Prospect Info: 2020 NHL Draft - Part III

[TBF1972]

Hard pass on Askarov unless it's Vancouvers pick and it's 20+ and even then I still don't really want to do it.

We all know goalies are a less predictable and they often need quite a long time to develop into NHL material, but at a certain point the risk versus reward certainly flips in favor of a goalie.

2003 was the last year a goalie was picked #1 and Fleury was not a bad pick. There were three goalies (Crawford and Howard were the others) picked in the first two rounds and all became NHL starter. Only later round picks turned into NHL were Halak and Elliot.
2004 had four goalies picked in the first round: Dubnyk and Schneider turned into starters, Montoya and Schwarz busted. Rinne was a brilliant pick in the 8th round. Other notables Greiss (3rd) and Khudobin (7th).
2005 the two first round picks turned into star goaltenders (Price and Rask). The other notables, mostly Quick (3rd) and Bishop (3rd) were all picked early.
2006 saw 9 goalies picked in the first 3 rounds. None of them was truly great, still Bernier, Varlamov, Neuvirth and Mason easily beat out the later round picks.
2007 had no goalie Darling.
2008 both first round picks turned into nothing. Half of the second round picks also flopped, while both Markstrom and Allen had a remarkable NHL careers. Holty is the cream of this draft as fourth round pick.
2009 goalies started to get less valued in drafts. No first round picks, only two in the second. Koskinen remained in Europe for very long. Lehner was a good choice. Kuemper in the sixth round outperformed expectation.
2010 saw some early picks. Anderson (7th) is the only name shining, but he wasn't signed by Carolina and went in the redraft 2012 to Anaheim.
2011 has no 1st round picks, but three each in the next two rounds. Gibson was the second picked, Binnington the sixth. All other goalies haven't done much.
2012 Vasilevskiy and Subban made the first round. In a redraft Vasilevskiy should go #1. It was a good year for goalies anyway as Anderson (3rd), Murray (3rd) and Hellebuyck (5th) all turned into NHL starters.
Goalies really take a long time to groom. For 2013 the grade is still incomplete. Jarry (2nd) and Saros (4th) are still backups. Peterson (5th) is another one with a chance to become a starter.

New Jersey's starters Brodeur (1st), Schneider (1st) and Blackwood (2nd) were all picked early. To say good goalies are equally likely to be found in the late rounds as in the early rounds is simply not true.

Askarov was billed as the best goalie prospect since Price in 2005. While you might not agree with this assessment, he would not be a bad pick with Arizona pick and should definitely be considered with the Vancouver pick. There is nothing behind Blackwood in the pipeline, which screams NHL material.

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

We all know goalies are a less predictable and they often need quite a long time to develop into NHL material, but at a certain point the risk versus reward certainly flips in favor of a goalie.

2003 was the last year a goalie was picked #1 and Fleury was not a bad pick. There were three goalies (Crawford and Howard were the others) picked in the first two rounds and all became NHL starter. Only later round picks turned into NHL were Halak and Elliot.
2004 had four goalies picked in the first round: Dubnyk and Schneider turned into starters, Montoya and Schwarz busted. Rinne was a brilliant pick in the 8th round. Other notables Greiss (3rd) and Khudobin (7th).
2005 the two first round picks turned into star goaltenders (Price and Rask). The other notables, mostly Quick (3rd) and Bishop (3rd) were all picked early.
2006 saw 9 goalies picked in the first 3 rounds. None of them was truly great, still Bernier, Varlamov, Neuvirth and Mason easily beat out the later round picks.
2007 had no goalie Darling.
2008 both first round picks turned into nothing. Half of the second round picks also flopped, while both Markstrom and Allen had a remarkable NHL careers. Holty is the cream of this draft as fourth round pick.
2009 goalies started to get less valued in drafts. No first round picks, only two in the second. Koskinen remained in Europe for very long. Lehner was a good choice. Kuemper in the sixth round outperformed expectation.
2010 saw some early picks. Anderson (7th) is the only name shining, but he wasn't signed by Carolina and went in the redraft 2012 to Anaheim.
2011 has no 1st round picks, but three each in the next two rounds. Gibson was the second picked, Binnington the sixth. All other goalies haven't done much.
2012 Vasilevskiy and Subban made the first round. In a redraft Vasilevskiy should go #1. It was a good year for goalies anyway as Anderson (3rd), Murray (3rd) and Hellebuyck (5th) all turned into NHL starters.
Goalies really take a long time to groom. For 2013 the grade is still incomplete. Jarry (2nd) and Saros (4th) are still backups. Peterson (5th) is another one with a chance to become a starter.

