2020 Roster Speculation Part 3: Off-season Edition

[Fezzy126]

Its funny posters and Sabres analytics twitter say this stuff while also dumping him for his poor analytics. Yet a little bit of research shows he was very effective last season with McCabe in a difficult defensive deployment. One of the toughest deployments in the league actually.

But no one does much research. It’s just hot takes with a single stat that encompasses nothing but him as an individual(I’m referring to Sabres analytics twitter). I can’t tell if its bad faith or laziness on their part.


I’m not even a fan of Risto’s. I just can’t stand the BS and laziness from analytics twitter.

As someone that has both defended Risto and advocated for trading him, I find multiple frustrating aspects with the Risto narrative:

• Anyone that seriously studies analytics in hockey will quickly come to the conclusion that defensmen very rarely drive team-based impacts unless they're elite (e.g. Hedman, Josi, etc). That goes for the good and the bad players, it's why Bogo can go from a 42 xG% with us to a 52 xG% with the Bolts.
• The opinion about Risto has been stated many many times. What's the point of repeating it over and over again? We get it, many people think the hockey team would be better without him, the opinion and reasons behind it has been stated (over hundreds of times), maybe it's time to move on.
• Here's the ironic thing about his play last year, it mirrored the Sabres season. Here is the team's 5-game rolling average of xG differential:

Risto's analytics actually closely matched the team's performance. The analytics community would have you believe he drove these results. It's just not true, there are three well defined valleys here that are easily explained by the following events (obviously there are many factors, but these are the big ones at 5v5):

• Beginning of the season up to game #20ish - the team was adjusting to Krueger
• After game #40 - Olofsson & Skinner injuries
• After game #60 - Eichel injury

Did he drive poor results at times? Absolutely, everyone did. But I think his team impacts are greatly exaggerated.

 

[buffalowing88]

Going*

Lol I wasn't being a dick to the poster. He was creating a problem that most likely won't exist, using projections that are very generous. Making assumptions that a player is going to get paid 8 million per year when he has never played an NHL game is silly. Assuming a bottom 6 forward is going to double his salary is also silly.

I do appreciate you interjecting a completely useless post though !!!

Eh, I do see what you're saying. I think I was a bit harsh there. I definitely don't understand the pay raise for Thompson in that hypothetical, but it wasn't entirely out of left field. I apologize, though. That was a dumb post.

 

[alehman42]

It drives me absolutely crazy when posters bring up other sports, like baseball, as if there are parallels. Hockey will always be the hardest sport for analytics to make an impact on for the reasons you lay out.

I worked for the Red Sox in the early 2000's and I'm still in contact with some people who do sports analytics professionally, and the consensus is actually that football is the sport least conducive to data-based analysis.

One of the reasons is obvious: the short seasons (12-16 games, depending on level) mean the data sample size is always going to be small. But less obvious: the massive amounts of damage done to football players' bodies - and the fact that it's mostly unreported - means that their actual ability level can change significantly from game to game depending on how injured they are and how many doses of painkillers it takes to get them on the field, and there's no real way to control for that (unless teams suddenly decide to be fully forthcoming and completely honest on injury reports).

Hockey is not nearly as easy to analyze as baseball, which is why it's ~20 years behind baseball's timeline. But the meaningful sample size and the relative stability of players' ability from game to game means people have hope to eventually develop meaningful models. Everyone I've talked to views football as a lost cause in that regard.

 

[SundherDome]

Eh, I do see what you're saying. I think I was a bit harsh there. I definitely don't understand the pay raise for Thompson in that hypothetical, but it wasn't entirely out of left field. I apologize, though. That was a dumb post.

Was not expecting this, I was being a bit of a dick to you as well. My apologies as well.

 

[buffalowing88]

Was not expecting this, I was being a bit of a dick to you as well. My apologies as well.

Times are tough with this team haha, I think we're all a little on edge. No harm, no foul. You made good points, as seems to be usual from everything you normally post

 

[TehDoak]

I think our RHD situation should be resolved almost entirely based on value vs contribution to the team, with one of Risto/Montour/Miller being moved.

I'd argue that Risto's value is minimal in the current capped out environment, while his contribution, while oftentimes overused or misplayed, still has value.

If we put him in high ozone starts and a PP QB capacity, his advanced stats would be fine. The issue last season continues to be his deployments and being leaned on too much. He's a fine top 4 d-man, but he's a marginal top pairing one, and that is the role he's been thrust in the last 5 seasons.

