Prospect Info: 2020 NHL Entry Draft (Round #1 - 10/6/20 @ 7pm ET)

[Mosby]

Laf and Byfield were neck and neck at the start of this season but Laf won the race by a considerable margin.

Doesn't mean Byfield is a bad player or anything. Also keep in mind he's about a full year younger than Laf.

 

[XX]

Doesn't mean Byfield is a bad player or anything. Also keep in mind he's about a full year younger than Laf.

Likely completely offset by his size advantage in his league.

 

[87turbobuick]

The last three drafts have not been good for the Number 1 overall. 2017 numbers 3, 4, 5 are better players than the top 2 picks. 2018 numbers 2, 4 ,7 are equal if not better than #1. 2019 looks to be a lost year for the draft. Lafreniere could be a Turgeon type player but he could also be a Daigle. If the Coyotes get the #1 pick you could always trade it along with other players to get cap relief and good quality pros but I do not trust Chayka to make that deal.

 

[BUX7PHX]

The last three drafts have not been good for the Number 1 overall. 2017 numbers 3, 4, 5 are better players than the top 2 picks. 2018 numbers 2, 4 ,7 are equal if not better than #1. 2019 looks to be a lost year for the draft. Lafreniere could be a Turgeon type player but he could also be a Daigle. If the Coyotes get the #1 pick you could always trade it along with other players to get cap relief and good quality pros but I do not trust Chayka to make that deal.

Bear in mind that Patrick was ahead of Hischier in the final rankings in 2017. All that you have done is simply point out what is already known - some players are able to jump in right away, whereas some may need development time.

Not every year can be perceived the same, but I think that this is a year where there is a clear #1 pick who doesn't have arbitrary concerns. Hughes was the clear #1 last year, but he is a very small player who may not assimilate immediately. 2017 does not look like a particularly strong year, in general. Dahlin was kind of the natural selection, and again - between Dahlin and Hughes, if you knew beforehand that these guys would be similar in production, do you go with the guy who is 6'2" and has a little filling out to do, or the guy who is 5'10" and has a lot of filling out to do? Long term, I like the over 6 foot chances than others, but that is also why the draft is in inexact science.

The fact that Byfield has these intangibles of size (which can't be taught), and Lafreniere (who is also built to step into the NHL) is that mich talked about ahead of him signifies a no-brainer. He helps you now. He helps in the future. For some players, the help may not be there immediately. But once developed, the help gets there. The most damaging is when someone speaks too early.

 

[Jakey53]

The last three drafts have not been good for the Number 1 overall. 2017 numbers 3, 4, 5 are better players than the top 2 picks. 2018 numbers 2, 4 ,7 are equal if not better than #1. 2019 looks to be a lost year for the draft. Lafreniere could be a Turgeon type player but he could also be a Daigle. If the Coyotes get the #1 pick you could always trade it along with other players to get cap relief and good quality pros but I do not trust Chayka to make that deal.

Every year the draft is a crap shoot, but less of a risk if you are picking #1. There is no way Chayka should trade this pick if we are so lucky to get it.

 

[rt]

Every year the draft is a crap shoot, but less of a risk if you are picking #1. There is no way Chayka should trade this pick if we are so lucky to get it.

If after winning the 1st overall (FINALLY!) if the Coyotes do anything other than simply draft Alexis Lafrenière with that pick, it will easily be the stupidest thing the Coyotes have ever done, in their 25 years of stupidity. It would be the absolute shit cherry on top of a complete shit sundae.

 

[hbk]

If after winning the 1st overall (FINALLY!) if the Coyotes do anything other than simply draft Alexis Lafrenière with that pick, it will easily be the stupidest thing the Coyotes have ever done, in their 25 years of stupidity. It would be the absolute shit cherry on top of a complete shit sundae.

Would you deal 1OV for 3OV and 5OV? We’d likely have to include 41OV as well or possibly a contract like Grabner or Goligoski and maybe Hinostroza. Create cap room to sign Hall....

1OV
Hinostroza
Raanta
Goligoski

for

3OV
5OV
Logan Brown

 

[Mosby]

I don't know enough about Stutzle. Is he considered ready? Will he step into the NHL next year?

The above is interesting discussion IMO and as much as I like the idea of something like Byfield + Drysdale at 3 and 5, I don't think we can pass up on star talent like Laf, especially with him being ready now and maybe a piece that can help convince Hall to stay. Laf isn't McDavid tier, but he'll be a top-line guy.

How do we look if somehow we win this thing? I'm assuming Stepan will be our cap casualty given the flexibility of his signing bonus.

