NHL Entry Draft 2020 NHL Draft Discussion - PART 2

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stempniaksen

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Oct 12, 2008
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Limited viewings, but I think Raymond has fallen out my top-six. Less of an indictment on him and speaks more to the quality of the top end of this draft. Will be tough to be disappointed with a couple of top-eight picks (even if we do miss out on Lafreniere and Byfield).
 
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Burrowsaurus

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Mar 20, 2013
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What's wrong with bumping up players having an excellent WJC? Its a great tournament to see players play against their peers. Sure your whole opinion shouldn't be based on that but I think it definitely holds a lot of value
having any player rocket up standings because of at most 7 games sets of warning signs for me
 
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HSF

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having any player rocket up standings because of at most 7 games sets of warning signs for me
Stutzle didn't 'rocket up' he was considered a top 6 pick before the tournament. Its not like he came from nowhere
 

Burrowsaurus

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Stutzle didn't 'rocket up' he was considered a top 6 pick before the tournament. Its not like he came from nowhere
that way yes. but to think he was though of in that 3rd or 4th tier and now some think hes on par with Byfield who was thought of in a tier of his own behind lafraneiere. .... seems extreme. I mean if byfield blows up the WJC is stutzle still on par with him?

I mean look at lundell.. last year in the WJC people were hyped about him... he misses this years WJC and now people have him like 11th lol... even though hes doing reaaaaallly well against men at the moment.
 

BondraTime

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that way yes. but to think he was though of in that 3rd or 4th tier and now some think hes on par with Byfield who was thought of in a tier of his own behind lafraneiere. .... seems extreme. I mean if byfield blows up the WJC is stutzle still on par with him?

I mean look at lundell.. last year in the WJC people were hyped about him... he misses this years WJC and now people have him like 11th lol... even though hes doing reaaaaallly well against men at the moment.
He was ranked 3rd by multiple sources prior to the World Juniors

This isn't rocketing up whatsoever, he's been climbing since the season started, and had a top 5 type season last year as well.

He was just ignored because he was playing in Germany, same as Sieder at the start of last season.

Lundell has been outside the top 5 and dropping for pretty much the whole season, not sure his drop has much to do with the Wrold Juniors.
 

Burrowsaurus

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Mar 20, 2013
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Limited viewings, but I think Raymond has fallen out my top-six. Less of an indictment on him and speaks more to the quality of the top end of this draft. Will be tough to be disappointed with a couple of top-eight picks (even if we do miss out on Lafreniere and Byfield).
will be stoked with ANY two of Laf byfield Raymond holz stutzule lundell drysdale rossi perfetti Gunler

I will say Holz is not my preferred choice. hes a shooter (granted I know nothing but seems that way) I think we really need forwards who can take over a shift, who can exert a bit more influence on a shift. and some may say an elite shooter can do just that and I would understand their point.
 

Burrowsaurus

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He was ranked 3rd by multiple sources prior to the World Juniors

This isn't rocketing up whatsoever, he's been climbing since the season started, and had a top 5 type season last year as well.

He was just ignored because he was playing in Germany, same as Sieder at the start of last season.

Lundell has been outside the top 5 and dropping for pretty much the whole season, not sure his drop has much to do with the Wrold Juniors.
do you think he keeps dropping if he shows up to the WJC and has a a better tourney than Stutzle or the Swedes
 

BondraTime

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do you think he keeps dropping if he shows up to the WJC and has a a better tourney than Stutzle or the Swedes
I think he ends up behind Stutzle for sure yes, and likely Raymond as well. In the tier with Drysdale, Perfetti, Rossi, Holtz. Somewhere around 6-10, which is where he's ranked in every ranking outside of one.

He is ranked outside the top 10 in one ranking, and that ranking also has Holtz and Rossi outside of the top 10...
 
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ijif

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Dec 20, 2018
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Can confirm. I thought you were insane when you said he's probably better than Raymond.

Stützle actually fell for me after World Juniors. I had it Lafreniere, Byfield, Holtz, Stützle, Raymond.