To me, the player with the most adequate value to contribution ratio is probably Montour. I still think we could recover some value (I'd say probably a 2nd+ prospect/mid round pick), while he feels like a mismatch for our team. I think given an opportunity to play his natural side with a good partner, he could contribute. But the other issue is I feel that Miller probably has the same issue as Risto in terms of value. He'd return very little while he can still function as a middle or bottom pairing RHD.

 

[TheMistyStranger]

Read an article on fansided earlier that suggested Mitts, Montour, and 2021 1st for Patrick Kane. I have to admit, if Chicago retains some money, I'd probably do that deal. Hall - Eichel - Kane is a line you only see in All Star games

 

[jc17]

Read an article on fansided earlier that suggested Mitts, Montour, and 2021 1st for Patrick Kane. I have to admit, if Chicago retains some money, I'd probably do that deal. Hall - Eichel - Kane is a line you only see in All Star games

I was actually thinking the same, but I'd want salary retained too.

I think the issue is that if Chicago retained enough to make it attractive to us, they could probably get something better from a different team.

I'm still waiting for
skinner eichel risto, hall Staal reinhart

 

[Jim Bob]

I bet Chicago fans love all the horrible Kane/Toews/Keith trade ideas that have started flying around.

Mitts, Montour, and 2021 1st for Patrick Kane is brutal for Chicago.

 

[Fezzy126]

I think our RHD situation should be resolved almost entirely based on value vs contribution to the team, with one of Risto/Montour/Miller being moved.

I'd argue that Risto's value is minimal in the current capped out environment, while his contribution, while oftentimes overused or misplayed, still has value.

If we put him in high ozone starts and a PP QB capacity, his advanced stats would be fine. The issue last season continues to be his deployments and being leaned on too much. He's a fine top 4 d-man, but he's a marginal top pairing one, and that is the role he's been thrust in the last 5 seasons.

To me, the player with the most adequate value to contribution ratio is probably Montour. I still think we could recover some value (I'd say probably a 2nd+ prospect/mid round pick), while he feels like a mismatch for our team. I think given an opportunity to play his natural side with a good partner, he could contribute. But the other issue is I feel that Miller probably has the same issue as Risto in terms of value. He'd return very little while he can still function as a middle or bottom pairing RHD.

Since Schmidt went for a 3rd and Murray went for a 5th, I really wonder if any of our RHDs would fetch better than a 5th right now.

When you account for the fact that the initial FA shopping period is over, I think our best bet might still be a LHD <-> RHD swap with another unbalanced team following the arbitration period.

Vegas is the team I keep looking at:

LHD:
Theodore
Martinez
McNabb
Holden
Dahlstrom
Hague

Pietro is the only RHD they have in their top 4 (with Theodore playing his offside), I wonder if they would consider a Montour w/ retention swap for McNabb.

 

[TehDoak]

They are almost at a point where they could try running three skill lines and an energy line. The conventional days of EA Sports Scoring 1, Scoring 2, Checking, and 4th line is gone.

Eh, it really depends on the team. Tampa doesn't have a true "heavy" dzone start 4th line.

Their offensive stars (Kucherov/Stamkos/Point) get heavy Ozone deployment (60%-ish), the middle 2 lines are 50/50-ish split, and the 4th line has a 40/60 split in D-zone starts. To me, this is probably an ideal deployment where you have a top heavy talent rotation, the middle 6 forwards don't need to be sheltered, and your 4th line still is getting some Ozone time.

Boston has one line do a ton of heavy D-zone lifting (a similar deployment to Larsson in the 70%+ d-zone starts) and has the 3 offensive lines get varying levels of ozone heavy starts.

I think our lineup is leaning towards a Boston-esque deployment where

Hall-Eichel will get 60% Ozone starts
Skinner-Staal will get 55% Ozone starts
Eakin line will get 53% Ozone starts
Lazar line will get 75%+ Dzone starts

I'd really like to see it be closer to Tampa's deployments, but I don't think our middle 6 is good enough not to get destroyed in the circle in the dzone.

 

[TheMistyStranger]

I bet Chicago fans love all the horrible Kane/Toews/Keith trade ideas that have started flying around.

Mitts, Montour, and 2021 1st for Patrick Kane is brutal for Chicago.

Fine. Vanek straight up. :p

 

[Man of Principles]

I came here today to say I'm tired of wingers that can score a handful of goals but are just metrically horrid, and I need 2 forwards in the bottom 6, 1 of which can handle the d zone draws. I'm just tired of this false hope. This team isn't going to be good until they can pay attention to the whole game. Cody Eakin and Tobias Rieder are fast but I don't see them helping with like anything.