New Jersey's starters Brodeur (1st), Schneider (1st) and Blackwood (2nd) were all picked early. To say good goalies are equally likely to be found in the late rounds as in the early rounds is simply not true.

Askarov was billed as the best goalie prospect since Price in 2005. While you might not agree with this assessment, he would not be a bad pick with Arizona pick and should definitely be considered with the Vancouver pick. There is nothing behind Blackwood in the pipeline, which screams NHL material.

Informative post. The one point I would make is that according to what I have read the Analytics Department is gaining influence in the Devils org. I have no idea what type of metrics they are using, but some of the available ones can favor G's over D. As we know there is no perfect stat that can compare all players, but I remembered an old (2015) article that was discussing using GAR when reading your post. The interesting point to note is that no D was in the 15-20 GAR range in that time period.

Just to repeat, I am not saying this is the "be all end all" or that I even agree with it, but it is possible the Devils are using a metric that favors one position over another. If the Scouting Department rates Askarov highly and is available where the Devils would want to pick him, it could come down to what type of metrics Fitz views as important.

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

I dug deep through the last 10 drafts a week or two ago. Basically most of the good goalies in this league were picked in the 2nd to 4th round. 1st round pick goalies latley have been pretty good so far development wise (Vaslivesky ,Knight , Samsonov , Oettinger etc) but there was busts like Vistenin , Campbell etc in the earlier part of the decade.

 

[Goptor]

I think goalies become less valuable proportionally to the amount of good goalies are in the league. There are just too few roster spots available. A top goalie is worth a top 5 pick if there are only 5 elite goalies and 20 starter quality goalies in the league. That same player may only be worth a mid-20s pick if there are 10+ elite goaltenders and 40 starter level players in the league..

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

I think goalies become less valuable proportionally to the amount of good goalies are in the league. There are just too few roster spots available. A top goalie is worth a top 5 pick if there are only 5 elite goalies and 20 starter quality goalies in the league. That same player may only be worth a mid-20s pick if there are 10+ elite goaltenders and 40 starter level players in the league..

The problem with that logic is that few goalies play in the NHL before they are around 23. My friends and I looked up the last 5 years and used 40 games as a threshold. 5 goalies hit that number in the previous 5 seasons to 2019-20. How could you predict how many "elite" goalies will be in the league 4 years from now?

 

[Goptor]

The problem with that logic is that few goalies play in the NHL before they are around 23. My friends and I looked up the last 5 years and used 40 games as a threshold. 5 goalies hit that number in the previous 5 seasons to 2019-20. How could you predict how many "elite" goalies will be in the league 4 years from now?

Thats the difficulty with drafting goaltenders. If you picked up a good goalie when the goalie pool is weak you are a yearly contender. If you miss out then you are tanking each season hoping to get an elite goalie in the top 5 picks. That what happened in the early 2000s with Fleury, Blackburn, DiPietro, etc.

Now -do you think that there is real trend with the top goalies falling apart (Schneider, Quick, Price, Fleury, Bobrovsky, Holtby, etc.)? If you think the trend will continue, then it is important to grab a goalie in the first round this year.

Do you think that the drop in numbers is a temporary thing linked partly with those guys getting older? Will some of those players bounce back and keep the goaltender pool strong? If so, then it may not be worth grabbing a goalie when Blackwood is already here.

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

Thats the difficulty with drafting goaltenders. If you picked up a good goalie when the goalie pool is weak you are a yearly contender. If you miss out then you are tanking each season hoping to get an elite goalie in the top 5 picks. That what happened in the early 2000s with Fleury, Blackburn, DiPietro, etc.

