Prospect Info: 2020 NHL Entry Draft (Round #1 - 10/6/20 @ 7pm ET)

[hbk]

Hadn’t seen the Perfetti thing RE Detroit. You have a link? I’d be curious to read that.

I’d still just take Lafrenière. Rossi, Byfield and Drysdale all have red flags. Lafrenière has none.

Rossi is super short for a center, old for his class, and given he’s just about a finished product physically, he’s got a lower ceiling.

Byfield has a ton to work on and a long road. He’s got to fill out. Then learn to use it. He’s got to start playing a pro-style game. Lots of development. High ceiling, but lower floor than practically anyone else in the top six.

Drysdale is benefiting tremendously from a lack of top defensemen available in this draft. He’s been elevated by slim pickings.

I would not even consider trading Lafrenière.

31 Thoughts Podcast. Definitely a must listen to this week.

I’m not disagreeing. I just want to have my cake (Hall) and eat it to. Plus it gives me a reason to pay attention to the draft.

 

[rt]

Finished my draft list today, so might as well post it. Went with the same idea i did last year where i only list players i would be happy drafting and in the range i would like to see them drafted (my list is not where i think they will necessarily go, I try and keep players 20ish picks within their usual rankings on other lists). Same as last year I'll clarify that the biggest hole in this method that i see is players i don't mind potentially dropping and being overlooked because they aren't on the list. I still see this as an easy problem to fix and with the success my draft list had last year, i decided to keep things fairly similar. For reference i will include my draft last year. Every player on the list has been watched in game and the list has been cut down from roughly 100+ players to 58 players and 6 high schoolers i think should have an eye kept on them. I don't draft high schoolers because their competition is too weak to gauge the players potential very well and most are just too many years away from playing in the NHL
Last years draft:
14- Payton Krebs
45- Nick Robertson
76- Maxim Cajkovic
98- Mattias Maccelli
107- Ethan Keppen (went off list, should have been Mikhail Abramov)
151- Billy Constantinou
174- Yaroslav Likhachyov
176- Dmitri Sheshin
200- Kristian Tanus
207- Dylan Jackson

First Round (1-15)
Alexis Lafrieniere
Tim Strutzle / Lucas Raymond (interchangeable)
Jamie Drysdale
Marco Rossi / Cole Perfetti (interchangeable)
Anton Lundell
Seth Jarvis
Noel Gunler / Dawson Mercer (Interchangeable)
Connor Zary

First round 20-30
Jack Quinn
Maverik Bourque
Hendrix Lapierre
J.J. Peterka

2nd Round
Ridley Greig*
Tyson Foerster*
Thomas Bordeleau
Ryan O'Rourke
Jake Neighbours
Brendan Brisson**

3rd Round
Jean-Luc Foudy*
Roni Hirvonen
Zayde Wisdom
Marat Khusnutdinov
Brock Faber
Luke Tuch
Zion Nybeck**
Alex Laferriere
Tyler Tullio
Emil Heineman**

4th Round
Connor McClennon*
Maxim Beryozkin*
Pavel Novak*
Pavel Gogolev
William Villeneuve
Ethan Cardwell
Alexander Pashin

5th Round
Roman Faith*
Evan Veirling**
Michael Benning
Kristian Tanus
Billy Constantinou
Kasper Puutio**
Veeti Miettinen**

6th Round
Lleyton Moore
Dmitri Sheshin
Samuel Johannson
Alexander Nikishin
Luke Prokop**

7th Round
Dylan Jackson
Ty Jackson
Stephen Halliday
Trevor Kuntar
Yaroslav Likhachyov
Adam Wilsby
Reid Valade**
Nikolia Mayorov**

High Schoolers (no specific order)
Shane Donovan
Nic Gustafson
Jimmy Mettler
Joe Miller
Grant Slukynsky
Jack Smith

* means i'm a fan and would consider drafting them earlier than i have listed. Though i think they have a chance to be available in the round i have them and could be a steal.
** means they almost didn't make the list (many different reasons why this may be)

Did you forget Byfield or do you dislike him?

