NHL Entry Draft 2020 NHL Draft Discussion - PART XII [We got 3-5]

[FormentonTheFuture]

Rangers fan coming in peace.

Draft Stützle and Rossi.

Profit.

Would be so disappointed in this draft. I would only accept Rossi if we get byfield

 

[edguy]

I'm really warming up to the idea of us getting Stutzle.

We really haven't had a player like him before.

 

[Hale The Villain]

I'm really warming up to the idea of us getting Stutzle.

We really haven't had a player like him before.

He's one of the most dynamic players to come around in years.

His speed and ability to handle the puck at high speed is perhaps the best since McDavid. Unreal hands and wheels.

Looks like a potential Barzal-type player to me. Don't think his upside is all that much lower than that of Lafreniere (if it is at all).

 

[TheDebater]

Ernst and Young oversees the lottery. They’re not gonna risk their entire reputation so the rangers can draft Lafreniere, or the devils Hughes or any other team any other star.

And that is based on what? Money can be very influential and I would not be the least bit surprised if a big company like that took a bribe to fix the lottery. I am not saying they did, but basing the defense on "reputation" is merely one opinion.

It would be so difficult to prove any wrong doing that there is so little risk to them even if they ever got called out for being part of the rigging. Think about it, every year there are accusations that the lottery is rigged and they get brushed off as "conspiracy" so what exactly would it take to prove any actual rigging, aside from Ernst and Young or someone in the NHL coming out publicly themselves and stating it?

 

[edguy]

He's one of the most dynamic players to come around in years.

His speed and ability to handle the puck at high speed is perhaps the best since McDavid. Unreal hands and wheels.

Looks like a potential Barzal-type player to me. Don't think his upside is all that much lower than that of Lafreniere (if it is at all).

Do you see him as NHL ready?

 

[Hale The Villain]

Do you see him as NHL ready?

He could probably play, but I would give him another year in the German league.

Wouldn't want to rush him thinking he's ready and have him stagnate. Easiest way to ruin a prospect.

 

[BondraTime]

And that is based on what? Money can be very influential and I would not be the least bit surprised if a big company like that took a bribe to fix the lottery. I am not saying they did, but basing the defense on "reputation" is merely one opinion.

It would be so difficult to prove any wrong doing that there is so little risk to them even if they ever got called out for being part of the rigging. Think about it, every year there are accusations that the lottery is rigged and they get brushed off as "conspiracy" so what exactly would it take to prove any actual rigging, aside from Ernst and Young or someone in the NHL coming out publicly themselves and stating it?

A bribe to fix the lottery would need to be astronomical to outweigh the losses they would receive if they were found to be fixing it. They aren’t taking bribes, or rigging the lottery.

Yes, every year people say it’s rigged, because no matter who wins, fans are going to be whiny and peddle those cheap wares.

Sens win - “Rigged to help the struggling Sens”
LA win - “Rigged to get him into a big market”
Montreal win - “Rigged to get him to the French market”
New York win - “Rigged to get him to a big market”
Etc. Etc.

People are always going to say it’s rigged, because its a cheap and easy way to complain about something not going your way.

 

[TheDebater]

A bribe to fix the lottery would need to be astronomical to outweigh the losses they would receive if they were found to be fixing it. They aren’t taking bribes, or rigging the lottery.

Yes, every year people say it’s rigged, because no matter who wins, fans are going to be whiny and peddle those cheap wares.

Sens win - “Rigged to help the struggling Sens”
LA win - “Rigged to get him into a big market”
Montreal win - “Rigged to get him to the French market”
New York win - “Rigged to get him to a big market”
Etc. Etc.

People are always going to say it’s rigged, because its a cheap and easy way to complain about something not going your way.

Which is why I am looking at it from a "boy who cried wolf" scenario. Since we hear it so much, most people simply brush it off as fans being fans and haters being haters, which most likely is true.

I am definitely on the "not rigged" side of the fence, however I will never completely reject a theory especially if it is somewhat possible and completely unrealistic. There have been worse scandals in the world that would make this look like a joke if it ever materialized.

 

[Slippy]

I think your over estimating the delta between the projections of LAF and BY.

That difference isn’t like the perceived difference between Lindross and Forsberg In 1991. In reality it is probably closer to the actual difference between Lindros and Forsberg.

There should be zero interest on the Sens part for a “cant say no” type trade offer.

If I was a Ranger fan I’d rather have Byfield and Guhle (NYI) than LAF.

