WJC: 2020 IIHF WM U20 D1A in Minsk, BELARUS (9.12 - 15.12 2019)

Discussion in 'International Tournaments' started by Pan, Nov 5, 2019.

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Who will promote to the WJC top division?

Poll closed Nov 30, 2019.
  1. Denmark

    33.3%
  2. Belarus

    45.8%
  3. Norway

    4.2%
  4. Latvia

    4.2%
  5. Austria

    4.2%
  6. Slovenia

    8.3%
  1. kabidjan18

    kabidjan18 Registered User

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    Who cares about the U20 team? No one. It makes the federation no money. No funding comes from the event. Hosting the event brings in no revenue. No one actually cares about the U20 event. The U20 team only exists as a potential feeder for the senior team, the senior team is the only team that matters, which Peeters may or may not some day participate in. Namejs brought up some stat like some ridiculously high percentage of U20 players never represent the senior team. I forgot if it was 70 or 80.

    Ok, let's break down Peeters from the federation's perspective then. He's not a ready made player. He's not guaranteed to ever play. There you go. That's all the analysis there is. And I already did that analysis above but your selective reading filtered it out.

    Children deciding to change nationalities has never been a point of contention for me. Ever. I never bitched about unfair federation practices when we lost kids to Switzerland, or when Estonia lost kids to Finland. I was unhappy. I wish it had been otherwise. But I never even pretended to equate it to the old practice of federations naturalizing foreign league imports. You only think they're the same because you do whine when Belarus loses kids to Russia. So you want to lump it in as being the same as Canadians getting Korean citizenship etc. Where the "real" categorizations lie is some meaningless philosophical question. For me, kids deciding something and adults deciding something is different. For you, they're exactly the same.

    The Steffler boys both had Austrian citizenship prior to coming to the country through their mother, but I don't get the sense that would phase your promulgation of a narrative.
     
  2. pukovnik

    pukovnik Registered User

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    I feel so sorry for him. Now he will represent Estonia, his native country, and won't have a chance to have such successful NT career in Finland jersey's like Siim Liivik had.:sarcasm:
     
  3. pukovnik

    pukovnik Registered User

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    With all do respect, when did you lose kids to Switzerland ? I can't recall single impactful player that went through Swiss junior system and opted for them instead Aut ?
     
  4. kabidjan18

    kabidjan18 Registered User

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    The two most notable cases for me personally were Jason Puntus and Jonas Taibel.

    But your usage of the word "impactful" is exactly what I'm going for. You'll look at their EP pages and go "oh, well that didn't matter." But that's my point. That's the way it is with kids. Kids are not sure things. Kids turn out to not be what was expected. The same could be true of Senna. Sometimes, kids don't even become professional players at all. The fact that they are or are not impactful is borne out by the future, not made prior to their decisions.
     
  5. ozo

    ozo Registered User

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    9:2 exhibition game win against Austria. By the looks of it this won't be a fun tournament for them.
     
  6. ozo

    ozo Registered User

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  7. SoundAndFury

    SoundAndFury Registered User

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    Should still absolutely cream Slovenia. Now that is one country that really won't be having a fun one.

    Also come to think of it, with the season Baumgartner is having, Austria probably has the best player in the division, don't they? Any other realistic contenders for the title? Pettersen? Protas?
     
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2019
  8. smitty10

    smitty10 Registered User

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    I'd think Austria would be a contender along with Belarus and Denmark. Unless their top CHL players aren't attending. Rossi should be the best player in the tournament.

    Are these guys attending?