Now -do you think that there is real trend with the top goalies falling apart (Schneider, Quick, Price, Fleury, Bobrovsky, Holtby, etc.)? If you think the trend will continue, then it is important to grab a goalie in the first round this year.

Do you think that the drop in numbers is a temporary thing linked partly with those guys getting older? Will some of those players bounce back and keep the goaltender pool strong? If so, then it may not be worth grabbing a goalie when Blackwood is already here.

That is the difficulty with drafting any position. Should the Devils draft a C? Will Hischier/Hughes develop into high producers? Different posters have different opinions.

With respect to goalies declining, I go by the data. Obviously everybody does not age the same but this is what I would use.

Conclusion: I’m going to use the Linear aging curve going forward in my Hockey Marcels, but no matter which one you use a few points are still clear:
1. Goalies don’t improve as they get older
2. By age 30, goalie decline starts to get REALLY noticable
3. By mid-30s, even with the aging line, goalies rapidly start to fall apart.

How well do goalies age? A look at a goalie aging curve.

 

[nugg]

It would be hard to justify taking a goaltender in the first round when the greatest weaknesses of the roster are scoring finish, size and lack of top pairing defenseman potential. That said, go BPA or go home.

 

[Bleedred]

We all know goalies are a less predictable and they often need quite a long time to develop into NHL material, but at a certain point the risk versus reward certainly flips in favor of a goalie.

2003 was the last year a goalie was picked #1 and Fleury was not a bad pick. There were three goalies (Crawford and Howard were the others) picked in the first two rounds and all became NHL starter. Only later round picks turned into NHL were Halak and Elliot.
2004 had four goalies picked in the first round: Dubnyk and Schneider turned into starters, Montoya and Schwarz busted. Rinne was a brilliant pick in the 8th round. Other notables Greiss (3rd) and Khudobin (7th).
2005 the two first round picks turned into star goaltenders (Price and Rask). The other notables, mostly Quick (3rd) and Bishop (3rd) were all picked early.
2006 saw 9 goalies picked in the first 3 rounds. None of them was truly great, still Bernier, Varlamov, Neuvirth and Mason easily beat out the later round picks.
2007 had no goalie Darling.
2008 both first round picks turned into nothing. Half of the second round picks also flopped, while both Markstrom and Allen had a remarkable NHL careers. Holty is the cream of this draft as fourth round pick.
2009 goalies started to get less valued in drafts. No first round picks, only two in the second. Koskinen remained in Europe for very long. Lehner was a good choice. Kuemper in the sixth round outperformed expectation.
2010 saw some early picks. Anderson (7th) is the only name shining, but he wasn't signed by Carolina and went in the redraft 2012 to Anaheim.
2011 has no 1st round picks, but three each in the next two rounds. Gibson was the second picked, Binnington the sixth. All other goalies haven't done much.
2012 Vasilevskiy and Subban made the first round. In a redraft Vasilevskiy should go #1. It was a good year for goalies anyway as Anderson (3rd), Murray (3rd) and Hellebuyck (5th) all turned into NHL starters.
Goalies really take a long time to groom. For 2013 the grade is still incomplete. Jarry (2nd) and Saros (4th) are still backups. Peterson (5th) is another one with a chance to become a starter.

New Jersey's starters Brodeur (1st), Schneider (1st) and Blackwood (2nd) were all picked early. To say good goalies are equally likely to be found in the late rounds as in the early rounds is simply not true.

Askarov was billed as the best goalie prospect since Price in 2005. While you might not agree with this assessment, he would not be a bad pick with Arizona pick and should definitely be considered with the Vancouver pick. There is nothing behind Blackwood in the pipeline, which screams NHL material.

I wouldn’t mind Askarov either, because Blackwood could be a UFA by the time he’s ready to play in the NHL.

I’m not sure if our current goalie depth behind Blackwood has any NHL future. Senn could have gotten a longer look later in the season, but they opted to bring back Cory instead.

 

[Goptor]

That is the difficulty with drafting any position. Should the Devils draft a C? Will Hischier/Hughes develop into high producers? Different posters have different opinions.