I love this comparison for this draft. You have an obvious #1 talent, but if you're drafting twice in the top five the potential "drop off" is certainly less than many years. If you're lucky enough to have first overall you get Lindros/Lafreniere, but if you have #3 and #5 you potentially walk away with Scott Neidermayer and Peter Forsberg (actually taken #6, but was available at 5). Lindros obviously ranked higher than everyone at the time of the draft, but looking back on it now...

Granted it is exceptional to have 3 HOF calibre players out of top 5 of one draft, and I am not comparing any of the current player directly to those past, just an interesting thing to look back and think of.

 

[GCK]

And that is based on what? Money can be very influential and I would not be the least bit surprised if a big company like that took a bribe to fix the lottery. I am not saying they did, but basing the defense on "reputation" is merely one opinion.

It would be so difficult to prove any wrong doing that there is so little risk to them even if they ever got called out for being part of the rigging. Think about it, every year there are accusations that the lottery is rigged and they get brushed off as "conspiracy" so what exactly would it take to prove any actual rigging, aside from Ernst and Young or someone in the NHL coming out publicly themselves and stating it?

This is ridiculous, there is no way the other owners would allow this.

 

[Cosmix]

Just heard that Dale Hawerchuk has passed on. What a great hockey player he was. Sorry to see him gone at such a young age 57.

 

[TheDebater]

I love this comparison for this draft. You have an obvious #1 talent, but if you're drafting twice in the top five the potential "drop off" is certainly less than many years. If you're lucky enough to have first overall you get Lindros/Lafreniere, but if you have #3 and #5 you potentially walk away with Scott Neidermayer and Peter Forsberg (actually taken #6, but was available at 5). Lindros obviously ranked higher than everyone at the time of the draft, but looking back on it now...

Granted it is exceptional to have 3 HOF calibre players out of top 5 of one draft, and I am not comparing any of the current player directly to those past, just an interesting thing to look back and think of.

And more recently, 2017:

#1. Nico Hischier

Or

#3. Miro Heiskanen (or take Makar who went 4th)

AND

#5. Elias Pettersson

 

[Six Assets]

And that is based on what? Money can be very influential and I would not be the least bit surprised if a big company like that took a bribe to fix the lottery. I am not saying they did, but basing the defense on "reputation" is merely one opinion.

It would be so difficult to prove any wrong doing that there is so little risk to them even if they ever got called out for being part of the rigging. Think about it, every year there are accusations that the lottery is rigged and they get brushed off as "conspiracy" so what exactly would it take to prove any actual rigging, aside from Ernst and Young or someone in the NHL coming out publicly themselves and stating it?

Reminds me of this post by @Bubba Pilks

NHL Entry Draft - 2020 NHL Draft Discussion - Part VIII

Ernst & Young had $36.4 billion in revenue for 2019. Even if an owner offered up 100 million to rig the lottery for Lafreniere. That would be equivalent to someone earning $364,000 a year and doing something nefarious/illegal for $1,000 and if caught, would significantly reduce the likelyhood of ever earning $364,000 a year again.

 

[Masked]

Reminds me of this post by @Bubba Pilks

NHL Entry Draft - 2020 NHL Draft Discussion - Part VIII

Ernst & Young had $36.4 billion in revenue for 2019. Even if an owner offered up 100 million to rig the lottery for Lafreniere. That would be equivalent to someone earning $364,000 a year and doing something nefarious/illegal for $1,000 and if caught, would significantly reduce the likelyhood of ever earning $364,000 a year again.

I'm guessing you never watched McMillions.

 

[JoshTessler]

Definitely bold, they must be from Ottawa to have Rossi 3rd...

Skimmed a couple of their writeups, not super in depth but typical type you see from free options. Of note, and probably part of why they have Rossi so high, they were really complimentary of Rossi's skating including his top end speed.

Boston, Massachusetts based

 

[aragorn]

It would be bad asset management not to trade down from #1 at that point. If you were GM and had your sights set on Byfield then you move down to #2 or even #3 and grab as much picks or prospects as you can in the process.

Since Lafreniere is the consensus #1, you have to take him, or force the #2 team to give something away to grab him and not simply pick him for free at #2 just because you wanted Byfield.

The same basically applies for the Rangers, there is zero reason not to take Lafreniere at #1, otherwise they can trade down if they receive an offer they cannot refuse.

How would you know the team you just traded with would not pick Byfield before you got to pick? Trading down only works if the player you want is guaranteed to go lower & in this draft while the rankings are clear it doesn't mean that it will end up like that. although I think it will, there is no guarantee.

