Speculation: 2021-22 Sharks Roster Discussion part X

[Doctor Soraluce]

He's scoring at a roughly 35-point pace - nothing special, but hardly embarrassing as a rookie. He does need to continue to improve in a number of areas to be anything more than a good third-line forward or a modest complementary top-six forward, but I certainly don't think he's been a disappointment (unless anyone was expecting him to replicate his Allsvenskan performance in the NHL, which would be on them).

He'll be cheap (I expect him to sign for about what Balcers did - $1.5M/2), so we have plenty of time to see if he improves or stalls.

That would be awesome if he signed at that rate. Sharks will need all the cheap contracts they can get especially if Hertl re-signs.

 

[timorous me]

It's pretty clear Bob knows what he's doing in dealing with young layers. Since being benched and subsequently injured, he's been far better than almost any time the last 2+ months. Actually made plays on the forecheck which was frankly shocking.

He has responded well the last two games after returning from his whiplash, but before the injury, he'd been up and down the lineup, in and out of the lineup, and we weren't seeing a response, so I wouldn't call this a success just yet. And the fact that he only played better after resting for a bit might mean it was more that he needed a physical break, not that Bob's handling of him was something special. We just don't know.

 

[Dicdonya]

1 mil is teeny? When any of the previous guys signed most here complained there was no "home town discount" of course ignoring how much the players pay in taxes in CA. So your "teeny ass discount" is actually about double what you're trying to say due to taxes. Mackinnon was an RFA when he signed correct? Not comparable. Talk to me about #1 centers who signed prior to UFA.

I am not arguing whether Hertl is or isnt a number 1 center. I am not arguing if Mack is comparable to Hertl. I am not arguing that Hertl could or could not get 10mil on the open market as a UFA.

All I was arguing is that according to YOU, 8x8 is a team friendly contract, then shortly thereafter in the same post you say 9 would be a steal of a contract, that makes no damn sense.

How can a contract be a steal, but also not be team friendly, since YOU said 8x8 is team friendly. Do you understand now what actually confused me about your post?


However now that that is out of the way, lets actually argue your other point which I happen to disagree with.

Hertl is not worth 10mil, even on the open market. There are only 6 centers making 10+mil in the NHL, of those 6 Hertl is only better/equal to Toews(and maybe Eichel if he never returns to form), and Toews only got that contract because he won a couple cups first, and it is considered massive overpayment at this point, and even at the time people were not happy with that AAV for him.

So 10+mil is out of the equation. Hertl has no argument for making 10+mil based on his current or past production, play, and health. Any team giving him 10 mil will be instantly laughed at for overpaying Hertl by at least 1 million.

Lets look then at 9+mil centers. Only 3 of those. Hertl is not better than Malkin, when Seguin singed his contract he was better than Hertl, even if Hertl may be better now. So that leaves Backstrom. He signed as a UFA, at 9.2 mil, and was FAR more productive than Hertl in his career leading up to that point.

So given all that, even 9mil would be a bit pricey for Hertl, however we all know GMs love to give out silly contracts to UFA's, so I would not be shocked if Hertl made 9mil on the open market.

In reality though, we are talking about an oft injured, one time 70+ pt, two way center. 8mil would be about right for him if you trust his injuries are behind him. Heck how can he argue for more than that, when 32yo Logan Couture is currently outproducing Hertl right now, and makes 8mil. I think Hertl is better than Couture, but I also think Couture is overpaid by about 1 mil, so 8mil for Hertl makes sense.

 

[Cas]

I'm hoping Hertl comes in at around Landeskog's contract ($7M/8+NMC). They're not dissimilar in value - leaders and near-PPG forwards, same age to the month when their contracts start.

 

[Alaskanice]

I'm hoping Hertl comes in at around Landeskog's contract ($7M/8+NMC). They're not dissimilar in value - leaders and near-PPG forwards, same age to the month when their contracts start.

I also hope he understands accepting less will help us get others. It’s a pipe dream but not unheard of.

 

[Hodge]

I'm hoping Hertl comes in at around Landeskog's contract ($7M/8+NMC). They're not dissimilar in value - leaders and near-PPG forwards, same age to the month when their contracts start.

Why should Hertl take a cent less than Couture? Hertl gets more ice time playing the same position on the same team and he has consistently scored more goals and points than Couture for the last four seasons. The salary cap has also gone up since Couture signed his contract. Landeskog is strictly a winger and therefore an irrelevant comparable.

 

[TheBeard]

Why should Hertl take a cent less than Couture? Hertl gets more ice time playing the same position on the same team and he has consistently scored more goals and points than Couture for the last four seasons. The salary cap has also gone up since Couture signed his contract. Landeskog is strictly a winger and therefore an irrelevant comparable.

Agreed (for once). It would be swell, but why would Hertl do that?

