Prospect Info: 2021 Devils-Centric Mock Draft 2.0 for May

[Jason MacIsaac]

An Anaheim Duck fan posted this, thought it was interesting.

Some interesting answers from Pronman's Mailbag

Brandt Clarke’s stock has been on the rise since the U18s started in Dallas. How do you view him in terms of NHL potential? Could he challenge for No. 1? If not where do you think he gets selected? — Matthew P
I’ve talked to scouts excited about him since the tournament and some who actually didn’t like him/thought he faded after his great first game. I think his stock is rather steady. He will go between six and 10 if I was doing a mock draft now. I project him as a No. 2 or 3 D who could be a PP1 type.

This is terrible news for those who like Hughes. I am in the same boat, I don't like his skating and I didn't think he was all that sticky below the hashmarks.

 

[TrufleShufle]

I think strategically, making this draft super D heavy would be best. We have enough forward prospects fighting for position. When the top six is solidified and knowing where the holes are, we will have the backend covered presumably. High end wingers move more often than high end D, coupled with the prospects typically being more valuable on D, we will have better assets to work with. I think we will be in a position to easily fill any hole up front if we are in the position.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Hrm, maybe we should continue the theme of defensmen and hope one sticks as a franchise defensmen. I liked what I saw out of Coroson Ceulemans at the U18.

I'd say Ceulemans is about 50/50 for the #21 overall slot. Defensemen and centers traditionally go a bit higher than expected in the draft, and it's certain wingers who fall.

My defensemen can be broken up into two tiers at the start of the draft. My "Big 3 D" is Clarke, Power and Hughes -- of course all will likely be gone by #6 overall.

My "Tier 2 D" is a bit less universal, so I'll also list where I expect them to be drafted.
Edvinsson (6-11)
Lambos (10-25)
Ceulemans (15-25)
Heimosalmi (20-35)

 

[StevenToddIves]

Yeah I think im missing something in Clarke's game as well because I dont see #1D potential unless he were to greatly improve his stride and footwork

If you were going to compile a list of the past 5 Norris Trophy winners, I would say Clarke is not as good of a skater as three of them (Josi, Doughty, Hedman) and better than two of them (Giordano, Burns). Considering Clarke has some of the best hands we've ever seen on a defenseman and also features exceptional passing and shooting abilities, I'm willing to overlook an unconventional skating stride and lack of high-end top speeds, especially when we factor in his terrific edges.

 

[StevenToddIves]

My thinking is that NJ at least puts feelers out about trading up depending upon how the lottery goes. I'm skeptical they pay the toll to upgrade from wherever they land to a pick in the top three but they can at least make a somewhat competitive offer to tell Jack they tried. I'm not sure that VAN will be that interested in Luke short of winning the draft lottery. Moving up from 9 or 10 or wherever they end up if they don't win the draft lottery would be very prohibitive most likely. In my view, it sounds like Luke may be sort of redundant with Quinn. Sure, he's taller, but they are both swift skating offensive defenders who likely never project to be first pair level guys when defending even if their offense and/or transition is first pair level. Frankly, I'm not sure VAN would be all that interested in Jack. He's sort of redundant with Elias "Toast" Petterson and VAN gets no bump from the fact that he is American the way a team in NJ can market him. I don't see any of the Hughes boys leaving a nickel on the table in any contract. If VAN ended up with all three and Elias "Toast" Petterson they'd make the TOR cap situation look balanced.

The Devils have an almost 30% chance of drafting either #1, #2 or #4 -- in which case all the "trade up" talk can stop; they won't have to. If the Devils wind up at their most likely draft position of #5, they still have a very good chance of getting one of the Big 3 D. I think it's only in the scenario where the Devils fall to #6 (I think it's also around 30%) that any of this talk will be necessary.