 

[rt]

31 Thoughts Podcast. Definitely a must listen to this week.

I’m not disagreeing. I just want to have my cake (Hall) and eat it to. Plus it gives me a reason to pay attention to the draft.

Having your cake and eating it too is getting Hall and Lafrenière and ditching Keller and/Schmaltz. Hall and Lafrenière are I’m a completely different league. If you need to reshape the roster to accommodate, then that’s what you do. f*** Keller and Schmaltz.

Most likely scenario is Nashville stomps us, we lose the lottery, give NJ a top 10 pick, and then Hall leaves anyway.

 

[hbk]

Having your cake and eating it too is getting Hall and Lafrenière and ditching Keller and/Schmaltz. Hall and Lafrenière are I’m a completely different league. If you need to reshape the roster to accommodate, then that’s what you do. f*** Keller and Schmaltz.

Most likely scenario is Nashville stomps us, we lose the lottery, give NJ a top 10 pick, and then Hall leaves anyway.

We are just going to win the playin round anyways and all this is moot.

 

[Mosby]

I heard the Perfetti to Detroit speculation too but I think him playing in Saginaw and Osgood being a part owner is too flimsy to just assume the Wings will take him. Look how off the board the Wings went with their first last year.

 

[Mosby]

^Keller and Schmaltz on the third line?

The players above them are better, but the way Toch rolls his top 9 forwards it doesn't make much of difference in TOI.

 

[YotesFan47]

Chayka admitted on day two of the 2017 draft that they would have taken Ratcliffe at that spot, if they hadn’t made the deal to trade back with Philadelphia. We instead ended up with Westerlund (bust), Schnarr (traded) and Hoefenmayer (chose not to retain).

Sometimes it’s just better to take your guy than f*** around and play games. Three nickels don’t make a quarter.

Valuable lesson to consider when contemplating doing something so disastrously incompetent as trading down from 1st overall and walking away from the best player in the last two drafts combined.

I understand the thought behind that, and I would be just as happy to take Laf 1oA but at the same time, we are not getting a #1 center and therefor we should be getting multiple runs on other positions. Adding Drysdale, Frost and Ratcliffe provides tremendous potential. Plus with the size of our team, I would rather grab one of the perceived lower impact centers with more size in the middle of the 1st (Byfield excluded). In an ideal world I would take Byfield and Schneider as our picks but somehow getting pick 2 and ~12 for the 1st overall seems unlikely.

 

[Mosby]

If we're cutting one of the young forwards I'd cut Schmaltz before Keller.

 

[BUX7PHX]

Chayka admitted on day two of the 2017 draft that they would have taken Ratcliffe at that spot, if they hadn’t made the deal to trade back with Philadelphia. We instead ended up with Westerlund (bust), Schnarr (traded) and Hoefenmayer (chose not to retain).

Sometimes it’s just better to take your guy than f*** around and play games. Three nickels don’t make a quarter.

Valuable lesson to consider when contemplating doing something so disastrously incompetent as trading down from 1st overall and walking away from the best player in the last two drafts combined.

I am not disagreeing with where you are going with this logic. I think that context needs to be clear, though. This is the 2nd or 3rd round that we are trading back from. If we stay put and take Ratcliff, does that make us any less interested in obtaining Hall? Or does it change where Hoefenmayer or Westerlund are at on our big board? Probably not much.

If we turn the #1 pick and some of our contract space into #3 and #5, we may be trading one elite player for two. I have to believe that the #1 pick is elite. I also think that busts in the top 5 are rare relative to everything else.

I look at the concept as being, if we don't keep Hall, we also lose the 2021 1st round pick, regardless.

So option A is Lafreniere alone.

Option B is some sort of deal with #1, and some pieces (Raanta, other picks) for #3 and #5. For arguments sake, that is Stutzle/Byfield at 3 and Holtz at 5.

If we are able to re-sign Hall and win the lottery, we have Hall and Lafreniere as option C.