I hadn't seen Stützle until he turned pro, but then was floored by how poised and crafty he looked at the pro level, picking apart seasoned veterans, in addition to the obvious speed and skill. But I had slight concerns about his finishing ability and perimeter-style game that I attributed to him playing pro. So when he still had the same issues at World Juniors, while Raymond picked up where he left off at the U18s, but another level up, they swapped spots for me.

But yeah, for people who haven't seen Stützle until World Juniors, of course he moved up some lists.

I actually did not think he had a great WJC. He was good, but his shot selection did not mirror his shot selection in the DEL. He also was fumbling the puck quite a bit. I attribute that to just excitement and nervousness. I'm pretty sure this was his first international tournament where he was able to play against the best players in his age group, and he probably knew that Germany needed him to produce if they were going to make any noise.

My biggest complaint about Stutzle is his decision making. He tries too often to make the play that will for sure lead to a goal if it works, but the probability is super low that it will work. That is what separates Lafreniere from him, for me. You can see Laf angle his blade and his body, scanning where to go. Stutzle is fast-paced. He gets it, makes a move, and the puck is being fired to where he thought it should go before he made the move. He needs to recalibrate after the move, sometimes, to improve his overall effectiveness. He also needs to get stronger on his skates.

I'm not sure what you mean by perimeter player. He constantly brings the puck from the boards into the middle of the ice. I don't think he is afraid to take it to the middle or go the middle, but he isn't going to post up in the middle of the ice, but, again, I'm not exactly sure what you mean.

The scoring thing is interesting. You look at his shot, and while I have never watched him live, it looks to have a fairly quick release, and it seems like it has some heat on it, so I would guess his goal-scoring problems boils down to not having the most accurate shot, or he is just getting very unlucky right now. To see how SH% can influence a player, look at Lafreniere. He is on pace for 43 goals, which is one more than his rookie year, and six more than last year, but this year he is averaging 5.2 shots a game. In his other two years, he averaged about 3.4. Somehow, his goal scoring has stayed the same, yet he is averaging almost 2 more shots per game. Even if those extra shots were all bad shots, we should still see a spike goal scoring, but we don't, and we don't see that increase because his SH% is at a low. Before this season, Laf was a 17% shooter. This year, he is at 13.6%. Regressing his SH%, he would be at 30 goals and 79 points. What I am saying is Stutzle could just be in a dry spell caused by random variation in SH%. I am not saying that is what is happening (like I do believe for Laf), but it is a possibility to explain Stutzle's poor goal scoring and make no mistake, it is poor. Corsica's model does not like him because of his weak goal scoring. The model had him as one of (if not the) poorest goal scoring top-rated forwards since 2013. His adjusted goal rate is about the same as a top-ranked defenceman; however, only one player since 2013 has a better-adjusted assist rate than Stutzle, and if you remove late birthdays, he is basically tied with one player. That one player currently leads the NHL points. For reference, McDavid had an adjusted assist rate of 0.24, and Stutzle was bouncing between 0.25-o.27 (Corsica's model is no longer live, but I was looking at it every morning before it went down, and I have all data from previous years saved).

I like Raymond a lot. The kid is super smart. Higher hockey IQ than Stutzle. Raymond's positioning is also better (probably due to higher IQ); they both forecheck hard and backcheck hard, but Raymond is much more effective at closing lanes, forcing turnovers, etc. Although he has low point totals, I also get a dangerous vibe from Raymond. You just get the feeling something can happen when he has the puck. His stats are similar to Nylander, but his IQ and compete are higher. I have no problems with someone preferring Raymond over Stutzle.

Holtz, though, I don't know. I don't see it. I don't think he is BPA at #3, not my type of player, nor the type of player this team needs. We need to be stronger in transition. We need players to get the puck out of our zone and into the opposition's zone, so our big bodies like Tkachuk, Brown (hopefully he pans out), and even Paul can do work down low, and so Chabot doesn't have to lug the puck every second shift (so inefficient, and maybe he will have energy to actually defend, improving his overall impact). Holtz does not help us with that, at least not to the extent of other players, but I am a little worried I caught him in some not so great games. Analytically, he is probably the second or third best player in this draft. His adjusted goal-scoring rate is top 3 or 4 since 2013. The kid can score, no doubt. I am going to try and watch him more. He is having a great year.
 