 

[Jim Bob]

Fine. Vanek straight up. :p

I'm just saying that so many of these trade ideas are as brutal as the Eichel trade ideas that were flying around prior to the Hall signing.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

Hockey could start by establishing an Elo rating system for forward lines, and use that as a jumping off point for further analytics. Doing so would be a nod to that fact that its harder to model than baseball.

 

[Djp]

They are almost at a point where they could try running three skill lines and an energy line. The conventional days of EA Sports Scoring 1, Scoring 2, Checking, and 4th line is gone.

That is what I want. 3 scoring lines. One with better defensive skills to go against the other teams top line.

That is why I prefer a framework of

Hall-Eichel-xxx
Skinner-yyy-Reinhart
xxx-Staal-Cozens
xxx-zzz-xxx

yyy=Girgrnsons or Eakin. I think Girgs is better defensively and has the speed
zzz= Eakin or Lazar

Sure in trading Montour, Miller, Hutton they could acquire a center.

While unlikely, it is amusing to speculate on the Hawks' vets and potential levels of retention.

I will not mortgage th farm acquiring Kane and/ or Keith

For Kane I’d do Reinhart, Miller+ pick/B prospect.

If they were there bring in both they would need to plan on going 8 skaters in the ED

F- Skinner, Eichel, Olofsson, Kane
D-Dahlin, Joki, Risto, Keith

Kane and Keith @ 50% for Reinhart, Miller, McCabe, Mittlestadt, Asplund , 2021 1st, 2022 2nd

The roster salaries are close

It drives me absolutely crazy when posters bring up other sports, like baseball, as if there are parallels. Hockey will always be the hardest sport for analytics to make an impact on for the reasons you lay out.

From analytics standpoint. Baseball is the easiest because of batter vs pitcher and the ability to see batting tendencies against pitches. Hitting patterns Then design the defense to play against it.

Football and basketball are also hard to isolate play on one player. In football you don’t know what defense scheme was being played to know if it was say man or zone to say accurately who blew coverage or did the play just exploit the defense. In football each style of defense has a counter offensive plays that can exploit it. Similarly defenses show one defense st snap to another.

Hickey...infibudual stats are very difficult which is why I laugh at prop,e who jump in certain states to pass bkame on players when it’s not necessarily the players fault.

With goalies I’d like to see factored in things like scoring threat area and situation that occurred. A goalie shouldn’t be penalized for a screen deflection or if a player was left onvovered in the slot so he had a golden opportunity to score or it was one of those back and forth tic-tactless goals that was near impossible for the goalie to defend.

 

[TehDoak]

I wonder if this has anything to do with the gum up in the trades:



So, basically, NHL teams have to cut a check for 8.1% salary on 10/31

I wonder if the teams with cap space are holding out until after 10/31 to take on cap space and getting a "cash discount" on the contracts

 

[Djp]

Eh, I do see what you're saying. I think I was a bit harsh there. I definitely don't understand the pay raise for Thompson in that hypothetical, but it wasn't entirely out of left field. I apologize, though. That was a dumb post.

If the cap ntracts money was set up at say 900K, $1.4M, $1.9M thus a $2.4M cap hit makes sense snd I have no problem with it. He was a 1st round pick ( prople forhet) and he is only 22 to start this season so it’s a big upside potential given how he did in Rochester.

I worked for the Red Sox in the early 2000's and I'm still in contact with some people who do sports analytics professionally, and the consensus is actually that football is the sport least conducive to data-based analysis.

One of the reasons is obvious: the short seasons (12-16 games, depending on level) mean the data sample size is always going to be small. But less obvious: the massive amounts of damage done to football players' bodies - and the fact that it's mostly unreported - means that their actual ability level can change significantly from game to game depending on how injured they are and how many doses of painkillers it takes to get them on the field, and there's no real way to control for that (unless teams suddenly decide to be fully forthcoming and completely honest on injury reports).

Hockey is not nearly as easy to analyze as baseball, which is why it's ~20 years behind baseball's timeline. But the meaningful sample size and the relative stability of players' ability from game to game means people have hope to eventually develop meaningful models. Everyone I've talked to views football as a lost cause in that regard.

The other pieces are

2. As fans we don’t know what the original play call was. Who made mistakes. Was the WR supposed to cut in or out. Dud the web make the mistake or receiver, or was it based on perception if the defense.

