Prospect Info: 2020 Ives Preliminary Draft Rankings -- Top 75

[StevenToddIves]

I appreciate the detailed response a lot, and personally, I agree with your assessment in a couple of ways on Gunler, mainly in the passing/IQ department. Gunler is a great player, but he very often forces bad passes and just plain throws the puck away far too much. He really needs to work on this aspect of his game if he wants to not be a turnover machine in the NHL.

There's a couple of areas I want to comment on. I disagree with the question concerning his 200 foot game. Every time I have seen him play, I can't seem to understand why people call this into question. He is fantastic at putting pressure on the puck (2 of his 4 goals came off of turnovers forced by doing this) and on the forecheck and the backcheck, and his overall defensive game to me looked quite poised for a teenager in a men's league. I also really like his size at 6'2". He is definitely physically underdeveloped but putting on muscle and increasing overall strength is one of the areas where I think all players can and will improve, so I don't usually hold this against draft eligible players. I think when he puts on some more muscle, he will look even better on the defensive end, as he will probably fill in the one missing gap in his current defensive play: the ability to play with physicality.

I in no way believe Kaliyev is a good comparison for Gunler. Kaliyev was ridiculously lazy and awful in the defensive zone, which I think is the exact opposite of Gunler. This brings up the topic of consistency as well, which I have heard people talking about. It's very hard for a player like Gunler to play a consistent, 100% game all of the time when you move from playing 20 minutes a game in the lower league to playing less than 10 minutes a game in the SHL. Not only is it a much tougher league, but he never gets the chance to actually fully adjust to the men's game and actually play consistent minutes like he is used to. I mean, he was essentially used as a 4th liner the entire year, there's not much he can do about that.

The character issues are very interesting to me. I've heard a lot of conflicting things about the issues, so I am not going to act like I am an expert on the topic. It seems to me like a lot of people have heard the situation has been blown a little out of proportion and they are not something to worry about. Obviously something to always be wary of and I am sure some NHL scouts know the ins of the problem, but for me, I am going to say its not too big of a deal. Its really quite unfortunate that this has lead to him not being able to prove himself at international tournaments, but I think had he gone, he would have performed quite well (obviously pure speculation on that).

I absolutely love Gunler's offensive game. He is a great skater, but can definitely improve a little bit still, but not really anything to worry about for me. His shot is absolutely beautiful for me. I love his quick, hard release and his one timer abilities that will make him wherever he shoots from in the offensive zone. He also just has this great ability to always be in high danger scoring areas to get his shot off, something that I believe will really help his game translate to the next level. I mentioned his passing ability as a concern earlier in relation to his IQ, but that's not to say he's a bad passer. He's actually still quite good. He does a good job of staying knowledgeable of his teammates at all times and making good overall plays. I will say, though, that he plays far too much like a pass first player and should play more like a shoot first player, given that his shot is the part of his game that makes him so effective. Once he starts doing that, I feel as though he will then break out as a player.

As for his potential, I think he is not necessarily boom/bust, as I think he at the very least should turn into a serviceable 3rd liner so long as he improves his physicality. But when I watch this kid play, man, his potential just looks through the roof for me. I think he will definitely be one of those players who will take a lot of time to develop, I am going to say 2 more years in the SHL, but I think if it all pans out, it will definitely be worth it. I have a little trouble putting my finger on an NHL comparison, maybe like Phil Kessel who plays a higher pressure game. I think when its all said and done, he should be a 35-30 kinda guy who can play a solid 200 foot game and be great on special teams, but I think he has a chance at hitting his max NHL potential of being a 40-40 player. My #8 ranking might be a little high relative to the norm, but hey, we all have our differing opinions which is what makes projecting these players just so interesting and enjoyable. This draft in my opinion is really good this year which definitely makes ranking players a lot harder than others

That's an outstanding debate for a player you're high on. I certainly see a lot of your points, and I agree there is great reason to hold out for a kid as talented as Noel Gunler. Though I would disagree with your #8 ranking of him, I agree on your more important point, which is that our differing opinions makes the projection of prospects more interesting and enjoyable. It's certainly going to be a fun draft to watch.

 

[ninetyeight]

My picks for the Arizona pick
2. LW Rodion Amirov, Salavat Ufa KHLpure goalscorer also features complete, 200-foot game and high compete level

14. LW Rodion Amirov, Salavat Ufa KHL

I don't get the Amirov hype at all. Do people realize that he's playing in MHL, which is Russian junior league and in my book even below the level of CHL for instance. Some of our Russian posters can correct me, but to my understanding all the best Russian juniors either go play at VHL, straight to KHL or even move early to North America and play at CHL/USHL or whatever. MHL teams would get destroyed by VHL teams, not to mention KHL teams. He may look great, but remember the competition he's facing and the size of the ice he's playing on. Plus he still doesn't produce much, for comparison sake someone like Kuznetsov put 2.0ppg pace in MHL while also doing pretty solid in KHL at the same time. I don't know what type of talent you're expecting him to develop into, but if he's not top6 talent then he shouldn't go top15 or maybe not even in the first round.