Hall - Dvorak - Garland
Lafreniere - Hayton - ?
Keller - Schmaltz - ? (Kessel)
Crouse - Richie/Soda - Fischer

RWs are kinda open. 2RW and 3RW should be veteran, defensive-minded guys who aren't offensively inept given inexperience of second line and lack of defensive play for the third pairing duo. Kessel doesn't fit that description but likely fills one of those holes, unless you sub him in place of Garland on the top line. Center is what it is until Matthews hits UFA...

Not sure I really see a role for Hinostroza. He's just kind of blah and we need a more defined player. A lot of that can be said about Fischer but I have more time for him. I like Richie and Soda a lot for different reasons, and if the cost is relatively equal, I'd lean Soda.

Michael Grabner looks done and either needs to be bought out, traded, or LTIR (probably not an option now if he's fully recovered from his eye injury).

Not really anyone on Tucson banging on the door just yet. Bunting is interesting and could be a Fischer replacement if he doesn't get his shit together. Jenik will likely need at least a half season in the minors. Quality veteran role players through FA would be good if we have the cap.

Re: Logan Brown, not sure what he is at this point. Did he only dominant in junior because of his size? Why couldn't he define more of a role on a piss poor Senators team? Is he even better than any of our existing centers?

 

[hbk]

You could also sub out Logan Brown for a 2nd rounder (maybe multiple picks) as Ottawa has 4 picks in the 2nd round.

interesting that on 31 thoughts podcast their analyst says Perfetti is going to Detroit. That would mean we would get 2 of Stutzle, Byfield, Drysdale, Rossi

 

[BUX7PHX]

Thinking through possible scenarios here:

Highly unlikely that Hall re-signs if we lose in the QR, but I would maybe put a 2% chance on it happening where we lost a close series to Nashville in OT each game, type of scenario.

The remaining time, Hall does not re-sign. So if we lose a 1st round pick in 2021, regardless, maybe the idea of trading 1 for 3 and 5 is not bad. We basically get a half year of Hall for the prospects and a 3rd round pick, as I would consider the #3 or 5 pick to be a better pick than what we would give to NJ the next year.

We could sell Hall on either Lafreniere or adding two very good players. Stutzle and Holtz could be our adds.

Just adding to an interesting discussion, but by winning #1 and losing the 2021 1st round pick, if we are certain Hall is not re-signing, maybe we look in that direction and use #1 to fill the loss of Hall and add another player as well by trading back.

 

[Heldig]

^Keller and Schmaltz on the third line?

If the Coyotes end up with 1st overall I could be tempted to trade down a pick or 2 but no way Ottawa deals 3rd AND 5th, right?

Winning Lafreniere and signing Hall likely means one of the perimeter type forwards has to be moved for a little more size and grit to balance the lineup. And the CAP is still a thing so some salary has to go.

 

[rt]

Would you deal 1OV for 3OV and 5OV? We’d likely have to include 41OV as well or possibly a contract like Grabner or Goligoski and maybe Hinostroza. Create cap room to sign Hall....

1OV
Hinostroza
Raanta
Goligoski

for

3OV
5OV
Logan Brown

No. Raanta and Goligoski can easily be dealt independently. Same for Hinostroza. I would guess we could get a late 2nd for Raanta, a late 3rd or early 4th for Goligoski and a 6th for Hinostroza.

I would NOT trade 1st overall, a late 2nd, a late 3rd, and a 6th for 3rd overall, 5th overall, Logan Brown and a bunch of cap-space.

 

[BUX7PHX]

^Keller and Schmaltz on the third line?

If the Coyotes end up with 1st overall I could be tempted to trade down a pick or 2 but no way Ottawa deals 3rd AND 5th, right?

Winning Lafreniere and signing Hall likely means one of the perimeter type forwards has to be moved for a little more size and grit to balance the lineup. And the CAP is still a thing so some salary has to go.

If Hall is not re-signing, then trades are less likely to be needed. If we can convince him to resign, would it not also make sense to be able to replace with entry level type players?

1st, Raanta, and Stepan for #3 and #5.

 

[hbk]

^Keller and Schmaltz on the third line?

If the Coyotes end up with 1st overall I could be tempted to trade down a pick or 2 but no way Ottawa deals 3rd AND 5th, right?

Winning Lafreniere and signing Hall likely means one of the perimeter type forwards has to be moved for a little more size and grit to balance the lineup. And the CAP is still a thing so some salary has to go.

Sens GM have a no comment to that question on 31 thoughts podcast.

 

[rt]

Thinking through possible scenarios here:

Highly unlikely that Hall re-signs if we lose in the QR, but I would maybe put a 2% chance on it happening where we lost a close series to Nashville in OT each game, type of scenario.

