Speculation: 2020 Offseason Thread

[BigG44]

The main reason I brought it up though was the recent comments from Gaglardi. He seems fully bought in to the defensive team structure. He likes the way the team is built, and this makes that aspect of the team even stronger.

It just seems like a move he'd be behind. Plus, even though they haven't always landed the guy, they've surprisingly been in on some of the top UFAs the last few summers.

 

[BigG44]

This seems to becoming a more and more popular opinion. TSN's latest UFA rankings have Khudobin as the 3rd best goalie available this summer. He's listed ahead of Holtby.

Contract structure to be a major factor in NHL Free Agent Frenzy - TSN.ca

 

[BigG44]

We were talking about tiers and trading back in the draft. Pronman had the guys in the late 20s to 60s rated similarly .Wheeler's ratings came out recently, and his tiers are 23-39 and 40-73.

It's not a science so Dallas could fall either way. I would mostly expect them to pick at 30/31 just because McDonnell does seem to fall in love with guys.

Wheeler: Updated ranking for the 2020 NHL Draft’s top 100 prospects

 

[LT]

This is a pretty unlikely scenario, but after seeing some of the expected contracts for Pietrangelo it at least entered my mind. It seems the pundits have settled on STL is offering $8 x 8, and on the market they're thinking he'll make about $9.5 x 7. That's below market IMO. I don't think any other team could compete with a top four including Heiskanen-Pietrangelo and Lindell-Klingberg. Long-term, you absolutely could lose Klingberg or Lindell (trade to make cap space for Klingberg). You can make it work though for at least 2 years easily.

Expansion actually works as well. To sign Pietrangelo, you have to move Radulov who is only due $1 million next season, and he has a limited trade clause. That opens up and expansion slot as well.

You protect 4 D and 4 forwards. Benn and Seguin have to be protected. You take a risk and give Faksa a 1 year deal this season making him an UFA this summer during expansion. Seattle shouldn't make poor decisions and draft UFAs, and if they do, there's no guarantee they sign. You then only have to protect 2 of Hintz, Gurianov, and Dickinson.

LeBrun speculated that Vegas, Toronto, and Calgary are the logical landing spots. Dallas and Vegas offer significant tax savings. I think you could make a solid case for either team that they're the better landing spot. The downside is Dallas could really use offense, but maybe you don't pass up creating a really solid Top 4.

I like the way you think

We would almost certainly lose Klingberg once he goes UFA, but in all honesty we’re still probably better off.

This would certainly be a way to extend our window. I just don’t see Nill dealing with that many moving parts and all of the potential future cap ramifications. We also would definitely need Oettinger to step up sooner than scheduled, as well as some younger forwards.

A Heiskanen - Pietrangelo pairing has me feeling some kind of way, though...

 

[BrettHullsToe]

I like the way you think

We would almost certainly lose Klingberg once he goes UFA, but in all honesty we’re still probably better off.

This would certainly be a way to extend our window. I just don’t see Nill dealing with that many moving parts and all of the potential future cap ramifications. We also would definitely need Oettinger to step up sooner than scheduled, as well as some younger forwards.

A Heiskanen - Pietrangelo pairing has me feeling some kind of way, though...

I think it only looks great for a season, and then the Stars become a new version of the Wild as the older forwards fall off and the replacements are serviceable but not great. A great defense and (hopefully) goaltending with a terribly mediocre forward group.

 

[Smelling Salt]

Pietrangelo at 9+ million is crazytown. No thanks.

 

[serp]

Pietrangelo is the worst age for a team to sign a free agent at. Klingberg will be in a very similar spot.

 

[BigG44]

That's sort of what I weighed is that you're only giving 7 to Pietrangelo, but Klinger is going to get 8.

Pietrangelo will be signed until he's 37 years old, and Klinger will be 38 at the end of his contract. Neither is really ideal. They're both probably going to get similar money, but I was surprised the current speculation was a bit lower on Pietrangelo right now.

 

[Dynamite Time]

Not sure if Nill even wants to move Coglianos contract but would a bottom team possibly take Cogliano with Tufte. He hasn’t done anything in Texas but would a team try and see what a change could do for him?

