2020 Roster Speculation Part 3: Off-season Edition

[flashsabre]

I'm not sure what Arizona cap space is like but they desperately need to recoup some picks and prospects...

maybe we can somehow package a cap dump (Okposo) with some picks and prospects for a goalie upgrade and cap space?

Kuemper for Hutton, Okposo, Mittelstadt, 2021 1st, 2021 2nd, 2022 2nd.

I'm not great at working out values for picks and cap space but I'm just wondering if there might be some kind of deal to be had with them since they seem to have 2 starting goalies at $4.5 each and a huge needs for picks/prospects that we could leverage...

Maybe we even keep Hutton in this scenario and stash him in the minors...?

And then resign Kahun cheap to take Okposo's spot.

And keep trying to flip a RHD for a LHD.

Their owner told the GM to shed $15 million. They are at the cap. Taking on salary is a non starter

 

[Gras]

I'm not sure what Arizona cap space is like but they desperately need to recoup some picks and prospects...

maybe we can somehow package a cap dump (Okposo) with some picks and prospects for a goalie upgrade and cap space?

Kuemper for Hutton, Okposo, Mittelstadt, 2021 1st, 2021 2nd, 2022 2nd.

I'm not great at working out values for picks and cap space but I'm just wondering if there might be some kind of deal to be had with them since they seem to have 2 starting goalies at $4.5 each and a huge needs for picks/prospects that we could leverage...

Maybe we even keep Hutton in this scenario and stash him in the minors...?

And then resign Kahun cheap to take Okposo's spot.

And keep trying to flip a RHD for a LHD.

Miller/Montour + Sweetener for Raanta + Oesterle is where I fall, lets AZ shed about 1.775 mil in cap.

Bury Hutton

Puts us right to the cap right now, if we can find someone like Det, NJ, or OTT to take on Hutton if we send a pick or prospect we'd get 1.6mil back in cap.

 

[TehDoak]

I'm not sure what Arizona cap space is like but they desperately need to recoup some picks and prospects...

maybe we can somehow package a cap dump (Okposo) with some picks and prospects for a goalie upgrade and cap space?

Kuemper for Hutton, Okposo, Mittelstadt, 2021 1st, 2021 2nd, 2022 2nd.

I'm not great at working out values for picks and cap space but I'm just wondering if there might be some kind of deal to be had with them since they seem to have 2 starting goalies at $4.5 each and a huge needs for picks/prospects that we could leverage...

Maybe we even keep Hutton in this scenario and stash him in the minors...?

And then resign Kahun cheap to take Okposo's spot.

And keep trying to flip a RHD for a LHD.

They are the team most over the cap at the moment.

Their owner told the GM to shed $15 million. They are at the cap. Taking on salary is a non starter

Arizona does want to scuttle salary and yes, they are "over" the cap but remember, they have 5.275M LTIR space for Hossa.

My offer to them would be Hutton at 50% retained (1.375M in cash and cap) + a mid round pick (4th-6th range) for Raanta (4.25M in cap space, but only 2.0M in cash)

They'd save 625k in real cash and 2.9-ish in cap space for Arizona. Buffalo would be adding 2.9M in cap, so likely it'd be done in concert with a move to move a d-man.

I'd obviously give up more for Kuemper, but the retention on Hutton would have to drop.

 

[Djp]

Kuemper for Hutton, Okposo, Mittelstadt, 2021 1st, 2021 2nd, 2022 2nd.

That is god awful bad.

Buffalo isn’t desperate for cap space to unload Okposo.

Trading Mitts, Okposo, a 1st and 2nd I’d be aiming fir Kane.

I'm not great at working out values for picks and cap space but I'm just wondering if there might be some kind of deal to be had with them since they seem to have 2 starting goalies at $4.5 each and a huge needs for picks/prospects that we could leverage...

Maybe we even keep Hutton in this scenario and stash him in the minors...?

And then resign Kahun cheap to take Okposo's spot.

And keep trying to flip a RHD for a LHD.

Arizona has cap troubles.



They have $84.3M in 13/7/2 and Hossa. Hossa can go on LTIR but Arizona has only one ELC to use his space.
Thry have 5 UFA dmrn next summer.

Buffalo has potentially more ELCs to use Hossa LTIR.

They n a deal buffalo coukd take Hossa back.

