WJC: 2020 IIHF WM U20 D1A in Minsk, BELARUS (9.12 - 15.12 2019)

[Namejs]

Maybe more like 65%. That's still almost double the chance to win, as in, heavy favorites.

But more importantly, I don't see what is it that Latvia has over Belarus. I think we can establish quite clearly Belarus has a better defense, better offense and arguably a slight edge in goal as well. So all in all, other than the hope that Latvians are well-oiled and Belarus disjointed, what is there in Latvia's favor? 4th line depth?

I would short that bet any day all day. There are too many other decent teams in a short round robin tournament.

I don't see any edge in goal and our bottom 6 and lower pairing Ds are better.

 

[Namejs]

Norway 6-2 Slovenia

Latvia 1-0 up against the Danes so far.

We look a little better, but I'm surprised that we're lacking in size against them. It's usually not a problem.

A few sloppy mistakes and a disjointed PP at times, too.

But I like the scrappy AND offensively minded mindset that we have. It will probably lead to high scoring games, which is fun.

If we do win the tournament, a whopping 16 players, including all the defencemen, qualify for the next year's tournament, which would be pretty cool. Silovs, Sejejs brothers, Marcinkevics brothers and a few nice 2003 prospects could bolster this team even more.

 

[Namejs]

That 2nd goal was a beaut

2-0 after the 2nd

 

[Howe Elbows 9]

With a 2-0 lead, it's looking pretty good for Latvia after two periods.

 

[Namejs]

SOG are 24:11 and chances are even more lopsided, we must bury this one

 

[SoundAndFury]

No shocks here, Denmark just doesn't have what it takes to compete with the big boys this year. Which brings us back to this topic:

There are too many other decent teams in a short round robin tournament.

What are those? We now have all the evidence to say Denmark isn't even close to competitive. Austria? Norway? Come on now.

 

[Namejs]

No shocks here, Denmark just doesn't have what it takes to compete with the big boys this year. Which brings us back to this topic:



What are those? We now have all the evidence to say Denmark isn't even close to competitive. Austria? Norway? Come on now.

I'm fine with a small bet against Belarus winning, if the odds are 2.85 (roughly 65% implied probability).

If they don't win, you'll pay me 285€, if they do win, I'll pay you 100€. Because that's what you're saying the odds are.

 

[Namejs]

No shocks here, Denmark just doesn't have what it takes to compete with the big boys this year. Which brings us back to this topic:



What are those? We now have all the evidence to say Denmark isn't even close to competitive. Austria? Norway? Come on now.

Oh, and the odds on Latvia were 3.00 coming into the game. Look at the poll numbers right here.

Seems like a shock to everyone else.

 

[SoundAndFury]

I'm fine with a small bet against Belarus winning, if the odds are 2.85 (roughly 65% implied probability).

If they don't win, you'll pay me 285€, if they do win, I'll pay you 100€. Because that's what you're saying the odds are.

Sounds pretty fair to me. You will have a chance to bet on Latvia once they play Belarus because it's almost undoubtedly what the promotion in this division will come down to. And yes, the coefficient for Latvia will be in that 2.85 ballpark which I think you quite clearly understand yourself. Maybe it will be closer to 2.6 just because Belarus will be done with 3 walk-over games by that point.

Oh, and the odds on Latvia were 3.00 coming into the game. Look at the poll numbers right here.

Seems like a shock to everyone else.

Don't pretend you are stupid. Bookmakers base their bets on the past results, they aren't sitting there digging through the rosters of U20 hockey D1A teams. You could look at the history and see some hilarious betting events, like when Canadians stopped coming to play for Croatia. Romania survives << the odds for Romanians were 9.5 for this game they won 7-3. And should have won because naturally without Cronucks it's a wipeout. But bookmakers don't really follow their events the way fans do.

Same way fans who voted in the poll likely had no idea this is the worst Danish squad in the last 10 years, at least. Which, I don't doubt, you know that it is.

 

[Namejs]

Sounds pretty fair to me. You will have a chance to bet on Latvia once they play Belarus because it's almost undoubtedly what the promotion in this division will come down to. And yes, the coefficient for Latvia will be in that 2.85 ballpark which I think you quite clearly understand yourself. Maybe it will be closer to 2.6 just because Belarus will be done with 3 walk-over games by that point.


