Prospect Info: 2021 Devils-Centric Mock Draft 2.0 for May

[Devs3cups]

Yes , if we miss out on the D I hope like hell Ceulemans is still there or Lambos . Even later in in the second round I hope someone like Del Mastro is available.

That's where trading away our 2021 2nd (most likely 37th O.) to Vegas for Gusev stings a little.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

It still seems to me that the "big 3 d" labeling is pretty localized to this board and @StevenToddIves's rankings. I see so many rankings with Edvinsson ahead of the 3 guys or mixed in, most notably McKenzie's rankings (dated april 17) and Button's rankings (dated may 12). I'm not going to pretend like I know he's not fool's gold and people are just enamored with a guy his size that can skate like that but things very look good for NJ in terms of adding an impact dman at 5 if Edvinsson is on their level.

 

[Eggtimer]

If we miss on the big 3 , we need to hope Caulemens or Lambos is there with Islanders pick.
I am scared of Edvinsson after watching him more. He looks good for now but it looks like he is always on the verge of losing the puck trying to dangle and do too much . He sort of gets away with it vs. his current competition , but that shit won’t work in the NHL.
Yes he is big and can skate well but his hickey IQ scares me. He doesn’t react and make decisions on the fly . You ca tell he just makes plays based off of general situations . I don’t know how to word it.
It’s like he has a “defence for dummies” handbook and follows the steps rather than making his own reads and making the correct choices based off that .

 

[Eggtimer]

If Power Clarke Hughes is gone , who do you guys want then?
I assume Beniers will be gone but for the sake of this discussion I put the forward I’d with this in order:
Beniers
Eklund
Geunther
Johnson

 

[Devs3cups]

If we miss on the big 3 , we need to hope Caulemens or Lambos is there with Islanders pick.
I am scared of Edvinsson after watching him more. He looks good for now but it looks like he is always on the verge of losing the puck trying to dangle and do too much . He sort of gets away with it vs. his current competition , but that shit won’t work in the NHL.
Yes he is big and can skate well but his hickey IQ scares me. He doesn’t react and make decisions on the fly . You ca tell he just makes plays based off of general situations . I don’t know how to word it.
It’s like he has a “defence for dummies” handbook and follows the steps rather than making his own reads and making the correct choices based off that .

I like his highlights here from the U-18 quite a bit. He looks pretty solid to me. Sure they are highlights and don't necessarily show his weaknesses, but there is potential there imo. Pretty good gap control, entry defense, skating, passing, offensive instincts, body checking, etc.

 

[longislanddevil]

same as it ever was...same as it ever was. i hate the idea of trading up if we're picking 6th, but we cannot afford to take another forward. if the price to move up is too high so be it, but that should be something we explore if necessary.

I’m usually not a proponent of moving up and giving away assets. I understand this isn’t regarded as the draft to move up....BUT...I echo your sentiment 100%. If the cost isn’t exorbitant (could a second round pick be enough or a second with a prospect?), I wouldn’t feel comfortable at 6 in hoping Clarke or Hughes fall (Power will go in the top 3 I am sure.) Yes- I still have last draft fresh in my mind. Missing out on Drysdale by one spot was frustrating.

It will be interesting to see who (if) moves up to a top 2 spot. Maybe then we will get a more clearer vision of how we can project the picks.

 

[Eggtimer]

I like his highlights here from the U-18 quite a bit. He looks pretty solid to me. Sure they are highlights and don't necessarily show his weaknesses, but there is potential there imo. Pretty good gap control, entry defense, skating, passing, offensive instincts, body checking, etc.

Yes I’m not saying he will be useless but I’d be scared to take him with our pick . Islanders pick , hell ya but he will be long gone

 

[NJ07102]

Yes I’m not saying he will be useless but I’d be scared to take him with our pick . Islanders pick , hell ya but he will be long gone

Highlight videos are a nice but also a very dangerous thing. You could put together a highlight video of just about any player and he would look pretty good.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

If Power Clarke Hughes is gone , who do you guys want then?
I assume Beniers will be gone but for the sake of this discussion I put the forward I’d with this in order:
Beniers
Eklund
Geunther
Johnson

Edvinsson but I haven't really done any deep dives yet on any of the prospects. I think the picture will become clearer once we get closer to the draft despite people's assumptions that it's wide open this year. By the time the draft comes around it might seem crazy that he goes that early, and it might seem crazy that he'd even go that late.

 

[Eggtimer]

Edvinsson but I haven't really done any deep dives yet on any of the prospects. I think the picture will become clearer once we get closer to the draft despite people's assumptions that it's wide open this year. By the time the draft comes around it might seem crazy that he goes that early, and it might seem crazy that he'd even go that late.