Assuming 4 could be sent down and called up against Hossa cap space buffalo could do a

Kuemper + Hossa + Oesterle 4.5+ 5.275+1.4 =11.175
For
Hutton 2.75 +Miller 3.875=6.545

76.15 with Dahlin and Joki sent down
76.745 with Keumper/Oesterle for Miller/Hutton 5.9 in 6. 545 out. Net gain of .625
5.275 with Hossa puts it at
82.2

They could trade Montour for something less ot had Arizona retain $1M on Hossa.

On Arizona if thry retain $1M on Hossa they end up.. 12.175-6.545=5.63 off of 84.3 fir about 78.7.

 

[Gras]

That is god awful bad.

Buffalo isn’t desperate for cap space to unload Okposo.

Trading Mitts, Okposo, a 1st and 2nd I’d be aiming fir Kane.



Arizona has cap troubles.



They have $84.3M in 13/7/2 and Hossa. Hossa can go on LTIR but Arizona has only one ELC to use his space.
Thry have 5 UFA dmrn next summer.

Buffalo has potentially more ELCs to use Hossa LTIR.

They n a deal buffalo coukd take Hossa back.

Assuming 4 could be sent down and called up against Hossa cap space buffalo could do a

Kuemper + Hossa + Oesterle 4.5+ 5.275+1.4 =11.175
For
Hutton 2.75 +Miller 3.875=6.545

76.15 with Dahlin and Joki sent down
76.745 with Keumper/Oesterle for Miller/Hutton 5.9 in 6. 545 out. Net gain of .625
5.275 with Hossa puts it at
82.2

They could trade Montour for something less ot had Arizona retain $1M on Hossa.

On Arizona if thry retain $1M on Hossa they end up.. 12.175-6.545=5.63 off of 84.3 fir about 78.7.

If insurance is paying Hossa's salary then the Pegula's might got for it

 

[Djp]

If insurance is paying Hossa's salary then the Pegula's might got for it

His salary is only $1M in actual money

 

[joshjull]

so much for that internal cap rumor

The understanding was actual salaries in the low to mid 70s with cap hits near the upper limit.

As of right now.

Actual salaries —> 75.575mil
Cap hits ———-> 78mil.

Pretty close to the prediction but things can change with more time left for moves.


I’m still trying to wrap my head around the idea we brought in Staal, Hall, Eakins, re-signed Girgs and our top RFAs and are still in decent shape with the cap and salary outlay.

 

[Djp]

Kylington RFA~$1M
Rittich 2.75
Ryan 3.125/Bennet 2.55
6.875M/$6.3

For
Montour 3.85
Hutton 2.75
6.6M

 

[joshjull]

Dahlin taking that next step also requires the coach to unleash him in the neutral zone.

Is this related to the theories some had that Krueger wouldn’t let him carry the puck into the NZ or he had to dump it in?

Dahlin struggled because he was asked to focus more on his defensive game. He got less ice time 5v5 than the year before as well. But when we were down coming into the 3rd period Krueger used his “offensive package”. Which included Dahlin playing more than usual 5v5 and having a green light to attack.

Dahlin’s issues were a combination of a lot of things but were mostly about growing pains. He eventually started adapting to the task Krueger gave him and his ice time time went up as he did.

Dahlin’s season was a year of growth that he will benefit from down the road.

 

[Der Jaeger]

While I want us to balance the handedness of the D, I think the majority of people are vastly underrating how much of an impact Dahlin will have on our entire defensive unit if he takes another big step forward, as 1OA picks tend to do. That entire unit will go from average to a real strength if he takes a big leap. It took Eichel until his D+4 season to really become elite and drive play on a more consistent basis, but hopefully this extra time off will allow Dahlin to physically mature even more, perhaps his big leap occurs this year as a result.

what’s a “build up?”

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

This teams D outlook would look fantastic if Samuelssons play is stellar and can lock down a top 6 spot out of camp and allow us to move a Miller or Montour.

Dahlin-Risto
McCabe-Joker
Samuelsson-Miller/Montour


There are dmen who surprise every year making bluelines at 20,21,22 etc so wouldn't be super crazy to see a Samuelsson earn a spot. Or better yet trade Montour for a 2nd+3rd and then flip that 3rd for McNabb+2nd...turn Montour into 2 2nds and add McNabb.

Swapping out Montour for picks and bringing in McNabb+an asset actually saves us ~1.3 mil too.

 

[joshjull]

Krueger is making him earn it by showing he can be solid defensively. It looks like he took a big step by getting bigger and stronger in the offseason.

Yep. A well round Dahlin strong at both ends of the ice is a dominant minute eating Dahlin.