I'm going to say that all this talk about Vancouver falling all over themselves to draft Luke Hughes is silly to me. If the Canucks won a #1 or #2 lottery slot, there's no doubt in my mind the guy they would take is Owen Power.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I think strategically, making this draft super D heavy would be best. We have enough forward prospects fighting for position. When the top six is solidified and knowing where the holes are, we will have the backend covered presumably. High end wingers move more often than high end D, coupled with the prospects typically being more valuable on D, we will have better assets to work with. I think we will be in a position to easily fill any hole up front if we are in the position.

It's a reasonable strategy long term, but we all have to admit how weird and tough to predict the 2021 draft is due to the pandemic. There's a realistic chance that 7 defensemen could be picked by the time the Devils step to the podium with the Islanders pick at #20 or #21 -- Power, Clarke, Hughes, Edvinsson, Lambos, Ceulemans and Heimosalmi.

If this is the case -- even if 6 of these names are gone, which is even more likely -- the "best player available" is very likely to be a forward. Do the Devils pass on a potential game-breaking forward like Rosen, Othmann, Svechkov, Pinelli or Sillinger to grit their teeth and push a lower-ranked defenseman up their draft board? I'm not sure that is the best call.

The reality is that Power, Clarke, Hughes and Edvinsson will be gone by the first 10 or 11 picks.

Lambos can also go in that range, but he can also fall due to a very uninspiring draft-eligible season. He's the ultimate upside/risk player, maybe in the entire 2021 draft. As such, he could go anywhere from the top 10 to the early 20s.

Ceulemans is the most intriguing draft target, since his likely draft range is #15-#25 and the Devils should see themselves drafting in the middle of that range. Also, he's a RD, which a greater need (by far) than LD in the Devils prospect pipeline.

Heimosalmi might be a bit of a stretch at #20 or #21, and although he's also a RD, if he were the best D available with the pick I would hope the Devils would try to trade down 5-9 slots where they could very possibly still get him and also pick up a 2nd round pick.

 

[My3Sons]

The Devils have an almost 30% chance of drafting either #1, #2 or #4 -- in which case all the "trade up" talk can stop; they won't have to. If the Devils wind up at their most likely draft position of #5, they still have a very good chance of getting one of the Big 3 D. I think it's only in the scenario where the Devils fall to #6 (I think it's also around 30%) that any of this talk will be necessary.

I'm going to say that all this talk about Vancouver falling all over themselves to draft Luke Hughes is silly to me. If the Canucks won a #1 or #2 lottery slot, there's no doubt in my mind the guy they would take is Owen Power.

I trust you to offer your considered opinions on the prospects. Based on your thoughts, I'd have a hard time taking Hughes over Clarke with the NJ pick assuming both are available. Clarke sounds like a right handed more impressive version of Smith with a better shot. Unless Hughes offers much better defending, it's hard for me to update Hughes over him unless the skating disparity is so great to be problematic for Clarke. Maybe I'm reading your posts incorrectly but Clarke has the edge over Hughes in hands, IQ, shot, passing vision and passing touch, and defending in space and defending in close? If that's the case, would NJ fans even be talking so highly of Hughes were he not Jack's brother? That said, some of the statements Fitz has made suggest to me that NJ is all in on Jack and Jack has admitted he has lobbied for his brother directly to Fitz. With a window open to extend Jack that's a hard decision Fitz will have if both are there when NJ picks if NJ sees Clarke as a somewhat better prospect, especially when you look at the wealth of prospects on the left side and the relative scarcity of the prospects on the right side.

 

[TrufleShufle]

It's a reasonable strategy long term, but we all have to admit how weird and tough to predict the 2021 draft is due to the pandemic. There's a realistic chance that 7 defensemen could be picked by the time the Devils step to the podium with the Islanders pick at #20 or #21 -- Power, Clarke, Hughes, Edvinsson, Lambos, Ceulemans and Heimosalmi.

If this is the case -- even if 6 of these names are gone, which is even more likely -- the "best player available" is very likely to be a forward. Do the Devils pass on a potential game-breaking forward like Rosen, Othmann, Svechkov, Pinelli or Sillinger to grit their teeth and push a lower-ranked defenseman up their draft board? I'm not sure that is the best call.

