2020 Roster Speculation Part 3: Off-season Edition

[OkimLom]

Toews at $10.5M against the cap is a hard pass for me.

Keith at $5.5M per fits within the cap quite nicely.

It's just a matter of preference. I'm not against Keith myself, so if that was who they targeted, I wouldn't lose sleep over it.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Toews at $10.5M against the cap is a hard pass for me.

Keith at $5.5M per fits within the cap quite nicely.

I'd gladly take Keith or Toews at their cap hits. Reminds me of the moves teams used to do in the 80's and 90's. As players got older, they moved to teams with shots at winning Cups (Pens, Rangers, Wings).

Would be some tough movements of players, but Keith on the second pair behind Dahlin, and Toews as the 2C, would be pretty incredible.

 

[Jim Bob]

I'd gladly take Keith or Toews at their cap hits. Reminds me of the moves teams used to do in the 80's and 90's. As players got older, they moved to teams with shots at winning Cups (Pens, Rangers, Wings).

Would be some tough movements of players, but Keith on the second pair behind Dahlin, and Toews as the 2C, would be pretty incredible.

I don't see how they are fitting Toews @ $10.5M on this roster.

If we can go into a way back machine and not sign Okposo and Skinner, then sure.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I don't see how they are fitting Toews @ $10.5M on this roster.

If we can go into a way back machine and not sign Okposo and Skinner, then sure.

Chicago looks like they are a full rebuild. Okposo and Ristolainen plus futures for Toews. Okposo has a 15 team NTC, I doubt Chicago would be on it, since he's from Minnesota.

I'd move 2021 and 2022 1sts, and probably Mittelstadt, to make it happen.

 

[Jim Bob]

Chicago looks like they are a full rebuild. Okposo and Ristolainen plus futures for Toews. Okposo has a 15 team NTC, I doubt Chicago would be on it, since he's from Minnesota.

I'd move 2021 and 2022 1sts, and probably Mittelstadt, to make it happen.

I doubt Toews OKs that trade.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Toews / Kane make ZERO sense in a salary cap world.

Keith does but it would depend on the return. I'd target something like Montour or Miller plus futures.

 

[OkimLom]

I don't see how they are fitting Toews @ $10.5M on this roster.

If we can go into a way back machine and not sign Okposo and Skinner, then sure.

I'd try to have them retain a percentage of salary even if I had to take lesser assets or had to give up a 1st round pick to do so.

 

[HogtownSabresfan]

We should be seriously scoping Kane right now with a deal that starts with Reinhart. Montour or Miller goes the other way to even cap and then we start adding until it gets done. They take what they want other than Cozens, UPL, Dahlin, Eichel, Oloffson and Hall. We lose Quinn, we lose him. Throw in next year's first UNPROTECTED and let's roll the dice.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

We should be seriously scoping Kane right now with a deal that starts with Reinhart. Montour or Miller goes the other way to even cap and then we start adding until it gets done. They take what they want other than Cozens, UPL, Dahlin, Eichel, Oloffson and Hall. We lose Quinn, we lose him. Throw in next year's first UNPROTECTED and let's roll the dice.

 

[The Red Helmet]

I kind a agree with him. Please lay out your argument the other way instead of just posting a rolling eyes emoji. How long do we expect Reinhart to sign for? Kane has 3 years left on his deal and I would expect him even at his age to be a far superior player over Reinhart during that strectch. Also, we would easily have the best top 6 forward group in the league. As a Sabres fan who hasn't seen much to be excited about in the last 13 years, this at the very least would be one of the funnest teams to watch in Sabres history. Those star forwards with Dahlin on the backend? Pa-lease, that would be quite a show.

 

[StlSwedes]

So about the Sabres using analytics more...

I find the analytics crowd for hockey endlessly annoying and sometimes irrelevant. Wow, a good team has good analytics, tell me more. Oh, a bad team has bad analytics, tell me more. Wow, such helpful insight. Something tells me a lot of the stats guru's never actually played on competitive sports teams and are lacking in the overall understanding of team building, human resources, etc.