But who knows, maybe he does become the next Russian star player, anything is possible. Every year plenty of people with raw talent but nothing to show for, put it all together and suddently become great players. However like always I'm more analytical and go by what they do and not what they can do. I think Amirov's ceiling is a middle6 player, with all the usual concerns that come with Russian players who've only played in Russia, will he ever come to America, and if he does will he adapt to the small rink, faster and more physical game.

 

[glenwo2]

This is obviously a big credit to the five players I ranked ahead of Sanderson.

In the 2019 draft, I thought there was one defenseman with Norris Trophy type upside (Bowen Byram) and one defenseman who was close (Moritz Seider). I ranked them #3 and #11, respectively.

This year, I think there are two defensemen with Norris-type upside in Drysdale and Sanderson, and although there are many other very good defense prospects (Guhle, Schneider and O'Rourke being the three standouts), there's no one else I can confidently say has that type of star potential.

I will say that if I were Detroit picking #4 overall, my choice would be exclusively between Rossi and Sanderson. Though the Wings have a very good future mid-pairing LD in Hronek and a very solid future mid-pairing prospect in McIsaac, Sanderson would give them the true #1 LD they sorely lack. Rossi of course would also be an obvious choice, as he would give them an electrifying 1/2 center punch with Dylan Larkin.

The more I think about it, the more I'm starting to believe that Rossi will be a RedWing due to what you said.

 

[Forge]

Do people realize that he's playing in MHL, which is Russian junior league and in my book even below the level of CHL for instance.

Don't get too lost in this. Russian leagues don't always have the greatest history with handling some of the younger guys (look at Misyul, who we really need to get over here because I'm scared of how they are handling him over there), and most true russian prospects are in the MHL their draft year, especially forwards. Amirov actually made the big boy club to start the season, which is rare. It's a small sample over the last five years, but here are most of the notable "true Russians": Podkolzin last year only split between MHL and VHL (and was less effective in the MHL than Amirov). Denisenko played entirely in the MHL his draft year (though Kravtsov did play in the KHL his entire draft year, I'm pretty sure, which is uber impressive). Kostin had a very truncated draft year and played a handful of games pretty much everywhere I think. Rubtsov was strictly MHL his draft year, and Guryanov spent most of the season in the MHL with a handful of games in the KHL his draft year with fewer KHL games than Amirov.

 

[ninetyeight]

Don't get too lost in this. Russian leagues don't always have the greatest history with handling some of the younger guys (look at Misyul, who we really need to get over here because I'm scared of how they are handling him over there), and most true russian prospects are in the MHL their draft year, especially forwards. Amirov actually made the big boy club to start the season, which is rare. It's a small sample over the last five years, but here are most of the notable "true Russians": Podkolzin last year only split between MHL and VHL (and was less effective in the MHL than Amirov). Denisenko played entirely in the MHL his draft year (though Kravtsov did play in the KHL his entire draft year, I'm pretty sure, which is uber impressive). Kostin had a very truncated draft year and played a handful of games pretty much everywhere I think. Rubtsov was strictly MHL his draft year, and Guryanov spent most of the season in the MHL with a handful of games in the KHL his draft year with fewer KHL games than Amirov.

Maybe, and I think that's one more factor that makes russian players so hard to predict. Most russian prospects may be in MHL in the draft year, but most of the good ones played at least in VHL. Sure there are guys like Dadonov, who don't seem very impressive in their draft year, but soon take huge leaps and eventually become star players. But I feel those are very rare cases and very hard to predict. But we'll see what happens, everyone has different factors for valuing prospects and for me it's very important where and who they play against and do they actually put up points. Everyone looks like a superstar if they are playing against lesser competition.

For what it's worth I'm not very high on Podkolzin either, for me he seems to lack finishing ability.

 

[Forge]

Maybe, and I think that's one more factor that makes russian players so hard to predict. Most russian prospects may be in MHL in the draft year, but most of the good ones played at least in VHL.

But Amirov actually played more games in the KHL this year than he did in the MHL? I'm not sure how others playing in the VHL is some sort of better sign than that. I mean, he made the KHL this year and played 21 games, then 5 in the Vhl and 17 in the MHL. He also played 5 MHL playoff games and 6 VHL playoff games. I'm a little confused as to what you are looking for? Are you just skeptical of russian prospects? I could understand that.

2019 - Podkolzin draft year: 3 KHL, 14 VHL, 12 MHL

2018 -

Vitali Kravtsov draft year: 35 KHL, 9 VHL, 1 MHL (this is probably the most impressive)
Gregori Denisenko draft year: 31 Games in the MHL, did not play anywhere else.
Ruslan Iskhakov draft year: 33 games in the MHL, did not play anywhere else
Kirill Marchenko draft year: 31 games in the MHL, 2 games in the KHL

2017 -

Klim Kostin draft year: 1 MHL, 9 VHL, 8 KHL
Alexander Volkov: 16 MHL, 15 VHL, 0 KHL

2016 -

German Rubtsov draft year: 28 games MHL, did not play anywhere else
Yegor Korshkov draft year he did play mostly in the KHL, but he was a double over ager and already 20 years old. His actual age 18 season, he played 43 games in the MHL and nowhere else
Artur Kayumov draft year he played 39 games in the MHL

2015 -

Denis Guryanov draft year: 23 MHL, 8 KHL

 

[ninetyeight]

But Amirov actually played more games in the KHL this year than he did in the MHL? I'm not sure how others playing in the VHL is some sort of better sign than that. I mean, he made the KHL this year and played 21 games, then 5 in the Vhl and 17 in the MHL. He also played 5 MHL playoff games and 6 VHL playoff games. I'm a little confused as to what you are looking for? Are you just skeptical of russian prospects? I could understand that.