How stupid would someone look if they said they wanted Byfield traded down to 2nd & the team that they traded with took Byfield 1st overall & whatever you gave them to boot? That's why I doubt there will be any movement in the top 10 & Ottawa will get who LA doesn't want, the cost is too high & too much risk not to get your guy. Ottawa is sitting in a pretty good position & all they can do is hope for LA to take Stutzle if Byfield is there guy or draft Stutzle if LA takes Byfield. I hope LA takes Drysdale myself & Detroit takes Perfetti so Ottawa can come away with both Byfield & Stutzle which is another pipe dream.

 

[TheDebater]

How would you know the team you just traded with would not pick Byfield before you got to pick? Trading down only works if the player you want is guaranteed to go lower & in this draft while the rankings are clear it doesn't mean that it will end up like that. although I think it will, there is no guarantee.

How stupid would someone look if they said they wanted Byfield traded down to 2nd & the team that they traded with took Byfield 1st overall & whatever you gave them to boot? That's why I doubt there will be any movement in the top 10 & Ottawa will get who LA doesn't want, the cost is too high & too much risk not to get your guy. Ottawa is sitting in a pretty good position & all they can do is hope for LA to take Stutzle if Byfield is there guy or draft Stutzle if LA takes Byfield. I hope LA takes Drysdale myself & Detroit takes Perfetti so Ottawa can come away with both Byfield & Stutzle which is another pipe dream.

I cannot necessarily prove this right now but teams generally make trades with each other on draft day based on a certain level of trust. According to you, L.A would be dumb enough to trade a bunch of assets to move up to #1 just to end up drafting the player who was most likely to go at #2.

I am positive that if New York really wanted Byfield they would approach L.A and tell them that Lafreniere could be had for a small price in addition to the #2 overall. If L.A says "no we want Byfield at #2" and the Rangers are bold enough to take Byfield at #1, the Kings would probably be pretty thrilled to land Lafreniere at #2 for free.

I think this whole debate is based on your hypothetical that both the Rangers and Kings think that Byfield is the #1 player in this draft and that both teams would rather draft him over Lafreniere, which to me is very very unlikely at this point.

If the Rangers want Byfield, they are not wasting the #1 pick on him, they will move down, guaranteed.

.

How stupid would someone look if they said they wanted Byfield traded down to 2nd & the team that they traded with took Byfield 1st overall & whatever you gave them to boot? .

As to your point above, I think you are getting confused as the team moving down is not the team giving up the assets but rather the team moving up. It would be stupid on the Kings for example to give up assets eith the promise of moving up to draft Lafreniere only to draft the player (Byfield) that they could have got for free at #2.

 

[JD1]

I cannot necessarily prove this right now but teams generally make trades with each other on draft day based on a certain level of trust. According to you, L.A would be dumb enough to trade a bunch of assets to move up to #1 just to end up drafting the player who was most likely to go at #2.

I am positive that if New York really wanted Byfield they would approach L.A and tell them that Lafreniere could be had for a small price in addition to the #2 overall. If L.A says "no we want Byfield at #2" and the Rangers are bold enough to take Byfield at #1, the Kings would probably be pretty thrilled to land Lafreniere at #2 for free.

I think this whole debate is based on your hypothetical that both the Rangers and Kings think that Byfield is the #1 player in this draft and that both teams would rather draft him over Lafreniere, which to me is very very unlikely at this point.

If the Rangers want Byfield, they are not wasting the #1 pick on him, they will move down, guaranteed.



As to your point above, I think you are getting confused as the team moving down is not the team giving up the assets but rather the team moving up. It would be stupid on the Kings for example to give up assets eith the promise of moving up to draft Lafreniere only to draft the player (Byfield) that they could have got for free at #2.

Right. But this is a game of chicken. I think it becomes clear as part if discussion tgat their interest lies in Byfield should that be the case

 

[aragorn]

I cannot necessarily prove this right now but teams generally make trades with each other on draft day based on a certain level of trust. According to you, L.A would be dumb enough to trade a bunch of assets to move up to #1 just to end up drafting the player who was most likely to go at #2.

I am positive that if New York really wanted Byfield they would approach L.A and tell them that Lafreniere could be had for a small price in addition to the #2 overall. If L.A says "no we want Byfield at #2" and the Rangers are bold enough to take Byfield at #1, the Kings would probably be pretty thrilled to land Lafreniere at #2 for free.

