Speculation: 2021-22 Sharks Roster Discussion part X

[PattyLafontaine]

Yeah and how valuable in that cap space when DW immediately fills it with overpaid Vet UFAs this offseason because he and/or this org still think this team is a playoff hopeful team?

That is why not caring about the return for Hertl is impulsive and shortsighted. It assumes we will actually use the cap space for "all sorts of interesting opportunities" when DW has made no indication he has any desire or prerogative to do that.

I agree with you that the cap space is valuable, if and only if, DW and/or this organization actually intend to use it for interesting opportunities a la Arizona. If things are status quo with DW than that cap space is worthless in comparison to Hertl, and then adding insult to injury by only getting a late 1st and blah prospect for Hertl really starts to sting badly.

Doug Wilson should be fired based on your reasoning. I mean he should have been shitcanned after the 2014 debacle.

If you don’t trust your GM to make the right moves then he shouldn’t be the GM.

Fixing this team is easy. It just requires making the gaming theory decisions. Of course hockey relies the most of any sport on luck an intangibles, but those things tend take of themselves when you make strong decisions based on a mixture of analytics and reasoning.

The constant appeal to authority is ridiculous. It reminds me of how people deified Jose Mourinho despite all of his short comings and would not listen to the danger signals because he was one of the best managers in the world.

If you do not innovate and turnover your “roster” you become stale and you’ve already lost.

The Sharks are in the position they are in because of incompetent management.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

Yeah, but that’s pointless. You might as well just throw darts at a board. These analyses are to garner relative relationships in data sets.

You can’t just say well Thornton was PPG at 36 and therefore we need to see what Hertl will be at in his early thirties.

Thornton, Ovechkin, et al. who were great well into their 30s are Hall of Famers and re present as massive statistical outliers.

The point of the curve is to project what Hertl will be for each of the years. On an 8 year deal the Sharks get 2 years at 95% of Prime 1 year at 90 and then 85, 80, 72, 68, 60, 55. This also assumes no injuries which is also risky.

An algorithm can because to determine expected value, which is critical because you need to have a good idea what to expect over the lifetime of the contract.

Signing Hertl to an 8 year deal especially at 8.5-9.5 per is statistically an atrocious mathematical risk.


Part of what goes into calculate that risk is future value of that cap space measured against anticipated annual cap growth. Another factor be calculated is potential costs of waiving and eating dead space. And even another is the potential asset burden to rid one’s self of a bad contract.

I really should create the algorithm for this calculation and publish it.

Moneyball and analytics are just actuarial science recalibrated.

Where did I say they need to be HOFers? Simply that corrupting the data you want to see for players with long careers with data from guys who for whatever had shorter careers is kinda useless in determining where older players numbers dip.

 

[TreeLane]

We hope but there's not a lot of proof there yet. Hopefully 2 or 3 seasons from now we'll be calling him a flat out genius but none of his picks are major NHL contributors yet.

Ferraro? come on.

 

[TreeLane]

Nope! Clean them all out
It's a no brainer

DWJR responsible for drafting Eklund, Ferraro, Coe, Robins, Wiesblatt, Gushchin, Kniazev, Gaudreau and Bordeleau. No, it would be pretty stupid to fire him.

 

[Groo]

DWJR responsible for drafting Eklund, Ferraro, Coe, Robins, Wiesblatt, Gushchin, Kniazev, Gaudreau and Bordeleau. No, it would be pretty stupid to fire him.

You say that like that some sort of haul

 

[one2gamble]

You say that like that some sort of haul

It's a hell of a dice roll compared to how they normally draft.

 

[Groo]

It's a hell of a dice roll compared to how they normally draft.

Feel free to expand
Like the Goldobin pick?

 

[Hodge]

DWJR responsible for drafting Eklund, Ferraro, Coe, Robins, Wiesblatt, Gushchin, Kniazev, Gaudreau and Bordeleau. No, it would be pretty stupid to fire him.

We have no idea if any of these guys other than Ferraro will even have a NHL career. The only one who looks like a good bet is Eklund and if you're not drafting a NHL player at #7 overall you should be fired.

 

[Jargon]

If you can move Middleton for a 2nd, you do that and run. There are a million places to find Middletons (and we have, likely, internal replacements) -- if we're trying to speed up this rebuild, you trade replaceable players for high picks if you can any day of the week.

Very curious what happens with Hertl. I have to imagine if he signs, it's with the promise that Doug is actually going to start doing things this summer/next year insofar as adding/helping the team. With at least some of Kane's contract off the books and possibly a Vlasic buyout, you have some space to play with and add to the team.