Oh sorry my bad, for some reason I remembered him playing only at MHL. Well either way doesn't seem like he did much at KHL. I'm not really sceptical about russian prospects, I was only trying to point out that MHL is a junior league and the 3rd league in Russia. So the point production there should be treated as such. For instance the difference between CHL and MHL is that more or less every Canadian player goes through CHL, where as the top russian prospects may play at MHL, KHL, VHL or NA (or wherever).

I'm assuming most of the posters here are from Jersey, so I guess I was just wondering what your knowledge of european leagues is. I see a lot of doubt on the swedish prospects not having much points in the SHL, and I feel like some people don't quite know how high level that league is. Even Allsvenskan is way tougher than any second league in Europe.

 

[Forge]

I'm assuming most of the posters here are from Jersey, so I guess I was just wondering what your knowledge of european leagues is. I see a lot of doubt on the swedish prospects not having much points in the SHL, and I feel like some people don't quite know how high level that league is. Even Allsvenskan is way tougher than any second league in Europe.

I'm kind of the opposite...I'm probably a little too forgiving when they are playing up overseas. But I'm probably the biggest supporter of Raymond on the Devils board as he's my #4 player, and Goose can tell you that I'm a fan of Nybeck, though size is a concern, admittedly. I think what Lundell has done in Liiga at that age (not just this year, but last) is underappreciated. But I also see a guy that does a lot of little things but may not necessarily have the highest upside skill in comparison to someone like Raymond and the other prospects. I think having him in that 10-15 range is about right. I like him more than Amirov. I was a huuuuuuuuge fan of Hoglander last year and he was actually my pick for us in the second before we traded the pick for PK, and the year before Kupari was one of my favorite players in the draft.

Actual production matters sometimes, and sometimes it doesn't. I would love to have had Raymond put up more points than he did this year...but he also played like 10 minutes a night, mostly as a bottom six, no power play time...I don't know what I'm supposed to take from that when I'm drafting him to be a top line or at the least, a top 6 player getting PP1 time. So his lack of production in a men's league in a role he's not going to have just doesn't really bother me all that much.

 

[TBF1972]

Well, maybe I'll do a "final final" ranking before the draft. But I put more work into my draft ranking than anything else, because in the prospect/draft analysis world these lists follow you around forever.

If I do another, I'll try to eke in some vegan-friendly humor.

if you do vegan-friendly, you should also do hetro-phobic.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I don't get the Amirov hype at all. Do people realize that he's playing in MHL, which is Russian junior league and in my book even below the level of CHL for instance. Some of our Russian posters can correct me, but to my understanding all the best Russian juniors either go play at VHL, straight to KHL or even move early to North America and play at CHL/USHL or whatever. MHL teams would get destroyed by VHL teams, not to mention KHL teams. He may look great, but remember the competition he's facing and the size of the ice he's playing on. Plus he still doesn't produce much, for comparison sake someone like Kuznetsov put 2.0ppg pace in MHL while also doing pretty solid in KHL at the same time. I don't know what type of talent you're expecting him to develop into, but if he's not top6 talent then he shouldn't go top15 or maybe not even in the first round.

But who knows, maybe he does become the next Russian star player, anything is possible. Every year plenty of people with raw talent but nothing to show for, put it all together and suddently become great players. However like always I'm more analytical and go by what they do and not what they can do. I think Amirov's ceiling is a middle6 player, with all the usual concerns that come with Russian players who've only played in Russia, will he ever come to America, and if he does will he adapt to the small rink, faster and more physical game.

I do not factor in what league a prospect plays in at all in my assessment of them. I remember someone complaining that people were ranking Cale Makar too high because he played in the AJHL. Amirov played pretty much an equal amount in the MHL and KHL. As expected, he was impressive in the MHL and struggled in the KHL.

Amirov's ceiling could be as a middle 6 player. I mean, I personally think he will blossom into a first line goal-scrorer. But the fact that he has a very good all-around game and does not shy from physicality gives him a far higher floor. So you're not talking about a prospect where it's "top 6 or bust". Which is yet another reason I like Amirov in my top 15.

Ultimately, it's possible your assessment of prospects can ease back on the pure statistical and factor in more scouting of prospects. Young players develop in different areas at different rates. If you watch Amirov, you see a high IQ winger who can absolutely snipe it. He has soft hands and really knows how to get himself in shooting positions in tight.