Daffy

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Jun 10, 2010
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I think he ends up behind Stutzle for sure yes, and likely Raymond as well. In the tier with Drysdale, Rossi, Holtz. Somewhere around 6-9, which is where he's ranked in every ranking outside of one.

He is ranked outside the top 10 in one ranking, and that ranking also has Holtz and Rossi outside of the top 10...

What's your top 10 list Bondra?
 
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JungleBeat

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Haha I dunno who the hell told that guy Raymond was NHL-ready. He needs to find better sources. The great appeal about Raymond is how NHL-translatable his game is: drives the middle of the ice, battles in front of the net, does everything full speed, aggressive forechecker and backchecker. The only weakness right now is, well, physical weakness. He's just not strong enough to play his game to its full potential at the pro level. He's likely a couple years from the NHL, but he's gonna be a star.
Didn’t say he was NHL ready.
 

OUTHOUSE

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I can’t wait until the lottery. Then we can finally get a view of what this team will likely do come draft day. Right now it’s so scattered.
 

Daffy

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Jun 10, 2010
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I can’t wait until the lottery. Then we can finally get a view of what this team will likely do come draft day. Right now it’s so scattered.

Unfortunately even with a top 5 pick, Dorion will still probably go off the board lol
 

Burrowsaurus

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Mar 20, 2013
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If we dont get a top 2 pick, I would be absolutely ecstatic if we could land Stutzle and Drysdale for example.
me too.. I know your post wasn't directed at me but I would like to clarify there basically isn't anyone in the top 10 who I would be disappointed with.
 

MatchesMalone

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Aug 29, 2010
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I actually did not think he had a great WJC. He was good, but his shot selection did not mirror his shot selection in the DEL. He also was fumbling the puck quite a bit. I attribute that to just excitement and nervousness. I'm pretty sure this was his first international tournament where he was able to play against the best players in his age group, and he probably knew that Germany needed him to produce if they were going to make any noise.

My biggest complaint about Stutzle is his decision making. He tries too often to make the play that will for sure lead to a goal if it works, but the probability is super low that it will work. That is what separates Lafreniere from him, for me. You can see Laf angle his blade and his body, scanning where to go. Stutzle is fast-paced. He gets it, makes a move, and the puck is being fired to where he thought it should go before he made the move. He needs to recalibrate after the move, sometimes, to improve his overall effectiveness. He also needs to get stronger on his skates.

I'm not sure what you mean by perimeter player. He constantly brings the puck from the boards into the middle of the ice. I don't think he is afraid to take it to the middle or go the middle, but he isn't going to post up in the middle of the ice, but, again, I'm not exactly sure what you mean.

The scoring thing is interesting. You look at his shot, and while I have never watched him live, it looks to have a fairly quick release, and it seems like it has some heat on it, so I would guess his goal-scoring problems boils down to not having the most accurate shot, or he is just getting very unlucky right now. To see how SH% can influence a player, look at Lafreniere. He is on pace for 43 goals, which is one more than his rookie year, and six more than last year, but this year he is averaging 5.2 shots a game. In his other two years, he averaged about 3.4. Somehow, his goal scoring has stayed the same, yet he is averaging almost 2 more shots per game. Even if those extra shots were all bad shots, we should still see a spike goal scoring, but we don't, and we don't see that increase because his SH% is at a low. Before this season, Laf was a 17% shooter. This year, he is at 13.6%. Regressing his SH%, he would be at 30 goals and 79 points. What I am saying is Stutzle could just be in a dry spell caused by random variation in SH%. I am not saying that is what is happening (like I do believe for Laf), but it is a possibility to explain Stutzle's poor goal scoring and make no mistake, it is poor. Corsica's model does not like him because of his weak goal scoring. The model had him as one of (if not the) poorest goal scoring top-rated forwards since 2013. His adjusted goal rate is about the same as a top-ranked defenceman; however, only one player since 2013 has a better-adjusted assist rate than Stutzle, and if you remove late birthdays, he is basically tied with one player. That one player currently leads the NHL points. For reference, McDavid had an adjusted assist rate of 0.24, and Stutzle was bouncing between 0.25-o.27 (Corsica's model is no longer live, but I was looking at it every morning before it went down, and I have all data from previous years saved).

