GDT: 2020 HHOF Inductions June 24 - Alfredsson's 4th attempt. Start post #206

[JD1]

Andreychuk has the longevity and the numbers. Just played forever at a good (but never really elite) pace. He's the "Mike Gardner" candidate.

Kariya was far and away the better player, and it's not particularly close as far as I'm concerned.

and this

 

[Knave]

Kariya was way better than Andreychuck but time has made him age a lot better than he ever was.

 

[trentmccleary]

I have Kariya ahead of Alfie too.

At his peak, he was the best player in the league not named Lindros. He was robbed of his prime due to concussions - was never the same player after he left the Ducks, and has battled chronic symptoms very since.

Kariya was flat out one of the best players of the 90's. He absolutely deserves to be in, and I love Alfie as much as the next Sens fan, but Kariya was the better player when he was healthy.



If you saw Kariya in his prime, you wouldn't need to ask this question.

I understand that a lot of people here (not all, but some) are young enough that maybe they only really remember the tail end of Kariya's career. You had to see him on those old Ducks team, before Scott Stevens made an omelette out of his brains, to appreciate how unbelievably good he was.

I used to think this, but looking back... I don't see it anymore.
What was Kariya without Selanne? What did we really miss because of injury?

He finished 3rd in scoring the season after Suter cross checked him.
He finished the game that Stevens smoked him and even scored a goal afterwards.
He played seven 82 game seasons. That's a lot! (and 1 more where he only missed 1 game)

Take another look at his career and try to find the superstar without Selanne.

 

[LuckyPierre]

Take another look at his career and try to find the superstar without Selanne.

Starts right away in his freshman year. Likely the greatest single season ever in college hockey, by a freshman nonetheless.

95/96 as well. 50 goals, 100 points, one third of the year with Selanne.

And finally, the eye test. He was a dominant force individually that could generate his own offense.

Selanne had Zhamnov and Tkachuk in Winnipeg, and Kariya in Anaheim. He never had to go at it alone himself...

 

[trentmccleary]

In term of NHL PPG rank (min. 27 GP)

With Selanne:
4,5,7,11,25

Without Selanne:
18,31,43,52,58,62,80,147 (5 of these were full seasons, a 6th he missed 1 game)

 

[BonkTastic]

In term of NHL PPG rank (min. 27 GP)

With Selanne:
4,5,7,11,25

Without Selanne:
18,31,43,52,58,62,80,147 (5 of these were full seasons, a 6th he missed 1 game)

It's funny that his time with Selanne in Anaheim also comprises the bulk of his pre-Stevens Concussion career. You could also look at it like this, with context:

1995/96: 108pts, 1.32ppg (11th in the league in PPG)
96/97: 99pts in 69gp, 1.43ppg (4th in the league)
-----> Serious concussion #1 in Dec '96
97/98: 31pts in 22gp, 1.41ppg (1st in league)
-----> lost most of '97/98 season to Serious Concussion #2, by Gary Suter. Misses '98 Olympics and months of the season. Suffers extended bouts of short term memory loss. Admits that he changes his style of play because doctors have told him he can't risk more concussions.
98/99: 101pts in 82gp, 1.23ppg (9th)
99/00: 86pts in 74gp, 1.16ppg (5th)
00/01: 67pts in 66gp, 1.02ppg (28th)
01/02: 57 pts in 82 gp, 0.7ppg (89th)
----> first season without Selanne, Kariya also plays this season without Rucchin - his usual center. Ducks 1st line is Marty McInnis-Matt Cullen-Kariya. Team is terrible from top to bottom.
02/03: 81pts in 82gp, 0.99ppg (25th)
-------> Stevens gives Kariya concussion in playoffs, marks the beginning of Kariya's injury-induced decline from star forward to simply "good" forward.
2003/04: 36pts in 51 games, plagued with post-concussion problems all season.
04/05:
05/06: 85pts in 82gp, 1.04ppg (31st)
06/07: 76pts in 82gp, 0.93ppg (43)
07/08: 65pts in 82gp,
08/09: 15pts in 11 games
09/10: 43pts in 75gp
10/11: sits out entire season due to post-concussion symptoms, retires at end of season on doctor's orders.

Prime Kariya only ever had one "bad" season - the first season when Selanne left and the entire team looked like an expansion franchise - before starting his concussion-related decline.

 

[trentmccleary]

Suter hit him in February of 1998. He missed most of the season due to a contract holdout.

Kariya scored after Stevens hit him and played the final game of the playoffs after that.

He lost 2003-04 to recurring wrist injuries.

He lost 2008-09 to hip surgery.

 

[BonkTastic]

Suter hit him in February of 1998. He missed most of the season due to a contract holdout.

Contract holdout until December 12th. Concussion from Suter on Feb 1st, 1998.

Kariya scored after Stevens hit him and played the final game of the playoffs after that.

Which Kariya and many doctors agrees probably was a major factor in his early retirement. Kariya to this day regrets it, says he never felt the same afterwards. Post Concussion symptoms become chronic from here on out. In today's game, there's no way they would have let him play after that hit.

He lost 2003-04 to recurring wrist injuries.
He lost 2008-09 to hip surgery.

Yes. And yes.

 

[tony d]

I agree with Andreychuk going to the Hall but not sure about him getting in before Alfie.

 

[Langdon Alger]

I understand why Alfie might not be a first a ballot winner-but that Sundin, who never even get his team into the Finals and never won any hardware for himself or his team - is a first ballot winner.

I think we know the answer.

Sundin was better?

I love Alfie, but it was a pipe dream to think he'd get in on the first try. I hope he makes it someday. Maybe in the same class as Hossa and Chara?