 

[sharski]

in b4 shitstorm once everyone finds out DW just did a Replace All on the Tavares contract and sent it to Hertl

$13M AAV here we come baby

DW: "We see Tomáš as a top-5 player in this league. He's earned that respect and we look forward to continuing to build this team around him for years to come."

 

[LadyStanley]

Primer on next week's big day

 

[Hodge]

in b4 shitstorm once everyone finds out DW just did a Replace All on the Tavares contract and sent it to Hertl

$13M AAV here we come baby

DW: "We see Tomáš as a top-5 player in this league. He's earned that respect and we look forward to continuing to build this team around him for years to come."

Remember when DW put out a press release thanking Tavares and Pat Brisson for essentially using the Sharks to get more money out of Toronto? God what a loser.

 

[Chinaski89]

Tomas wants to be here and the team wants him here.
I like the sound of that.

I personally don’t. Hertl is temperamental and when things aren’t falling into place he gives half the effort. I don’t think he’s worth an 8x8 contract at all. Not for the Sharks at least. Maybe on a contender.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

He has responded well the last two games after returning from his whiplash, but before the injury, he'd been up and down the lineup, in and out of the lineup, and we weren't seeing a response, so I wouldn't call this a success just yet. And the fact that he only played better after resting for a bit might mean it was more that he needed a physical break, not that Bob's handling of him was something special. We just don't know.

He was placed back up on the 2nd line. Bob doesn't do that unless they've talked repeatedly and Dahlen has proven in practice that he understands what is expected of him and shown it to the coaches. Maybe the rest helped him as far as a mental break. It's not so much fatigue of the body that causes a player to drop off when a rookie, it's fatigue of the mind. Having to give a consistent effort each shift of each game. All the stuff you hear the coaches talk about. It's not just coach speak, it's really what they mean.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

I personally don’t. Hertl is temperamental and when things aren’t falling into place he gives half the effort. I don’t think he’s worth an 8x8 contract at all. Not for the Sharks at least. Maybe on a contender.

I have to agree about the temperamental thing and stated this previously. I of course disagree with the 8x8 deal though.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

I suppose it depends where these proposals are materializing from. The problem is that Hertl on an 8 year 9 mil deal is a bad value for anyone.

People get wrapped up in what others earn but the reality is that you are giving 9 per for 8 years for years that aren't even Prime years. There's not terrible drop off from 27-29 but once you cross 29.5 years the drop tends to come fast and even more quickly when you've had serious knee injuries to each knee.

It's always interesting that few people take into account production per dollar and cap flexibility into their equations on what a team should do.

Hertl is a productive player but you are getting poor production per dollar, with a higher than average change of injury/early retirement/losing a step.

if this was 8 for 9 when Hertl was 23 or 24 then great sign me up.

A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)

How do NHL players age? When do they peak? How quickly do they decline? Questions about player aging in the NHL have been debated for years, and an incredible amount of research has already been do…

hockey-graphs.com

My problem with these graphs is that it is "average" of all NHL players. I would like to see how these look in more defined parameters. How about top 6 centers or forwards that play 800 games? There's a lot of bottom 6ers dragging down the numbers in these graphs with such wide parameters. Maybe a parameter for min avg salary or cap hit % would help show a more true representation? IE a guy like Seto who had a few good years as a young man would skew these results.

 

[PattyLafontaine]

My problem with these graphs is that it is "average" of all NHL players. I would like to see how these look in more defined parameters. How about top 6 centers or forwards that play 800 games? There's a lot of bottom 6ers dragging down the numbers in these graphs with such wide parameters. Maybe a parameter for min avg salary or cap hit % would help show a more true representation? IE a guy like Seto who had a few good years as a young man would skew these results.

I'm sure that could be fleshed out. The problem you run into with specifics as lack of sample size, which creates large deviation errors, and likely would nullify most of the findings.

 

[Bizz]

If the Ducks can get a 2nd rounder and a prospect for Josh f***ing Manson, then Middleton should net us at least 3 2nds.

 

[Hodge]

It's always interesting that few people take into account production per dollar and cap flexibility into their equations on what a team should do.

Exactly. This is why I don't really care what the Sharks get in return for Hertl because the value of a late 1st and mediocre prospect is dwarfed by the value of $8-9M of cap space for the next eight seasons. Every ounce of long term flexibility they can open up creates all sorts of interesting opportunities to improve the team down the line.

 

[Alaskanice]

If the Ducks can get a 2nd rounder and a prospect for Josh f***ing Manson, then Middleton should net us at least 3 2nds.

The Ducks also retained 50% of his salary.

 

[Anomie2029]

If the Ducks can get a 2nd rounder and a prospect for Josh f***ing Manson, then Middleton should net us at least 3 2nds.

