Post-Game Talk: 2021 NHL Playoffs - Round 3: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. New York Islanders

[DFC]

But expectations can be, and are, a fluid thing. If we had not gotten 86 (or 91, for tha matter) back in time for the Florida series, I would've said Florida had the better roster, would've been expected to win, and while I would've been disappointed to be eliminated that early, I wouldn't have been hugely surprised.

That was the potential at the end of the regular season. The reality in terms of how things have played out since is that we have a final four this season awfully reminiscent of last seasons, which means there's no Avalanche (the only team I considered more talented than ours) and no Capitals (a traditionally awful matchup for us) and the other three teams left standing besides ours? Our roster is better than all of them. If Colorado was still in the field, I would still have rated them favorites, and if we'd lost to them, then so it happens. I wouldn't have been surprised. But once (I feel, anyway) we have the best remaining roster of the teams still playing? My expectations become Cup-or-bust. Can you imagine if the Habs win the other series? Granted, the Habs don't look like a bad team by any means and their regular season record means little in the context of how their roster looks now, but if you'd talked about potential SCF opponents, you would've talked about the Avs, Knights, or maybe somebody from the East before you would've talked about the Habs, you know? Point being, we'd like our chances. It would be a similar situation with facing the Stars last year. And if we end up losing one round short of being heavy Cup favorites (for the second time in four years, at that)? Rubbing alcohol on a fresh wound. It would sting like a motherf*cker.

We obviously would like our chances, and should still like them right now. But I just can't believe "Two Cups or bust!" is an actual thing.

 

[The Gongshow]

McD was one of those "It won't look bad when the cap rises" deals. And now the cap isn't going to rise, so luckily it wasn't as bad as it could have been. (How crazy good does Hedman's deal look right now?)

With Stamkos... His whole game has been great in the regular season lately. This is the best we've ever seen him make plays and create space for his teammates, while playing a pretty responsible game at both ends and not taking needless risks to create offense.

But we did just make the playoffs without Kucherov, while kind of in coast mode all year. So I don't think that's an issue. And we won a cup without Stamkos. Sadly, I don't think it really matters how good anybody on this team is in the regular season anymore. If you're not living up to expectations in the playoffs, you're not living up to expectations. And I can even give a guy the benefit of the doubt for a bad post-season or two (Killorn). But Stamkos has just never, ever had a big post-season. And that's a problem when he's making 8.5.

The flat cap screwed everyone, its unfortunate for sure. Considering what Doughty makes I'm beyond thrilled with Hedman's cap, no one should be complaining about that.

At least Stammer is only 8.5 and not the rumoured 10 some teams were gonna offer

But you're right. We are pretty well off that we can afford to lose a big name and still easily make the payoffs, that said other teams are getting better too and the Atlantic will be tough and the Metro takes both the wild cards usually. We don't want another 2017 missing by one freakin' point due to injuries.

We know the team can win without Stamkos. but damn would it be nice if he could help us win it, even just once. Injured, perhaps, but I also think his game doesn't go well against the Islanders. He looked good in rounds 1 and 2 but now he's been invisible for this grind out, defensive schemed games.

 

[DrMartinVanNostrand]

While the Florida round was big, I just think we're so close to another Cup Final that it would be a damn shame if we let it slip away. 2 wins away! Thats why last nights loss has me pretty bummed still. Its hard as hell to win a cup, let alone get there. You need a lot to go right. We're so close!

And that's another component to this as well. While we probably still have quite a few years of solid contention left with this core no matter the outcome this year, the overall fact of the matter is that we don't know when we're ever going to have a team as good as this one has been since 2014 again once this run is over. Cup droughts, hell, just playoff droughts even, can develop from nowhere and all of a sudden it's been a long time since you have a relevant team. Red Wings fans went from 25 years in a row making the playoffs to being uncompetitive for five straight seasons ever since. The Sabres were good in the late '00s, now look at them. We can obviously hope and expect - with the help of a good ownership situation like ours - that such problems won't befall us in the future, but the overall fact remains that there's a very good chance the Lightning teams we watch right now are the best Lightning teams we'll see in our lives. So it's only natural that we want as much as we can get from these guys. Unapologetically greedy, I will admit to immediately. Once these guys are gone, who knows when we'll be Cup-quality again? The Cups we do win before then are what sustain us, and the more of those, the more sustained we'll be.

 

[DFC]

The flat cap screwed everyone, its unfortunate for sure. Considering what Doughty makes I'm beyond thrilled with Hedman's cap, no one should be complaining about that.