With respect to goalies declining, I go by the data. Obviously everybody does not age the same but this is what I would use.

Conclusion: I’m going to use the Linear aging curve going forward in my Hockey Marcels, but no matter which one you use a few points are still clear:
1. Goalies don’t improve as they get older
2. By age 30, goalie decline starts to get REALLY noticable
3. By mid-30s, even with the aging line, goalies rapidly start to fall apart.

How well do goalies age? A look at a goalie aging curve.

Forwards and Defensemen will always remain valuable because its impossible to fill out the league with high-end talent. There's too much roster spots available. I'm saying that the goalie's value depends less on expected value and more about how much of his peers have succeeded. If there are plenty of good goalies in the league its easy to fill the spot by other means. It causes goalies to drop in draft rank below their expected position. If there are not enough good goalies in the league then the draft is the only way to pick someone up. They'll then get drafted way above their expected draft position.

It's similar to QB is the NFL. You don't draft a QB in the top 5 for the average expected value. You draft the QB because the position is important and is even more difficult to fill by other means.

 

[NJ DevLolz]

Guys like Sanderson really shouldn't be top picks. it's a fool's errand to project defensive play in juniors and his offensive game isn't special at all. if we get one of the stud forwards, then maybe I could be talked into it with Arizona's pick. However, in a vacuum he's probably not going to be worth it.

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

Forwards and Defensemen will always remain valuable because its impossible to fill out the league with high-end talent. There's too much roster spots available. I'm saying that the goalie's value depends less on expected value and more about how much of his peers have succeeded. If there are plenty of good goalies in the league its easy to fill the spot by other means. It causes goalies to drop in draft rank below their expected position. If there are not enough good goalies in the league then the draft is the only way to pick someone up. They'll then get drafted way above their expected draft position.

It's similar to QB is the NFL. You don't draft a QB in the top 5 for the average expected value. You draft the QB because the position is important and is even more difficult to fill by other means.

Now I get where our disconnect is. If the Devils are considering Askarov in the first round IMO it would be because the scouts view him as an impact player. I am thinking Price in his prime type impact.

 

[Mike27Devils]

My top 31 players at the moment (not including goalies)
Lafrenierre
Stutzle
Rossi
Raymond
Sanderson
Byfield
Drysdale
Perfetti
Quinn
Holtz
Amirov
Gunler
Zary
Jarvis
Poirier
Lundell
Lapierre
Bourque
Mercer
Holloway
Nybeck
Perrault
Wiesblatt
Schneider
Reichel
Guhle
Mysak
Wallinder
Borderleau
Ponomaryov
Andrae

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

Guys like Sanderson really shouldn't be top picks. it's a fool's errand to project defensive play in juniors and his offensive game isn't special at all. if we get one of the stud forwards, then maybe I could be talked into it with Arizona's pick. However, in a vacuum he's probably not going to be worth it.

I am with you. No way do you take a player like Sanderson at 6 and I doubt the Devils would. If indeed the Devils are going to be a team driven by analytics a defender with size and untapped offensive potential at 6 is not happening. I remember the Devils picked a forward with size and untapped offensive potential at 6 and some posters are still constantly complaining about the pick.

 

[Mike27Devils]

I am with you. No way do you take a player like Sanderson at 6 and I doubt the Devils would. If indeed the Devils are going to be a team driven by analytics a defender with size and untapped offensive potential at 6 is not happening. I remember the Devils picked a forward with size and untapped offensive potential at 6 and some posters are still constantly complaining about the pick.

Sanderson may be one of the best defenders to come out of the NTDP in the last 10 years. The scouting community is currently raving about him and many think he is better than Drysdale at the moment. We need a #1 d man above everything else and he has that kind of upside. There's a decent chance he goes top 5 and is pretty much a lock in the top 10 at the moment. Seider was picked 6th overall last year and many thought he was a reach that high. Now Yzerman is looking really good at the moment cause he was the best defender at the WJC. He would be a good pick at 6th for the devils but IMO I would rather have a Raymond or a Rossi if available.

