There is a chart that helps with this. If I was smarter I would have saved last years version.
Prospect Info: 2020 NHL Entry Draft (Round #1 - 10/6/20 @ 7pm ET)
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rt
The Kinder, Gentler Version
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Relegate the Oilers
Seems like there's a lot of confusion about the multi phase draft lottery (which is understandable since the NHL did a horrible job explaining it...)
As I understand it, if any of the "placeholder teams" win any of the top 3 picks, then "phase two" of the draft would take place after the play in round is complete, and the 8 teams eliminated would each have an EQUAL (12.5%) chance at winning that pick. The pick would not automatically go to who ever falls into that placeholder spot (ie. permutations about final rankings won't matter, so if the Montreal Canadians for example lose and rank 8th last, and one of the lottery picks go to the "place holder" 8th last team, it won't necessarily go to Montreal, ALL of the teams who lose the play in round would have an equal shot at it)
This is pretty exciting for us actually. Let's say the first overall pick is not won by any of the bottom 7 teams (any of the 8 placeholders could win, doesn't matter who since it just means the pick goes to a phase two draw). If the Coyotes lose against Nashville, we would have a 1/8 chance at that first overall pick, and as I understand, lottery protected now again... Imagine if all three draws in phase 1 are placeholder teams. The losing play in teams would all have a 3/8 shot at a top 3 pick.
Ultimately it will depend how the first phase goes, but if that first overall pick is won by a placeholder spot, things get a lot more exciting for sure. Come on Taylor Hall effect & Laffrenierre.
More explanation here:
NHL announces plans for return to play, 2020 draft lottery - Sportsnet.ca
As I understand it, if any of the "placeholder teams" win any of the top 3 picks, then "phase two" of the draft would take place after the play in round is complete, and the 8 teams eliminated would each have an EQUAL (12.5%) chance at winning that pick. The pick would not automatically go to who ever falls into that placeholder spot (ie. permutations about final rankings won't matter, so if the Montreal Canadians for example lose and rank 8th last, and one of the lottery picks go to the "place holder" 8th last team, it won't necessarily go to Montreal, ALL of the teams who lose the play in round would have an equal shot at it)
This is pretty exciting for us actually. Let's say the first overall pick is not won by any of the bottom 7 teams (any of the 8 placeholders could win, doesn't matter who since it just means the pick goes to a phase two draw). If the Coyotes lose against Nashville, we would have a 1/8 chance at that first overall pick, and as I understand, lottery protected now again... Imagine if all three draws in phase 1 are placeholder teams. The losing play in teams would all have a 3/8 shot at a top 3 pick.
Ultimately it will depend how the first phase goes, but if that first overall pick is won by a placeholder spot, things get a lot more exciting for sure. Come on Taylor Hall effect & Laffrenierre.
More explanation here:
NHL announces plans for return to play, 2020 draft lottery - Sportsnet.ca
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rt
The Kinder, Gentler Version
Qualifying Round Team A -- 6.0%
Qualifying Round Team B -- 5.0%
Qualifying Round Team C -- 3.5%
Qualifying Round Team D -- 3.0%
Qualifying Round Team E -- 2.5%
Qualifying Round Team F -- 2.0%
Qualifying Round Team G -- 1.5%
Qualifying Round Team H -- 1.0%
So does that mean there’s a 25% chance a QRT wins 1st overall. And then each team in the QRT loser pool has a 12.5% chance?
Just checking, if the Coyotes did end up with a top 3 pick, they'd get to keep it? The 1st given to NJ for the Taylor Hall trade was "lottery-protected" so should cover this eventuality?
We would keep it and draft one of Byfield, Stutzle, Rossi, Perfetti, or Quinn.
I’m a Rossi fan (great podcast with his coach on NHL Draft Class that’s worth checking out) but the upside potential of Byfield would be extremely difficult to pass on.
BUX7PHX
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After reading, this, that is my interpretation as well.
That is a very odd way of doing things, though. The reason why A through H all have various percentages attached to their names is because they should have less of a chance to win the lottery. In my eyes, if it is determined that one of the QRT teams won the lottery, the corresponding draw should be the following:
Total percentage of QRT teams = 6.0% + 5.0% + 3.5% + 3.0% + 2.5% + 2.0% + 1.5% + 1.0% = 24.5% total
Therefore, Team A should have 6.0% / 24.5% = 24.49% chance of being the QRT team that won the #1 OA. To me this makes sense, because the team that qualifies as team H should be the lowest of winning the lottery, relative to the others:
Team A = 24.49%
Team B = 20.41%
Team C = 14.29%
Team D = 12.24%
Team E = 10.20%
Team F = 8.16%
Team G = 6.12%
Team H = 4.08%
BUX7PHX
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^^^^
Seeing that above - the Coyotes, as usual, are in the worst position.
Arizona can't be lower than Team C. So, in the suggested methodology that I provided, Arizona would actually be losing 1.79% if all 8 teams are created equally under the 12.5% chance to each team. If the Coyotes were to somehow fall into the team A or B category, that difference is further magnified.
Seeing that above - the Coyotes, as usual, are in the worst position.
Arizona can't be lower than Team C. So, in the suggested methodology that I provided, Arizona would actually be losing 1.79% if all 8 teams are created equally under the 12.5% chance to each team. If the Coyotes were to somehow fall into the team A or B category, that difference is further magnified.