Also impressive about Amirov is his ferocity and shiftiness along the boards. He's really something else when it comes to extending the cycle and figuring out how to transition possession into scoring chances. This also answers the question of why he would be playing in the MHL. Rodion Amirov is probably about 6'0-165. When he makes the NHL one day, he will certainly build at least 15 pounds of muscle, but he's a very slim kid right now. Therefore, his talent of dominating along the boards against kids his own age can be nullified against older competition, which he would face in the VHL and routinely faced in the KHL.

Early in the season, Amirov was playing in the KHL and was absolutely lit up on a highlight reel hit by (also draft eligible) defenseman Alexander Nikishin. Soon after, his KHL team (Salavat Ufa) sent him back down to the MHL. I think the idea was "let the kid develop against kids who can't bully him around". One of the easiest projectables with prospects is the fact that they fill out with age and time in the weight room. This will certainly do wonders for Amirov.

But when you scout Amirov by watching him play, certain undeniable aspects become evident which are not readily available on a stat sheet. He's a volume shooter who is also an outstanding sniper -- fast release, excellent accuracy and very good velocity. He plays a 200-foot game with a high compete level. He is a very good skater with a tremendously silky set of hands.

The question with Amirov comes down with precisely how I started this pro-Amirov statement. Is he a first line sniper capable of perennial 30+ goal seasons in the NHL, comparable to Max Pacioretty? Or is he a two-way, middle six guy who can also blast the puck and score more than the average middle six guy, like an Alex Killorn? I think that's the question we should be asking with a kid like Amirov. Obviously, I have included him in my top 15, so we know how I feel about it.

 

[StevenToddIves]

The more I think about it, the more I'm starting to believe that Rossi will be a RedWing due to what you said.

If I'm the Red Wings, I take Rossi and don't look back. My closest quarantine-buddies have been a couple, a huuuuge Red Wings fan and his extremely-upset-that-hockey-is-back girlfriend. I watched the draft lottery with him and he was extremely upset, until I started talking about how great Marco Rossi is for the next hour. The bottle of Jim Beam also helped.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Maybe, and I think that's one more factor that makes russian players so hard to predict. Most russian prospects may be in MHL in the draft year, but most of the good ones played at least in VHL. Sure there are guys like Dadonov, who don't seem very impressive in their draft year, but soon take huge leaps and eventually become star players. But I feel those are very rare cases and very hard to predict. But we'll see what happens, everyone has different factors for valuing prospects and for me it's very important where and who they play against and do they actually put up points. Everyone looks like a superstar if they are playing against lesser competition.

For what it's worth I'm not very high on Podkolzin either, for me he seems to lack finishing ability.

Everyone wanted Podkolzin to be a Rocket Richard kind of guy, but the truth is he's like a Russian Tkachuk brother. That's what you're getting with him.

 

[StevenToddIves]

But Amirov actually played more games in the KHL this year than he did in the MHL? I'm not sure how others playing in the VHL is some sort of better sign than that. I mean, he made the KHL this year and played 21 games, then 5 in the Vhl and 17 in the MHL. He also played 5 MHL playoff games and 6 VHL playoff games. I'm a little confused as to what you are looking for? Are you just skeptical of russian prospects? I could understand that.

2019 - Podkolzin draft year: 3 KHL, 14 VHL, 12 MHL

2018 -

Vitali Kravtsov draft year: 35 KHL, 9 VHL, 1 MHL (this is probably the most impressive)
Gregori Denisenko draft year: 31 Games in the MHL, did not play anywhere else.
Ruslan Iskhakov draft year: 33 games in the MHL, did not play anywhere else
Kirill Marchenko draft year: 31 games in the MHL, 2 games in the KHL

2017 -

Klim Kostin draft year: 1 MHL, 9 VHL, 8 KHL
Alexander Volkov: 16 MHL, 15 VHL, 0 KHL

2016 -

German Rubtsov draft year: 28 games MHL, did not play anywhere else
Yegor Korshkov draft year he did play mostly in the KHL, but he was a double over ager and already 20 years old. His actual age 18 season, he played 43 games in the MHL and nowhere else
Artur Kayumov draft year he played 39 games in the MHL

2015 -

Denis Guryanov draft year: 23 MHL, 8 KHL

This was terrific. Do you mind taking over my thread for me? I pulled a quad playing softball yesterday and I just plan on spending the next week whining like a baby.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Oh sorry my bad, for some reason I remembered him playing only at MHL. Well either way doesn't seem like he did much at KHL. I'm not really sceptical about russian prospects, I was only trying to point out that MHL is a junior league and the 3rd league in Russia. So the point production there should be treated as such. For instance the difference between CHL and MHL is that more or less every Canadian player goes through CHL, where as the top russian prospects may play at MHL, KHL, VHL or NA (or wherever).

I'm assuming most of the posters here are from Jersey, so I guess I was just wondering what your knowledge of european leagues is. I see a lot of doubt on the swedish prospects not having much points in the SHL, and I feel like some people don't quite know how high level that league is. Even Allsvenskan is way tougher than any second league in Europe.