The analytics and sabermetrics crowds seem to forget that the A's didn't win the world series, many teams use analytics and fail and there is more to sports than just isolating numbers for players. The whole human element is important too. We aren't robots. There is nothing more true about human beings than change. Nothing is static and these players are always changing. But endless analytics pigeonhole players as static variables forever destined to be the player the numbers say they are....

If you have ever met or been friends with NHL players in real life (or professional athletes) where you can have can have candid conversations with them, you realize they are people and life bleeds over into their profession. Just like all of us, and this can have an impact on them. Stats give you a piece of information, but it is just a single piece of information. It can help tell a story but you should not use the stats to tell the story. Or you will get it wrong.

/End rant

 

[SundherDome]

you're*

If you're gonna be a dick to someone else, at least have your grammar-school basics on point.

Going*

Lol I wasn't being a dick to the poster. He was creating a problem that most likely won't exist, using projections that are very generous. Making assumptions that a player is going to get paid 8 million per year when he has never played an NHL game is silly. Assuming a bottom 6 forward is going to double his salary is also silly.

I do appreciate you interjecting a completely useless post though !!!

 

[truthbluth]

I find the analytics crowd for hockey endlessly annoying and sometimes irrelevant. Wow, a good team has good analytics, tell me more. Oh, a bad team has bad analytics, tell me more. Wow, such helpful insight. Something tells me a lot of the stats guru's never actually played on competitive sports teams and are lacking in the overall understanding of team building, human resources, etc.

The analytics and sabermetrics crowds seem to forget that the A's didn't win the world series, many teams use analytics and fail and there is more to sports than just isolating numbers for players. The whole human element is important too. We aren't robots. There is nothing more true about human beings than change. Nothing is static and these players are always changing. But endless analytics pigeonhole players as static variables forever destined to be the player the numbers say they are....

If you have ever met or been friends with NHL players in real life (or professional athletes) where you can have can have candid conversations with them, you realize they are people and life bleeds over into their profession. Just like all of us, and this can have an impact on them. Stats give you a piece of information, but it is just a single piece of information. It can help tell a story but you should not use the stats to tell the story. Or you will get it wrong.

/End rant

The A’s didn't win, but every MLB team that came after them used and built on Beane and Deposta's work. Risto isn't bad because of the Sabres, the Sabres are bad because of Risto. Math can be used to account for the effect of playing on a bad team.

Whether or not someone who is good at math is also good at sports is irrelevant. I played competitive sports through college, yet I'm fully capable of understanding expected goals for percentage (xGF%), and that looking at those numbers can distinguish the unarguably good (O'Reilly, Reinhart) from the unarguably bad (Risto, Sobotka).

As to whether or not you can measure locker room impacts from on ice performance, it's pretty simple. It doesn't matter. On ice is what matters. Either the team is better off on ice with you, or they're not. It really doesn't matter if you are well liked. And there are certainly things that the analytics community hasn't figured out how to measure yet, but they will.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I doubt Toews OKs that trade.

Depends on the sales pitch. Toews coming to a team with young superstars might be tempting. At least more tempting than riding out a rebuild.

 

[StlSwedes]

The A’s didn't win, but every MLB team that came after them used and built on Beane and Deposta's work. Risto isn't bad because of the Sabres, the Sabres are bad because of Risto. Math can be used to account for the effect of playing on a bad team.

Whether or not someone who is good at math is also good at sports is irrelevant. I played competitive sports through college, yet I'm fully capable of understanding expected goals for percentage (xGF%), and that looking at those numbers can distinguish the unarguably good (O'Reilly, Reinhart) from the unarguably bad (Risto, Sobotka).

As to whether or not you can measure locker room impacts from on ice performance, it's pretty simple. It doesn't matter. On ice is what matters. Either the team is better off on ice with you, or they're not. It really doesn't matter if you are well liked. And there are certainly things that the analytics community hasn't figured out how to measure yet, but they will.

So the real life of an athlete means nothing on performance? For example, you have triplets at home and are missing sleep. Means nothing on performance?

 

[Shootica]

I find the analytics crowd for hockey endlessly annoying and sometimes irrelevant. Wow, a good team has good analytics, tell me more. Oh, a bad team has bad analytics, tell me more. Wow, such helpful insight. Something tells me a lot of the stats guru's never actually played on competitive sports teams and are lacking in the overall understanding of team building, human resources, etc.

