/Guri as the mid 6 rw
Kivi, Dickinson probably bottom 6 lw
Hopefully someone can be brought in to add a scoring punch to the mid 6 lw
Dellandrea hopefully bulks up and can be 4rw
Damiani, Mascherin, Kawaguchi, L'Esperance, Caamano fill in as needed

Having 3 lines you can roll offensively and Faksa can be the defensive line matchup if you want that.

 

[catters078]

Kiviranta-Benn-Gurianov would be an intriguing 3rd line

 

[BfantZ]

Kiviranta-Benn-Gurianov would be an intriguing 3rd line

I would like to see them pick up a solid left or center off the market to fill that spot either with guryanov and benn or with seguin and radulov .

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

An offensive guy with a defensive guy doesn't make much difference if they have no interlinking skills. Does Lindell help Klingberg break out of the zone? Is he a good option when passing the puck out? Has he ever even made a clean outlet through the middle of the ice? Just because Lindell "stays back" while Klingberg "presses forward" doesn't mean they gave chemistry. It just means they have symmetry. Josi (speed out the zone) and Ellis (good slapshot, creative puck handler) have chemistry. Makar and Graves, understanding how to get pucks to the inner slot to make the most of Makar's gifts (elite goal differential) have chemistry. Slavin and Hamilton, with their complimentary vision to dish passes into the slot, have chemistry. Lindell and Klingberg are just two guys that have played a lot together. Klingberg was good without Lindell when he had Goligoski. He'll be fine in the future if they think the future is Harley. They don't need the perfect combination of 'offense with defense'. They just need players with tangible skills that can be combined for better efficiency. Christ, didn't Nill watch Power Rangers growing up?

I don't understand your line of thinking here, and so many coaches have typically paired an offensively inclined player with a defensively inclined one, that I think the idea has some value. Why do you need two great passing D on a pair? Obviously, there are times when it would help, but its not like the goal is to pass D to D, its to pass to forwards. One D is enough to do that. And, while you dimiss Esa's passing, he is and has certainly repeatedly done the nice "first pass" to get things moving up ice. I can even recall some long stretch passes that resulted in goals or scoring chances. He's not a total dip back there.

I get Hamilton would be an upgrade, although perhaps not the best use of the cap. And, there is a tendency to forget chemistry. Sometimes having too many players who want the puck works against teamwork. Yes, it gives the other team two defenders to cover closely, but in the end, only one of them can bring the puck up at a time.

As to the next post about pairing Klinger and Miro (Klingo or Heiskankling?) I think it's possible. Neither is terrible defensively, do have the speed to back track, and have offensive instincts that would rival Makar and Graves. JO and Esa wouldn't be terrible, as JO has some up ice puck moving skills. If you think back to the day, Hitch paired two big guys and two faster guys, a la Hatcher-Matty and Zubie-Sydor, and it seemed to work okay. It would probably especially work on home ice, when you would presumably start Zubie-Syd in offensive zone faceoffs, and Hatcher-Matty in the defensive zone, where possible.

And yes, both Klinger and Miro would be fine with other players, because they are that good. But to trade Esa "just because" and hope all is fine is not really a team building strategy. Again, you keep what's good and replace to the best you can what doesn't work, rather than change out for the sake of change.

 

[BfantZ]

I don't understand your line of thinking here, and so many coaches have typically paired an offensively inclined player with a defensively inclined one, that I think the idea has some value. Why do you need two great passing D on a pair? Obviously, there are times when it would help, but its not like the goal is to pass D to D, its to pass to forwards. One D is enough to do that. And, while you dimiss Esa's passing, he is and has certainly repeatedly done the nice "first pass" to get things moving up ice. I can even recall some long stretch passes that resulted in goals or scoring chances. He's not a total dip back there.

I get Hamilton would be an upgrade, although perhaps not the best use of the cap. And, there is a tendency to forget chemistry. Sometimes having too many players who want the puck works against teamwork. Yes, it gives the other team two defenders to cover closely, but in the end, only one of them can bring the puck up at a time.