I would say Allsvenskan is on the same level as the VHL, while the MHL is on the same level as Swedish juniors or Finnish juniors. I would certainly rank the CHL over all of these leagues. The USHL is probably closer to Allsvenskan and the VHL even though it's a junior league. The NCAA is better than all of these, if you're high on Dylan Holloway or Yan Kuznetsov. The BCHL is just shy of the MHL and Scandinavian junior leagues, and the NAHL is a couple levels below that.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I'm kind of the opposite...I'm probably a little too forgiving when they are playing up overseas. But I'm probably the biggest supporter of Raymond on the Devils board as he's my #4 player, and Goose can tell you that I'm a fan of Nybeck, though size is a concern, admittedly. I think what Lundell has done in Liiga at that age (not just this year, but last) is underappreciated. But I also see a guy that does a lot of little things but may not necessarily have the highest upside skill in comparison to someone like Raymond and the other prospects. I think having him in that 10-15 range is about right. I like him more than Amirov. I was a huuuuuuuuge fan of Hoglander last year and he was actually my pick for us in the second before we traded the pick for PK, and the year before Kupari was one of my favorite players in the draft.

Actual production matters sometimes, and sometimes it doesn't. I would love to have had Raymond put up more points than he did this year...but he also played like 10 minutes a night, mostly as a bottom six, no power play time...I don't know what I'm supposed to take from that when I'm drafting him to be a top line or at the least, a top 6 player getting PP1 time. So his lack of production in a men's league in a role he's not going to have just doesn't really bother me all that much.

Amen.

You're hired.

 

[Offseason Champs]

My question is that if Rossi is such a complete player why is he never in a top 3 discussion? I get being under Laf, but does Rossi’s size hold him back or that he does everything well but isn’t best in class in any one area?

 

[My3Sons]

My question is that if Rossi is such a complete player why is he never in a top 3 discussion? I get being under Laf, but does Rossi’s size hold him back or that he does everything well but isn’t best in class in any one area?

I had asked that question indirectly. If Rossi was a six footer where would he be in the conversation and I think the answer was he'd be considered right after Lafreniere with Byfield and Stutzle.

 

[ninetyeight]

I do not factor in what league a prospect plays in at all in my assessment of them.

That's fair, you can judge players simply how they move and what decisions they make, but it does require quite an eye and experience in the sport. But I still feel it's easier to look good and get away with things if the competition (especially the defence and goaltending) is not very high level.

I remember someone complaining that people were ranking Cale Makar too high because he played in the AJHL.

Cale Makar did put crazy points for a defenceman on that league though, but still I never expected him to do what he's already done in the NHL for that very reason.

Amirov played pretty much an equal amount in the MHL and KHL. As expected, he was impressive in the MHL and struggled in the KHL. Amirov's ceiling could be as a middle 6 player. I mean, I personally think he will blossom into a first line goal-scrorer. But the fact that he has a very good all-around game and does not shy from physicality gives him a far higher floor. So you're not talking about a prospect where it's "top 6 or bust". Which is yet another reason I like Amirov in my top 15.

I mean I'd happy to take him early second round or possibly late first round, but to take him with the Arizona pick (as was suggested) he would have to be elite caliber for me. Stats wise 1.3ppg in the MHL and nothing in KHL is not that for me. Every year there's like 20-30 guys who put over 1.0ppg in MHL, yet most of them go undrafted and never make it out of Russia. And like I said earlier, it's entirely possible that he eventually starts scoring and becomes an elite player, I just can't predict that so I have to go with what info I have. Panarin had similar stats in MHL in his draft year (although 0.5ppg in KHL too) and went undrafted, and turned out to be a superstar. Kucherov had similar stats in MHL and was drafted relatively late and became arguably the best russian player atm. So it can happen, but I think more often than not it doesn't.

But when you scout Amirov by watching him play, certain undeniable aspects become evident which are not readily available on a stat sheet. He's a volume shooter who is also an outstanding sniper -- fast release, excellent accuracy and very good velocity. He plays a 200-foot game with a high compete level. He is a very good skater with a tremendously silky set of hands.

But is he an excellent sniper though? Or does he just play against weak competition, 0 goals in 21 KHL games suggests that the accuracy is not there when the goalies are high level. I feel like the earlier mentioned Podkolzin is very similar, looks great and noticable with the puck, but hardly ever scores.

Couple of hfboards posters shared the same exact thoughts in the Amirov thread:

something about his game is unconvincing to me. You see a kid with all this skill, creating advantages for his team mates, getting to dangerous spots on the ice. And that's it. You can only say ''almost!'' so many times before you start noticing a pattern. There are quite a few prospects who could do more with the opportunities Amirov gets than Amirov does. Take a guy like Mysak for example. He's a pretty unassuming character until he gets a clear look at the net. Amirov is quite the opposite: #27 in green is pretty easy to spot, he's always on the puck, he's always making good plays, but more often than not he'll leave you wanting more. Or at least that's been my feeling when watching him.

-NotProkofievian

Extremely well put, I've got the exact same feelings when watching him play. He makes himself very noticeable on the ice with his skating, skills, effort and very responsible all around game, but it feels like he doesn't really have neither high end playmaking or goal scoring ability, so the end result just doesn't match the looks. I've started to doubt if he can actually become a consistent top 6 point producer in the NHL, which is why he has dropped in my rankings. Hopefully I'm wrong, because I really like the player he is majority of the time. But if he can't produce consistently, I'm not sure if he'll stick in the NHL for too long, if he ever gets there.

