2020 Off-Season Discussion Part II

[PainForShane]

So winning games is elite irregardless of stats? Here are the stats for 2014 playoffs, no idea how you can argue Quick was not average? You can't just count his good games.

2014 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Goalie Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

He won 3 gm 7s on the road that year. And then 3 games in OT during the SCFs. And also came back from 3-0 down against SJ letting up two goals over the last three games. I said all of these things in my last post.

When was the last time any goalie did any of those things?

That's why I argue Quick was not average that year.

Also if all we do is count SV% Khudobin was an elite goalie this year with a 2.24 GAA and .930 save percentage (3rd overall and 1st overall respectively, 30 games played is enough). No idea how you can argue Khudobin's not elite?

NHL Stats

Again, this is your logic we're using. Must be a tough life if you can't even follow the thoughts going through your own head

 

[Heldig]

Why is Minny dumping Dubnyk after a single bad season while dealing with Wife's illness? And with no other goalie and 1 year left on his deal.

I did not make up the reports that Minnesota is looking to move on from Dubnyk. They have Stalock + a couple good goalie prospects. I see them having Kahkonen on the roster.

 

[PainForShane]

Goalies need to rise to the occasion in the playoffs, just like the team in front of them. I swear.... you guys and your goalie fetishes..

@Coyotedroppings (and everyone else) I'm sorry / not sorry you have to see all of this. At this point imo it's more about calling out @Jamieh for actively trolling / arguing both sides of an argument / pretending he doesn't understand the opposing side (in this case that winning multiple game 7s and then going 3-0 in OT games in a cup final is an accomplishment for a goaltender). A guy who's posted 6,000+ times you'd think would a) decently follow hockey and b) be able to understand basic logical arguments, in this case a seemingly logical argument he came up with himself.



I'm not sure what @Fuhrious and @Jamieh are beefing about (lack context) but I have enough faith in Fuhrious and enough smh moments at Jamieh that I tend to lean toward Fuhrious' argument that @Jamieh is "waffling between deliberately ignoring people's actual points or nitpicking minutiae that are not even remotely relevant to the point being made..."

Obviously TEAMS (which of course include goalies) have to be excellent in order to be SC champions. No one (including Jamieh half the time) is disagreeing with that. The other half the time Jamieh is disagreeing, but imo he's trying to stir things up for his own amusement. Again imo this is the internet you're always going to get people like that

 

[Foggy1097]

He won 3 gm 7s on the road that year. And then 3 games in OT during the SCFs. And also came back from 3-0 down against SJ letting up two goals over the last three games. I said all of these things in my last post.

His TEAM did man, his TEAM. You’re framing it like it was Quick against the world. He had a great team playing in front of him as well. To win a Cup it takes a team playing great, consistent hockey...and a goalie playing well yes, but more importantly making timely saves in order to hold back a push from the other team, or to keep momentum going for their team. You don’t have to have an “elite” goaltender to do this.

I don’t agree with @Jamieh all the time, but the point he is making here is accurate I think. CHI won with Niemi...I don’t think Thomas was considered elite before he went in his amazing playoff run. I don’t think Crawford is elite. Osgood won multiple Cups with DET...not an elite goalie. Doesn’t mean you don’t need good timely goaltending to win the Cup...that’s pretty evident.

 

[_Del_]

Mega blockbuster? OEL, Kuemper and Grabner for Monahan, Hanifin, and Lucic(25%)?

I'd probably do it.

 

[PainForShane]

His TEAM did man, his TEAM. You’re framing it like it was Quick against the world. He had a great team playing in front of him as well. To win a Cup it takes a team playing great, consistent hockey...and a goalie playing well yes, but more importantly making timely saves in order to hold back a push from the other team, or to keep momentum going for their team. You don’t have to have an “elite” goaltender to do this.

I don’t agree with @Jamieh all the time, but the point he is making here is accurate I think. CHI won with Niemi...I don’t think Thomas was considered elite before he went in his amazing playoff run. I don’t think Crawford is elite. Osgood won multiple Cups with DET...not an elite goalie. Doesn’t mean you don’t need good timely goaltending to win the Cup...that’s pretty evident.