Some pretty high praise from his coach is below. Obviously the coach has gotta pump his kids up for the draft and make the program look even better, but I believe he is honest in his assessment.
"I'd be shocked if Jake Sanderson isn't selected top-10 in the draft," NTDP U-18 coach Seth Appert said. "He plays the game so efficiently, defends so hard and can jump into the play and add offense ... he's the prototypical modern-age defenseman. I know other defensemen get more notoriety because of the points they put up, but the beauty of Jake Sanderson is the more you watch him, the more you start to appreciate what an unbelievable defender he is."
Sanderson, who was born in Whitefish, Montana, could be the first player born and trained in the state to play in the NHL.
"My skating kind of separates me from other players," Sanderson said. "I also think my compete level and willingness to go out on the ice every day, compete with my teammates and opponents, is an asset."
Nick Fohr, an associate coach on the NTDP U-18 team who works with defensemen, has been with the program for nine seasons. During that time he's worked with a number of defensemen who have gone on to play in the NHL, including Seth Jones and Zach Werenski of the Columbus Blue Jackets, Noah Hanifin of the Calgary Flames and Charlie McAvoy of the Boston Bruins, and he believes Sanderson fits among that elite group.
"Sandy is right in that mix of the top three guys I've coached here, if not the top guy," Fohr said. "That's still to be determined based on how he develops and where he goes, but this is something we've been talking about since last year. Somebody asked me last season where he'd fit, and I said he's already in my top five and that was as an under-17 player."
Sanderson had two assists and a plus-2 rating, and was named Player of the Game at the USA Hockey BioSteel All-American Game on Jan. 20. He finished first in the on-ice testing of 10 different categories a day before the game, placing first in weave agility and in reaction, and second in transition agility and transition agility with puck.
"What I've found through my years at the NTDP is that inner drive and internal clock that makes the good players, great, and Sandy has that 'it' factor," Fohr said. "You can watch 15 video clips with him, and if there's two bad ones he's walking out of there [angry] about the bad ones. He's driven to be not one of the best, but the best, and there's a big difference there."

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Sanderson seems to be quite good in transition which is what is key in today's NHL

 

[Nubmer6]

My top 31 players at the moment (not including goalies)
Lafrenierre
Stutzle
Rossi
Raymond
Sanderson
Byfield
Drysdale
Perfetti
Quinn
Holtz
Amirov
Gunler
Zary
Jarvis
Poirier
Lundell
Lapierre
Bourque
Mercer
Holloway
Nybeck
Perrault
Wiesblatt
Schneider
Reichel
Guhle
Mysak
Wallinder
Borderleau
Ponomaryov
Andrae

Love the ratings. Some gutsy calls there like Byfield being 6th and Sanderson above Drysdale. Love that yo have Quinn above Holtz and Amirov right behind them. A little surprised Mysak is as low as he is. Did you intentionally leave Askarov out or do you just not believe he's first round quality?

-edit-
Whoops. I missed the "not including goalies" part.

 

[JrFischer54]

We all know goalies are a less predictable and they often need quite a long time to develop into NHL material, but at a certain point the risk versus reward certainly flips in favor of a goalie.

2003 was the last year a goalie was picked #1 and Fleury was not a bad pick. There were three goalies (Crawford and Howard were the others) picked in the first two rounds and all became NHL starter. Only later round picks turned into NHL were Halak and Elliot.
2004 had four goalies picked in the first round: Dubnyk and Schneider turned into starters, Montoya and Schwarz busted. Rinne was a brilliant pick in the 8th round. Other notables Greiss (3rd) and Khudobin (7th).
2005 the two first round picks turned into star goaltenders (Price and Rask). The other notables, mostly Quick (3rd) and Bishop (3rd) were all picked early.
2006 saw 9 goalies picked in the first 3 rounds. None of them was truly great, still Bernier, Varlamov, Neuvirth and Mason easily beat out the later round picks.
2007 had no goalie Darling.
2008 both first round picks turned into nothing. Half of the second round picks also flopped, while both Markstrom and Allen had a remarkable NHL careers. Holty is the cream of this draft as fourth round pick.
2009 goalies started to get less valued in drafts. No first round picks, only two in the second. Koskinen remained in Europe for very long. Lehner was a good choice. Kuemper in the sixth round outperformed expectation.
2010 saw some early picks. Anderson (7th) is the only name shining, but he wasn't signed by Carolina and went in the redraft 2012 to Anaheim.
2011 has no 1st round picks, but three each in the next two rounds. Gibson was the second picked, Binnington the sixth. All other goalies haven't done much.
2012 Vasilevskiy and Subban made the first round. In a redraft Vasilevskiy should go #1. It was a good year for goalies anyway as Anderson (3rd), Murray (3rd) and Hellebuyck (5th) all turned into NHL starters.
Goalies really take a long time to groom. For 2013 the grade is still incomplete. Jarry (2nd) and Saros (4th) are still backups. Peterson (5th) is another one with a chance to become a starter.