For me, it's getting a little irritating watching a team in a half-state. If you're rebuilding, rebuild. if you're "re-tooling" then get some more tools. Waiting for years while your contracts expire while doing nothing is a weird, weird plan. I think Karlsson was suggestion the same thing. My guess is, whatever Hertl's decision is will dictate the direction.

 

[TreeLane]

We have no idea if any of these guys other than Ferraro will even have a NHL career. The only one who looks like a good bet is Eklund and if you're not drafting a NHL player at #7 overall you should be fired.

You don't know prospects. Many feel SJ's 2020 draft was one of the best, 2nd only to Carolina. I can basically guarantee Coe, Robins, Wiesblatt and Gushchin will have full NHL careers. Eklund will undoubtedly have a superb career of stardom in this league. These we're excellent picks. I watch prospects almost more than NHL.

 

[TreeLane]

You say that like that some sort of haul

Obviously you know nothing of prospects. Next.

 

[Hodge]

You don't know prospects. Many feel SJ's 2020 draft was one of the best, 2nd only to Carolina. I can basically guarantee Coe, Robins, Wiesblatt and Gushchin will have full NHL careers. Eklund will undoubtedly have a superb career of stardom in this league. These we're excellent picks. I watch prospects almost more than NHL.

Oh well if you can guarantee it then never mind. I stand corrected.

 

[TreeLane]

Oh well if you can guarantee it then never mind. I stand corrected.

"Basically guarantee" These are really strong prospects Pretty much all the ones I listed are featured in many Top 100 Prospect Lists. Have faith.

 

[hohosaregood]

Bro you're too high on Eklund. He's too small and weak to be effective in the NHL. Bust written all over his face.

 

[Kcoyote3]

You don't know prospects. Many feel SJ's 2020 draft was one of the best, 2nd only to Carolina. I can basically guarantee Coe, Robins, Wiesblatt and Gushchin will have full NHL careers. Eklund will undoubtedly have a superb career of stardom in this league. These we're excellent picks. I watch prospects almost more than NHL.

Basically guarantee is really funny. I think that we get 2 of Robins/Bordeleau/Coe/Wiesblatt/Gushchin to be effective every day forwards.

Something like

Gushchin as a 2nd line winger
Robins as a third line winger
Bordeleau as an NHL/AHL tweener
Coe/Wiesblatt AHLers

Would be a huge win for a single draft and much more realistic. Interchange the names at will.

 

[Kcoyote3]

Bro you're too high on Eklund. He's too small and weak to be effective in the NHL. Bust written all over his face.

This is unrealistic.

 

[Hodge]

"Basically guarantee" These are really strong prospects Pretty much all the ones I listed are featured in many Top 100 Prospect Lists. Have faith.

I implore you to look at a Top 100 prospects list from ten years ago and count how many of those players actually had a substantial (200+ game) NHL career. I doubt it would even be half of them on the average list.

 

[TreeLane]

I implore you to look at a Top 100 prospects list from ten years ago and count how many of those players actually had a substantial (200+ game) NHL career. I doubt it would even be half of them on the average list.

That's not the point of prospect lists. I implore you to understand why there is a draft. Why NHL teams covet homegrown talent. Why it's important to assess youth. I see that all you understand is " this guy is in the nhl, this guy isnt'" good and great but some people look deeper. Yeesh.

 

[TreeLane]

Basically guarantee is really funny. I think that we get 2 of Robins/Bordeleau/Coe/Wiesblatt/Gushchin to be effective every day forwards.

Something like

Gushchin as a 2nd line winger
Robins as a third line winger
Bordeleau as an NHL/AHL tweener
Coe/Wiesblatt AHLers

Would be a huge win for a single draft and much more realistic. Interchange the names at will.

Have you watched a single game from any of these prospects? I have seen many. Lot of talk on this board and very little knowledge.

 

[Kcoyote3]

Have you watched a single game from any of these prospects? I have seen many. Lot of talk on this board and very little knowledge.

 

[Hodge]

That's not the point of prospect lists. I implore you to understand why there is a draft. Why NHL teams covet homegrown talent. Why it's important to assess youth. I see that all you understand is " this guy is in the nhl, this guy isnt'" good and great but some people look deeper. Yeesh.

Lmao yeah really foolish of me to judge the success of prospects based on whether or not they end up playing in the NHL.

 

[Kcoyote3]

Have you watched a single game from any of these prospects? I have seen many. Lot of talk on this board and very little knowledge.

