Prospect Info: 2021 Draft - Part 2

[NyQuil]

Losing one game versus winning one game is completely negligible in regards to it's affect on the playing environment.

During Ottawa's post-deadline surge one of the narratives that was floating around was the idea that Ottawa had a good record because they didn't play Toronto or Edmonton. They were beating on the weak teams that were backing into the playoffs.

Fair or not, I'm sure Ottawa saw this match-up with Toronto, albeit with extremely low stakes, as a measuring stick in terms of how far they'd come with their new leadership group and new roster.

I'm not going to pretend that Toronto had their A game out there, but if this late segment of their season was all about proving to themselves that they can compete with anyone, and that they'd made strides in terms of their overall level of play, then I do think it had more than a negligible impact.

Possibly because I'm thinking of them as players and not as emotionless interchangeable components of some hockey machine.

I really do commend your commitment to extracting every last nanolitre of value out of every possible hockey transaction or event, but sometimes you just have to enjoy what is happening on the ice.

 

[Hale The Villain]

These guys are humans lol. Losing f***ing sucks and we've done A LOT of it the last few seasons.

Wouldn't you rather head into an off season pumped up and feeling good after a win?? They're not robots. Can't just program them to try and get the best pick because maybe in like 2-5 years you have an impact player who can help.

f*** the draft position. Learn to win games.

Who said anything about programing them to lose or purposely tanking? I didn't say that.

I want the team to go out trying to win every game. I just said the team's future would be slightly better off having lost that game than winning it.

 

[Answer]

LA, Calgary and Vancouver, all have a solid chance of passing us in the standing, so all hope isn't lost yet

 

[Hale The Villain]

LA, Calgary and Vancouver, all have a solid chance of passing us in the standing, so all hope isn't lost yet

Being passed in the standings by those teams would cause irreparable harm to the emotional well being of our players after winning the Flint Michigan Mega Bowl of hockey games and seizing the coveted 20th spot.

You're not a true fan of the team if you aren't cheering for those teams to lose.

 

[NyQuil]

Being passed in the standings by those teams would cause irreparable harm to the emotional well being of our players after winning the Flint Michigan Mega Bowl of hockey games and seizing the coveted 20th spot.

You're not a true fan of the team if you aren't cheering for those teams to lose.

Well at least you have a sense of humour.

 

[BondraTime]

It’s literally impossible to pick 10th, Flames and Canucks play each other 4 times, at least one of them will pass the Sens.

Sens can pick no lower than 9th.

Edit: I’m a dummy and keep forgetting Seattle.

 

[dmarc]

Did you enjoy watching Norris’ look of delight as he potted the OT winner against the provincial rival Maple Leafs in the final game of the year?

Preach man, so much more stoked with a win to end the season and a good feeling. The difference between 8 and 10 isn't big. I think its friggin great that 8 teams will finish worse than us after being so poo for the first bit of the year

Gotta think we end up with one of Lysell, Lucius or Johnson. Assuming McTavish is off the board. Works for me

 

[StoicSensFan]

It’s literally impossible to pick 10th, Flames and Canucks play each other 4 times, at least one of them will pass the Sens.

Sens can pick no lower than 9th.

Seattle?

 

[BondraTime]

Seattle?

Correct, I frig that up every time. Sens will likely pick 10th

 

[dmarc]

It’s literally impossible to pick 10th, Flames and Canucks play each other 4 times, at least one of them will pass the Sens.

Sens can pick no lower than 9th.

One of them will pass the Sens, like Calgary, but Seattle get a pick too. Bumps us down a spot.
If LAK wins they pass us on RW correct?

 

[BondraTime]

One of them will pass the Sens, like Calgary, but Seattle get a pick too. Bumps us down a spot.
If LAK wins they pass us on RW correct?

Yeah we will pick 9th with a chance at 8th if LA wins, LA lose we pick 10th with a chance at 9th.

 

[operasen]

Let’s say 9 or 10. Given that the top tier has so much equal talent this year, BPA is a given but there are choices. If we were to want to move up say 4 spots into 5-6 range, what would we need to add to our 1st?
Not a core piece or even a core prospect. That’s not on the table.
Would 1st plus Abramov work (I guess he’s now KHL?). 1st and White level (he was a 1st). More. ?

 

[Sting]

Let’s say 9 or 10. Given that the top tier has so much equal talent this year, BPA is a given but there are choices. If we were to want to move up say 4 spots into 5-6 range, what would we need to add to our 1st?
Not a core piece or even a core prospect. That’s not on the table.
Would 1st plus Abramov work (I guess he’s now KHL?). 1st and White level (he was a 1st). More. ?

Nobody is going to want those assets honestly. To move up you are going to have to add something like a 2nd or a decent player/prospect. I wouldn't foresee Abramov or White factoring into any team's plans.

I imagine we'll get someone like Lucius at 10. As I mentioned before, there are a lot of unknowns in this draft but it does seem like there's a dropoff after 7-8. I hope we at least get a good NHLer out of this because we likely have 2-3 holes to fill in the top 6 imo.

 

[Bileur]

They will certainly shore up our AHL team with local talent when they need to fill out an AHL roster, local guys definitely have favour there, but it hasn’t had any impact on their drafting over the past 10 years.

They’ve only drafted out of the OHL 2 times since 2014, when Mann began to move up the ladder.