 

[joshjull]

what’s a “build up?”

If I had to guess its someone starting the rush and supporting it up the ice. QB’ing it up the ice In their terms.

 

[sabremike]

How is such awful unglaphobia tolerated in this day and age? Shameful!

 

[Der Jaeger]

If I had to guess its someone starting the rush and supporting it up the ice. QB’ing it up the ice In their terms.

Ok, transition puck support.

nerds and their analytics

 

[Fezzy126]

what’s a “build up?”

If I had to guess its someone starting the rush and supporting it up the ice. QB’ing it up the ice In their terms.

This is my take as well.

I do think Krueger pulled in the reigns on the D... a bit. Certainly not anywhere near as much as the media is letting on though.

2019
Controlled Entries/60: 3.84
Controlled Exits/60: 13.72

2020
Controlled Entries/60: 3.21
Controlled Exits/60: 11.22

Is there a difference? Sure, but certainly not the numbers you'd expect from someone that is explicitly instructed to stay on their own side of the red line. But I think a big part of the discrepancy here is the 'unlearning' of Housley's system, and also trying to commit his system to muscle memory by simplifying the game. That's not just the defensemen, but the forwards too since they would have to seamlessly cover for the D.

Hopefully now that the team has had a year in Ralph's system we see more coordinated 5-man attacks with the defensemen jumping into the play more regularly.

 

[Sabresruletheschool]

I wonder what would Buffalo have to give up to Arizona to trade Okposo and Hutton + for Kessel and Raanta? The cap works for both sides. Would the +'s be to much? Would it be worth it to us?

 

[Djp]

I wonder what would Buffalo have to give up to Arizona to trade Okposo and Hutton + for Kessel and Raanta? The cap works for both sides. Would the +'s be to much? Would it be worth it to us?

Arizona wants to unload salary. This goes nowhere.

 

[Buffaloed]

Ok, transition puck support.

nerds and their analytics

I remember when the dmen would pinch, now they activate.

 

[Blitz]

I wonder what would Buffalo have to give up to Arizona to trade Okposo and Hutton + for Kessel and Raanta? The cap works for both sides. Would the +'s be to much? Would it be worth it to us?

Kessel already blocked a trade here.. Don't hold your breath... That's also $8.75M going out & $11.1M coming in (which we cant swing if you assume our ELCs make bonus')... And you want to add? I want Raanta, but Phil can rot in the desert as far as Im concerned.

 

[Blitz]

Going 'off the board' here, but trying to think of a way to wiggle out of KOs cap-hit early w/o incurring his horrible buyout numbers...

To
RW Kyle Okposo ($6M UFA in '23)
G Jonas Johansson ($700K RFA in '21)

To
G Martin Jones ($5.75M UFA in '24)
RW Steph Noesen ($925K UFA in '21)

Sharks have lost all faith in Jones, but for some reason are reluctant to use a buyout on him. Whether it's a cash flow issue or just principle they are stuck paying over $7M for 2 goalies they don't love and don't fit long-term. Both teams are cap-strapped w/ $3M-ish in space remaining. Sharks get a young controllable tender, Sabres can move an unmovable contract that literally is pointless to even try to buyout for one that offer better flexibility. Play Jones as backup for this year and then, if he doesn't turn things around you expose him or buy him out when we need the added space next year.

Jones' buyout numbers:
Martin Jones Contract Buyout Details - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Just throwing sh#t at the wall...

Edit: also keeping in mind that our starting goaltender after this year or next is likely on an ELC which makes the dead cap space from Jones buyout a little more tolerable.

 

[Reddawg]

Change JJ to Hutton and I’m sold. Jones can be the backup for four years of cheap tending from Ullmark and/or UPL.

 

[MillerTime]

Kessel already blocked a trade here.. Don't hold your breath... That's also $8.75M going out & $11.1M coming in (which we cant swing if you assume our ELCs make bonus')... And you want to add? I want Raanta, but Phil can rot in the desert as far as Im concerned.

Not that I want him but when did Kessel block a trade to Buffalo? I have never heard such a thing. He blocked going to the Wild, is that what you are thinking of?

 

[SundherDome]

How does pilut's deal work? Do they just not sign him to a deal?

 

[Reddawg]

How does pilut's deal work? Do they just not sign him to a deal?

All we had to do was give him a QO (which we did) to hang onto his rights. He’s under no obligation to sign it and we’re under no obligation to get him signed, as long as the QO went out. We locked up his rights for another 3 years with the QO, his KHL deal is two years.