You’d go Edvinsson over the forwards ? It would be hard to pass on someone like Eklund to pair with Holtz . If we knew that there would still be a good D with our Islanders pick , I would 100% go forward with our own pick but who the hell knows what will happen

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

You’d go Edvinsson over the forwards ? It would be hard to pass on someone like Eklund to pair with Holtz . If we knew that there would still be a good D with our Islanders pick , I would 100% go forward with our own pick but who the hell knows what will happen

I would but I'm pretty ignorant and am basically trusting a few rankings and scouting reports. I like Beniers a lot based on what I saw in the WJCs but I agree the organization needs high end defense so badly I'd pass on them if Edvinsson's ceiling is as described. Right now basically Ty Smith is the only guy in NJ i'm sure can be a top 4 dman for them in 4 years.

 

[Hisch13r]

If Power Clarke Hughes is gone , who do you guys want then?
I assume Beniers will be gone but for the sake of this discussion I put the forward I’d with this in order:
Beniers
Eklund
Geunther
Johnson

Beniers
Eklund/Lysell

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

I like his highlights here from the U-18 quite a bit. He looks pretty solid to me. Sure they are highlights and don't necessarily show his weaknesses, but there is potential there imo. Pretty good gap control, entry defense, skating, passing, offensive instincts, body checking, etc.

3:22 He'd fit right in.

 

[StevenToddIves]

What type of D is Seider? Is he more offensive or defensive ? Would Detroit prefer Power over Hughes or would they think that Hughes game compliments Seider’s game the most? At least they wouldnt take Clarke as he is a RHD.

Moritz Seider is the #1 RD prospect in the NHL, possibly depending on whether or not you still consider Jamie Drysdale still a prospect. He's a 6'4, solidly-built defender who is absolutely terrific in his own zone and skates very well. There's no panic in him with the puck, and he can beat you cerebrally or physically -- this is a player not afraid to throw his considerable strength around. His outlet and transitional passing are excellent. In the offensive zone, Seider checks off every box without being truly exceptional in one particular aspect -- he's a smart and efficient passer, he has a nice set of hands and he can hammer a good, hard shot. His puck-decisions are excellent and his maturity and poise belie his age.

Seider projects as a true shut-down defenseman -- mobile and physical -- who can also add 40+ points per year. This year he was far and away the best defenseman in the Swedish men's league, probably the third-best hockey league in the world. Though he's unlikely to ever be a player to add John Carlson-like scoring totals of 60+ points per year, he is a potential Norris Trophy winner because he should add good offense to superlative defense.

The 2021 draft-eligible defenseman who would compliment Seider in the most traditional sense would have to be Luke Hughes. Seider's outstanding defense would compliment Hughes' high-end offense from the LD, and you'd have a very fast Seider alongside a blindingly fast Hughes. Plus, you'd have a 6'4 and 6'2 guy back there -- combined with the skating and smarts these two would cover so much ice it would be ridiculous. They would be an automatic match-up impossibility for pretty much any line in the NHL.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I wouldn’t assume the Canucks want Hughes. I think we would be more likely to want him.

I think if the Canucks win the lotto, they take Power.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I don't think we will have a chance to pass on Hughes for Clarke unless we win the lotto.

Most likely two D will be gone by pick 4 or 5

At #4, the Devils would have an overwhelming chance for one of the "Big 3 D", as there is a very strong chance Buffalo would take Beniers, a good chance Anaheim would take Beniers, and -- judging by the history of expansion teams -- an overwhelming chance Seattle would take him.

If the Devils fall to #5, there is still a very good chance of the Devils getting one of the Big 3, but it lowers on a sliding scale depending on which team wins the lotto to move the Devils back a spot.

At #6, it's still possible but it's nail-biting time.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Also worth noting that McKenzie’s rankings (which take into account NHL scouts rankings), had Guenther at 2. This draft is really a wild card. I’m fairly confident that if we’re drafting 4th or 5th, we’re getting one of the Big 3.

And if we’re being honest, we’re getting a really good player regardless. I’d love to get one of the D, but I’ll be thrilled with a potential first line forward also.

McKenzie's rankings are destined to change after the U-18 tournament. Guenther might drop a bit, he was very good but not one of the top 5 forwards on Team Canada, much less in the tournament. Similarly, I cannot see ten scouts consummately ranking Edvinsson over Clarke after a tournament where they went head-to-head twice and Edvinsson was not even on Clarke's level. Players who excelled in the U-18 who also might see a jump include McTavish, Othmann, Pinelli, Ceulemans, Rosen, Lysell, Svechkov, Chibrikov, Tuomaala and Heimosalmi.