Sens have used the OHL the least by a large amount in that time frame.

Not sure what you’re arguing against anymore. I never suggested the sens would give preference to OHL prospects.

You’re right that local ties may not ultimately have a significant impact on the draft.

It’s been cold for a while. But there is a history of drafting guys with local ties aside from the AHL/depth NHL signings. Aside from Pageau and Ceci which you mentioned there’s also Vince Dunn (Hull), Francois Brassard (Gatineau), Shane Prince (67’s). So that’s 5 in 10 years.

If you go back a few more years you add Cowick (double as he’s from Ottawa and played for the 67’s) , Borowiecki (Kanata), PL Lessard (Gatineau).

To be fair there are only so many guys with local ties available in each draft and obviously it depends on how things fall out and whether they’re available at the right value when the sens pick. There are many other factors are at play.

I never suggested it was the most important factor or that the sens give it more weight than any other factor. In fact, I think it’s a pretty low importance factor, but I do think it’s pretty clear that the sens keep tabs on guys with local ties. All other things being equal, it could be taken into consideration.

 

[NewSNESJersey]

LA, Calgary and Vancouver, all have a solid chance of passing us in the standing, so all hope isn't lost yet

I have my doubts of LA beating a President's Trophy chasing Avalanche and Vancouver being able to get at least 7 out of a possible 10 points.

 

[Asquaredx2]

Last year we lucked out with the standings when the season ended with both the Sens and SJ falling below LA. But then LA won one of the lottery picks and jumped up to 2nd. But then they took Byfield which left us with Stutzle.

I guess you win (lose) some, you lose (win) some.

But if there was ever a draft not to lament picking 10th instead of 8th, it would probably be this one. Especially given how hard it was to scout everyone this year.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

 

[Icelevel]

What’s with the “8 to 10” spot talk?

Wouldn’t we have been picking higher than 8th if we lost the last game?

 

[NewSNESJersey]

What’s with the “8 to 10” spot talk?

Wouldn’t we have been picking higher than 8th if we lost the last game?

If Ottawa had lost they would have been no better than 6th pick based on the standings at the time.

1st - Buffalo
2nd - Anaheim
3rd - New Jersey
4th - Columbus
5th - Detroit
6th - Ottawa

However, you need to factor in Seattle being guaranteed a top 5 spot and Vancouver having essentially no chance to catch Ottawa. This drops Ottawa down to 8th pick at best. Thanks to San Jose and Los Angeles losing their last game, Ottawa now drops down to 10th pick at best. If Ottawa had lost in regulation against Toronto, the only team that would pass Ottawa would be Los Angeles (which raises Ottawa's pick to 9th) with a slightly better but still unlikely chance of Vancouver passing (Ottawa is now 8th)

Of course lottery win changes everything but that's not the point.

 

[Icelevel]

If Ottawa had lost they would have been no better than 6th pick based on the standings at the time.

1st - Buffalo
2nd - Anaheim
3rd - New Jersey
4th - Columbus
5th - Detroit
6th - Ottawa

However, you need to factor in Seattle being guaranteed a top 5 spot and Vancouver having essentially no chance to catch Ottawa. This drops Ottawa down to 8th pick at best. Thanks to San Jose and Los Angeles losing their last game, Ottawa now drops down to 10th pick at best. If Ottawa had lost in regulation against Toronto, the only team that would pass Ottawa would be Los Angeles (which raises Ottawa's pick to 9th) with a slightly better but still unlikely chance of Vancouver passing (Ottawa is now 8th)

Of course lottery win changes everything but that's not the point.

What do you mean “at the time”?

What about final standings?
Columbus and Detroit have 48 pts.
Ottawa would have 47

 

[Slippy]

Silver lining update: The lower the Sens sit in the draft lottery rankings, the less chance that they fall back.

Again, I'm not too worried. It would be great to win the lottery and get Clarke, Beniers, Power, or Guenther or whoever the team likes, but there will be a good player that the Sens like at #10 or so. Whether that will be McTavish, Sillinger, et al. It could also be very likely that one of the top 5-8 drop as other teams pick players they've evaluated or like higher. Happens every year. Many thought Rossi and Perfetti would go a few spots higher last year, but...

 

[BondraTime]

Silver lining update: The lower the Sens sit in the draft lottery rankings, the less chance that they fall back.

Again, I'm not too worried. It would be great to win the lottery and get Clarke, Beniers, Power, or Guenther or whoever the team likes, but there will be a good player that the Sens like at #10 or so. Whether that will be McTavish, Sillinger, et al. It could also be very likely that one of the top 5-8 drop as other teams pick players they've evaluated or like higher. Happens every year. Many thought Rossi and Perfetti would go a few spots higher last year, but...

Sens are perfectly fine sitting at 10, I have 0 doubts they’ll get one of their top 5/7 guys, I doubt they have the separation there usually is between guys at 2 and guys at 13.

Would be great to get Power, but the difference between the top guy and 10th guy is nowhere near what it is in 95% of other drafts.

 

[SAK11]

What do you mean “at the time”?

What about final standings?
Columbus and Detroit have 48 pts.
Ottawa would have 47

Ottawa finished with 51 points.

 

[GoMyTeam]

Does McTavish speak German?

 

[dmarc]

Does McTavish speak German?

I mean I dunno how much you are joking but its likely he speaks some Swiss German as his father played pro there until Mason would have been 7ish...