Prospect Info: 2021 NHL Draft: The Home Stretch, Draft July 23-24

[jkutswings]

Mid to late might be a stretch, but I mostly agree with OO there. I think Beniers stock has risen pretty significantly from the 10-15 range to the 1-5 range.

Ultimately I think both Beniers and Johnson are kids that will need 2-3 years before they crack an NHL lineup, let alone make an impact. So I don't really have ONE player I want Detroit to take (or not take) - I'm the fascinated passenger who's waiting to see which skill set they think they can plant in the development garden for a few years and turn into some good stuff.

 

[Frk It]

Who exactly considered Beniers a mid-to-late first round pick coming into this season? I agree that Beniers (primarily) alone is responsible for his current draft stock, but he was always well regarded as a prospect while with the NDTP.

hockeyprospect.com had him at #13 and their 7th best forward in their preliminary ranking last summer. He got quite a boost from the WJC and his year at Michigan. If Bob's preliminary list came out sooner (Sept instead of Dec), I am guessing he would have been in the 10-15 range as opposed to where he ended up.

He wasn't really even in the discussion for who people considered options for us in this draft last summer, I remember telling people to keep an eye on him.

 

[Mister Ed]

I'm curious on where Lucius will be picked. Could be picked top 10, all the way to the 20s.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Oh I totally agree that Beniers' stock improved through his own merit. But Johnson has been viewed as a top 10 if not top 5 prospect in this draft for a long time. The claim that his production is a product of Beniers would be more persuasive if Johnson wasn't such a highly regarded prospect prior to his time at Michigan.

I try not to put much stock in last year's rankings and focus more on the performance of players during their draft year.

I think a lot of scouting agencies and hockey sites avoid walking back on their too-early-to-tell projections and even if a player doesn't merit a certain ranking they still hover within striking distance of their previous ranking. Chaz Lucius is a guy that I use as a prime example of this; early projections had him around #4(!!!) on some sites but I've seen nothing that shows he's better than a guy like Coronato, yet Lucius hovers as a borderline top 10 in many rankings.

I'd even argue that Lucius shouldn't be better than 25 in many rankings, but there's always that thought that he was once a top 10 guy so he could still be.

I also believe that this is in part why people still use Raty's too early projection as 1st overall as a reason to keep him in this year's 1st round despite playing worse than many of the guys he's ranked ahead of.

 

[golffuul]

This is why goalies drive people crazy.

You can't just take the best athlete and expect them to produce, as you might a forward. So much more of the game is decision making and between the ears for goalies.

So when you're drafting a 17/18 year old netminder, it's not a bad idea to get a solid read on the kind of kid they are. Their temperament and how they handle adversity. Their training and consistency with the rigors of a routine.

I've said many times Askarov has all the raw tools to make him an elite puck stopper, but that doesn't mean he'll end up the best overall of this new wave of great goalies. Wallstedt has that poise and calm to his game that elicits comparisons to Lundqvist, Swedish connection notwithstanding. His actual technique borrows a lot from the Lundqvist playbook, specifically where they take shots from the crease.

There are times scouts will overthink development and deem a prospect already fully baked at 18 with less room to grow. Usually this happens when all their metrics look NHL ready but they don't immediately slot into a roster position.

For us Wings fans, I think the most memorable example of this was being told Chychrun didn't have anymore ceiling. He was good now, but he's done baking. Meanwhile, Cholowski was just waiting to grow, become strong, and have so much potential. Fast forward to today and it's pretty clear maybe the kid who looked like an NHL player right away was the better prospect.

This is my round about way of saying if people think Wallstedt doesn't have as much potential left... Good. I don't see a single reason he can't be an NHL starter in a few short years. No need to drag out his development to age 27 wondering if he'll put it together ala Markstrom.

Yep Yep.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Who exactly considered Beniers a mid-to-late first round pick coming into this season? I agree that Beniers (primarily) alone is responsible for his current draft stock, but he was always well regarded as a prospect while with the NDTP.

Here's one article.

https://thehockeywriters.com/2021-nhl-draft-rankings-bells-early-top-21/#:~:text= 2021 NHL Entry Draft Rankings 1,Johnson, LW, Trail Smoke Eaters (BCHL) More

EDIT: And another.