 

[StevenToddIves]

You can also get pretty disappointing, or underwhelming ones for high picks:

Hickey (4th, 2007)
Bogosian (3rd, 2008)
Schenn (5th, 2008)
Cowen (9th, 2009)
Gudbranson (3rd, 2010)
Larsson (4th, 2011)
Murray (2nd, 2012)
Reinhart (4th, 2012)
Pouliot (8th, 2012)
Fleury (7th, 2014)
Juolevi (5th, 2016)

It's also worth noting that A LOT of star/elite d-men were drafted in the later rounds of all of those drafts.

I'd love to get one of the top-3 D this draft, in fact it's my ideal scenario. But I don't believe our draft will be a fail if we get a high-level, 1st line forward with our first pick and end up picking a solid d-man with the Isles pick.

Interesting that every D on this list lacks either high-end IQ, high-end passing ability, or both.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Yes , if we miss out on the D I hope like hell Ceulemans is still there or Lambos . Even later in in the second round I hope someone like Del Mastro is available.

The second tier of defensemen in the 2021 draft is very interesting to me. Right now I would rank them: Svozil, Edvinsson, Lambos, Ceulemans, Heimosalmi.

Svozil and Edvinsson should both be excellent defenders, but the offensive upside is nothing to blow you away. Lambos and Ceulemans are the "upside guys" -- some risk with both of them, but either could potentially be the defender to take off and rival the "Big 3" of Clarke/Hughes/Power in terms of NHL greatness if everything goes right. Heimosalmi is going to be different -- he's a slick and cerebral defender, but he's never going to be a true shut down guy, but his transition game and offense should be very, very good.

 

[StevenToddIves]

It still seems to me that the "big 3 d" labeling is pretty localized to this board and @StevenToddIves's rankings. I see so many rankings with Edvinsson ahead of the 3 guys or mixed in, most notably McKenzie's rankings (dated april 17) and Button's rankings (dated may 12). I'm not going to pretend like I know he's not fool's gold and people are just enamored with a guy his size that can skate like that but things very look good for NJ in terms of adding an impact dman at 5 if Edvinsson is on their level.

I continue to say that Edvinsson is a very good NHL prospect. But putting him on a level with the Big 3 seems a stretch to me, and others (Corey Pronman, Steve Kournianos, Grant McCagg) who are extremely respected in the industry. There are no #13 or #17 or #21 rankings of Power, Clarke or Hughes -- anywhere. Why the disparity for Edvinsson?

Well, offensively, he's never proved anything yet -- certainly not on the level of the "Big 3". Here's the 2021 numbers:

Power (NCAA): 26 games, 3g 16a 19p
Edvinsson (SJ20, ALL, SHL): 38 games, 1g 11a 12p
Clarke (SLO): 26 games, 5g 10a 15p
Hughes (USHL/NCAA) 56 games, 10g 39a 49p

For reference, Power consistently played against the strongest competition. Though Edvinsson played in the strongest league (SHL 10 games) he also played in the weakest one (SJ20 14 games).

When Edvinsson and Clarke went head to head in the U-18, it was no contest. Clarke was unanimously considered either the top defenseman in the tournament or the second best after Heimosalmi. His offense was undeniable, and the question in his game leading up to the tournament -- defensive play -- was answered quite emphatically with his air-tight play in his own zone.

Edvinsson is a very good defender who offers a terrific mix of size, speed, hands and compete level. But the people who rank him outside the top dozen overall point to a propensity for mistakes which lead to opportunities in the other direction, combined with a limited offensive ceiling. Though no one thinks Edvinsson is anything other than an excellent prospect worthy of a 1st round selection, you have to wonder where the offense is going to come from. If you compare his passing to the "Big 3", it would rank 4th, light years from Clarke or Hughes and just behind Power. Shooting? Again, a 4th -- and he is far, far behind the other three. Though hockey IQ is more difficult to quantify, it would be tough to put him in the same stratosphere as Clarke or Hughes, though the argument could be made that he could rival Power, at least offensively.

Ultimately, I encourage all the readers on these threads to read everyone's scouting reports and analysis and not rely on mine alone. But the fact is that the lack of disparity among rankings with the Big 3 D of Power/Hughes/Clarke -- no major rankings outside the top 10 for any of them -- and Edvinsson has to be indicative of something. I also feel that the majority of draft busts over the past two decades are what I call the "Hugh Jessiman Factor" of teams drafting big & fast guys over players who have shown a greater proclivity in the sport of hockey. This is not to say that Edvinsson is going to be a Hugh Jessiman -- quite the opposite, I feel Edvinsson is a strong bet to be a very good NHL defenseman. But his skill set and historic production are not on the level with the other three guys, and projecting him to flip a switch and somehow be an elite IQ D+offense producer -- based on his abilities and statistical output -- simply do not put him in the same tier with those other players.