    Rossi
    Nickl
    Peeters
    Hochegger
    Maier
    Steffler
     
  9. Maverick41

    Maverick41 Registered User Sponsor

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    It looks like Rossi won't be there and Hochegger is injured and will probably miss the tournament as well.
    I found the following roster for the tournament:

    PosFirst NameLast NamecmkgBirthdateShotTeam
    GKLucaEGGER1867513.09.2000LEC Panaceo VSV (AUT)
    GKAlexanderSCHMIDT1757826.02.2000LEC Panaceo VSV (AUT)
    GKSebastianWRANESCHITZ1777306.03.2002LSkelleftea AIK (SWE)
    DLuisLINDNER1807016.05.2001LBoston Junior Bruins (USA)
    DDavidMAIER1867912.01.2000RPeterborough Petes (CAN)
    DThimoNICKL1877304.12.2001RDrummondville Voltigeurs (CAN)
    DTimoPALLIERER1767121.06.2001LEV Vienna Capitals (AUT)
    DJulianPAYR1938523.07.2000LHC Ambri-Piotta (SUI)
    DJacobPFEFFER1758211.02.2001LÖrebro HK (SWE)
    DMartinURBANEK1716308.05.2002REC Panaceo VSV (AUT)
    DJakobWETZELSBERGER1827321.08.2000LHC TWK Innsbruck (AUT)
    FPatrickANTAL1686624.10.2000LEV Vienna Capitals (AUT)
    FBenjaminBAUMGARTNER1757522.04.2000LHC Davos (SUI)
    FTimHARNISCH1777818.04.2001LEC Red Bull Salzburg (AUT)
    FPaulHUBER1929210.06.2000LEC Red Bull Salzburg (AUT)
    FBenjaminLANZINGER1737725.01.2000REC Panaceo VSV (AUT)
    FSennaPEETERS1857614.06.2002RHalifax Mooseheads (CAN)
    FValentinPLONER1888924.05.2000REC KAC (AUT)
    FMaximilianREBERNIG1918703.09.2000LEC Red Bull Salzburg (AUT)
    FPaulSCHMID1807010.06.2000LSkien IHK (NOR)
    FLucasTHALER1757021.01.2002RMora IK (SWE)
    FLeonWALLNER1807301.07.2002RSödertalje SK(SWE)
    FBenediktWOHLFAHRT1746826.07.2000LEC Panaceo VSV (AUT)
     
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  10. kabidjan18

    kabidjan18 Registered User

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    Rossi is not attending. Hochegger is hurt. Another great defenseman Kili Zundel is hurt.

    Like I said at the outset, even if all those guys were there I don't think we'd be contenders. We maybe have the offense for one upset or something but our defense is atrocious and our offense is not that good either. I'm happy that we have a lot of individual players whose careers are coming along nicely, but it will not translate to these tournaments.
     
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2019
    smitty10 likes this.
  11. Namejs

    Namejs The Buffalo Dahlins

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    And you would think that because they have a few prospects in the CHL? The CHL is a kid's league. Just because you're playing there doesn't mean you're going to be a difference maker at this level.

    Rossi is great, but he's not playing.

    As for Denmark, I looked through their U20 guys in North America and Europe, they don't look like contenders. Am I missing something here?

    Belarus does have a solid top 3/6 and a couple of solid Ds, but they don't exactly have great depth. And quite often you get these middling CHL prospects and they don't really show anything at the WJC, even at the D1a level.

    As for Latvia, this is one of those rare times we have a a bunch of players from the same team playing at a decent level. HK Riga is having one of the better seasons over the last few years in the MHL. Just plugging like 2 lines from that team into the Latvian U20 lineup provides really nice depth and bonus chemistry.

    We have 5 kids with games in the KHL/Allsvenskan under their belt, another third of them have played against grown men in the Latvian domestic league, which by the way has been growing in quality on a yearly basis. And it's definitely better than Belarus-3 or Belarus-2 where most of the Belarusian depth players are based. And then we have a few middling CHL prospects of our own.

    So, all in all, I think Latvia is the 2nd best team. Belarus has more top end talent, but their depth is lacking.

    I'm carefully optimistic and something tells me that just putting a bunch of guys from North America in your roster without a lengthy preparation period and numerous exhibition games can end up being a bad thing.

    The question is whether Belarus has enough raw skill to compensate that. We shall see.
     