-Tuntrui

I would say Allsvenskan is on the same level as the VHL, while the MHL is on the same level as Swedish juniors or Finnish juniors. I would certainly rank the CHL over all of these leagues. The USHL is probably closer to Allsvenskan and the VHL even though it's a junior league. The NCAA is better than all of these, if you're high on Dylan Holloway or Yan Kuznetsov. The BCHL is just shy of the MHL and Scandinavian junior leagues, and the NAHL is a couple levels below that.

Allsvenskan serves as sort of the B-league for SHL, every year the bottom 2 SHL teams play against the top 4 teams of Allsvenskan to see which teams stay/rise to SHL. So Allsvenskan is very competitive even against SHL teams. I feel the best Allsvenskan teams could even beat some DEL/NLA/Extraliga teams. Unlike finnish B-league "Mestis" which is not only miles below Liiga, but would probably have their work cut out to beat MHL teams (and finnish juniors are way below swedish and russian juniors, except maybe in terms of goaltenders)

 

[StevenToddIves]

My question is that if Rossi is such a complete player why is he never in a top 3 discussion? I get being under Laf, but does Rossi’s size hold him back or that he does everything well but isn’t best in class in any one area?

If Rossi could skate like Stutzle or was 6'0 like Stutzle, I suspect he would be in the top 3 conversation for many. Stutzle's combination of hands/skating/vision cannot be overstated. Not quite at a Jack Hughes level, but in the ballpark.

I've seen Rossi ranked as low as #9, and I don't understand this. He's the best two-way forward in the draft, his compete level is off the charts, his hockey IQ is almost ridiculous -- and this doesn't even touch on his offensive skill set, which is truly dynamic. I do not have him so far behind Stutzle -- no significant drop-off between #3 and #4 overall.

 

[StevenToddIves]

That's fair, you can judge players simply how they move and what decisions they make, but it does require quite an eye and experience in the sport. But I still feel it's easier to look good and get away with things if the competition (especially the defence and goaltending) is not very high level.



Cale Makar did put crazy points for a defenceman on that league though, but still I never expected him to do what he's already done in the NHL for that very reason.



I mean I'd happy to take him early second round or possibly late first round, but to take him with the Arizona pick (as was suggested) he would have to be elite caliber for me. Stats wise 1.3ppg in the MHL and nothing in KHL is not that for me. Every year there's like 20-30 guys who put over 1.0ppg in MHL, yet most of them go undrafted and never make it out of Russia. And like I said earlier, it's entirely possible that he eventually starts scoring and becomes an elite player, I just can't predict that so I have to go with what info I have. Panarin had similar stats in MHL in his draft year (although 0.5ppg in KHL too) and went undrafted, and turned out to be a superstar. Kucherov had similar stats in MHL and was drafted relatively late and became arguably the best russian player atm. So it can happen, but I think more often than not it doesn't.



But is he an excellent sniper though? Or does he just play against weak competition, 0 goals in 21 KHL games suggests that the accuracy is not there when the goalies are high level. I feel like the earlier mentioned Podkolzin is very similar, looks great and noticable with the puck, but hardly ever scores.

Couple of hfboards posters shared the same exact thoughts in the Amirov thread:
-NotProkofievian
-Tuntrui




Allsvenskan serves as sort of the B-league for SHL, every year the bottom 2 SHL teams play against the top 4 teams of Allsvenskan to see which teams stay/rise to SHL. So Allsvenskan is very competitive even against SHL teams. I feel the best Allsvenskan teams could even beat some DEL/NLA/Extraliga teams. Unlike finnish B-league "Mestis" which is not only miles below Liiga, but would probably have their work cut out to beat MHL teams (and finnish juniors are way below swedish and russian juniors, except maybe in terms of goaltenders)

There's a lot to respond here, and you make an extremely comprehensive series of points. But I am compelled to repeat my recurrent stance that statistics cannot be used as the foremost tool in assessing draft-eligible prospects. Were this the case, we'd be talking about taking Tristen Robins in the first round and Lucas Raymond in the fourth round. There are always variables, and the players need to be scouted by watching them, and watching them more, and then watching them even more.

With Rodion Amirov, I'm not comparing him to Alex Ovechkin. But I am saying that Max Pacioretty is a good comparable. Pacioretty dropped far below where he deserved to be taken in 2007 due to an entirely unremarkable 21 goals in 60 games for Sioux City of the USHL. The Fs drafted immediately ahead of him included names like Logan MacMillan, Angelo Esposito, Brandon Sutter. All three of those players produced similarly or better than Pacioretty in the "more competitive CHL". But Pacioretty was clearly the best pick of the four. Like Pacioretty in 2006-07, Amirov is a skinny kid with a projectable build, a terrific shot and very, very good all-around game. Both of them are extremely smart and hard-working LWs. I had Pacioretty at the #15 overall range in 2007, and I have Amirov in the #15 overall range in 2020.