 

[Eggtimer]

Oh very interesting that the second “tier” of D is lead by Svozil . I assumed Edvinsdon would be first . It’s hard to decide between Lambos and Ceulman . For me it depends on who we get with our first pick. If both are still there I think I go Ceuleman if we take a forward with the first pick.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Oh very interesting that the second “tier” of D is lead by Svozil . I assumed Edvinsdon would be first . It’s hard to decide between Lambos and Ceulman . For me it depends on who we get with our first pick. If both are still there I think I go Ceuleman if we take a forward with the first pick

Check out my draft rankings. I have Svozil at #14, then Edvinsson/Lambos/Ceulemans/Heimosalmi at 18-21.

All of these players to me are comparable, and in the same tier of defense. I rank Svozil on top because -- like Edvinsson -- he projects as a shut-down defender but lacking high-end offense, but Svozil to me is more cerebral and less mistake-prone in his own zone. Lambos is the wild card, he has the upside to be the best D in the entire 2021 draft, but if things go wrong... well, this is a kid with a lot of risk and improvements to make. Ceulemans is probably second on this list in terms of offensive upside to Lambos, and Heimosalmi is right behind those two but has some physical limitations.

 

[Monsieur Verdoux]

McKenzie's rankings are destined to change after the U-18 tournament. Guenther might drop a bit, he was very good but not one of the top 5 forwards on Team Canada, much less in the tournament. Similarly, I cannot see ten scouts consummately ranking Edvinsson over Clarke after a tournament where they went head-to-head twice and Edvinsson was not even on Clarke's level. Players who excelled in the U-18 who also might see a jump include McTavish, Othmann, Pinelli, Ceulemans, Rosen, Lysell, Svechkov, Chibrikov, Tuomaala and Heimosalmi.

I wouldn't be surprised if those rankings are still pretty similar. As Steve Kournianos wrote:

"Still, the question remains — is this tournament really that important when trying to assess a player’s potential at the NHL level? Some call it a piece to a puzzle, while others have used it (or other short tournaments for that matter) as the basis for selecting a player much higher than expected (e.g. Jesperi Kotkaniemi in 2018).
I’d lean more towards insignificance than anything else... (...)

Hence, the slope becomes slippery, which is why it’s imperative to evaluate the prospects over far larger sample sizes of league play, even if that means going back a full season to 2019-20. Otherwise, you fall into the deep chasm of recency bias that props up short-tournament performances over larger, more indicative bodies of regular-season work. This report, as extensive as it may seem, is just to meet a demand for information and will have little to no impact on how I assess their potential for NHL stardom, but that’s my preference."

Recap: 2021 IIHF U18 World Championship (Top Draft Prospects) - The Draft Analyst

 

[Eggtimer]

I would but I'm pretty ignorant and am basically trusting a few rankings and scouting reports. I like Beniers a lot based on what I saw in the WJCs but I agree the organization needs high end defense so badly I'd pass on them if Edvinsson's ceiling is as described. Right now basically Ty Smith is the only guy in NJ i'm sure can be a top 4 dman for them in 4 years.

Yes I agree that D is a huge need and the biggest need currently. I’m not sure what to think if the three D we gone. I think we should go BPA as who knows how much will change in two years with possible roster moves / trades / signings. However at some point we need to fill holes on D . It’s hard to know what the best route is in doing that. So do you go with a first line forward or take a chance on a D because we need one so bad
I am confident that the hardest part is looks good with two very good centres. It’s the top pairing D that will be very difficult to get.

 

[Eggtimer]

Check out my draft rankings. I have Svozil at #14, then Edvinsson/Lambos/Ceulemans/Heimosalmi at 18-21.

All of these players to me are comparable, and in the same tier of defense. I rank Svozil on top because -- like Edvinsson -- he projects as a shut-down defender but lacking high-end offense, but Svozil to me is more cerebral and less mistake-prone in his own zone. Lambos is the wild card, he has the upside to be the best D in the entire 2021 draft, but if things go wrong... well, this is a kid with a lot of risk and improvements to make. Ceulemans is probably second on this list in terms of offensive upside to Lambos, and Heimosalmi is right behind those two but has some physical limitations.

Lol , ok so if we got Hughes with our pick . Would you go with Ceuleman with theIslanders pick if he’s still there as we still need a RHD prospects , or so you go with a forward like Othmann or Pinelli or Raty ? So many variables to consider . I’m glad I don’t have to make those choices .