Defencemen dominate Craig Button's early look at 2021 NHL draft class - TSN.ca

These are the too-early-to-tell rankings from their D-1 years.

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

I try not to put much stock in last year's rankings and focus more on the performance of players during their draft year.

I think a lot of scouting agencies and hockey sites avoid walking back on their too-early-to-tell projections and even if a player doesn't merit a certain ranking they still hover within striking distance of their previous ranking. Chaz Lucius is a guy that I use as a prime example of this; early projections had him around #4(!!!) on some sites but I've seen nothing that shows he's better than a guy like Coronato, yet Lucius hovers as a borderline top 10 in many rankings.

I'd even argue that Lucius shouldn't be better than 25 in many rankings, but there's always that thought that he was once a top 10 guy so he could still be.

I also believe that this is in part why people still use Raty's too early projection as 1st overall as a reason to keep him in this year's 1st round despite playing worse than many of the guys he's ranked ahead of.

Yeah, generally I definitely agree. The reason I followed up on FI's point was because I believe the fact that Johnson has consistently been viewed as a top 10 guy in this draft, since before his time at Michigan, weakens the argument that he's a beneficiary of Beniers. Personally I think this is just a case where two top 5 prospects are playing on the same line.

It seems you're low on Lucius, that's fair- he's a pretty polarizing prospect. I generally like him, I think his offensive tools are second to very few players in this draft and from everything I read and hear his off-ice work ethic is pretty unrivaled. Injuries and COVID have really limited how much of him we've been able to see, but his production post-injury was pretty incredible. I've missed some NTDP games this year but every time I did watch I was generally impressed with Lucius when he played, although I see the concerns about his athleticism.

Raty I agree, I think that's a different case to Lucius. Lucius has just battled a ton of injuries, whenever he's healthy he's produced. By this point the amount of time Raty has looked like a top 10 prospect is very much dwarfed by the amount of time he hasn't looked like a lottery selection. At this point I'm not very convinced his D-2 buzz was much more than a purple patch, and my understanding is that he was riding a pretty unsustainable shooting percentage throughout that period. I haven't seen enough since then to be especially interested in Raty even at #22.

 

[Killerjas]

Ultimately I think both Beniers and Johnson are kids that will need 2-3 years before they crack an NHL lineup, let alone make an impact. So I don't really have ONE player I want Detroit to take (or not take) - I'm the fascinated passenger who's waiting to see which skill set they think they can plant in the development garden for a few years and turn into some good stuff.

Beniers is probably the most NHL ready player this draft. Good chances that he enters the NHL in the 2022-2023 season.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Yeah, generally I definitely agree. The reason I followed up on FI's point was because I believe the fact that Johnson has consistently been viewed as a top 10 guy in this draft, since before his time at Michigan, weakens the argument that he's a beneficiary of Beniers. Personally I think this is just a case where two top 5 prospects are playing on the same line.

It seems you're low on Lucius, that's fair- he's a pretty polarizing prospect. I generally like him, I think his offensive tools are second to very few players in this draft and from everything I read and hear his off-ice work ethic is pretty unrivaled. Injuries and COVID have really limited how much of him we've been able to see, but his production post-injury was pretty incredible. I've missed some NTDP games this year but every time I did watch I was generally impressed with Lucius when he played, although I see the concerns about his athleticism.

Raty I agree, I think that's a different case to Lucius. Lucius has just battled a ton of injuries, whenever he's healthy he's produced. By this point the amount of time Raty has looked like a top 10 prospect is very much dwarfed by the amount of time he hasn't looked like a lottery selection. At this point I'm not very convinced his D-2 buzz was much more than a purple patch, and my understanding is that he was riding a pretty unsustainable shooting percentage throughout that period. I haven't seen enough since then to be especially interested in Raty even at #22.

I think Lucius's shot and goalscoring instincts are great. I can't speak to his off-ice work ethic but his on-ice work ethic and motor leave a lot to be desired. I've said it before but he's about as one way as a forward can be nowadays. His skating is also amongst the worst of any of the guys ranked in the top 20 of the draft if not THE worst. I'm also old enough to remember Mike Comrie at U of M and there are a lot of similarities to their styles as goalscoring one-way centers.