The problem with dwelling to specifically on the league-levels and statistical output of 17/18 year olds is, without a doubt, why you were surprised by the success of a Cale Makar. Because watching Makar play in 2016-17, I was blown away in every viewing. His skating and vision were downright phenomenal, there was just an electricity whenever he stepped onto the ice. I didn't care if Makar was playing in the Pakistan D League -- clearly he had all the tools to be an NHL star.

Do I factor in statistics and league-levels into my assessment of prospects? Absolutely -- I'd be foolhardy not to. However, I realize that they are a piece of the puzzle, and they are far from the largest pieces in the puzzle.

 

[Offseason Champs]

I had asked that question indirectly. If Rossi was a six footer where would he be in the conversation and I think the answer was he'd be considered right after Lafreniere with Byfield and Stutzle.

much thanks. I haven’t looked through every post too in depth so I appreciate the time to sort of “re-answer” it, even if it’s confirming what I already figured to be the answer. Means maybe I’m actually learning a thing about prospect evaluation lol

If Rossi could skate like Stutzle or was 6'0 like Stutzle, I suspect he would be in the top 3 conversation for many. Stutzle's combination of hands/skating/vision cannot be overstated. Not quite at a Jack Hughes level, but in the ballpark.

I've seen Rossi ranked as low as #9, and I don't understand this. He's the best two-way forward in the draft, his compete level is off the charts, his hockey IQ is almost ridiculous -- and this doesn't even touch on his offensive skill set, which is truly dynamic. I do not have him so far behind Stutzle -- no significant drop-off between #3 and #4 overall.

yeah I’ve been watching a lot of highlights and stuff preparing for us not to draft him and watch another marner/barzal type guy go elsewhere and light it up and he does look very impressive. Im a little bit wary of the two way label even though I probably shouldn’t be. Offensively he’ll still probably be right there with Nico and Jack as the best on the team if he ended up here.

 

[ninetyeight]

players need to be scouted by watching them, and watching them more, and then watching them even more.
Do I factor in statistics and league-levels into my assessment of prospects? Absolutely -- I'd be foolhardy not to. However, I realize that they are a piece of the puzzle, and they are far from the largest pieces in the puzzle.

Obviously I too watch them, but there's only so much time and so many prospects. Most of my intel is from international tournaments, Liiga, and youtube highlights. Why I value points so much is guys like Zacha, who haven't really shown any point production prior to their draft year, but scouts and media insists that he's a top10 prospect with the usual phrase "the points will come". And they never will, it's extremely rare that someone who hasn't show the ability to produce will suddently figure it out at the highest level of hockey. Skating, hockey iq, vision and such are all well and good, but it all comes down to can they put up points or not.

statistics cannot be used as the foremost tool in assessing draft-eligible prospects. Were this the case, we'd be talking about taking Tristen Robins in the first round and Lucas Raymond in the fourth round.

While I completely see what you mean, I'd just like to point out (for others) that Lucas Raymond is a bit different in that he had some illness going on and got hardly any ice time at Frölunda. He still put up a decent amount of points in a very tough SHL and almost 2.0ppg at juniors, not to mention the season before that where he was just amazing at international games.

Would like to hear your deeper analysis on Robins though, he's a very intriguing player. Another player who is supposedly too small for NHL (he's about the same size as Hughes). The people who have seen him the most seem to be the most high on him. Scouts say he has good skating, good shot and good hockey iq. There's some critisism that his all-around game needs work and he tends to give the puck away, yet at the same time he has the best +- in the team by far, so I don't know. But of course what's the most interesting for me is that he puts up a lot of points! The problem is that he didn't really do that before, and most of the points last season he put in the last few months. So is he a late bloomer and possibly a great steal or just an average prospect who just happened to hit a hot streak. Any chance someone takes him late first round / early 2nd?

 

[My3Sons]

Obviously I too watch them, but there's only so much time and so many prospects. Most of my intel is from international tournaments, Liiga, and youtube highlights. Why I value points so much is guys like Zacha, who haven't really shown any point production prior to their draft year, but scouts and media insists that he's a top10 prospect with the usual phrase "the points will come". And they never will, it's extremely rare that someone who hasn't show the ability to produce will suddently figure it out at the highest level of hockey. Skating, hockey iq, vision and such are all well and good, but it all comes down to can they put up points or not.



While I completely see what you mean, I'd just like to point out (for others) that Lucas Raymond is a bit different in that he had some illness going on and got hardly any ice time at Frölunda. He still put up a decent amount of points in a very tough SHL and almost 2.0ppg at juniors, not to mention the season before that where he was just amazing at international games.

Would like to hear your deeper analysis on Robins though, he's a very intriguing player. Another player who is supposedly too small for NHL (he's about the same size as Hughes). The people who have seen him the most seem to be the most high on him. Scouts say he has good skating, good shot and good hockey iq. There's some critisism that his all-around game needs work and he tends to give the puck away, yet at the same time he has the best +- in the team by far, so I don't know. But of course what's the most interesting for me is that he puts up a lot of points! The problem is that he didn't really do that before, and most of the points last season he put in the last few months. So is he a late bloomer and possibly a great steal or just an average prospect who just happened to hit a hot streak. Any chance someone takes him late first round / early 2nd?