The remaining time, Hall does not re-sign. So if we lose a 1st round pick in 2021, regardless, maybe the idea of trading 1 for 3 and 5 is not bad. We basically get a half year of Hall for the prospects and a 3rd round pick, as I would consider the #3 or 5 pick to be a better pick than what we would give to NJ the next year.

We could sell Hall on either Lafreniere or adding two very good players. Stutzle and Holtz could be our adds.

Just adding to an interesting discussion, but by winning #1 and losing the 2021 1st round pick, if we are certain Hall is not re-signing, maybe we look in that direction and use #1 to fill the loss of Hall and add another player as well by trading back.

No thanks.

 

[hbk]

No. Raanta and Goligoski can easily be dealt independently. Same for Hinostroza. I would guess we could get a late 2nd for Raanta, a late 3rd or early 4th for Goligoski and a 6th for Hinostroza.

I would NOT trade 1st overall, a late 2nd, a late 3rd, and a 6th for 3rd overall, 5th overall, Logan Brown and a bunch of cap-space.

All comes down to me on Hall resigning. If yes I’d seriously consider it.

 

[rt]

All comes down to me on Hall resigning. If yes I’d seriously consider it.

No thanks. If you can re-sign Hall and have a shot at Lafrenière, the easiest decision is to make secondary trades.

Get your handshake with Hall, and draft Lafrenière. Then go make a couple of quick trades:

To DET:
Raanta
Stepan
Grabner

To ARI:
Glendening

To STL
Keller
Fischer

To ARI
Schenn
Kyrou

Hall-Schenn-Schmaltz
Crouse-Dvorak-Garland
Lafrenière-Hayton-Kessel
Richardson-Glendening-Kyrou
Hinostroza

OEL-Demers
Chychrun-Goose
Hjammer-Soderstrom
Lyubushkin

Kuemper
Hill

 

[YotesFan47]

Would you deal 1OV for 3OV and 5OV? We’d likely have to include 41OV as well or possibly a contract like Grabner or Goligoski and maybe Hinostroza. Create cap room to sign Hall....

1OV
Hinostroza
Raanta
Goligoski

for

3OV
5OV
Logan Brown

Yes I would trade it back for 3 and 5 but I wouldn't want to do all that other stuff with Ottawa. I'd then trade the cursed #3 for Philadelphia's 1st, Frost and Ratcliffe and draft Drysdale at #5. Adding a power forward like Ratcliffe could be huge for us. He's probably pretty close to NHL ready now and getting someone like that at a very early age with lots of years left to dominate would be awesome. Frost is a previous teammate of Hayton and could be a great addition to his line in addition to being a center/wing which is a quality Chayka seems to look for.

 

[hbk]

Sam constantino (31 thoughts) confident kings taking Stutzle.

 

[rt]

Sam constantino (31 thoughts) confident kings taking Stutzle.

Makes sense for them. They probably think with Kopitar and Doughty not going anywhere and their prospect pool maturing, they might get their window opened back up for a quick minute. Stutzle could probably play next year, and be an impact player the year after. It seems to me that Byfield is going to be a very long-term project.

 

[PuckLife]

Yes I would trade it back for 3 and 5 but I wouldn't want to do all that other stuff with Ottawa. I'd then trade the cursed #3 for Philadelphia's 1st, Frost and Ratcliffe and draft Drysdale at #5. Adding a power forward like Ratcliffe could be huge for us. He's probably pretty close to NHL ready now and getting someone like that at a very early age with lots of years left to dominate would be awesome. Frost is a previous teammate of Hayton and could be a great addition to his line in addition to being a center/wing which is a quality Chayka seems to look for.

As a Soo Greyhound fan, I love the skill and creativity of Morgan Frost, but he’s too high-risk to see any ice under Toccet.

 

[rt]

Yes I would trade it back for 3 and 5 but I wouldn't want to do all that other stuff with Ottawa. I'd then trade the cursed #3 for Philadelphia's 1st, Frost and Ratcliffe and draft Drysdale at #5. Adding a power forward like Ratcliffe could be huge for us. He's probably pretty close to NHL ready now and getting someone like that at a very early age with lots of years left to dominate would be awesome. Frost is a previous teammate of Hayton and could be a great addition to his line in addition to being a center/wing which is a quality Chayka seems to look for.

Chayka admitted on day two of the 2017 draft that they would have taken Ratcliffe at that spot, if they hadn’t made the deal to trade back with Philadelphia. We instead ended up with Westerlund (bust), Schnarr (traded) and Hoefenmayer (chose not to retain).