As to the next post about pairing Klinger and Miro (Klingo or Heiskankling?) I think it's possible. Neither is terrible defensively, do have the speed to back track, and have offensive instincts that would rival Makar and Graves. JO and Esa wouldn't be terrible, as JO has some up ice puck moving skills. If you think back to the day, Hitch paired two big guys and two faster guys, a la Hatcher-Matty and Zubie-Sydor, and it seemed to work okay. It would probably especially work on home ice, when you would presumably start Zubie-Syd in offensive zone faceoffs, and Hatcher-Matty in the defensive zone, where possible.

And yes, both Klinger and Miro would be fine with other players, because they are that good. But to trade Esa "just because" and hope all is fine is not really a team building strategy. Again, you keep what's good and replace to the best you can what doesn't work, rather than change out for the sake of change.

Klinger and miro are both too good to have on the same pair IMO . You only need one main puck mover on each of your top 2 pairs . Having either jkingberg or miro in the ice as much of the game as possible is important . You don’t often see teams use there top 2 d on the same pair .

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

An offensive guy with a defensive guy doesn't make much difference if they have no interlinking skills. Does Lindell help Klingberg break out of the zone? Is he a good option when passing the puck out? Has he ever even made a clean outlet through the middle of the ice? Just because Lindell "stays back" while Klingberg "presses forward" doesn't mean they gave chemistry. It just means they have symmetry. Josi (speed out the zone) and Ellis (good slapshot, creative puck handler) have chemistry. Makar and Graves, understanding how to get pucks to the inner slot to make the most of Makar's gifts (elite goal differential) have chemistry. Slavin and Hamilton, with their complimentary vision to dish passes into the slot, have chemistry. Lindell and Klingberg are just two guys that have played a lot together. Klingberg was good without Lindell when he had Goligoski. He'll be fine in the future if they think the future is Harley. They don't need the perfect combination of 'offense with defense'. They just need players with tangible skills that can be combined for better efficiency. Christ, didn't Nill watch Power Rangers growing up?

BTW, I quickly checked the advanced stats of the three pairs you mentioned, and yes, all three (although Josi-Ellis plays together about half as much as the others, including Klinger/Esa) are statistically better in goals per 60 for, and similar in goals against per 60. Not sure how much those stats are affected by playing with better offensive teams, but they are better top pairs, at least offensively speaking, which isn't always the best way to measure a defense pairing, for obvious reasons, LOL>

Miro and JO are slightly better than JK and EL, so technically, they are our top pair, although below the three mentioned statistically. What is interesting is our W-L in one goal games. We are built as a defense first team, able to win tight games, but the results haven't really lived up to the ideal.

 

[Zapp]

2021 - Räty
2022 - Wright
2023 - Michkov


ez rebuild lets go

 

[Captain Awesome]

The Athletic did an 'NHL stormtrooper award'. Essentially they used expected goals to measure who the worst goalscorers in the league are. I felt slightly validated seeing Cogliano at #9 on the list. Going back to the 2018-19 season, he has an xG of 24Goals, but has only scored 14. The top 10 list went by raw underperformance, so he has the 9th highest negative differential in the league. What is really impressive is, even though he gets so few quality chances, he can still do it by raw differential. I think if they went by some percentage, I wonder if he would have ended up even higher.

They also weeded out 4th liners and measured guys who take the most inefficient shots, generally from further out than you would expect them to score from because they aren't Alex Ovechkin. Dickinson and Cogliano both made it on that list. Sekeraj also ranked as the worst shooter from the blueline, getting it through to the net less than any other player in the NHL.

 

[Sports2]

I don't know how you can look at that and bring them both back. I mean it will happen and I didn't need the stats to tell me what I already know but its bullshit. If Cogs gets more than vet minimum on a one year deal i will commit ritual suicide. Which again I know will happen I guess I need to get my affairs in order.