The analytics and sabermetrics crowds seem to forget that the A's didn't win the world series, many teams use analytics and fail and there is more to sports than just isolating numbers for players. The whole human element is important too. We aren't robots. There is nothing more true about human beings than change. Nothing is static and these players are always changing. But endless analytics pigeonhole players as static variables forever destined to be the player the numbers say they are....

If you have ever met or been friends with NHL players in real life (or professional athletes) where you can have can have candid conversations with them, you realize they are people and life bleeds over into their profession. Just like all of us, and this can have an impact on them. Stats give you a piece of information, but it is just a single piece of information. It can help tell a story but you should not use the stats to tell the story. Or you will get it wrong.

/End rant

Also, team analytics departments develop proprietary metrics that are not visible to us. And they're likely better than what we have. Jason Nightingale isn't getting paid big money to sit around in his office and pull a Corsi number off the internet when asked.

I'm not saying that the Sabres have found some way of twisting things so that Risto and Montour are stars. But it really grinds my gears when people point to one rudimentary expected goals metric and declare a player to be good or bad. And I say that as someone who finds analytics and data analysis really interesting.

 

[SundherDome]

Depends on the sales pitch. Toews coming to a team with young superstars might be tempting. At least more tempting than riding out a rebuild.

I'm pretty sure he came out and said he was pissed they are rebuilding and wasn't happy they moved out vets.

 

[StlSwedes]

Also, team analytics departments develop proprietary metrics that are not visible to us. And they're likely better than what we have. Jason Nightingale isn't getting paid big money to sit around in his office and pull a Corsi number off the internet when asked.

I'm not saying that the Sabres have found some way of twisting things so that Risto and Montour are stars. But it really grinds my gears when people point to one rudimentary expected goals metric and declare a player to be good or bad. And I say that as someone who finds analytics and data analysis really interesting.

I think analytics can be important and relevant when used with context. But I am tired of making a snap judgements of players based solely on analytics.

For example, trade ideas get thrown around, and someone posts corsi numbers and immediately people either dismiss or agree on a player based on this alone. Which ignores so much more of the picture.

 

[Beerz]

NHL offseason by the numbers: Which teams have improved the most (and least)?

Yeeeeah. Sure, this is an on paper calculation. But I think it shows just how silly it is to favor big splashy moves over quiet solid ones.

Hall and Staal are great.....we still need to resolve the ongoing issues with this team.

It doesn't show anything..and proves nothing. It's a gimmick.

 

[OkimLom]

We should be seriously scoping Kane right now with a deal that starts with Reinhart. Montour or Miller goes the other way to even cap and then we start adding until it gets done. They take what they want other than Cozens, UPL, Dahlin, Eichel, Oloffson and Hall. We lose Quinn, we lose him. Throw in next year's first UNPROTECTED and let's roll the dice.

I kind a agree with him. Please lay out your argument the other way instead of just posting a rolling eyes emoji. How long do we expect Reinhart to sign for? Kane has 3 years left on his deal and I would expect him even at his age to be a far superior player over Reinhart during that strectch. Also, we would easily have the best top 6 forward group in the league. As a Sabres fan who hasn't seen much to be excited about in the last 13 years, this at the very least would be one of the funnest teams to watch in Sabres history. Those star forwards with Dahlin on the backend? Pa-lease, that would be quite a show.

For one, we have a whole defense core that outside Dahlin needs to be rebuilt and be invested in (not to mention Dahlin needing a raise himself). And it's not a matter of just waiting for guys to develop in Rochester. We don't have the amount of guys close to being ready. We also have a bottom 6 that is lacking and needs an upgrade in talent. We also need to invest better in our goaltending. There is a lot of money that needs to be spent wisely for team construction and effectiveness.

We need to stop adding/addressing the "we need someone next to Eichel" routine. Eichel is an elite franchise center, we don't need to be bringing around 8-10 million guys to the roster. He's got the ability to MAKE those type of guys. Address the rest of the roster for the bottom 9. NOW, if we didn't have Skinner on the team, I would be fine with going after Kane, or Toews (my preferred between the two).

