Prospect Info: 2020 NHL Draft Thread Vol. 1

[Bender B Rodriguez]

Really looking forward the draft as there's been so much time to read/listen prospect analyzes and watch highlights compared to normal year.

It seems to be quite deep draft, wouldn't mind if Flyers trade for third rounder or so. When looking their prospect pool and potential players available late first round, you would think Flyers go with forward there. Then RD in the 2nd would fill up positional prospect pool quite nicely.

 

[IronMarshal]

It's obvious what they're doing, it's a 2-player draft at the top, and they're trying to make sure Detroit gets one while no one is looking, preferably the 1st pick

It is pretty sure thing that Lafreniere is the number 1 guy. Byfield is intiguing due to his massive size skill combination and potential Malkin like upside. He may end up better than Lafreniere, but Lafreniere is more of a sure all star caliber player.

Rumors have it that there are teams who prefer Stutzle or Raymond over Byfield, but most think it goes Lafreniere first, Byfield second. It will be very interesting watching the how the top 10 go. Most people have about 11 or 12 guys that are all in their top 12, and the top 9 are probably Lafreniere followed by Byfield, Stutzle, followed by some mix of Raymond, Drysdale, Holtz, Rossi, and Perfetti and Lundell. It is a lot more scrambled after that.

 

[GKJ]

It is pretty sure thing that Lafreniere is the number 1 guy. Byfield is intiguing due to his massive size skill combination and potential Malkin like upside. He may end up better than Lafreniere, but Lafreniere is more of a sure all star caliber player.

Rumors have it that there are teams who prefer Stutzle or Raymond over Byfield, but most think it goes Lafreniere first, Byfield second. It will be very interesting watching the how the top 10 go. Most people have about 11 or 12 guys that are all in their top 12, and the top 9 are probably Lafreniere followed by Byfield, Stutzle, followed by some mix of Raymond, Drysdale, Holtz, Rossi, and Perfetti and Lundell. It is a lot more scrambled after that.

Lafreniere is definitely going 1st and he's going to be in Detroit if the league has their way

 

[Adtar02]

Lafreniere and Byfield are good but they are a lot closer to 3, 4, 5 than people may want to believe. Rossi had an equally good, if not better, season than those two. Stutzle had the best 17 year old season ever in the DEL. Raymond got overshadowed this year but he was as accomplished as anyone prior to this season.

Anyone picking in the top 5 will get a player.


It's certainly not a death sentence, just more of a reminder that pick volume trumps individual player selection over the long haul. The NHL draft is great because unlike basketball or football, you don't need to consider roster spots when you make selections. You just play the lottery and when you are dealing with projecting teenagers, you want as many numbers as possible.

And I like the potential of the board in that range of the draft. I imagine it will be painful watching the names coming off the board as the team goes ~60 picks without a selection.

Yeah. Going 60 picks in that range will hurt this year. And normally we might have had a chance to grab one or two after the season with trades.

 

[TB87]

Anyone familiar with overager Alex Cotton? Racked up points like a bandit in his Draft+1

Would he be worth a dart throw in the mid-to-late rounds?

 

[FLYguy3911]

Anyone familiar with overager Alex Cotton? Racked up points like a bandit in his Draft+1

Would he be worth a dart throw in the mid-to-late rounds?

Seen him in passing but not enough to offer a detailed opinion on his on-ice play. Slowly working my way through the WHL, not much there this year. Seemed to look to push the play forward. Not sure how great he is defensively. Lethbridge had a (slightly) better ES goal differential when he wasn't on the ice. That said 2nd year junior players that lead their leagues in scoring aren't that common (Sanheim did it). He's a RH shot too which helps. If he's there in the 4th round, you have to consider him, but I don't think he will be. These guys have trade value if nothing else (see teammate Calen Addison).

The "problem" with taking a guy like him, is you are really only getting one year to sit on him and develop him before he turns pro. You have to be really convinced that he's a player. After taking 3 overagers last year, the Flyers may be smart to play the odds a bit and draft younger players or at least players that can marinate a bit in college or Europe.

 

[Appleyard]

 

[Appleyard]

 

[Appleyard]

 

[FLYguy3911]

Evangelista has one of the weirdest statistical profiles I've seen. He only had 2 PP points all year which gives you hope that he could breakout next year but he's so extreme you also have to ask, why wasn't he used on the PP? Yes it's London, but it's not 2014 London.

His ES counting stats are great but his ES involvement is below 30% (top ES scorers in the CHL are usually around 40%) and his primary involvement at ES is below 20% (Top scorers are closer to 30%) which is fine, but combined with a negative goal differential relative to teammates you have to wonder how much he was truly driving the bus there.

Francis is a late 01 and a 3rd year player in the Q who regressed statistically as a 17 year old after a promising rookie season. He had a good bounce-back year but Sokolov was so dominant (arguably second best ES scorer this year among draft eligibles) I wonder how much he was just a product of his environment.

Xavier Simoneau is 6 months older and may go undrafted again. Think I may rather have him late if this were a hypothetical. I at least feel confident he wasn't a passenger.

 

[Appleyard]

Evangelista has one of the weirdest statistical profiles I've seen. He only had 2 PP points all year which gives you hope that he could breakout next year but he's so extreme you also have to ask, why wasn't he used on the PP? Yes it's London, but it's not 2014 London.

His ES counting stats are great but his ES involvement is below 30% (top ES scorers in the CHL are usually around 40%) and his primary involvement at ES is below 20% (Top scorers are closer to 30%) which is fine, but combined with a negative goal differential relative to teammates you have to wonder how much he was truly driving the bus there.