Option D is the one that kind of deserves consideration, because it allows us to maximize the value of players and contracts. If the #1, Stepan, and Raanta nets #3 and #5, we do everything that is being asked: rid contracts that create space for Hall's commitment, get us another option as that #1 C in Stutzle/Byfield, and adds another elite type of player to work with in the #5 pick.

That would be such an interesting mix of 18-25 year old talent that would gain some short and long term deals over time and continue the cycle that I think we are trying to go after with Schmaltz, Dvorak, and Keller deals.

 

[BUX7PHX]

This is what happens when the NHL does 4d chess with the draft lottery.

The only way to combat is to create further 4d chess models of the team.

Hall-Dvorak-Holtz
Keller-Hayton-Schmaltz
Crouse-Byfield

That could be 8 of our 12 - give it two years - assuming Byfield and Holtz are the real deal and we have the need to open up money for them, suddenly, a player like Keller, who probably is getting points by playing with top end players - if Keller is between 50 and 60 points or more, his contract is easily attractive to being moved and picking up a mid 1st round pick or something to continue re-tooling.

 

[tucknroll]

Did you forget Byfield or do you dislike him?

I just don't think Byfield is a good value pick. I'd trade down before drafting him unless Raymond, Struzle and maybe Drysdale are all off the board already.. so i didn't bother adding him to the list.
Similar reason why Jake Sanderson isn't on the list. I like him and he's a great player.. but the odds of him being available when i'm want to draft him is just really unlikely.

 

[Heldig]

If we're cutting one of the young forwards I'd cut Schmaltz before Keller.

I think there would be a market for Schmaltz. Not overpaid. Still young and with potential still.

I know his name has been bandied about on the Jets forum as a target for their long sought after 2nd line C. Questions of whether he is really a C of course.

What would be the ask from the Jets? Obviously CAP is an issue. Would Roslovic + a top prospect like Vesalainen or Niku be enough?

 

[hbk]

I think there would be a market for Schmaltz. Not overpaid. Still young and with potential still.

I know his name has been bandied about on the Jets forum as a target for their long sought after 2nd line C. Questions of whether he is really a C of course.

What would be the ask from the Jets? Obviously CAP is an issue. Would Roslovic + a top prospect like Vesalainen or Niku be enough?

Curious who we were dangling for Trochek?

as for the Jets I don’t see a fit myself. Unless they have interest in Stepan.

 

[rt]

I am not disagreeing with where you are going with this logic. I think that context needs to be clear, though. This is the 2nd or 3rd round that we are trading back from. If we stay put and take Ratcliff, does that make us any less interested in obtaining Hall? Or does it change where Hoefenmayer or Westerlund are at on our big board? Probably not much.

If we turn the #1 pick and some of our contract space into #3 and #5, we may be trading one elite player for two. I have to believe that the #1 pick is elite. I also think that busts in the top 5 are rare relative to everything else.

I look at the concept as being, if we don't keep Hall, we also lose the 2021 1st round pick, regardless.

So option A is Lafreniere alone.

Option B is some sort of deal with #1, and some pieces (Raanta, other picks) for #3 and #5. For arguments sake, that is Stutzle/Byfield at 3 and Holtz at 5.

If we are able to re-sign Hall and win the lottery, we have Hall and Lafreniere as option C.

Option D is the one that kind of deserves consideration, because it allows us to maximize the value of players and contracts. If the #1, Stepan, and Raanta nets #3 and #5, we do everything that is being asked: rid contracts that create space for Hall's commitment, get us another option as that #1 C in Stutzle/Byfield, and adds another elite type of player to work with in the #5 pick.

That would be such an interesting mix of 18-25 year old talent that would gain some short and long term deals over time and continue the cycle that I think we are trying to go after with Schmaltz, Dvorak, and Keller deals.

Everything other than drafting Lafrenière is Pejorative Slured.

 

[hbk]

Everything other than drafting Lafrenière is Pejorative Slured.

man I just would love to have this conversation over beers.

 

[rt]

man I just would love to have this conversation over beers.

There’s really no conversation to be had on this one.

 

[Mosby]

I think there would be a market for Schmaltz. Not overpaid. Still young and with potential still.