I think this whole debate is based on your hypothetical that both the Rangers and Kings think that Byfield is the #1 player in this draft and that both teams would rather draft him over Lafreniere, which to me is very very unlikely at this point.

If the Rangers want Byfield, they are not wasting the #1 pick on him, they will move down, guaranteed.

Of course, I was just stating an obvious possibility, but yea you hope the guy keeps his word if you make a deal with him. That kind of thing would go around like wild fire & nobody would ever make a deal with you again.

No, my whole thing is that I would draft Byfield 1st OA, that is completely different than what I think these teams will do. I think Byfield could be the best player from this draft, but he could also end up a bust, I doubt it, but who knows? As I have said many times I doubt there will be any deals made in the top 10, but from that point on or around that pick there could be much more movement, we'll see.

I would guess that the top three drafting teams are all very happy where they are & should all come away with one great player in the top 3 & Ottawa is lucky enough to have another pick at #5 that should also help with the rebuild. The rest of it IMO is just media hype for the draft as we see every yr especially from TSN who want & need people to spend the day watching their channel. Bob works for them afterall.

 

[TheDebater]

Of course, I was just stating an obvious possibility, but yea you hope the guy keeps his word if you make a deal with him. That kind of thing would go around like wild fire & nobody would ever make a deal with you again.

No, my whole thing is that I would draft Byfield 1st OA, that is completely different than what I think these teams will do. I think Byfield could be the best player from this draft, but he could also end up a bust, I doubt it, but who knows? As I have said many times I doubt there will be any deals made in the top 10, but from that point on or around that pick there could be much more movement, we'll see.

I would guess that the top three drafting teams are all very happy where they are & should all come away with one great player in the top 3 & Ottawa is lucky enough to have another pick at #5 that should also help with the rebuild. The rest of it IMO is just media hype for the draft as we see every yr especially from TSN who want & need people to spend the day watching their channel. Bob works for them afterall.

I think the more likely scenario that actually affects us Senators fans, is whether or not Dorion has a real preference between Stutzle and Byfield. I think it is by far a more difficult decision to go from #3 to #2 without knowing exactly who L.A wants, because the last thing you want is to pay a price for a player you were probably going to get at #3 anyway.

Take for instance the Senators really prefer Stutzle and word around the rumourmill is that the Kings prefer him too. Does Ottawa believe it and make a pitch to move up or do they "settle" for Byfield and keep their assets? Same scenario but vice versa if the preference is Byfield and they suspect L.A wants him badly too.

What would you do and what would be considered a reasonable price to pay to move from 3 to 2?

 

[aragorn]

I think the more likely scenario that actually affects us Senators fans, is whether or not Dorion has a real preference between Stutzle and Byfield. I think it is by far a more difficult decision to go from #3 to #2 without knowing exactly who L.A wants, because the last thing you want is to pay a price for a player you were probably going to get at #3 anyway.

Take for instance the Senators really prefer Stutzle and word around the rumourmill is that the Kings prefer him too. Does Ottawa believe it and make a pitch to move up or do they "settle" for Byfield and keep their assets? Same scenario but vice versa if the preference is Byfield and they suspect L.A wants him badly too.

What would you do and what would be considered a reasonable price to pay to move from 3 to 2?

I would want Byfield & I would add Brannstrom or White plus. But IMO the Sens won't waste any assets to move up one spot when the player they will be getting could be as good as the players ahead of him. The risk IMO & cost could be too much, especially if it fails, it would surely cost PD his job. From PD's perspective it's much better to stand pat & justify the pick(s) based on where you selected them than make a trade that blows up in your face.

Nobody knows who will end up as the best player from this draft, it might not even be any of the top three which would be a shock. And the same scenario could be played out for the #5 pick, they will likely take whoever is on their list & try to justify it even if it is off the board a little. But anyone in that 4th to 8th spot could turn into the best player in the draft or more likely the better player than the one selected at 5th OA. My guess is that all of the players in the top 10 will likely be good NHL players exactly which ones end up being better than the others around them is all that remains to be seen.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[benjiv1]

I'm really warming up to the idea of us getting Stutzle.

We really haven't had a player like him before.

Healthy Martin Havlat in his prime.

PPG 30+ goal scorer with unreal wheels.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Healthy Martin Havlat in his prime.

PPG 30+ goal scorer with unreal wheels.

hell of a player to get at 26

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

Healthy Martin Havlat in his prime.

PPG 30+ goal scorer with unreal wheels.

This is why I want Byfield...