Francis is a late 01 and a 3rd year player in the Q who regressed statistically as a 17 year old after a promising rookie season. He had a good bounce-back year but Sokolov was so dominant (arguably second best ES scorer this year among draft eligibles) I wonder how much he was just a product of his environment.

Xavier Simoneau is 6 months older and may go undrafted again. Think I may rather have him late if this were a hypothetical. I at least feel confident he wasn't a passenger.

Oh, I would not take either in the first round... I think there will be better players available.

But if they make it to the 2nd, especially given their skillsets and tools as well, I think they could be pretty good picks. Dont think either have more than 2nd line, 50 point upside... and if say Niederbacher or Simontaival etc fell to the 50's I would rather try for a homerun. But still. I would add in that Evangelista was by all accounts one of the best PP runners in AAA before coming to the OHL, and does look a very good passer when game slows down. Even though doubt he would be on a PP1 in the NHL.

 

[FLYguy3911]

My hunch is that there is about a one round gap between these two. I think Evangelista goes closer to the Flyers 1st round pick than their 2nd and that Francis is closer to a 3rd round pick than a 1st rounder. We'll see.

I think I found the perfect comparison for Sokolov - Beer League version of Laine. I was watching a Cape Breton game last night and he put Poirier in a pretzel. He looks like he's 35 though.

 

[Chinatown88]

Pipe dream never gonna happen wants: Stutzle and Drysdale

Realistic: Mysak, Chromiak, Bourque

 

[Stizzle]

What do you gentlemen think about Justin Barron? I remember liking him at the 2019 Hlinka. Barron's skating made him immediately noticeable, and he was getting big minutes for Canada.

At the time, he was hyped as likely going high in the 2020 draft by Button. Has the blood cot in his shoulder and playing on a very poor Q team pushed him down into our range, or were big flaws present beforehand?

 

[FLYguy3911]

What do you gentlemen think about Justin Barron? I remember liking him at the 2019 Hlinka. Barron's skating made him immediately noticeable, and he was getting big minutes for Canada.

At the time, he was hyped as likely going high in the 2020 draft by Button. Has the blood cot in his shoulder and playing on a very poor Q team pushed him down into our range, or were big flaws present beforehand?

I liked him last year at the Hlinka too, but his year was so bad when he was on the ice, I'd probably have him on my 'Do Not Draft' list if I had one. As a late 01 and 3rd year junior player, he's not someone I really want to bet on. I don't really like the CHL defensemen this year. Schneider and Guhle are kind of in that same boat - meh. Guhle if I were forced to pick. Poirier is the most talented (even if you include Drysdale imo) and if Saint John has another Chabot he's it, but he will leave you scratching your head quite often. Ultimate boom or bust.

Every year I hope to be wooed by a RHD but it just never seems to happen.

 

[Appleyard]

Story of the draft.

Amazing forwards with a lot of depth there as well.

Very few defensemen without major questions or obvious flaws... I.E. two. (Drysdale and Sanderson).

I dont "mind" Andrae, Grans, Guhle and Wallinder as late 1st round picks in terms of ability. But I also have a very hard time seeing them being BPA at 26.

 

[renberg]

BPA at 26.

Unless there is someone that the Flyers really love earlier in the draft and the price to move up is not exorbitant, the thing to do is set back and see how things go and then go BPA. It scares me when you try to fight the draft and jump up. Some would have paid the price to get Caufield last year but Fletcher played it cool and got Brink instead further down the line. It was an excellent strategy.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Sounds like the early June draft probably isn’t happening by the lack of official public word. Sounds like behind the scenes organizations are complaining about it.

It could still happen end of June though.

 

[TB87]

Using the following as a starting point, here are the CHL FWDS that I’m going to try to get a decent amount of viewings on prior to the draft:

***Even-Strength Involvement% of at least 30% ***

AND

***Even-Strength Primary Involvement% of at least 25% ***


(1): OHL FWDS who fit the above criteria

(2): WHL FWDS who fit the above criteria

(3): QMJHL FWDS who fit the above criteria

The goal is to get in viewings of forwards who drive their own offensive output/production.

I’m going to focus a lot more on the above players not named Lafreniere, Byfield, Rossi, & Perfetti.


*****FWDS with at least 30 games played*****


QMJHL forwards look like mighty slim picking’s this year

 

[FlyguyOX]

My guys at Flyers spot-

Amirov
Jarvis
Wallinder
Gunler
Lappiere
JJ-P

In order of preference. One should fall to us.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Jarvis is going just outside the top 10 I feel.

 

[Appleyard]

There is more variation in the "middle" tier (0.21-0.34) than you see with forwards in terms of outcome based on scoring... but top tier and bottom tiers of scoring in CHL draft year are quite good indicators.

 

[TB87]

I don’t want this and neither should the Flyers:

Drafting injured players is a gamble that teams lose...a lot

Hard No.

 

[Appleyard]

I don’t want this and neither should the Flyers:

View attachment 345561


Drafting injured players is a gamble that teams lose...a lot

Hard No.

I like his game...

BUT considering that there is a high likelihood that multiple of Brisson, Lapierre and Nybeck are there, who all have high upside too, seems like a risk, even if *usually* one I might make for the upside with Flyers depth.

 

[TB87]

I like his game...

BUT considering that there is a high likelihood that multiple of Brisson, Lapierre and Nybeck are there, who all have high upside too, seems like a risk, even if *usually* one I might make for the upside with Flyers depth.

Was able to get in some viewings recently and Lapierre IS a good player. The injuries are for sure concerning though. If I had to pick between the two, I'd go Brisson over Lapierre at 26 (if thats where the Flyers end up picking).



Lapierre without an extensive draft year injury history would be a solid bet in the late 1st.

Yet...that's an Earth 2.0 scenario