Bratt is too small for the NHL yet here we are. Probably something about the heart of the fight in the dog or something like that.

 

[TBF1972]

This is obviously a big credit to the five players I ranked ahead of Sanderson.

In the 2019 draft, I thought there was one defenseman with Norris Trophy type upside (Bowen Byram) and one defenseman who was close (Moritz Seider). I ranked them #3 and #11, respectively.

This year, I think there are two defensemen with Norris-type upside in Drysdale and Sanderson, and although there are many other very good defense prospects (Guhle, Schneider and O'Rourke being the three standouts), there's no one else I can confidently say has that type of star potential.

I will say that if I were Detroit picking #4 overall, my choice would be exclusively between Rossi and Sanderson. Though the Wings have a very good future mid-pairing LD in Hronek and a very solid future mid-pairing prospect in McIsaac, Sanderson would give them the true #1 LD they sorely lack. Rossi of course would also be an obvious choice, as he would give them an electrifying 1/2 center punch with Dylan Larkin.

Hronek is a RHS RD like Seider. They could really use Sanderson in their prospect pipeline.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Obviously I too watch them, but there's only so much time and so many prospects. Most of my intel is from international tournaments, Liiga, and youtube highlights. Why I value points so much is guys like Zacha, who haven't really shown any point production prior to their draft year, but scouts and media insists that he's a top10 prospect with the usual phrase "the points will come". And they never will, it's extremely rare that someone who hasn't show the ability to produce will suddently figure it out at the highest level of hockey. Skating, hockey iq, vision and such are all well and good, but it all comes down to can they put up points or not.



While I completely see what you mean, I'd just like to point out (for others) that Lucas Raymond is a bit different in that he had some illness going on and got hardly any ice time at Frölunda. He still put up a decent amount of points in a very tough SHL and almost 2.0ppg at juniors, not to mention the season before that where he was just amazing at international games.

Would like to hear your deeper analysis on Robins though, he's a very intriguing player. Another player who is supposedly too small for NHL (he's about the same size as Hughes). The people who have seen him the most seem to be the most high on him. Scouts say he has good skating, good shot and good hockey iq. There's some critisism that his all-around game needs work and he tends to give the puck away, yet at the same time he has the best +- in the team by far, so I don't know. But of course what's the most interesting for me is that he puts up a lot of points! The problem is that he didn't really do that before, and most of the points last season he put in the last few months. So is he a late bloomer and possibly a great steal or just an average prospect who just happened to hit a hot streak. Any chance someone takes him late first round / early 2nd?

I really don't have enough good things to say about Tristen Robins. He shot up my rankings at the end of the year. I'm baffled why he did not shoot up everyone's rankings -- he had 54 points in his final 33 games of the season. No, that's not a typo.

Why did it take Robins so long to blossom? I'm not entirely certain. Part of it was surely his usage. He was buried on a Saskatoon 2018-19 roster behind a litany of older, very good forwards on a team which expected to compete for the Memorial Cup. That, combined with his likely 5'9-150 size (I don't know who listed him at 5'11, but it's clearly an exaggeration) left him off virtually everyone's pre-season draft rankings for 2019-20.

At the outset of the season, Robins was playing primarily on the wing in a middle six role. Within a couple of months, Saskatoon moved him to a permanent role as the top line center, and he just took off. Like I said, 54 points in 33 games -- he was as offensively productive as Jarvis and Zary over the season's final months.

What are you getting with Robins? Well, I have him ranked #41 overall, and I'm quite worried that I'm under-selling him. He's got lightning speed and incredible agility. He's a terrific shooter and passer, and his puck-handling is ridiculous -- all things you'd hope for with an undersized forward. What really impresses me the most is he is extremely competitive, fearless even -- and plays a gritty, two-way game. Robins is a very complete player, and I'd say he compares quite well to two similar smaller centers I have ranked ahead of him in Marat Khusnutdinov and Roni Hirvonen. I can say with sincerity that ranking Robins third of the three has less to do with where he deserves to be ranked and more to do with the fact that I've been high on Khusnutdinov and Hirvonen since the outset of the season and Robins has rocketed up my rankings out of virtually nowhere.

The fact is that Robins is one of the top sleepers in the 2020 draft. I've seen him left off several top 100 lists. There's always risk with a 5'9 center just as there's always risk with a kid who is such a late riser. But the fact remains that you don't need to pick this kid in the first round -- Tristen Robins is the player you draft in the third round who might make you look like an absolute genius down the road.

To be honest, I haven't seen many rank Robins as high as I have at #41, and it still bothered me that I ranked him out of the first round. The truth is I'm a very insecure ranker. But what I can say with confidence is this -- out of any player I'm certain will not be a first round pick, Tristen Robins is the most likely to become a point-per-game stud in the NHL. He can score so many ways it's almost frightening. He's a ridiculously accurate shooter, who gets his shot off with a lightning-quick release. Unlike most smaller players, he loves to go to the tough areas of the ice and can also add a lot of garbage goals. He has a perfect sense of when to pass or shoot, and he's also an outstanding playmaker. The kid is just a player, through and through.