At least Stammer is only 8.5 and not the rumoured 10 some teams were gonna offer

But you're right. We are pretty well off that we can afford to lose a big name and still easily make the payoffs, that said other teams are getting better too and the Atlantic will be tough and the Metro takes both the wild cards usually. We don't want another 2017 missing by one freakin' point due to injuries.

We know the team can win without Stamkos. but damn would it be nice if he could help us win it, even just once. Injured, perhaps, but I also think his game doesn't go well against the Islanders. He looked good in rounds 1 and 2 but now he's been invisible for this grind out, defensive schemed games.

I mean, I'm not going to say we should trade Stamkos or anything, but how much better does he really make us in the playoffs? Would we be better off with the cap relief?

 

[The Gongshow]

And that's another component to this as well. While we probably still have quite a few years of solid contention left with this core no matter the outcome this year, the overall fact of the matter is that we don't know when we're ever going to have a team as good as this one has been since 2014 again once this run is over. Cup droughts, hell, just playoff droughts even, can develop from nowhere and all of a sudden it's been a long time since you have a relevant team. Red Wings fans went from 25 years in a row making the playoffs to being uncompetitive for five straight seasons ever since. The Sabres were good in the late '00s, now look at them. We can obviously hope and expect - with the help of a good ownership situation like ours - that such problems won't befall us in the future, but the overall fact remains that there's a very good chance the Lightning teams we watch right now are the best Lightning teams we'll see in our lives. So it's only natural that we want as much as we can get from these guys. Unapologetically greedy, I will admit to immediately. Once these guys are gone, who knows when we'll be Cup-quality again? The Cups we do win before then are what sustain us, and the more of those, the more sustained we'll be.

Exactly. This is one of/ if not the best team we've iced in our history. Injuries happen, the flat cap is another thing that will affect us. We might not be the over the top favourites again the next five years with other teams getting better or taking bigger steps in the playoffs.

Gotta get what we can during our core's prime years. The league is competitive and anything can happen in the playoffs.
Gotta take advantage of what we get, like right now.

 

[Antiramie]

If we don't win the Cup this year we will be 1 for 5 in seasons we made it to at least the conference finals, which includes:

- Losing SCF with a 2-1 lead

- Losing ECF with a 3-2 lead

- Losing ECF with a 3-2 lead

- Swept 1st round after record-setting regular season

- Losing ECF/SCF with the highest playoff payroll in hockey

So we'd be on the wrong side of probability with a lot of ugly/meme-worthy exits.

I'm not saying not repeating this year is the end all, but I think any criticism saying we were underachievers if we never win another Cup with this core is more than fair, especially considering Cooper's coaching style and our players' effort-level have been raked over the coals during that span for their "we'll make adjustments/dig for another gear when we're forced to" reactive habits.

 

[Antiramie]

Would we be better off with the cap relief?

Absolutely.

 

[The Gongshow]

I mean, I'm not going to say we should trade Stamkos or anything, but how much better does he really make us in the playoffs? Would we be better off with the cap relief?

I 100% agree. We could have 2 solid depth players with that 8.5, the NMC prevents that. He's a luxury sure when he's on his game and I can understand the frustration when we need offence and he (along with others) aren't producing.

I love the guy on this team, but I also think of the other options and possibilities if he goes.

I also kinda don't wanna have to buy a new jersey to wear as well

 

[The Gongshow]

If we don't win the Cup this year we will be 1 for 5 in seasons we made it to at least the conference finals, which includes:

- Losing SCF with a 2-1 lead

- Losing ECF with a 3-2 lead

- Losing ECF with a 3-2 lead

- Swept 1st round after record-setting regular season

- Losing ECF/SCF with the highest playoff payroll in hockey

So we'd be on the wrong side of probability with a lot of ugly/embarrassing exits.

I'm not saying not repeating this year is the end all, but I think any criticism saying we were underachievers if we never win another Cup with this core is more than fair.

This is why the pessimist in my comes out

It's true that this team has shown a tendency to disappear at big moments and we all know how good this team can be when they actually try/show up/care, sense the frustration we all get.

That said 2020 we learned how to overcome some of this adversity, and pretty well steamrolled to the cup. We're up against a tough team right now. This group knows how important this is, but do they show up is the question.

 

[OurlordAndSaviorKuch]

If we lose Monday that’s it this series is probably over, Monday is must win.

 

[The Gongshow]

If we lose Monday that’s it this series is probably over, Monday is must win.

I agre, must win.

If we win Monday I like our chances and would even be fine losing game 6 and taking 7. If we lose 5 I can't see us winning 6 and 7 funnily enough.

 

[DFC]

I 100% agree. We could have 2 solid depth players with that 8.5, the NMC prevents that. He's a luxury sure when he's on his game and I can understand the frustration when we need offence and he (along with others) aren't producing.