The reality is that Power, Clarke, Hughes and Edvinsson will be gone by the first 10 or 11 picks.

Lambos can also go in that range, but he can also fall due to a very uninspiring draft-eligible season. He's the ultimate upside/risk player, maybe in the entire 2021 draft. As such, he could go anywhere from the top 10 to the early 20s.

Ceulemans is the most intriguing draft target, since his likely draft range is #15-#25 and the Devils should see themselves drafting in the middle of that range. Also, he's a RD, which a greater need (by far) than LD in the Devils prospect pipeline.

Heimosalmi might be a bit of a stretch at #20 or #21, and although he's also a RD, if he were the best D available with the pick I would hope the Devils would try to trade down 5-9 slots where they could very possibly still get him and also pick up a 2nd round pick.

What I said sounds more final then what I meant, if there is an obvious group of 7-8 forwards before the next even decent D ranking wise, you pick BPA, but when when things are close and there isn't some absolute forward steal, you go D.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I trust you to offer your considered opinions on the prospects. Based on your thoughts, I'd have a hard time taking Hughes over Clarke with the NJ pick assuming both are available. Clarke sounds like a right handed more impressive version of Smith with a better shot. Unless Hughes offers much better defending, it's hard for me to update Hughes over him unless the skating disparity is so great to be problematic for Clarke. Maybe I'm reading your posts incorrectly but Clarke has the edge over Hughes in hands, IQ, shot, passing vision and passing touch, and defending in space and defending in close? If that's the case, would NJ fans even be talking so highly of Hughes were he not Jack's brother? That said, some of the statements Fitz has made suggest to me that NJ is all in on Jack and Jack has admitted he has lobbied for his brother directly to Fitz. With a window open to extend Jack that's a hard decision Fitz will have if both are there when NJ picks if NJ sees Clarke as a somewhat better prospect, especially when you look at the wealth of prospects on the left side and the relative scarcity of the prospects on the right side.

Luke Hughes is also a tremendous prospect in his own right. Though his shooting is not in Clarke's neighborhood and his defense and puck decisions need a ton more work, he missed the 2023 draft by like a week and his combination of skating and puck skills are just mind-boggling, especially when you consider he'll probably enter the NHL at around 6'3-195.

I find Clarke and Smith to be very different players. Smith is almost insidious in his offensive production, whereas Clarke is flashy as hell. They're both very smart and competitive, however. They'd be a hell of a duo on the 1PP, that's for sure.

 

[StevenToddIves]

What I said sounds more final then what I meant, if there is an obvious group of 7-8 forwards before the next even decent D ranking wise, you pick BPA, but when when things are close and there isn't some absolute forward steal, you go D.

Absolutely agree here.

I think it's okay to use positional need as a "tie-breaker" between two similarly ranked players, but when a team says to themselves "we really need to take a D with our next pick" it's generally asking for disaster.

If you're deciding between Corson Ceulemans and Othmann or Rosen at #21 and you take Ceulemans? That's fine -- you've probably got them ranked in a similar area. But if Ceulemans is gone and you reach for Chayka over Othmann or Rosen? I don't feel that's any way to build a winning organization.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Sitting at home injured isn't going to boost Hughes stock, so if the forward prospects are boosting their stock over Clarke and potentially Hughes, it's all the better for us to land at least one of them.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

One thing that I haven't seen mentioned - Buffalo will be picking ahead of us unless we are drafting 1st or 2nd overall so that's one team that won't be taking one of the top defenseman as I'd have to assume they go Beniers. Anaheim will likely take Powers if he is on the board however if he is not I think they will take Hughes or Edvinsson. Seattle - i have zero clue which direction they would go.

 

[Oneiro]

Clarke makes far better reads than Power and Hughes to my eyes. That's enough to mitigate the skating woes, which are very overblown.