I know his name has been bandied about on the Jets forum as a target for their long sought after 2nd line C. Questions of whether he is really a C of course.

What would be the ask from the Jets? Obviously CAP is an issue. Would Roslovic + a top prospect like Vesalainen or Niku be enough?

I like Roslovic but we need immediate help and he isn’t that.

 

[Mosby]

Most of the picks in this year’s CHL Euro draft aren’t going to be eligible in the NHL draft this year, right? Mostly for next year or the year after?

Nope. A lot of guys will be picked in the 2020 NHL Draft. A good chunk of 2021 guys. Draft goes tomorrow at 9 a.m. Arizona time.

 

[Mosby]

I see Lafrenière as some unholy mixture of Jamie Benn, Taylor Hall, Brady Tkachuk, and Jonathan Huberdeau.

He's a hard comparison to make. I think Laf is physical but doesn't have the nasty edge of Benn or Tkachuk. He's also much more offensively gifted than both. I like the Hall comparable. A lot of people are saying Huberdeau but I don't really see that one. Maybe Peter Forsberg as a winger?

 

[Mosby]

A lot of interesting results in the Import Draft. JJ Peterka for example goes to London. He's ranked No. 23 on Bob's list for this year's NHL Draft. Is he a more interesting draft prospect now that you know he's going to a powerhouse program rather than playing in Germany (saying that with all respect to the growth of the DEL)?

 

[rt]

A lot of interesting results in the Import Draft. JJ Peterka for example goes to London. He's ranked No. 23 on Bob's list for this year's NHL Draft. Is he a more interesting draft prospect now that you know he's going to a powerhouse program rather than playing in Germany (saying that with all respect to the growth of the DEL)?

London would be a great place for him to acclimate to the North American ice surface. The OHL is kind of just fire-wagon hockey this point, though. So I’m not sure which option is actually better between the OHL and the DEL.

If I was him, I’d want to stay put. He’s from Munich. He’s playing in Munich. He’s playing for a storied franchise in an awesome, world-class city in a men’s league with some kind of paycheck.

Trade that to go play for an amateur team in a kids league in a small-ish city two hours outside of Detroit on one end and Toronto on the other? Probably not.

 

[lanky]

I love the CHL as a development league and London is the best club in the whole CHL. I just don't think there's enough of a benefit for a player that is already succeeding in a men's league.

There probably won't be a CHL season anyways, so kind of moot.

 

[rt]

I love the CHL as a development league and London is the best club in the whole CHL. I just don't think there's enough of a benefit for a player that is already succeeding in a men's league.

There probably won't be a CHL season anyways, so kind of moot.

There's just something really iconic and awesome for me about playing for the Munich Red Bull. I imagine it's even more so for a kid who grew up there. They've been an absolute dynasty the last have decade ago. Going back to about the time when he would have seriously committed and went to play for the Red Bull Hockey Academy in Salzburg, Austria, against Czech competition. I'm sure you come out of a program like that just completely indoctrinated. What an amazing opportunity.

 

[rt]

Anyway, JJP ain't going 1st overall, and there's about a 0% chance he drops to our 2nd rounder.

 

[Mosby]

2020 draft eligibles who were taken today:

1/2 G Jan Bednar (Acadie-Bathurst) ranked 2G
1/3 D Oliver Fatul (Swift Current) ranked 70
1/4 LW Danil Gushchin (Niagara) ranked 41 (North American list)
1/18 RW Tomas Chlubna (Red Deer) ranked 52
1/21 D Samuel Knazko (Seattle) ranked 42
1/24 D Michael Krutil (Kelowna) ranked 27
1/37 D David Mudrak (Oshawa) ranked 131*
1/47 C Matei Kaslik (Chicoutimi) ranked 112
1/55 LW J.J. Peterka (London) ranked 7
1/56 D Viktor Persson (Kamloops) ranked 44
1/58 RW Janis Svanenbergs (Edmonton) ranked 76*
2/83 D Jan Hampl (Saint John) ranked 108
2/90 D Marko Stacha (Vancouver) ranked 105
2/117 RW Kasper Simontaival (Ottawa) ranked 21