New Jersey's starters Brodeur (1st), Schneider (1st) and Blackwood (2nd) were all picked early. To say good goalies are equally likely to be found in the late rounds as in the early rounds is simply not true.

Askarov was billed as the best goalie prospect since Price in 2005. While you might not agree with this assessment, he would not be a bad pick with Arizona pick and should definitely be considered with the Vancouver pick. There is nothing behind Blackwood in the pipeline, which screams NHL material.

the devils hitched their wagon to Blackwood. There isn’t suppose to be anything behind Blackwood that is nhl ready since he is suppose to be the goalie for the next 10+ years. Drafting this Russian kid is just worthless. If anything trade the pick for someone who really wants him and move back in the draft. To those thinking having two great goalies is a good thing. It isn’t and your kidding yourself if you think the trade value for one of them (if they both pan out) will be spectacular it won’t.

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

Give me Sanderson at our pick unless it’s top 3. I think he’s going to be a big minute D man who can excel in any role and we could really build the D core around him and Ty Smith. Scott Wheeler has Mo Seider 35th overall because he isn’t a small electric D man and he is under-ranking Sanderson for the same reason. Kid can skate like the wind, has an extremely high IQ, great defensive skills and the talent to be a great offensive threat as well.

 

[nugg]

the devils hitched their wagon to Blackwood. There isn’t suppose to be anything behind Blackwood that is nhl ready since he is suppose to be the goalie for the next 10+ years. Drafting this Russian kid is just worthless. If anything trade the pick for someone who really wants him and move back in the draft. To those thinking having two great goalies is a good thing. It isn’t and your kidding yourself if you think the trade value for one of them (if they both pan out) will be spectacular it won’t.

I'd love to gain a second or third rounder by moving down, but only depending on still being able to get "our guy". I'd really like for us to be able to snag Ryder Rolston, even though his numbers aren't that great. I like the idea of getting sons of former Devils. I hated not having a second in 2018 to take Tyler Madden. Call it nostalgia perhaps.

 

[nugg]

It's interesting about Sanderson. His father being Geoff, a pretty good offensive forward. He may have more offensive ability than has yet been shown. Steven Todd Ives likes him, and that should count for something

 

[AfroThunder396]

Geoff Sanderson was quick as f***, I remember him having a breakaway basically every game

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

I don't have any interest in moving down for more picks

We have enough prospect depth. We need top end talent.

In my ideal world, we take BPA at NJ and ARZ pick and then trade Vancouver's pick in a package for a young-ish DMan

 

[Mike27Devils]

Love the ratings. Some gutsy calls there like Byfield being 6th and Sanderson above Drysdale. Love that yo have Quinn above Holtz and Amirov right behind them. A little surprised Mysak is as low as he is. Did you intentionally leave Askarov out or do you just not believe he's first round quality?

-edit-
Whoops. I missed the "not including goalies" part.