 

[aboriginal]

Yusaku Ando at eliteprospects.com

Thoughts on him in the later rounds? I’m a sucker for Japan. @StevenToddIves

 

[Darkauron]

Yusaku Ando at eliteprospects.com

Thoughts on him in the later rounds? I’m a sucker for Japan. @StevenToddIves

I am too. But I really doubt he gets drafted this year. If he explodes more next year..then maybe someone might draft him as an overrager at most.

Still, im rooting for him to get drafted though!

 

[Captain3rdLine]

it looks like they’ve changed the odds, we have the same odds as Seattle for the 1st pick.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

these are what the odds have previously been.
They technically go up a bit more too considering an Arizona win wouldn’t count.
If my math is correct we actually have a 10.6% chance of picking 1st.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

most teams odds went down a bit but ours went up it seems

 

[Guttersniped]

it looks like they’ve changed the odds, we have the same odds as Seattle for the 1st pick.

WTF kind of odds are those? The good news is that we have better odds then 4OA had before. So yay us!

The bad news, in terms of fairness is the top three (worst) teams odds went slightly down for some weird reason. And some the bottom teams odds went slightly up? There are just some weird adjustments but we benefit so I guess good job NHL!

edit: I think the top teams went down too much but the bottom isn’t too bad and we really do benefit so *shrug*

 

[Captain3rdLine]

WTF kind of odds are those? The good news is that we have better odds then 4OA had before. So yay us!

The bad news, in terms of fairness is the top three (worst) teams odds went slightly down for some weird reason. And some the bottom teams odds went slightly up? There are just some weird adjustments but we benefit so I guess good job NHL!


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I’m waiting for someone to do all the math and show what our odds for the 2nd, 4th, 5th, and 6th pick are.

 

[Goptor]

I'm not sure why they should bother with a redraw if Arizona wins. Why don't they just give the #1 or #2 pick to them and then have it be forfeited?

I don't like making up a bunch of new rules to facilitate a situation if the original rules can be applied without issue. It just seems messy and disorganized.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I'm not sure why they should bother with a redraw if Arizona wins. Why don't they just give the #1 or #2 pick to them and then have it be forfeited?

I don't like making up a bunch of new rules to facilitate a situation if the original rules can be applied without issue. It just seems messy and disorganized.

It makes perfect sense to me.
How they’re doing it Arizona’s odds have basically been distributed to the rest of the teams. If they did it how you said it would just increase the odds of the top team and really make it complicated in other ways. If Arizona wins the 1st pick is the second lottery for the 1st pick or the 2nd still. How they’re doing it is actually very simple and fair.

 

[Hisch13r]

I'm not sure why they should bother with a redraw if Arizona wins. Why don't they just give the #1 or #2 pick to them and then have it be forfeited?

I don't like making up a bunch of new rules to facilitate a situation if the original rules can be applied without issue. It just seems messy and disorganized.

Wouldn't be the NHL without that

 

[Cheddabombs]

1 in 10 odds baby I'm feeling it. I really think a third 1st overall pick will be what gets us over the hump

 

[Guttersniped]

I'm not sure why they should bother with a redraw if Arizona wins. Why don't they just give the #1 or #2 pick to them and then have it be forfeited?

I don't like making up a bunch of new rules to facilitate a situation if the original rules can be applied without issue. It just seems messy and disorganized.

My god, what you’re suggestion would set off an existential crisis. (Does the Arizona pick exist? If it’s in the lottery does that mean it must exist at some point in this process? If so when is it forfeited? It they’re in the draft lottery and win the lottery are they then forfeiting the pick or the pick AND the lottery win?... *heads explode*)

I assume an Arizona rep doesn’t have to go the lottery and potentially watch their team potentially not win the lottery via a win of the lottery.

Someone broke down the biggest losers and winner of the odd tweaks so you don’t have to:
Winners: Ottawa, Vancouver, Devils
Losers: Buffalo, Anaheim, Seattle