 

[M88K]

With Iafallo no longer an option I'll settle for Coleman and Wennberg

Robertson-Seguin-Radulov
Coleman-Hintz-Pavelski
Benn-Wennberg-Gurianov
Kiviranta-Faksa- x

 

[LT]

With Iafallo no longer an option I'll settle for Coleman and Wennberg

Robertson-Seguin-Radulov
Coleman-Hintz-Pavelski
Benn-Wennberg-Gurianov
Kiviranta-Faksa- x

with what money

 

[Kcb12345]

With Iafallo no longer an option I'll settle for Coleman and Wennberg

Robertson-Seguin-Radulov
Coleman-Hintz-Pavelski
Benn-Wennberg-Gurianov
Kiviranta-Faksa- x

Think we all know that the FCC line isn't being split up, even if it means re-signing both of them. Especially now that they can get them on even cheaper deals! Steal in Jim Nill's eyes for "what they bring"

 

[LT]

I’m fine with Comeau coming back but Cogliano needs to retire. He might very well have the worst hands/shot in the NHL.

 

[serp]

I’m fine with Comeau coming back but Cogliano needs to retire. He might very well have the worst hands/shot in the NHL.

With his reputation around the league Cogliano is getting another contract from someone. Play doesn't matter .

 

[LT]

With his reputation around the league Cogliano is getting another contract from someone. Play doesn't matter .

Yep. Same shit as Patrick Eaves.

 

[serp]

Yep. Same shit as Patrick Eaves.

Not really the same. Eaves was good in his last years in the league and especially for the Stars . He just got injured alot. The one year he did not get injured he scored 30 goals . That lead to him getting a big deal with the Ducks and well injured again.

 

[M88K]

with what money

The 20mil we have once we shed khudobin

 

[serp]

The 20mil we have once we shed khudobin

I think we have to take money back for him.

 

[M88K]

I think we have to take money back for him.

Just let me have my dream of roster improvements before Nill re-signs
the scrubs

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

Just let me have my dream of roster improvements before Nill re-signs
the scrubs

He can resign them, or replace them with different scrubs. Either way, since we can't replay reality, we'll never know which route would have turned out better, unless we win the Cup next year, when most of us would concede the roster was pretty good. (Maybe not you, Cogs!) BTW, if Cogs isn't resigned, are you eligible for a name change again? I suggest "No scrubs 2021-3" as a more generic name for your feelings about the roster, LOL.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

Just for fun, I took a look at the advanced stats for forward lines and expected goals against.

Three combinations that include Jamie Benn are our top D lines, with expected GA in the 1.09-1,34 range, and Pavs is in those combos the most, with Kivi, Dickie and Guri in once each. However, none has a ton of minutes.

FCC is 1.61 GA or ranked 37th in the league. However, FCC is ranked 16th in total minutes together, and of the 15 lines above them, has the lowest XGA of any, with only one other line close at 1.67.

Short version, many teams have consistent D lines, and the arguments that FCC is pure crap is out of bounds, statistically.

Second, however, is that statistically, it looks like a Benn-Pavs-X line would make a lot of sense as a third line next year. If it added Guri it would have some scoring punch, too. Next year's FCC could really be a 4th line, no matter how constituted (I believe Nill will bring back one but not both of Comeau and Cogs, keeping an eye on the future as well as current results.

Bad news is, that would leave us needing to fill 2-3 top line forward positions. If possible, that could be awesome, though. They will probably just assume 2 of those 3 are Seguin and Rads, and things will be fine.

 

[FirstRowUpperDeck]

As to % of expected goals in the game, we have

FCC line - 53% just north of equal scoring when on ice
Dickenson-Benn- Guri leads at 61% of the goals when on ice
Robertson-Hintz-Pavs- 58% of goals.......

If they went back to Robertson-Hintz-Gurianov - 64.5% of goals.......

Benn-Faksa-Gurianov is the lowest productivity line at 37% and the only one under 50%.

 

[catters078]

What is our cap outlook going into off season? Whatsbthe bestvlinknto view?

How many players are signed vs cap space left.

 

[Captain Awesome]

What is our cap outlook going into off season? Whatsbthe bestvlinknto view?

How many players are signed vs cap space left.

Here is capfriendly: Dallas Stars - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

The one thing I'm not completely sure of is if there will be performance bonus overages like we had this year with Miro. I tried looking it up once or twice but never quite nailed down if LTIR could be used to relieve bonuses. Miro didn't have a stellar year, and it looks like Robertson barely has any bonus eligibility anyway, so might be a non factor for the cap next year.