 

[BigG44]

He hasn't done anything in Texas is a bad take. That can be true, and it can also be true he's looking like a bad pick. According to the Texas head coach, he's one of the more athletic players down there and a top defensive forward. Writers that actually watch the AHL players are saying the same thing. It's a bad take to base something off stats.

After 1 pro season, it looks like he'll get an opportunity to carve out a NHL career despite the fact he'll probably never be who you expected when he's drafted in the 1st round. He is a disappointment for sure.

Trying to add a sweetener to move Cogliano isn't a terrible idea. If you need the cap space, and depending on how you're going to use it, I'd be fine with that. I do have to be honest though that I'm amazed by the idea of, "Hey, will someone take this overpaid veteran if we add this young guy that sucks?" That's a classic HF take, especially in the trade forum. If you think a guy sucks and state it in your proposal, why would you assume he's valuable to someone else?

 

[Dynamite Time]

I wasn’t saying “he sucks” but there are a number of young fwds who seem to be ahead of him; Kivi, Caamano, Dellandrea, Gardner and L’Esperance all come to mind. Kivi of course has a spot now.

Just saying if Nill was looking to get a bit more cap would he the prospect that could make that a possible deal.

 

[BigG44]

The philosophy of a sweetener is a great idea. I think you're arguing semantics about the take on Tufte though. I just have a hard time believing that a guy who has done nothing would be of value to another team.

Listing off the large number of different depth prospects is a different take, but it's also a good one. You can afford to lose a guy that projects as a depth forward.

 

[Dynamite Time]

Nill is also probably fine with Cogliano for one more year. He should have the money to sign his RFAs and keep this team together without any big moves. I know he’s gone after bigger players some years but I don’t think he’ll do to much this offseason.

 

[BigG44]

Is anyone else a little confused about what's going on in Pittsburgh? I don't think the Kapanen trade was bad, but I do sort of think they could have maybe received a better return for the 1st round pick.

This latest trade that is stalled right now for Mike Matheson though is a big head scratcher. Hornqvist only has 3 years left at $5.3 million, and you're adding a guy making $4.875 million coming off a really rough season. Hornqvist isn't exactly a cap dump ... so why tie yourself to a high-paid declining asset? You have to really, really believe Matheson is poised for a bounce back, and he's never exactly been a world beater. I mean ... I'd much rather be tied to Lindell at $1 million more. That feels like a safer bet. Matheson makes me a bit nervous.

Pittsburgh isn't clearly much space at all ... and instead they're now tied to an asset for twice as long. I'm just not seeing the direction right now they're going.

 

[serp]

I allways thought Matheson was terrible whenever we played the Panthers. 6 more years of a guy you hope bounces back ? Thats just strange.

 

[LT]

Matheson f***ing sucks.

 

[BigG44]

Nill is also probably fine with Cogliano for one more year. He should have the money to sign his RFAs and keep this team together without any big moves. I know he’s gone after bigger players some years but I don’t think he’ll do to much this offseason.

I would say he pretty much tipped his hand that there weren't plans to do much when he said he wanted to re-sign Khudobin. That pretty much wraps up the cap space. Anything else requires maneuvering.

Somehow though they do end up in the conversation with top UFAs many summers. I wouldn't be surprised to see them pop up as a visit for a top free agent, but that doesn't mean they'll sign them. I think it largely depends on the results of the SCF. Gaglardi mildly surprised me by saying that the direction before making the Finals could have been cutting veterans and playing young guys. I think if they fall short in the SCF, you could easily see Gaglardi give the green light to try and get creative and add for another SC run.

I think based on Bettman's recent comments (the BS about playing 82 but not going into the summer), it's looking more and more like the season is less than 82 games. That plays into Dallas' favor next season I think because of the age of top players. I think it was LT that pointed this out, but I forgot about the Olympics. NBC is king, and there's no way the NHL is playing when the Olympics are on. The only thing that can budge is a shorter regular season.

 

[BigG44]

Any interest in Olli Maata as a 5/6 D?

He seems to potentially be in a Nichushkin situation where his buyout is 1/3 instead of 2/3 because of his age. His team seems to need cap space, and he's not meeting the expectations of his current cap hit.