  12. SoundAndFury

    SoundAndFury Registered User

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    Denmark is really weak this year, that's for sure. One of their worst teams in recent memory. Sogaard needs to steal games for them if they want to have a chance against Belarus or Latvia.

    Pettersen isn't attending either from what I understand? Or is he doing some weird thing like joining the team late like last year?
     
  13. Targaryen

    Targaryen Registered User

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    Looking at the rosters Belarus should be the clear favorite
     
  14. Sens72

    Sens72 Registered User

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    Is Almquist playing for Denmark?
     
  15. Canada4Gold

    Canada4Gold Registered User

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    I'm usually all for upsets to get a surprise team to the top tier, but Belarus looks seriously talented and has lots of guys that could carry into next year. Same groups that finished 4th and 2nd in their U18 pools(before QF losses). Them and Germany both in the top tier next year would make for a really fun tournament.
     
  16. Namejs

    Namejs The Buffalo Dahlins

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    This Latvian team made 40 shots on goal against Canada in the QFs at that same WJC U18 tournament and trailed just by a goal eventually pulling their goalie late in the 3rd.

    Belarus lost 0-6 to Russia.

    So, once again, Belarus has a few nice prospects. It doesn't make the whole team talented.
     
  17. Pan

    Pan Registered User

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    I'm wondering how Latvia's 40 shots against Canada are relevant to Belarus having (or not having) talented team and my only guess is that that should be a real proof of a team being talented, on the contrary to losing 0-6 to Russia. Correct me if I'm wrong.
     
  18. Namejs

    Namejs The Buffalo Dahlins

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    A) it was implied that Belarus not winning would be an upset, which is incorrect
    B) Belarus doesn't have a seriously talented TEAM, it has some players that are seriously talented. The drop off between the top line and line 4 is enormous. Half of their team sucks.

    It's just another North American guy jumping to assumptions based on limited data.
     
  19. Mr Sniper

    Mr Sniper Registered User

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    Is there any streaming available for the tournament?

    Regards
     
  20. SoundAndFury

    SoundAndFury Registered User

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    Belarus not winning would absolutely be an upset, I have no idea why would you say it wouldn't. Does Latvia have a kinda decent team? Sure. Does it match Belarus in any way other than pretty irrelevant bottom-line players? Not really.

    Half of Latvian team sucks as well, that's always the case in those tournaments were small countries play, nobody has a team 4 lines deep. Top-end talent is what makes the difference. Belarussians themselves last year boasted how they can't fail to win because they have a deeper team than Germans. See how much it mattered.

    Not saying Latvia has no chance at all but Belarus is absolutely the favorite.

    The whole tournament is sold to Belarussian Channel 5 Belarus 5 . I suspect it's going to be geo-blocked in most countries. You can of course find plenty of pirat streams.
     
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  21. ozo

    ozo Registered User

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    Can't find an official stream, but as all games are televised by Belarussian TV, some less legal ones are available in usual places.
     
  22. Namejs

    Namejs The Buffalo Dahlins

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    What odds would you provide on Belarus winning? 75%? An upset is something unexpected, right? To lose in a coinflip is by no means unexpected, so it surely must be significantly higher than 50%.
     
  23. Old Norse Hockey

    Old Norse Hockey Registered User

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    I think the final standings will look like this:

    1. Latvia
    2. Belarus
    3. Denmark
    4. Austria
    5. Norway
    6. Slovenia
     
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  24. Targaryen

    Targaryen Registered User

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    Yes he is playing
     
  25. SoundAndFury

    SoundAndFury Registered User

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    Maybe more like 65%. That's still almost double the chance to win, as in, heavy favorites.

    But more importantly, I don't see what is it that Latvia has over Belarus. I think we can establish quite clearly Belarus has a better defense, better offense and arguably a slight edge in goal as well. So all in all, other than the hope that Latvians are well-oiled and Belarus disjointed, what is there in Latvia's favor? 4th line depth?
     

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