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- Apr 29, 2015
- 6,125
- 2,990
That is ridiculous . I’d be pissed if I was a caps fan . Vrana is literally better than mantha .So the Caps traded Vrana, Panik, a 1st, and a 2nd for Mantha lol
I'm guessing they were way off on contract talks with Vrana, thats the only thing that makes sense and even then. You get rid of Panik, don't have to re-sign Vrana, get Mantha at 5.7 for the next three years, but also lose a first and a second? Seems like a great deal for DetSo the Caps traded Vrana, Panik, a 1st, and a 2nd for Mantha lol
Does anyone know how it works for teams like Detroit or Columbus who retain salary? Are they on the hook for actual salary, or just the cap hit? An article I read said Savard's 25% that Detroit retained is worth $250k. I could understand if the pick was higher, but we're talking about a 4th round pick. a quarter mil for a pick that has a 99% chance of not even being an impact player seems kind of insane to me in terms of real cash. The cap space is of no consequence since it won't be used anyway, but in terms of real money it seems horribly wasteful. And also a lesson on why billionaires shouldn't exist and why capitalism sucks.
I'm not exactly sure how you'd value a draft pick in dollars, maybe the value added if the player becomes an impact player on an ELC multiplied by the probability of that happening vs the cost of a similar player as a UFA. In that case, it would be millions of dollars. but at a quick glance of all drafts between 2014-2017 (I just picked the most recent years that seemed reasonable, 2017 may be cutting it too close), the most notable 4th rounders are Devon Teows, Victor Arvidsson, Victor Mete, Drake Batherson, just looking at top 6 F/ top 4 D type players since those are the ones that are hardest to acquire. You'd be thrilled to have any of them for $250k plus their ELC salary, but that is 4 in 120+ picks. Lottery ticket is exactly how I would describe it. It's better odds than my initial guess of 1% for an impact player, but 3% probably makes the gamble a loss in value, IMO.
Looks like there are 44 active players with more then 100 career games who have been drafted in the 4th. Ekholm, Gaudreau, Holtby, Slavin, Yandle, Hjalmarson, Brodie, Martinez, Savard, Marcus Foligno, Anderson, Grubauer, Vatanen, Pageau, Smith, Cizikas. There are some good careers in there.
I think your sample might be a bit too recent, 4th round successes are more likely to be late bloomers.