I love the guy on this team, but I also think of the other options and possibilities if he goes.

I also kinda don't wanna have to buy a new jersey to wear as well

I'm gonna get impaled for this but... ... ...Toronto?

I don't know how it would work, and we probably wouldn't save money, but that's a place where he might waive.

 

[DrMartinVanNostrand]

We obviously would like our chances, and should still like them right now. But I just can't believe "Two Cups or bust!" is an actual thing.

Well, again, I probably wouldn't have said something that could be interpreted to that effect at the beginning of the season, but it's how things have played out to this point. In your opinion, are we the best team left in the playoffs (or the most talented team, anyway)? If we are, and we're only six wins away at this point - more than halfway there - then I would say we're at a point now where it would be a disappointment to not win it. For me, what we did last season is irrelevant in this equation. Last season is last season. It's over. It has zero impact on what's happening now. We'd probably be more desperate if we were in last year's shoes, I'll concede that much (I remember how I felt and remember a lot of the posts here at this time of the playoffs a year ago). But in the context of the 2021 playoffs, and the 2021 playoffs only, yeah, I'll risk saying that it's "Cup or bust" for me, at this point, with how everything's played out. I've already explained how other plausible scenarios could've played out which would've led me to a different conclusion and degree of acceptance so I won't waste anyone's time writing that again.

 

[Hoek]

I'm gonna get impaled for this but... ... ...Toronto?

I don't know how it would work, and we probably wouldn't save money, but that's a place where he might waive.

I mean he had his chance to go there already... but maybe since he's already won a cup he'd be more relaxed about it and willing. Toronto would be really dumb to get him, though.

 

[DFC]

Well, again, I probably wouldn't have said something that could be interpreted to that effect at the beginning of the season, but it's how things have played out to this point. In your opinion, are we the best team left in the playoffs (or the most talented team, anyway)? If we are, and we're only six wins away at this point - more than halfway there - then I would say we're at a point now where it would be a disappointment to not win it. For me, what we did last season is irrelevant in this equation. Last season is last season. It's over. It has zero impact on what's happening now. We'd probably be more desperate if we were in last year's shoes, I'll concede that much (I remember how I felt and remember a lot of the posts here at this time of the playoffs a year ago). But in the context of the 2021 playoffs, and the 2021 playoffs only, yeah, I'll risk saying that it's "Cup or bust" for me, at this point, with how everything's played out. I've already explained how other plausible scenarios could've played out which would've led me to a different conclusion and degree of acceptance so I won't waste anyone's time writing that again.

I'm thinking more like, looking back at it 5-10 years from now. I feel like we won't be looking at it as a failure, which wouldn't be the case if not for the previous year's cup. That said, at risk of jinxing things (somebody please come in with an anti-jinx for the bulls*** I'm about to say), but I think we're still a solid favorite. And I think NYI is the biggest threat of the remaining teams.

 

[Antiramie]

I mean, I know Stamkos has been a fixture on this team, but any chance JBB gives him an ultimatum about waiving his NMC or getting his minutes buried if he can find a possible trade partner?

For $8.5M, Stamkos ain't it anymore.

 

[DFC]

I mean he had his chance to go there already... but maybe since he's already won a cup he'd be more relaxed about it and willing. Toronto would be really dumb to get him, though.

I'm just thinking of the teams he was willing to meet with as potential destinations, since we need him to waive.

Leafs would only do it if Dubas actually is as stubborn as his critics say, because what they really need is players who can perform in the playoffs, and the whole reason we're even entertaining this is because Stamkos has proven, over and over, to not be that guy. And I don't see how he magically becomes that guy at 31.

 

[DrMartinVanNostrand]

I'm thinking more like, looking back at it 5-10 years from now. I feel like we won't be looking at it as a failure, which wouldn't be the case if not for the previous year's cup. That said, at risk of jinxing things (somebody please come in with an anti-jinx for the bulls*** I'm about to say), but I think we're still a solid favorite. And I think NYI is the biggest threat of the remaining teams.

Well, if fail to win the Cup this year but then win the Cup in 2022, then we can probably accept the results of 2021, haha. Blackhawks fans probably don't rue over 2014 too much because they have 2010, '13, and '15 to placate that. But Blackhawks fans, Penguins fans, even Kings fans can do that. They got multiple Cups. We haven't done that, at least not yet, and it hasn't been for lack of opportunities, either.