Just beat Nashville and none of this matters.
rt
The Kinder, Gentler Version
BUX7PHX
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You are correct about that. There is just that feeling that even if Hall is the gift that keeps giving, with regard to the #1 pick, you know that somehow they would announce that team C was the QRT pick that landed 1st OA, but then with every one of the 8 teams having a 12.5% chance, team G or H will probably win, even though they should have the lowest remaining odds, regardless.
rt
The Kinder, Gentler Version
rt
The Kinder, Gentler Version
Having just traded POJ and Bahl and with Hjalmarsson, Goligoski, Demers, and Oesterle I’m expiring deals, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see Chayka take a D with our first picks (whether it’s 3rd overall, or in the 40s).
rt
The Kinder, Gentler Version
I’d definitely pick Byfield over Rossi just due to absolute upside but Byfield worries me more than Rossi. Byfield seems to play a much less pro-style game. He’s still a bean-pole, too. He’s got a ton to work on. Rossi, just looks like an NHL player right now.
Rossi could definitely step into the NHL right now, depending on who picks him. He's well built and he's got maybe the best hockey IQ in the draft. He's close to a finished product. He already played in the Austria men's league so going pro next season shouldn't be as big a jump. Also a late birthday so he's a little older than most.
At the beginning of the year I thought Byfield would go straight to the NHL but now I think he could benefit more from going back to the OHL. He had a decent season but there is a LOT of room for growth there. Needs to fill out physically and become more dominant, so he just needs time. Could use a better supporting cast in Sudbury. Needs to be "the guy" at the WJC.
At the beginning of the year I thought Byfield would go straight to the NHL but now I think he could benefit more from going back to the OHL. He had a decent season but there is a LOT of room for growth there. Needs to fill out physically and become more dominant, so he just needs time. Could use a better supporting cast in Sudbury. Needs to be "the guy" at the WJC.
rt
The Kinder, Gentler Version
I also want to see Byfield play more like an NHL center in a lot of ways. Better at slowing it down, pulling up, setting the table, cycling. All of that. It can’t all be off the rush and off of controlled entries. Not saying he doesn’t have that. Scouting reports call it out, though. That stuff doesn’t work as well in the NHL. He seems to have the perfect approach for the OHL but that’s going to need to be adjusted. He should be able to. I’d pick him 2nd. But there’s stuff he’s got to work on, both on and off the ice (too skinny still).
rt
The Kinder, Gentler Version
I haven’t seen enough. Also, he doesn’t seem to play like most 6’4 centers play. So it’s tough to come up with names that seem right. I think you hope he’s more of a Seguin but fear he’s more of a Schmaltz?
BUX7PHX
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Yes and no - for general baselines, it works fine. But each year is different. If the cutoff of "good" players ends at 30, then you need to have a lot of value to move to that draft position than if the cutoff was 44 players. Teams have different ideas of trade value. Does anyone think that we had any inside knowledge as to what the Rangers were going to do with the pick when we grabbed Stepan and Raanta from them? I doubt that played any part in it, but if you were to trade a pick away and still have a late 1st rounder, like we did in that draft, wouldn't you want to trade it to a team that was taking a player whom you either did not have high on your list, or that you were not going to take, even if available later?
The thing with this particular draft is that there are a number of teams with multiple picks between the 42 and 102 picks (AZ picks at 41 and 103):
Ottawa - 6 picks
Montreal - 5 picks
Los Angeles - 5 picks
Detroit - 4 picks
Carolina - 4 picks
Chicago - 4 picks
If the draft is as widely ranged in the 2nd round, I think you start to see these teams ensure that they get the top player on their board at the time. Hopefully, it coincides that there are multiple teams being talked to about a trade, and that their list does not assimilate your rankings. I think that it is probably a wish to see 41 and 134 net 52 and 53. But, if the player is that highly coveted, and a team like Detroit is offering 51 and 60 for the same price and same player, then you have to strongly consider upping the offer to ensure being able to move up.
So, yes, the charts help, but they don't include the variables of who is being targeted, what and how many teams are targeting that spot, and what ammunition each has to offer. Maybe you don't trade with a team not because of who they take at 41, but because they have another team in between 41 and the pick that you move to that is targeting the player you want. Ultimately, I think teams trade for two reasons: their board dictates to do so (meaning the player rank supersedes the pick number), and the player is falling into a different tier from what was earlier projected.
We have two excellent examples of both: Soderstrom is the first example - Chychrun is mostly the 2nd, with a small splash of the 1st reasoning mixed in. Even though we had Soderstrom ranked 3rd on our board, that doesn't necessarily mean that we are going to trade up to 3 to get him. It just means that at a certain point (let's say pick #8), our big board consists of the following order on our board:
#3
#8
#10
#11
#12
#13
#14
On our list, 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 9 have been drafted. The #8 team selects the #8 ranked player on our board. At that point, you don't really care about the cost. The ability to grab your 3rd ranked player is now closer to reality, and the reward outweighs the risk. The range is a little closer to where the #14 pick and #9 pick have some gap to close. It is possible that #14 and #45 would have netted us just #9 alone, and we overpaid slightly. If another offer was there or the #3 ranked player would not have made it to our pick, that changes the value. Likewise, if the teams at 11, 12, and 13 were all stocked at defensemen in the pipeline, one can't rest because those teams may be looking just as hard at trading back, and you don't want to be the team who waits. How much of an ass-kick would it be to wait on teams and then have an offer come in right from under your nose to pluck that player from you?
I would draft Byfield 1st OA. Don't mess around with trades just fix our decades long 1C problem in one move.
I’d trade down to 2 and pick something up if u were dead set on Byfield. Laperierre looked great playing with Hayton at the Worlds. He would be very hard to pass on. I’m not sold Byfield is a 1C myself. He could “just” be a very good 2C. Not a great year to not have my OHL package.
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