Foggy there's context here. Imo Jamieh's going out of his way to pretend not to understand the other side's argument (even though he's arguing the other side half the time).

To your point re: relative importance of goalies I agree (as does everyone here). It is the TEAM. The goalie's part of that team, he has to pull his weight but obviously he's not the only person on the team. In 2014 100% it absolutely was not Quick against the world. But like you said Quick was making timely saves, and I also agree you don't have to be elite to do this. (Khudobin this year for instance who is not elite despite Jamieh's logic of just looking at stats which would say Khudobin was an elite goalie this year).

I also 100% agree that timely saves / how clutch you are is a valid way to measure how good you are as a goalie. That's my main point actually. In other words a goalie who continuously makes clutch saves by definition is giving you above average / potentially elite goaltending. What's that saying... who would you most want to start game 7? 3 game 7s won on the road pretty much answers that question as do the overtime games again New York where LA generally carried the play IIRC.

But if someone with 6k+ posts goes out of his way to pretend not to even understand that argument (among other things)... well, that's what this is about. So yes, I think he's trolling, no one with 6K+ posts wouldn't be able to understand the fact that ability to perform under pressure / playoffs (Justin Williams, Claude Lemieux etc) are one way to measure a player. And he's pretended to not understand that argument multiple times... along with pretending to not understand other arguments including ones he's made himself.

FWIW, 100% agree with your post on Jonathan Quick's performance in 2014. He didn't single-handedly save that team but I do maintain he was consistently VERY good when necessary and they most likely wouldn't have come out of that first round, let alone won that second cup without him or potentially a different goalie who was truly elite when it mattered like Quick was

 

[XX]

Whatever qualifies as "good enough" goaltending, you can find it pretty regularly in trade, FA, even waivers sometimes. It is the easiest roster problem to solve.

That should be pretty obvious to a team that has taken average goalies like Smith (minor trade), Dubnyk (FA, almost washed out of the league), Bryzgalov (waivers), Kuemper (minor trade) to stud starter.

Khudobin was signed off the scrap pile for $2.5m. If there's a team out there that can't afford to make a Bobrovsky sized mistake, it's the Coyotes.

 

[Foggy1097]

Foggy there's context here. Imo Jamieh's going out of his way to pretend not to understand the other side's argument (even though he's arguing the other side half the time).

To your point re: relative importance of goalies I agree (as does everyone here). It is the TEAM. The goalie's part of that team, he has to pull his weight but obviously he's not the only person on the team. In 2014 100% it absolutely was not Quick against the world. But like you said Quick was making timely saves, and I also agree you don't have to be elite to do this. (Khudobin this year for instance who is not elite despite Jamieh's logic of just looking at stats which would say Khudobin was an elite goalie this year).

I also 100% agree that timely saves / how clutch you are is a valid way to measure how good you are as a goalie. That's my main point actually. In other words a goalie who continuously makes clutch saves by definition is giving you above average / potentially elite goaltending. What's that saying... who would you most want to start game 7? 3 game 7s won on the road pretty much answers that question as do the overtime games again New York where LA generally carried the play IIRC.

But if someone with 6k+ posts goes out of his way to pretend not to even understand that argument (among other things)... well, that's what this is about. So yes, I think he's trolling, no one with 6K+ posts wouldn't be able to understand the fact that ability to perform under pressure / playoffs (Justin Williams, Claude Lemieux etc) are one way to measure a player. And he's pretended to not understand that argument multiple times... along with pretending to not understand other arguments including ones he's made himself.

FWIW, 100% agree with your post on Jonathan Quick's performance in 2014. He didn't single-handedly save that team but I do maintain he was consistently VERY good when necessary and they most likely wouldn't have come out of that first round, let alone won that second cup without him or potentially a different goalie who was truly elite when it mattered like Quick was

Yeah I think it’s really just semantics. In the playoffs you need a goalie who can play elite for STRETCHES of time, not who is necessarily “elite. Perfect example of this is Khudobin this year. Or Smith in 2012. Smith played elite in that run...no one would consider him an elite goalie looking at his entire body of work. I think what XX said above is right on...gotta look for the next Khudobin/Kuemper type for Schwab to mold until Hill or Prosvetov is ready. The Price and Bobrovsky type goalie contracts just always end up looking horrible...doesn’t seem like the right way to allocate cap.