I was going to leave it at a winky face but maybe you'd be interested in reading so here are some full game reports I've posted over the last three months here. Yes I've watched all of those prospects multiple (like 10+ full games for some of them) this year:

Overview of 2020 kids:

Prospect Info: - Sharks Prospect Info & Discussion Thread XIX

Wiesblatt looks like a bust. Coe's value is probably at its highest right now. Going rate to ditch a contract like Simek's is a 2nd round pick and I'd rather give up either of those guys at this point than another 2nd. Moving Simek shouldn't require a sweetener. They can retain 50% and get a...

hfboards.mandatory.com

Eklund:

Prospect Info: - Sharks Prospect Info & Discussion Thread XVIII

Also no Ozzy tonight for PA. So there are absolutely no Sharks prospects I can watch. Sadness.

hfboards.mandatory.com

Ozzy:

Prospect Info: - Sharks Prospect Info & Discussion Thread XVIII

Feels like Laroque has barely played this period.

hfboards.mandatory.com

Prospect Info: - Sharks Prospect Info & Discussion Thread XIX

continue from the previous thread: Prospect Info: - Sharks Prospect Info & Discussion Thread XVIII

hfboards.mandatory.com

Robins:

Prospect Info: - Sharks Prospect Info & Discussion Thread XVIII

What exactly is he going to learn hockey wise doing that? He needs to start playing against better competition, so he knows what he needs to work on. Nothing. Staying another year is more about the college experience than it is about working on his craft. It's a justifiable reason to stay...

hfboards.mandatory.com

Gushchin:

Prospect Info: - Sharks Prospect Info & Discussion Thread XVIII

Nicklas Backstrom?! Oh baby, oh mama! Haha now any career path other than Backstrom will be a failure.

hfboards.mandatory.com

Prospect Info: - Sharks Prospect Info & Discussion Thread XVIII

When did I say Dahlen's progression wasn't impressive? Of course it was impressive since it got him to the NHL. But he's not a prospect anymore and doesn't look like he's going to be a useful player long term at this level. You don't have to. The anti-team at all costs perspective speaks for...

hfboards.mandatory.com

Prospect Info: - Sharks Prospect Info & Discussion Thread XVIII

Nothing really to add on Coe after the third and OT. He's great at anticipating play, cycle is fine, and he has good offensive instincts/positioning. It's just he's not very engaged defensively. He almost looks like Ovechkin with the floating, and explosiveness trying to push up ice when he gets...

hfboards.mandatory.com

Prospect Info: - Sharks Prospect Info & Discussion Thread XIX

If it was like "how many Ukrainian babies have you killed so far" then I could see it. That's something I'd say to my buddy if he were Russian, that's run of the mill shit talk. Or maybe my friend group is different..... lol

hfboards.mandatory.com

Coe:

Prospect Info: - Sharks Prospect Info & Discussion Thread XVIII

Nicklas Backstrom?! Oh baby, oh mama! Haha now any career path other than Backstrom will be a failure.

hfboards.mandatory.com

Prospect Info: - Sharks Prospect Info & Discussion Thread XVIII

Point was a bad skater going into the draft but he was properly developed into one of the best skaters in the league. Would never happen here He had all the skill in the world but size and skating concerns were a big issue for Point. I think the way to identify a Point is through the interview...

hfboards.mandatory.com

Prospect Info: - Sharks Prospect Info & Discussion Thread XVIII

Let me be perfectly clear. Only speaking for myself, I'm not trying to police any emotion or opinion you might have. You are free to believe whatever you want, you are free to post whatever you want. But you aren't entitled to not have your opinion or belief criticized. I feel like I've laid out...

hfboards.mandatory.com

There's a lot more throughout the past two prospect threads. Anyways, that doesn't mean my opinion is right at all. I'm just saying, I've watched them. A lot.

 

[DisbeliefInDW]

Hertl's contract is going to be massive, isn't it? If it isn't 9-9.5m with full NMC I'll be shocked.

 

[seroes]

That's not the point of prospect lists. I implore you to understand why there is a draft. Why NHL teams covet homegrown talent. Why it's important to assess youth. I see that all you understand is " this guy is in the nhl, this guy isnt'" good and great but some people look deeper. Yeesh.

Everyone here understands why teams want homegrown talent and cheap players on ELCs. We also understand that most of the prospects we have will be homegrown nothings. Even a great draft like 2020. Getting 3 players out of it will be fantastic, but expecting 5+ NHL regulars is just not realistic.

 

[DisbeliefInDW]

Also, lol at people thinking you can fire DW sr. but not Jr.

If one goes, the other HAS to go too. If you're gonna keep Jr you might as well keep Sr.