Lucius is the kind of player that makes me think of "bad team scorer" type of NHLer. Guys that are scoring leaders on perpetual crap teams but are never around when they're winning. Kind of like Mike Comrie (who I already listed), Mike Ribeiro, Ray Whitney (before his Carolina cup) Geoff Sanderson and guys like that.

 

[ricky0034]

so much stuff happening at the end of july looking at it

expansion draft the 21st
draft the 23rd-24th
free agency the 28th

that's a packed week

 

[Bench]

so much stuff happening at the end of july looking at it

expansion draft the 21st
draft the 23rd-24th
free agency the 28th

that's a packed week

Very much looking forward to it. We'll have a ton to talk about here. I think most of us have prospect fatigue at this point and are ready for the draft and to see what Yzerman does in regards to expansion.

 

[MBH]

Obviously a small sample size, but there are some interesting comments in there from the article by Pronman.

Almost every player you see some variance of opinions on, even the guys at the top. What I found interesting were the comments on Wallstedt. I thought they would be a bit more glowing than that. I am not as sure we see him go in the top 10.

A goalie who plays and starts is fine at 6th overall.
If that's the floor, that's absolutely fine.
If he's a quality starter who never becomes a star, that might keep his salary in check, so many be takes 7 percent of the cap instead of 12 percent of the cap.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Here's one article.

https://thehockeywriters.com/2021-nhl-draft-rankings-bells-early-top-21/#:~:text= 2021 NHL Entry Draft Rankings 1,Johnson, LW, Trail Smoke Eaters (BCHL) More

EDIT: And another.

Defencemen dominate Craig Button's early look at 2021 NHL draft class - TSN.ca

These are the too-early-to-tell rankings from their D-1 years.

I will give you Button. You can have THW and the other fanboy blogs though. I could be losing my mind about this one. I thought he did pretty good on that stacked NDTP with Hughes and Zegras. Perhaps I am thinking of someone else.

 

[MBH]

I don't hate the Turris comparison but I do think Johnson's skill is a little better. He's really good. He wouldn't be my pick at 6 but if I had to pick the guy we're going to regret passing on, it's Johnson.

I don't think they're the same.
I think the comparison is based on nothing but BCHL stats.
Turris was always more of a two-way/leadership-style C.
Johnson is more of a skill guy.
Johnson is more Kane than Toews - even if he's neither.

 

[MBH]

Very much looking forward to it. We'll have a ton to talk about here. I think most of us have prospect fatigue at this point and are ready for the draft and to see what Yzerman does in regards to expansion.

f***, HockeyProspect's Black Book isn't even out yet.
I just got FC's guide and will also get the Recruites guide.
Prospect fatigue has not set in yet for me.

 

[MBH]

I thought the comments on Beniers were also pretty underwhelming, I wonder if teams start to doubt his upside as the draft gets closer.

Edvinsson had a really big mix of opinions as well.

Seems like folks are all over the board with this draft class.

I don't think teams are changing their minds.
But I bet fans start trending one way or the other.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I don't think they're the same.
I think the comparison is based on nothing but BCHL stats.
Turris was always more of a two-way/leadership-style C.
Johnson is more of a skill guy.
Johnson is more Kane than Toews - even if he's neither.

Read their scouting reports and compare draft year to draft year. Turris was thought of a flashy skilled forward that needed to work on his defense. "Two Way" and "Kyle Turris" were not found together until much later in his career. Even then, Turris isn't great defensively.

They're more similar as prospects than people want to admit because we look at how Turris turned out.

 

[deca guard]

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Yeah, expansion draft is gonna be fun. I kinda like (in a silver lining sort of way) that the Wings have been so bad that they don't have to worry about actually surrendering anyone good to Vegas or Seattle. It's not like we're Florida who literally handed Vegas 2/3rds of a top line for free.

 

[Bench]

Yeah, expansion draft is gonna be fun. I kinda like (in a silver lining sort of way) that the Wings have been so bad that they don't have to worry about actually surrendering anyone good to Vegas or Seattle. It's not like we're Florida who literally handed Vegas 2/3rds of a top line for free.

It's like having your old beater vehicle rifled through by a thief at night.

Hey man, if you found anything good in there, you earned it.