 

[PainForShane]

Yeah I think it’s really just semantics. In the playoffs you need a goalie who can play elite for STRETCHES of time, not who is necessarily “elite. Perfect example of this is Khudobin this year. Or Smith in 2012. Smith played elite in that run...no one would consider him an elite goalie looking at his entire body of work. I think what XX said above is right on...gotta look for the next Khudobin/Kuemper type for Schwab to mold until Hill or Prosvetov is ready. The Price and Bobrovsky type goalie contracts just always end up looking horrible...doesn’t seem like the right way to allocate cap.

100% on everything here. Only difference with XX's overall thoughts is that I'd also try to keep Kuemper for at least one more year because a) he's on a reasonable contract and b) imo his value should be far higher next year (fewer available goalies who are actually good e.g. Holtby, Murray which would I think drive his value much higher etc). I could absolutely see Kuemper fetching a Matt Duchene - like return next year at the deadline for a cup contender with an average goalie or a clear #1 goalie who gets injured. This year I doubt that happens, so I'd rather keep him. You can absolutely argue trading Kuemper now, good arguments on both sides.

But yeah, agree with your overall thoughts here. The marginal benefit of a Price / Vasi vs a Kuemper may not be worth 5m in lost cap space depending on your team. Ideally you do want someone around as good as a Kuemper / Murray etc (or someone who can play that way for 10-20 games) to steal a game here and there during a cup run.

Either way however you define that magical cutoff (I'd say somewhere between above average and elite), it helps to have a goalie who can play that well during most of the playoffs, potentially every year if the team's a cup contender like TBL right now. Vasi (and Bishop) have shown enough, Khudobin has this year as well

 

[_Del_]

You can absolutely argue trading Kuemper now, good arguments on both sides.

You only trade Keumper if you're getting a haul. If there's really a first on the table, it'd be foolish to pass it up. Whoever the first is (say Zary at 19) is worth way more to this franchise's future than Keumper is for two years during which we won't be relevant.
If you're getting less than that, I'm not sure what the motivation would be. You don't trade him to save $2.7M.

 

[WrinkledPossum]

Mega blockbuster? OEL, Kuemper and Grabner for Monahan, Hanifin, and Lucic(25%)?

I'd do it.

We get a 1/2C which we've been searching for forever and a top 4 dman with 1st pairing upside. We'd be lucky if any draft pick we'd instead get for OEL/Kuemper were to turn into Monahan or Hanifin.

The trade could potentially lock up 3 top 4 dman spots for us for 5-10 years if Soderstrom performs to expectations. And could give us a 3 good to great Cs with Monahan, Dvorak, and Hayton. Again for another 5-10 years.

It would also to easily trade Stepan, and clear out our old dman without too much fall off this year.

 

[Mosby]

Mega blockbuster? OEL, Kuemper and Grabner for Monahan, Hanifin, and Lucic(25%)?

Yep. We can always get picks with the other parts (Hammer, Goose, Raanta, etc.).

 

[_Del_]

I'm thinking you can bury Loui Eriksson @50% for $500k this year with a $2M cap hit. Or play him on the fourth for the same money and a $3M hit.

Next year is $2M cash and $2M hit. OR a buyout next summer is $1M with a $2M dead cap hit in 2021-22 and a $500k cap hit and real dollar cost for 2022-23. The buy out seems very manageable.


What's it worth to Vancouver with their current squeeze? Virtanen and a prospedt/pick? Is there someone there that Armstrong likes?

It should be possible to absorb Virtanen and 2 or 3 million cap for Eriksson if we're moving at least one goaltender and one veteran D.

 

[rt]

Yep. We can always get picks with the other parts (Hammer, Goose, Raanta, etc.).

I'd do it.

We get a 1/2C which we've been searching for forever and a top 4 dman with 1st pairing upside. We'd be lucky if any draft pick we'd instead get for OEL/Kuemper were to turn into Monahan or Hanifin.