Don't pretend you are stupid. Bookmakers base their bets on the past results, they aren't sitting there digging through the rosters of U20 hockey D1A teams. You could look at the history and see some hilarious betting events, like when Canadians stopped coming to play for Croatia. Romania survives << the odds for Romanians were 9.5 for this game they won 7-3. And should have won because naturally without Cronucks it's a wipeout. But bookmakers don't really follow their events the way fans do.

Same way fans who voted in the poll likely had no idea this is the worst Danish squad in the last 10 years, at least. Which, I don't doubt, you know that it is.

We shall see. Belarus is a little overrated, Latvia was heavily underrated is sort of my main point here.

Hockey is a game of chance and there are 3 other teams capable of getting points off of Belarus. Let's just see what happens.

 

[SoundAndFury]

Hockey is a game of chance and there are 3 other teams capable of getting points off of Belarus. Let's just see what happens.

At least we both agreed Belarus can just mail it in against Slovenia

In general, I can agree, Latvia doesn't have any big names so naturally many people in this NHL-centered hockey universe are going to underrate them. And if you underrate Latvians naturally the gap between Belarus and the rest seems even bigger. But at the same time, Belarus does seemingly have all that is needed to win this, it's their tournament to lose.

Having said that, if Belarus looks like crap against Austria I guess we might have to rethink all that. I remember expectations being sky-high for that 13-14 Latvian team with Merzlikins, Punnenovs, Bluegers, Jevpalovs, Kulda, Lipsbergs, etc. And they looked like absolute ass. And lost to Denmark 4-1.

 

[ozo]

As soon as I'm about to type that Belarus looks two levels above Austria, they decide to gift a goal to Austria.

 

[kabidjan18]

Lmao. Ploner just scored. That's shis first goal in 2019 probably and he doesn't get assists either

 

[SoundAndFury]

That's nerves probably but that Kolyachyonok giveaway.. Woof.

This looks like it's going to be goal fiesta.

 

[Namejs]

. I remember expectations being sky-high for that 13-14 Latvian team with Merzlikins, Punnenovs, Bluegers, Jevpalovs, Kulda, Lipsbergs, etc. And they looked like absolute ass. And lost to Denmark 4-1.

It's exactly the reason why I'm betting against Belarus. I had that Latvian team in mind when talking about average CHL prospects and I've been trying to temper Belarusian expectations concerning their legion of kids playing in CHL in general.

The CHL is a bad place for player development if you're 19 or older. Really, it's a way of wasting talent rather than anything else. And that's what nearly always happens to these <PPG caliber forwards, they overstay there.

And when they all come over with their jet lag and no understanding of what is wanted from them, sometimes what you get is ass. And Belarusians have a lot of CHLers.

 

[kabidjan18]

I'd give belarus a better chance to score on our 2nd pp unit than us.

 

[SoundAndFury]

Protas does look freaking dominant though.

All 5 lefties on 1st PP unit for Belarus. Not sure about that idea.

3-2 8-5 final incoming.

 

[kabidjan18]

Lol Tim. Always trying to style.

 

[ozo]

Another year with a goalie that can't make a save...

 

[kabidjan18]

Very creative trip Max haha

Behind the back trip move. The next big deke.

 

[kunabai]

this is the confirmation that tolopilo is just not ready.

dudik is a funny guy, but not a coach also. i'll never get buyalski over kazyanin, tolopilo over zinovenko also.
if they promote it's totally players fault. i had doubted that, now i doubt that more, and just hope they'll silence me.

disastrous first period.

 

[kabidjan18]

Timo Pallierer and Martin Urbanek are the other two players on the roster with no goals this year. If they both score then we might only lose by 3 haha

 

[kabidjan18]

this is the confirmation that tolopilo is just not ready.

dudik is a funny guy, but not a coach also. i'll never get buyalski over kazyanin.
if they promote it's totally players fault. i had doubted that, now i doubt that more, and just hope they'll silence me.

disastrous first period.

You got scored on by Valentin Ploner. No personnel change can account for that, it must be something supernatural.

 

[kunabai]

You got scored on by Valentin Ploner. No personnel change can account for that, it must be something supernatural.

yeah, you're right, just trying to remember anything not connected with the game, it's literally hard to watch.

they have just forgotten that crease, rebounds and defense in general do exist. too slow also.

and around 15 artists are trying to do some highlight material. and they are getting some while being scored on.

 

[kabidjan18]

yeah, you're right, just trying to remember anything not connected with the game, it's literally hard to watch.

they have just forgotten that crease, rebounds and defense in general do exist

Don't worry. You'll still win.

If ploner scores again it will be the best WJC ever.