Since he's been listed as a top buyout option recently by some, he could be added to the mix of affordable UFAs if Dallas wanted a 5/6 D to add to the mix (assuming Johns is a question mark).

 

[LT]

If Pietrangelo is interested in coming to Dallas, you listen. Yes, he's 30, but players as elite as him and with his style tend to age fairly gracefully. I suspect the first half of the contract would be very well worth it with the second half starting as a slight overpayment. If you have 2 years of a bad contract like that but 6 years of it being worth it, you take that all the time for a player of his caliber.

If his contract demands aren't crazy and you can find a way to make room, you do. He's a top 5 defender in the league and was the best player on a Cup winning team last year. He's been incredibly healthy and would fit into our system almost perfectly.

With the forward depth we have, a top 4 of Heiskanen - Pietrangelo, Lindell - Klingberg would guarantee we're contending for the next two years.

It may not be the smartest long term decision (which is why I think Nill would never pull the trigger), but it would absolutely make us strong contenders for at least another two years. Perhaps if we lose this SCF, Nill (or more likely Gagliardi) feels emboldened to chase a Cup during this window at the sacrifice of cap freedom in the future.

 

[serp]

There's no way we can fit the kind of contract he would command even if he takes some sort of discount. Any Pietro talk to the Stars is just fantasy.

 

[BigG44]

I think the only cap sacrifice to discuss is Klingberg. I don't mind or completely disagree that Klingberg might be the better player. I think Pietrangelo is. I think it's a given though that they'll both have similar contracts, and if the information is true right now, Pietrangelo actually could get the one for less value. In 2 years, Klinger may get more if the market has started to bounce back.

The other thing to consider is since you know sacrificing Klingberg for Pietrangelo, that gives you an opportunity to actually trade him in a year instead of losing him as a free agent in 2, and you could turn him into a top forward potentially. Maybe you load up for one more run, and then try and reassess.

I just think it is an interesting thing to consider.

 

[BigG44]

There's no way we can fit the kind of contract he would command even if he takes some sort of discount. Any Pietro talk to the Stars is just fantasy.

I'm always careful to tap the brakes on cap talk, but I have to completely disagree here. If he gets market value ... we're out, and that's fine. As people are gathering more information and saying that he might be a $9.5 million player that fits perfectly fine with a single move .. Radulov. Yes I didn't mention it means not signing Khudobin and going with a more affordable option, but it's pretty easy to make room for a $9.5 million contract for the right player.

If Heiskanen wins the Conn Smythe ... I probably have to reconsider that thought because of additional bonus overages.

The cap situation of adding a top UFA is far from a fantasy though. Dallas has the flexibility to pretty much add any player this summer given the willingness to move a guy out. I'm not even suggesting a guy that should be hard to move considering he's making $1 million next season.

 

[Rory]

I would be blown away if Pietrangelo comes to Dallas. He seems to want to go home to Canada. Why come to Dallas?

 

[BigG44]

I've not seen any legitimate speculation that he's dead set on, "going home." In fact, that just sounds like the same dribble for every Toronto-born player for the past 20+ years. 1 guy actually followed through and did that: Tavares. Every other summer (or the year before in some instances / signing an extension), the Toronto born players doesn't go home.

To quote Jim Lites. It's horeshit. It's a fun talking point for media, mostly Toronto media. Toronto actually does makes sense in terms of need and fit so it's not that far out there, but they're not the only team, and there's limitations with money (both cap wise and taxes). There's also legitimate reports that Pietrangelo did want to return to STL and was simply insulted/surprised by low-balled offers. I rarely buy the going home bullshit.

My only point is ... the Toronto noise returning home is just noise. I'd put my money on him signing with someone else though because it's a safer bet. That doesn't even have to be Dallas for me to believe that. You heard it about Seguin. You heard it about Stamkos ... there's a long obnoxious list of Toronto-born players not signing in Toronto despite speculation for the few years before free agency that it's a slam dunk they land there. I just don't trust it anymore so it's not something I factor in. If he signs in Toronto, I don't expect him to take a discount. They'll offer the most money and the best shot to win.

 

[Ghost of Kyiv]

Oh my god, yes please to Pietrangelo. No second thoughts required.