The trade could potentially lock up 3 top 4 dman spots for us for 5-10 years if Soderstrom performs to expectations. And could give us a 3 good to great Cs with Monahan, Dvorak, and Hayton. Again for another 5-10 years.

It would also to easily trade Stepan, and clear out our old dman without too much fall off this year.

But would Calgary consider it?

 

[WrinkledPossum]

But would Calgary consider it?

I really don't see them trading Monahan. I don't think they believe he is an elite 1C. But if they trade him then what do they have?

Someone said Hanifin is rumored to be available. I don't think it makes sense for them to trade him unless they get a dman back. Whether that's OEL or Kuemper +. Their D is old, from the outside he looks like he should be a core piece for them.

 

[Mosby]

Given Benning’s comments and the fact that he has arb rights I wouldn’t be shocked if Vancouver doesn’t qualify Virtanen.

 

[rt]

Given Benning’s comments and the fact that he has arb rights I wouldn’t be shocked if Vancouver doesn’t qualify Virtanen.

Insiders have stated that fans will be shocked at the caliber of arbitration eligible players simply walked away from. A handful of these will likely drive UFA prices down even further. Additionally, trade values won't improve.

It sounds like the Coyotes have a big press conference on Tuesday. Tomorrow seems like a great day to complete a couple of huge trades.

 

[XX]

Given Benning’s comments and the fact that he has arb rights I wouldn’t be shocked if Vancouver doesn’t qualify Virtanen.

He scored effectively 20 from the bottom 6, he'll have takers.

Canucks fans were receptive to a Roussel for Grabner swap.

 

[_Del_]

I don't see what Grabner for Roussel accomplishes. Save less than half a million this year, add a $3M obligation for a bottom six winger next.

 

[XX]

Pushback and grit in a spot bringing none. He also plays a better game 5v5. Only owed $1.9m cash next year.

 

[Jamieh]

I'm thinking you can bury Loui Eriksson @50% for $500k this year with a $2M cap hit. Or play him on the fourth for the same money and a $3M hit.

Next year is $2M cash and $2M hit. OR a buyout next summer is $1M with a $2M dead cap hit in 2021-22 and a $500k cap hit and real dollar cost for 2022-23. The buy out seems very manageable.


What's it worth to Vancouver with their current squeeze? Virtanen and a prospedt/pick? Is there someone there that Armstrong likes?

It should be possible to absorb Virtanen and 2 or 3 million cap for Eriksson if we're moving at least one goaltender and one veteran D.

Vancouver is an interesting case with a few dead Cap hits and some key signings coming up. I wonder if the new Owner and GM Have an appetite to take a couple of overpaid vets off their hands While grabbing a nice prospect or two?? Not that I like either but something around Eriksson and Sutter while giving them a veteran D. In addition Vertanen and a 1st/prospect. I freely admit I'm not good at putting trades together if this is terrible!!!

 

[_Del_]

Pushback and grit in a spot bringing none. He also plays a better game 5v5. Only owed $1.9m cash next year.

I like Roussel. I know who he is. Here's what I said when he signed:

Love Roussel, but that's a stretch.

My reaction from when he got that contract hasn't changed.

I just don't see what we can't get somewhere else cheaper. I'd also dispute your 5v5 characterization.

 

[hbk]

Insiders have stated that fans will be shocked at the caliber of arbitration eligible players simply walked away from. A handful of these will likely drive UFA prices down even further. Additionally, trade values won't improve.

It sounds like the Coyotes have a big press conference on Tuesday. Tomorrow seems like a great day to complete a couple of huge trades.

Press conference Tues????

 

[rt]

I don't see what Grabner for Roussel accomplishes. Save less than half a million this year, add a $3M obligation for a bottom six winger next.

It would save us $1.275m‬ this year in cash. Cap is irrelevant. The extra year sucks, but it's only $1.9m (not 3 million - I think you're confusing cash and cap - we only care about the former for the next 1-3 seasons). Not too gross. I think it makes some sense. More than devaluing an OEL or Keumper trade by adding him in or losing an asset to ditch him.

 

[_Del_]

Or you could just pay him for 2/3's a season and try to get an asset back or simply watch him walk instead of overpaying Roussel next year.