I like Raymond a lot. The kid is super smart. Higher hockey IQ than Stutzle. Raymond's positioning is also better (probably due to higher IQ); they both forecheck hard and backcheck hard, but Raymond is much more effective at closing lanes, forcing turnovers, etc. Although he has low point totals, I also get a dangerous vibe from Raymond. You just get the feeling something can happen when he has the puck. His stats are similar to Nylander, but his IQ and compete are higher. I have no problems with someone preferring Raymond over Stutzle.

Holtz, though, I don't know. I don't see it. I don't think he is BPA at #3, not my type of player, nor the type of player this team needs. We need to be stronger in transition. We need players to get the puck out of our zone and into the opposition's zone, so our big bodies like Tkachuk, Brown (hopefully he pans out), and even Paul can do work down low, and so Chabot doesn't have to lug the puck every second shift (so inefficient, and maybe he will have energy to actually defend, improving his overall impact). Holtz does not help us with that, at least not to the extent of other players, but I am a little worried I caught him in some not so great games. Analytically, he is probably the second or third best player in this draft. His adjusted goal-scoring rate is top 3 or 4 since 2013. The kid can score, no doubt. I am going to try and watch him more. He is having a great year.

Hmmm. Ok regarding Stützle first, by perimeter player, I was thinking mainly off the rush - not to say he doesn't attack up the middle, but he seems a lot more likely to drive wide, and he's not as shifty a skater as, say Raymond or Rossi, so he has to rely more on his stickhandling, which is exceptional don't get me wrong, but there are a bunch of better forwards than him in this draft at attacking one on one on the rush. But that's fine, because he's so good at driving wide and finding teammates streaking, or at curling and using his stickhandling to make time for his teammates to enter the zone and set up.

When you say he constantly brings the puck from the boards to the middle, I'm thinking mostly of seeing him walking out from the sideboards, and yeah that is definitely one of his strengths, but coming out of the corners he tends to stick along the boards until he gets up to around the half wall, I can't recall seeing him driving out of the corner much. And in both scenarios, he just doesn't seem to go the net often enough or hard enough. In my opinion, that has something to do with the lack of goal scoring.

My favorite thing about Stützle, that sets him apart from most other top prospects, is how crafty he is. I've been using the word "crafty", but tricky or sly or whatever you want to call it. He loves to flip pucks over defenders' sticks, put it in their feet, put it off the boards or back of the net, that sort of thing. Actually Dawson Mercer is another one like that, but he's doing it against juniors, Stützle is constantly making pros look foolish.

I don't blame you for the hesitation around Holtz. He's a bit of a wildcard. I wouldn't be surprised to see him fall as far as, but when players are close I tend to lean toward the higher risk, higher upside, and Holtz has the tools to be an elite goal-scorer, as well as an effective playmaker.

My schtick lately is instead of just thinking in terms of high or low hockey IQ, I'm trying to pinpoint specific aspects of hockey IQ and think about how they will translate. In many ways I feel that Holtz has some of the higher IQ in the draft class, but then he also makes weird decisions a little too frequently.

But here's my thought process: those weird decisions generally fall into two broad categories - all-round defensive play, and trying to do too much with the puck/holding on too long looking for a perfect play. I suspect that with kids like Stranges and especially Holtz, who were prodigies from such a young age, for a long time they were able to get by purely on skill and never had to properly learn to how to play defense or how to use their teammates. But considering how high the hockey IQ is in certain areas, the potential should still be there to develop those weak areas.
 
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RAFI BOMB

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May 11, 2016
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1. Laf
2. Byfield
3. Stutzle
4. Raymond
5. Perfetti
6. Holtz
7. Rossi
8. Lundell
9. Drysdale
10. Amirov

A have a few questions based on your list. How do you compare Raymond to Holtz and why do you prefer Raymond? How do you compare Perfetti to Rossi and why do you prefer Perfetti? What are your general thoughts on both Lundell and Amirov and why do you think they both deserve to be inside your top ten? Are there any other prospects that you are keeping an eye on that could push their way into your top ten? Thanks
 
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