Sometimes it’s just better to take your guy than f*** around and play games. Three nickels don’t make a quarter.

Valuable lesson to consider when contemplating doing something so disastrously incompetent as trading down from 1st overall and walking away from the best player in the last two drafts combined.

 

[hbk]

Makes sense for them. They probably think with Kopitar and Doughty not going anywhere and their prospect pool maturing, they might get their window opened back up for a quick minute. Stutzle could probably play next year, and be an impact player the year after. It seems to me that Byfield is going to be a very long-term project.

Just interesting that we have a source saying it’s:

1) Lafrenniere
2) Stutzle
3)
4) Perfetti
5)

so that would mean for Sens they would be looking at Byfield and likely Drysdale or possibly Rossi.

 

[rt]

Just interesting that we have a source saying it’s:

1) Lafrenniere
2) Stutzle
3)
4) Perfetti
5)

so that would mean for Sens they would be looking at Byfield and likely Drysdale or possibly Rossi.

Hadn’t seen the Perfetti thing RE Detroit. You have a link? I’d be curious to read that.

I’d still just take Lafrenière. Rossi, Byfield and Drysdale all have red flags. Lafrenière has none.

Rossi is super short for a center, old for his class, and given he’s just about a finished product physically, he’s got a lower ceiling.

Byfield has a ton to work on and a long road. He’s got to fill out. Then learn to use it. He’s got to start playing a pro-style game. Lots of development. High ceiling, but lower floor than practically anyone else in the top six.

Drysdale is benefiting tremendously from a lack of top defensemen available in this draft. He’s been elevated by slim pickings.

I would not even consider trading Lafrenière.

 

[tucknroll]

Finished my draft list today, so might as well post it. Went with the same idea i did last year where i only list players i would be happy drafting and in the range i would like to see them drafted (my list is not where i think they will necessarily go, I try and keep players 20ish picks within their usual rankings on other lists). Same as last year I'll clarify that the biggest hole in this method that i see is players i don't mind potentially dropping and being overlooked because they aren't on the list. I still see this as an easy problem to fix and with the success my draft list had last year, i decided to keep things fairly similar. For reference i will include my draft last year. Every player on the list has been watched in game and the list has been cut down from roughly 100+ players to 58 players and 6 high schoolers i think should have an eye kept on them. I don't draft high schoolers because their competition is too weak to gauge the players potential very well and most are just too many years away from playing in the NHL
Last years draft:
14- Payton Krebs
45- Nick Robertson
76- Maxim Cajkovic
98- Mattias Maccelli
107- Ethan Keppen (went off list, should have been Mikhail Abramov)
151- Billy Constantinou
174- Yaroslav Likhachyov
176- Dmitri Sheshin
200- Kristian Tanus
207- Dylan Jackson

First Round (1-15)
Alexis Lafrieniere
Tim Strutzle / Lucas Raymond (interchangeable)
Jamie Drysdale
Marco Rossi / Cole Perfetti (interchangeable)
Anton Lundell
Seth Jarvis
Noel Gunler / Dawson Mercer (Interchangeable)
Connor Zary

First round 20-30
Jack Quinn
Maverik Bourque
Hendrix Lapierre
J.J. Peterka

2nd Round
Ridley Greig*
Tyson Foerster*
Thomas Bordeleau
Ryan O'Rourke
Jake Neighbours
Brendan Brisson**

3rd Round
Jean-Luc Foudy*
Roni Hirvonen
Zayde Wisdom
Marat Khusnutdinov
Brock Faber
Luke Tuch
Zion Nybeck**
Alex Laferriere
Tyler Tullio
Emil Heineman**

4th Round
Connor McClennon*
Maxim Beryozkin*
Pavel Novak*
Pavel Gogolev
William Villeneuve
Ethan Cardwell
Alexander Pashin

5th Round
Roman Faith*
Evan Veirling**
Michael Benning
Kristian Tanus
Billy Constantinou
Kasper Puutio**
Veeti Miettinen**

6th Round
Lleyton Moore
Dmitri Sheshin
Samuel Johannson
Alexander Nikishin
Luke Prokop**

7th Round
Dylan Jackson
Ty Jackson
Stephen Halliday
Trevor Kuntar
Yaroslav Likhachyov
Adam Wilsby
Reid Valade**
Nikolia Mayorov**

High Schoolers (no specific order)
Shane Donovan
Nic Gustafson
Jimmy Mettler
Joe Miller
Grant Slukynsky
Jack Smith

* means i'm a fan and would consider drafting them earlier than i have listed. Though i think they have a chance to be available in the round i have them and could be a steal.
** means they almost didn't make the list (many different reasons why this may be)