There are just too many holes on this team that need plugging effectively, and we need to be wise how we spend our dollars. I'd rather use the $3-$5 million you could save with Reinhart on the team instead of Kane/Toews and invest that somewhere else on the roster.

 

[truthbluth]

So the real life of an athlete means nothing on performance? For example, you have triplets at home and are missing sleep. Means nothing on performance?

On a small sample size, sure. The post you referenced involved 3 years of data. Get a nanny if your kids are making you one of the league's worst defensemen for 3 years.

 

[truthbluth]

Also, team analytics departments develop proprietary metrics that are not visible to us. And they're likely better than what we have. Jason Nightingale isn't getting paid big money to sit around in his office and pull a Corsi number off the internet when asked.

I'm not saying that the Sabres have found some way of twisting things so that Risto and Montour are stars. But it really grinds my gears when people point to one rudimentary expected goals metric and declare a player to be good or bad. And I say that as someone who finds analytics and data analysis really interesting.

This trope is nonsense. Proprietary stats should give you an edge when evaluating two similar players, but tracking on ice impact is not some random stat tracking. Either your team has the puck more often and has chances to score more often when you are on the ice or they don't. Nightengale's fancy stats can't possibly negate that.

 

[tsujimoto74]

I think analytics can be important and relevant when used with context. But I am tired of making a snap judgements of players based solely on analytics.

For example, trade ideas get thrown around, and someone posts corsi numbers and immediately people either dismiss or agree on a player based on this alone. Which ignores so much more of the picture.

Very much this. I also think that the kind of "advanced stats" that exist in hockey--at least the ones that are publicly available--still have a lot of development ahead as tools for analyzing the game. Hockey isn't like baseball. The game doesn't occur as a series of discrete events where the isolated impact of a single player is easily quantifiable. There's a lot more chaff to separate from the wheat in hockey.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

I kind a agree with him. Please lay out your argument the other way instead of just posting a rolling eyes emoji. How long do we expect Reinhart to sign for? Kane has 3 years left on his deal and I would expect him even at his age to be a far superior player over Reinhart during that strectch. Also, we would easily have the best top 6 forward group in the league. As a Sabres fan who hasn't seen much to be excited about in the last 13 years, this at the very least would be one of the funnest teams to watch in Sabres history. Those star forwards with Dahlin on the backend? Pa-lease, that would be quite a show.

The salary cap is likely going to be fixed for those 3 years at ~81m.

We currently have 3 wingers taking up 23m of that space.
Skinner & Okposo are going nowhere soon & I fully expect the team's intentions are to resign Hall long term. Likely at a bigger cap hit than his current 8m but for the sake of simplicity we will assume he's resigned for 8m/per.

Our franchise player takes up another 10m. Our other franchise player will be due a huge raise next summer. These guys actually play important positions too. Let's say for arguments sake it is 8m/per - it could be more.

That is more than 50% of the cap already used up on five players. Its going to be tough to build a competitive roster when you only have ~40m to spend on 18 more players.

Yet you want to add Kane & only have ~30m to spend on 17 more players? In case you didn't check - it's not possible. Even if the minimum salary was reduced to 500k it wouldn't be possible. And since we traded Quinn plus our 2021 1st away we have far less chance of having guys able to contribute on ELCs anyway. The task just went from tough to mathematically impossible.

I have HUGE doubts that it will be possible to keep both Reinhart & VO around long term as is along with Hall. Let alone adding a guy with a 10.5m cap hit into the mix.

But let's pretend there is no salary cap. It would still be a bad idea. All star hockey might be fun to watch but it wouldn't be fun watching your team get steamrolled the second the playoffs begin. Ask Leafs fans how that approach has worked for them.

 

[TehDoak]

It doesn't show anything..and proves nothing. It's a gimmick.

How much has each NHL team improved this offseason?

This is his article from last year, showed the 3 most improved teams as the Rangers, Vancouver, and Florida...which mapped pretty accurately to last years big improvements.

Sure, his "wins" value is probably doesn't map directly to real world standings at the end of the year, sure.

But it's a good look at the "net" improvement of a roster, which I think accurately describes our offseason so far:

Better, but not enough.