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

I think Lucius's shot and goalscoring instincts are great. I can't speak to his off-ice work ethic but his on-ice work ethic and motor leave a lot to be desired. I've said it before but he's about as one way as a forward can be nowadays. His skating is also amongst the worst of any of the guys ranked in the top 20 of the draft if not THE worst. I'm also old enough to remember Mike Comrie at U of M and there are a lot of similarities to their styles as goalscoring one-way centers.

Lucius is the kind of player that makes me think of "bad team scorer" type of NHLer. Guys that are scoring leaders on perpetual crap teams but are never around when they're winning. Kind of like Mike Comrie (who I already listed), Mike Ribeiro, Ray Whitney (before his Carolina cup) Geoff Sanderson and guys like that.

Yeah I think that's all very fair. The skating in particular is a real concern, I'm sure teams looking at him will have to think critically about whether or not he can make big gains there, and examine what kind of player they're getting if he can't improve significantly.

At the same time, I was a bit turned off on Suzuki's skating back in '17 and I'm still not in love with the way he gets around the ice. Yet here he is playing top 6C in the Stanley Cup finals at 21. Now maybe Lucius' skating is significantly behind where Suzuki's was as a draft eligible, honestly I'd have to review tape to say. But as much as I value prospects' skating ability, I think we do see enough kids overcome that shortcoming where I'm not immediately going to write off a player because their skating is poor, especially when they have offensive tools as good as Lucius does.

I wouldn't take Lucius at #6 or anything, but I think he does enough well to justify his mid-first ranking.

Read their scouting reports and compare draft year to draft year. Turris was thought of a flashy skilled forward that needed to work on his defense. "Two Way" and "Kyle Turris" were not found together until much later in his career. Even then, Turris isn't great defensively.

They're more similar as prospects than people want to admit because we look at how Turris turned out.

I don't think anyone is reluctant to admit anything here, moreso there's simply no chance anyone has a vivid enough recollection of Kyle Turris' performance for the Burnaby Express during the Bush administration to compare him to Kent Johnson in any meaningful way. Even if we were to agree that they're very similar prospects, that's not really a meaningful statement on whether or not Kent Johnson is going to be a successful NHLer.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Yeah I think that's all very fair. The skating in particular is a real concern, I'm sure teams looking at him will have to think critically about whether or not he can make big gains there, and examine what kind of player they're getting if he can't improve significantly.

At the same time, I was a bit turned off on Suzuki's skating back in '17 and I'm still not in love with the way he gets around the ice. Yet here he is playing top 6C in the Stanley Cup finals at 21. Now maybe Lucius' skating is significantly behind where Suzuki's was as a draft eligible, honestly I'd have to review tape to say. But as much as I value prospects' skating ability, I think we do see enough kids overcome that shortcoming where I'm not immediately going to write off a player because their skating is poor, especially when they have offensive tools as good as Lucius does.

I wouldn't take Lucius at #6 or anything, but I think he does enough well to justify his mid-first ranking.



I don't think anyone is reluctant to admit anything here, moreso there's simply no chance anyone has a vivid enough recollection of Kyle Turris' performance for the Burnaby Express during the Bush administration to compare him to Kent Johnson in any meaningful way. Even if we were to agree that they're very similar prospects, that's not really a meaningful statement on whether or not Kent Johnson is going to be a successful NHLer.

Not so much Burnaby Express, but Turris's year in the NCAA (His D+1) and Johnson's year at U of M (his draft year).

Turris played at U of Wisconsin with a certain Red Wings great for a season in 2007-08.

 

[Bench]

Turris played at U of Wisconsin with a certain Red Wings great for a season in 2007-08.

Ah yes, who could forget Cody Goloubef.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

Here are a few I've bookmarked as well:

2019.11 | Craig Button (TSN)
2019.12 | Josh Bell (The Hockey Writers)
2020.02 | Scott Wheeler (The Athletic) [paywall]
2020.04 | Tony Ferrari (Dobber Prospects)
2020.04 | Raw Charge
2020.08 | Jokke Nevalainen (Dobber Prospects)
2020.09 | Scott Wheeler (The Athletic) [paywall]
2020.09 | Ashley Glover (Recruit Scouting)
2020.09 | Josh Bell (The Hockey Writers)
2020.09 | Draft Prospects Hockey
2020.10 | Ryan Quinley (Broad Street Hockey)
2020.10 | Corey Pronman (The Athletic) [paywall]
2020.10 | Alex Taxman (Future Scope Hockey)
2020.10 | Gabriel Foley (Last Word On Sports)
2020.11 | Tony Ferrari (Dobber Prospects)
2020.11 | Neutral Zone
2020.11 | Hockey Prospect
2020.11 | Will Scouch (Scouching)
2020.11 | Sam Cosentino (Sportsnet)
2020.11 | Josh Tessler (Smaht Scouting)
2020.12 | Scott Wheeler (The Athletic) [paywall]
2020.12 | Tyson Quibell (The Painted Lines)
2020.12 | Austin Brass (Die by the Blade)
2020.12 | Bob McKenzie (The Sports Network)
2020.12 | Colin Cudmore & Ary M (Silver Seven)
2021.01 | David Ciss (The Puck Authority)
2021.01 | Alex Taxman (Future Scope)
2021.01 | Peter Baracchini (The Hockey Writers)
2021.01 | J.D. Burke (Elite Prospects)
2021.01 | Cam Robinson (Dobber Prospects)
2021.01 | Mike Morreale (NHL.com)
2021.02 | Brock Otten (McKeen's Hockey)
2021.02 | Matthew Zator (The Hockey Writers)
2021.02 | Corey Pronman (The Athletic) [paywall]
2021.02 | Josh Tessler (Smaht Scouting)
2021.02 | Andrew Forbes (The Hockey Writers)
2021.02 | Dan Stewart (Draft Prospects Hockey)
2021.02 | Will Scouch (Scouching)
2021.02 | Recruit Scouting
2021.03 | Peter Harling (Dobber Prospects)
2021.03 | Steve Kournianos (The Draft Analyst)
2021.03 | Scott Wheeler (The Athletic) [paywall]
2021.03 | Tony Ferrari (Dobber Prospects)
2021.03 | Peter Baracchini (The Hockey Writers)
2021.03 | Tyson Quibell (The Painted Lines)
2021.03 | Corey Pronman (The Athletic) [paywall]
2021.04 | Matthew Zator (The Hockey Writers)
2021.04 | Sam Cosentino (Sportsnet)
2021.04 | Hockey Prospect
2021.04 | Curtis Schwartzkopf (The Charging Buffalo)
2021.04 | On The Forecheck
2021.04 | Dan Stewart (Draft Prospects Hockey)
2021.04 | Bob McKenzie (The Sports Network)
2021.04 | Brock Otten (McKeen's Hockey)
2021.04 | Mike G. Morreale (NHL.com)
2021.04 | Ryan Kennedy (Sports Illustrated)
2021.04 | Josh Bell (FC Hockey / Sporting News)
2021.04 | Larry Fisher (UFFS)
2021.05 | Craig Button (TSN)
2021.05 | Sam Cosentino (Sportsnet)
2021.05 | Andrew Forbes (The Hockey Writers)
2021.05 | J.D. Burke (EP Rinkside)
2021.05 | Steve Kournianos (The Draft Analyst)
2021.06 | NHL Central Scouting
2021.06 | Will Scouch (Scouching)
2021.06 | Chris Peters (Hockey Sense) [paywall]
2021.06 | Tony Farrari (Dobber Prospects)
2021.06 | Scott Wheeler (The Athletic) [paywall]
2021.06 | Corey Pronman (The Athletic) [paywall]

That is not a "few". That is a plethora.

 

[The Real Pastafarian]

Yeah, expansion draft is gonna be fun. I kinda like (in a silver lining sort of way) that the Wings have been so bad that they don't have to worry about actually surrendering anyone good to Vegas or Seattle. It's not like we're Florida who literally handed Vegas 2/3rds of a top line for free.

This past season, Tomas Nosek had 8 goals and 18 points playing 4th line minutes in 38 games, and he regularly starts for a team that perennially goes deep in the playoffs. And he costs them about $1M per year.

Nosek is better than most of our forwards. Which isn't saying much, sure, but he's not worthless.

And when the Kraken's tentacle emerges from the briny depths and snags Givani Smith, or Gustav Lindstrom, I'll feel sick. Especially if it's Smith, I think he has potential.

When you don't have many assets, that's when losing even a small asset really stings.