2. On Defense besides the similar situations on defense with mistakes or was it man vs zone, there are numerous e amp,Es of system fit players who fit a certain system but if they go to another team in a different system they suck. Or you have no state positions like a NT needing to get double or triple teamed freeing up a LB to make great plays. The LB changes teams or the NT is gone snd you aren’t sering these plays.

These are lost in stats.

Read an article on fansided earlier that suggested Mitts, Montour, and 2021 1st for Patrick Kane. I have to admit, if Chicago retains some money, I'd probably do that deal. Hall - Eichel - Kane is a line you only see in All Star games

Mitts Montour and a 1st for Kane at 50% would be more workable with the cap. Next offseason buffalo could abdord full cost Kane which is why I coukd see something around

Reinhart, Miller, and Mitts which is close to equal cap costs. Miller is off for next season helping to keep Kane next year, thrn year 3 the cap should go up some

Since Schmidt went for a 3rd and Murray went for a 5th, I really wonder if any of our RHDs would fetch better than a 5th right now.

When you account for the fact that the initial FA shopping period is over, I think our best bet might still be a LHD <-> RHD swap with another unbalanced team following the arbitration period.

Vegas is the team I keep looking at:


Petro is the only RHD they have in their top 4 (with Theodore playing his offside), I wonder if they would consider a Montour w/ retention swap for McNabb.

Montour for Martinez would be equal cap and right for left flip

I can also see Buffalo doing a larger equal cap hit swap with say Calgary

Reinhart, Montour, Mitts for Lindholm, Hanifin, and Rittich + pick

After cap hits are settled teams can do some small imbalanced deals with teams having under $3M in space.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Its funny posters and Sabres analytics twitter say this stuff while also dumping him for his poor analytics. Yet a little bit of research shows he was very effective last season with McCabe in a difficult defensive deployment. One of the toughest deployments in the league actually.

But no one does much research. It’s just hot takes with a single stat that encompasses nothing but him as an individual(I’m referring to Sabres analytics twitter). I can’t tell if its bad faith or laziness on their part.


I’m not even a fan of Risto’s. I just can’t stand the BS and laziness from analytics twitter.

Amen. I don't think it's necessarily bad faith or laziness though...I think there's just a strong desire and self interest for these stats to tell a clearer story than they do, for a variety of reasons, and as a result people convince themselves that the stats are telling a more complete story than they do.

If people on Sabres twitter can't identify or admit to the good things that Risto brings (there are some), then it's hard to put any stock in their assessment. It's at least partially emotionally driven at this point.

 

[Jim Bob]

I wonder if this has anything to do with the gum up in the trades:



So, basically, NHL teams have to cut a check for 8.1% salary on 10/31

I wonder if the teams with cap space are holding out until after 10/31 to take on cap space and getting a "cash discount" on the contracts

I think the two biggest issues right now are the overall lack of cap space around the league and waiting for RFAs and arbitration to shake out.

 

[joshjull]

Amen. I don't think it's necessarily bad faith or laziness though...I think there's just a strong desire and self interest for these stats to tell a clearer story than they do, for a variety of reasons, and as a result people convince themselves that the stats are telling a more complete story than they do.

If people on Sabres twitter can't identify or admit to the good things that Risto brings (there are some), then it's hard to put any stock in their assessment. It's at least partially emotionally driven at this point.

I completely agree with the bolded. When I’m saying bad faith or laziness I’m thinking of how many stats are available and how much fuller a picture could be told. Yet these folks don’t do it. They’ll post someone xGF% but not also putting out their usage, or frequently partners, etc. Give a fuller picture. Its not that hard to do.

 

[VaporTrail]

I bet Chicago fans love all the horrible Kane/Toews/Keith trade ideas that have started flying around.

Mitts, Montour, and 2021 1st for Patrick Kane is brutal for Chicago.

These proposals are ludicrous

 

[Beerz]

Amen. I don't think it's necessarily bad faith or laziness though...I think there's just a strong desire and self interest for these stats to tell a clearer story than they do, for a variety of reasons, and as a result people convince themselves that the stats are telling a more complete story than they do.

If people on Sabres twitter can't identify or admit to the good things that Risto brings (there are some), then it's hard to put any stock in their assessment. It's at least partially emotionally driven at this point.

They have to tell a clear story.. they have to convince everyone that these numbers that are compiled must lead to something or else nobody will visit their website

 

[Rastin]

Gurianov just signed for @2.55m for two years. Think we can get Olofsson to sign for that?

 

[Jacob582]

Gurianov just signed for @2.55m for two years. Think we can get Olofsson to sign for that?

Did Gurianov have arbitration rights?