Let's be realistic here - Manson is an established Dman, whilst Middleton is not.
Middleton should be worth more, but he simply isn't in this league.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Let's be realistic here - Manson is an established Dman, whilst Middleton is not.
Middleton should be worth more, but he simply isn't in this league.

I mean...yeah? Manson is a proven bottom-pairing d-man. If you are a contending team only focusing on this season, that's more valuable than a question mark in Middleton.

That's why trading someone like Middleton is difficult. Either side has the potential to lose; moreover, since he potentially could be an RFA this isn't really a deadline-type move.

 

[Hodge]

I mean...yeah? Manson is a proven bottom-pairing d-man. If you are a contending team only focusing on this season, that's more valuable than a question mark in Middleton.

That's why trading someone like Middleton is difficult. Either side has the potential to lose; moreover, since he potentially could be an RFA this isn't really a deadline-type move.

Manson's better than that. He's a solid #4 defenseman who used to be a legit top pairing guy. Middleton has played 55 career NHL games at age 26. It's a ludicrous comparison.

 

[DisbeliefInDW]

Shouldn't even be thinking about trading Middleton anyways. Manson is better but not by much. Both are 4/5's.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

I'm sure that could be fleshed out. The problem you run into with specifics as lack of sample size, which creates large deviation errors, and likely would nullify most of the findings.

From my perspective the numbers as it relates to high end players with long careers are already nullified due to polluting the findings with irrelevant participants.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

Exactly. This is why I don't really care what the Sharks get in return for Hertl because the value of a late 1st and mediocre prospect is dwarfed by the value of $8-9M of cap space for the next eight seasons. Every ounce of long term flexibility they can open up creates all sorts of interesting opportunities to improve the team down the line.

They already have flexibility coming. Burns only has 4 years left correct? Couture 6 and Vlasic 6? Vlasic can be bought out at a better rate after next season and sent to the minors in 2 more seasons? I think Labanc will be moved as will Simek this off season. If not they both have only 2 more seasons I think? Bonino and Reimer (2mil ea) will come off the books after next season. So in 4 years with no cap increase they get 19mil in cap space back. Factor in 9 to 10 mil for Timos new deal so an additional 4mil (at worst) on top of the 6 he makes now. Hertl's extra 3.5 mil (9mil avg). I can't see Ferraro getting more than 4 on his next contract despite his ice time. As much as I love Barbie I think he's getting traded. Hope I'm wrong.

So in 4 years they have 7.5 mil additional cap space available over the next 4 years. That's with no cap increase and not moving or buying out Vlasic or moving Couture. Frankly I would bet that Burns gets traded this off season or next at the latest unless SJ works some voodoo and is 4-5 seed playoff team next season. So that space may be available sooner than 4 years. None of the prospects that might garner a big raise will need one for another 3 seasons min. Hill is a wild card. If he turns into. starter next season he's getting paid. Hopefully not more than 5 but who knows. So there's quite a bit of flexibility there depending on who re-signs and for how much. They are a team that plans to spend to the cap and wants to be competitive for a playoff spot despite what many here want. so I don't see them sitting around with unused cap space.

If my math is wrong please feel free to show where.

On the probably unrealistically optimistic side maybe the coaching staff gets a timo style turn around out of Labanc next season he starts producing at a 40-50 point pace again. I doubt it but some here wanted to use Timo as a sweetener to dump vlasic. So thankfully this board isn't in charge of running the actual team. Maybe Merkley find his stride and is a 20 min, 30-40 point D-man next season. Maybe Gregor or Leonard or one of the non-eklund prospects find their game and is a 20 goal scorer. Maybe Dahlen puts on 15 pounds of muscle and turns into a 25 goal scorer. There's always a break out player or 2, it's just hard to figure out who that might be. At this point I think 3C might be the most important position to fill. Need a guy who can put up some points. An internal option for 4C already exists even if they have to cycle thru guys depending on who's playing well. Between Weatherby, Pedersen and Reedy they likely have that spot covered. Bottom 6 wingers are set for a while with all the guys they have. D is fine with the guys they have if Merkley becomes a legit NHLer. So they really need a top 6 winger, maybe 2? and a 3c.

 

[tiburon12]

Exactly. This is why I don't really care what the Sharks get in return for Hertl because the value of a late 1st and mediocre prospect is dwarfed by the value of $8-9M of cap space for the next eight seasons. Every ounce of long term flexibility they can open up creates all sorts of interesting opportunities to improve the team down the line.

Would you same the same thing about the Avs and MacKinnon? He'll be 28 when his next deal starts. If you're the avs, do you sign him to 8 years at big money or let him walk?

obv I'm not comparing MacK to Hertl, i'm just trying to understand your logic. I'm of the understanding that you don't think signing any player after age 26 to a long contract is a good idea