Everyone is enamored with Byfields size and potential based on his age (being one of the youngest in the draft) and his skill but I feel like he's a toolsy upside pick at the moment. I think him having a great playoffs would have put him back into the top 3 for me. He didn't have a great second half of the season and didn't do much in the WJC. His minutes got worse and worse as the tournament (WJC) went on and I would have liked to see him play with the confidence of some of his other draft peers did in that tournament like Stutzle for example. WJC performances shouldn't hold to much weight for draft eligible players though so I try not to put too much weight into that and he was playing on a stacked team, but even Drysdale made a great impact in the gold medal game (and obviously Lafrenierre was the best in the tournament but also played a limited role the year before).
The guys that I have rated above him I think will have an easier time transitioning to the pros and have maybe not as high of an upside, but a way better chance of reaching their potential IMO. For example Rossi, I think, has a pretty good chance to be a point per game #1 two way center in his prime, where Byfields potential is somewhere in line with Malkin, but I don't think he has a great chance of reaching that potential and will more likely end up a good 2C.
Sanderson has been on the rise and I'm starting to hear from scouts that his skating is even better than Drysdales which is absolutely insane. I think Drysdale has the higher floor but Sanderson the higher ceiling but not by much.
I love Quinn. I think Holtz shot may be better, but Quinns shot selection, two-way play and hockey IQ are better. Quinns trajectory seems to be going straight up as he's made a ton of progress from last year to this year and from the beginning of the season to the end of the season this year. NHL scouts have even stated he outplayed Rossi many games towards the end of the year (and they don't play on the same line as many assume).
I like Mysak a lot. I just don't seem him as a player that makes his line mates better like some of the other players I have above him and I don't see any elite attributes that he possesses. I also don't think his game is made for center in the NHL. He reminds me of a player like Evander Kane, where he plays more of a north south game and relies on his skill and physical attributes to be successful which isn't a bad thing, but would like to see him be more dynamic. I think he's a pretty safe bet to be a middle 6 forward at the pro level.

 

[Nubmer6]

Everyone is enamored with Byfields size and potential based on his age (being one of the youngest in the draft) and his skill but I feel like he's a toolsy upside pick at the moment. I think him having a great playoffs would have put him back into the top 3 for me. He didn't have a great second half of the season and didn't do much in the WJC. His minutes got worse and worse as the tournament (WJC) went on and I would have liked to see him play with the confidence of some of his other draft peers did in that tournament like Stutzle for example. WJC performances shouldn't hold to much weight for draft eligible players though so I try not to put too much weight into that and he was playing on a stacked team, but even Drysdale made a great impact in the gold medal game (and obviously Lafrenierre was the best in the tournament but also played a limited role the year before).
The guys that I have rated above him I think will have an easier time transitioning to the pros and have maybe not as high of an upside, but a way better chance of reaching their potential IMO. For example Rossi, I think, has a pretty good chance to be a point per game #1 two way center in his prime, where Byfields potential is somewhere in line with Malkin, but I don't think he has a great chance of reaching that potential and will more likely end up a good 2C.
Sanderson has been on the rise and I'm starting to hear from scouts that his skating is even better than Drysdales which is absolutely insane. I think Drysdale has the higher floor but Sanderson the higher ceiling but not by much.
I love Quinn. I think Holtz shot may be better, but Quinns shot selection, two-way play and hockey IQ are better. Quinns trajectory seems to be going straight up as he's made a ton of progress from last year to this year and from the beginning of the season to the end of the season this year. NHL scouts have even stated he outplayed Rossi many games towards the end of the year (and they don't play on the same line as many assume).
I like Mysak a lot. I just don't seem him as a player that makes his line mates better like some of the other players I have above him and I don't see any elite attributes that he possesses. I also don't think his game is made for center in the NHL. He reminds me of a player like Evander Kane, where he plays more of a north south game and relies on his skill and physical attributes to be successful which isn't a bad thing, but would like to see him be more dynamic. I think he's a pretty safe bet to be a middle 6 forward at the pro level.

I absolutely love Quinn and pray that we snag him with Arizona's pick, but the fact that his stats only exploded this past year can certainly make some people uneasy. I think my dream draft if we picked in our current positions would probably be Drysdale, Quinn, and Amirov, but there's so many good players that I'm pretty sure I'll be happy with whoever we pick. I like Sanderson too, but we're so stacked on LHD in the system that I kind of wish he was a RHD. Then again, Ty Smith may end up playing on the right side so maybe our RHD depth in the minors isn't as bad as I fear.