I remember saying during the 2019 first round disaster that I was reminded thinking about the '96 Red Wings, who similarly had an all-time regular season, but failed in the playoffs (albeit, much later on, and in what turned out to be the de facto SCF for that season). They won the Cup in '97 and again in '98 and wiped away the poor memories of '96 in doing so. I basically remember saying then that hopefully we'll end up with a similar trajectory to that. And here we are, only six wins away from doing that. I really kinda want those posts I made over two years ago to have ended up being exactly what ended up happening. Besides the obvious fan-related reasons for it, I'm generally not right about a whole lot of things, so I'd be happy to know I ended up being right about that.

 

[DrMartinVanNostrand]

I mean, I know Stamkos has been a fixture on this team, but any chance JBB gives him an ultimatum about waiving his NMC or getting his minutes buried if he can find a possible trade partner?

For $8.5M, Stamkos ain't it anymore.

I know this conversation is more in the context of Playoff Stamkos, which has been a problem for his entire career, but you would basically have to have that threat of burying minutes coming in the playoffs only, because when he does play in the regular season, he still puts up the justifiable numbers. 45 goals/98 points in 2018-'19. 29 goals/66 points in 58 games in 2019-'20. 17 goals/34 points in 38 games this year. You can't "bury" that guy in the regular season, it just doesn't work. So that would only end up amounting to an empty threat.

Let the record show that I fully agree that, absent his NMC, I would endorse having him available for a trade during the offseason. We won the Cup with him only playing 2:47 in the playoffs last year. We made it to Game 7 of the ECF without him previously. It's not a question of whether we're good enough without him come playoff time; it's literally been proven.

 

[DFC]

Well, if fail to win the Cup this year but then win the Cup in 2022, then we can probably accept the results of 2021, haha. Blackhawks fans probably don't rue over 2014 too much because they have 2010, '13, and '15 to placate that. But Blackhawks fans, Penguins fans, even Kings fans can do that. They got multiple Cups. We haven't done that, at least not yet, and it hasn't been for lack of opportunities, either.

I remember saying during the 2019 first round disaster that I was reminded thinking about the '96 Red Wings, who similarly had an all-time regular season, but failed in the playoffs (albeit, much later on, and in what turned out to be the de facto SCF for that season). They won the Cup in '97 and again in '98 and wiped away the poor memories of '96 in doing so. I basically remember saying then that hopefully we'll end up with a similar trajectory to that. And here we are, only six wins away from doing that. I really kinda want those posts I made over two years ago to have ended up being exactly what ended up happening. Besides the obvious fan-related reasons for it, I'm generally not right about a whole lot of things, so I'd be happy to know I ended up being right about that.

True, but that Wings team didn't have an easy road to either of those cups. They faced a ton of adversity and could easily have not won one of them. Growing up a wings fan, I LOVED that they won back to back, but I feel like, even if they hadn't, I wouldn't think of them as an underachieving team, because they contended every year and did get it done.

 

[Antiramie]

I know this conversation is more in the context of Playoff Stamkos, which has been a problem for his entire career, but you would basically have to have that threat of burying minutes coming in the playoffs only, because when he does play in the regular season, he still puts up the justifiable numbers. 45 goals/98 points in 2018-'19. 29 goals/66 points in 58 games in 2019-'20. 17 goals/34 points in 38 games this year. You can't "bury" that guy in the regular season, it just doesn't work. So that would only end up amounting to an empty threat.

Let the record show that I fully agree that, absent his NMC, I would endorse having him available for a trade during the offseason. We won the Cup with him only playing 2:47 in the playoffs last year. We made it to Game 7 of the ECF without him previously. It's not a question of whether we're good enough without him come playoff time; it's literally been proven.

I meant threatening to bury his minutes so that maybe he'll want to play elsewhere...not in the sense of how it will be a benefit/detriment in the regular season and playoffs. I don't think we're not going to be a playoff team with whatever we replace him with, but I definitely think getting two $3-4M players in place of him for the playoffs would likely be an upgrade.

ie I'm not worried about losing him for the regular season if it means we can trade him via playing hardball.

 

[Hoek]

I doubt they would play hardball with a captain and face of the franchise, though.

 

[Coopers Gum]

Yeah, hardball with Steven Stamkos sounds like OK Hockey. You don’t do that with a player like him. You ask him if he’d be willing to go, if he says no, deal with it. He’s done a lot for hockey in Tampa Bay.

 

[OurlordAndSaviorKuch]

Vink isn't going to hardball the face of the franchise. It would backfire with the players and probably a good chunk of the Fans.

The only way to do it is if it was a mutual move. Also, it makes me sick that this is actually a viable option. Stammer has done so much in this community.

 

[Hoek]

Remember the rumor was they had already asked if he'd be willing to waive for Vegas, so if that's truly the case it seems like communication is good enough to approach him again should they have another offer in mind.