 

[trentmccleary]

I posted my full thoughts on remembering Kariya on the HOH board.

I used to be were you are, but now view Kariya's career with a more critical eye.

I made this using hockey-reference adjusted stats from their 10 best seasons selected by PPG with a 27 game minimum (only 1 season for 1 player was below 41 GP).

Player|GP|G|Pts|GPG|PPG
Jagr|76|48|117|0.63|1.54
Forsberg|67|26|91|0.39|1.35
Sakic|76|39|101|0.51|1.33
Lindros|63|37|83|0.58|1.32
Selanne|77|46|98|0.60|1.27
Yzerman|77|40|96|0.52|1.25
Thornton|79|28|97|0.36|1.23
Oates|78|23|94|0.29|1.21
Turgeon|72|34|86|0.47|1.19
Messier|77|34|91|0.44|1.18
Hull|77|51|90|0.65|1.17
Palffy|65|35|76|0.54|1.17
St.Louis|81|35|94|0.43|1.16
Francis|77|25|89|0.33|1.15
Alfredsson|73|33|84|0.45|1.15
Mogilny|70|38|81|0.54|1.14
Modano|76|36|85|0.47|1.12
Bure|71|44|79|0.63|1.12
Sundin|77|37|86|0.48|1.12
Datsyuk|74|29|83|0.39|1.12
Kariya|78|35|88|0.45|1.12
Recchi|81|34|90|0.42|1.12
Iginla|80|44|88|0.55|1.11
Robitaille|80|42|88|0.52|1.10
Fedorov|77|36|83|0.47|1.09
Fleury|79|37|86|0.47|1.09
Savard|76|29|82|0.38|1.08
Hawerchuk|81|31|85|0.39|1.06
Hossa|78|38|83|0.49|1.06
Zetterberg|71|29|76|0.40|1.06
Roenick|77|35|82|0.45|1.06
H.Sedin|81|19|86|0.23|1.05
D.Sedin|79|31|83|0.40|1.05
Shanahan|77|41|81|0.53|1.04
Gilmour|79|25|82|0.31|1.04
Lafontaine|75|35|77|0.47|1.04
Elias|71|30|74|0.43|1.04
Naslund|80|36|80|0.46|1.00
Nieuwendyk|73|36|71|0.5|0.97
Marleau|81|35|74|0.44|0.93
Ciccarelli|78|35|71|0.44|0.92
Mullen|77|33|69|0.43|0.90
Federko|78|24|76|0.31|0.88
Andreychuk|77|33|67|0.45|0.88
Gartner|80|35|68|0.44|0.85

I expected Kariya to be up near Sakic and Selanne, maybe a little below... but surely not THAT much.

But it must have been his injuries, right? Not so much. The worst era adjusted season that I posted for him was a solid 0.83 PPG. A lot of these guys have a season or a couple like that tacked on at the end.

So how did the injuries affect him? ... I'm an Alfredsson guy, so I'm familiar with his numbers (and lots of injuries :-( ).

NHL PPG rank (min. 27 games)
P. Kariya = 4,5,7,11,18,25,31,43,52,58,62,80,147
Alfrdssn = 3,4,10,12,15,15,16,23,24,28,34,37,54,71

And Kariya hit a bunch of his top finishes precisely because he played seven 82 game seasons and missed 1 game in another season (that's half of his career and he missed 1 game in 8 years).

His key injuries were:
Feb 1998 - after he held out most of the season, Suter hits him in the head. He has another big offensive season the next year.
June 2003 - Stevens smokes him... maybe he was affected in Colorado the next year, but he came back strong after the lockout.

Ok, but in the back of my mind... I'm think about guys like Alfredsson (he's my guy), Recchi (longevity) and Naslund (the non-HHOF comparable for short peaks). But their peaks coincided with specific teammates. Naslund did little before or after Bertuzzi. Kariya was on a domut line like Naslund and had 4 big seasons to Naslund's 3. Recchi's best years by far were on teams with Lemieux/Jagr or Lindros. Alfredsson had some big seasons with Spezza & Heatley. But Kariya's 1-4 & 6th season best PPG ranks were achieved with Selanne and the drop off without him is significant. (Alfredsson's PPG ranks with the CASH line were 1,2,6 & 10th in his career)

Can we separate great Kariya from Selanne in international play? Not easily because he played in the Olympics at 19 in 1994 and 2002 under a PPG with a 14-6-5-11 line.

What did he really miss in his career? 4-5 years of declining seasons after his 35th birthday? I'm just not sure what kind of greatness we missed out on because of the injuries.

Additionally, I wanted to see how Alfie's production compared to Kariya and where longevity starts to make a difference.

Best era-adjusted seasons (min. 27GP) by PPG, difference (per season) and cumulative difference (total best seasons).

Kariya|Alfie|Diff.|Cu. Diff.
1.49|1.37|0.12|0.12
1.40|1.31|0.09|0.21
1.27|1.21|0.06|0.27
1.10|1.14| -0.04 |0.23
1.09|1.12|-0.03|0.20
1.01|1.12|-0.11|0.09
0.94|1.10|-0.16| -0.07
0.85|1.07|-0.22|-0.29
0.83|1.05|-0.22|-0.51
0.82|0.97|-0.15|-0.66
0.79|0.96|-0.17|-0.83
0.61|0.93|-0.32|-1.15

Kariya has the top 3 seasons between them, but then Alfredsson is better in every subsequent season. Somewhere around season 6.5, Alfredsson erodes Kariya's production advantage and doesn't look back.

Both players had significant injury histories in their careers. One was one of the top-2way players in the league throughout his career and the other was not.

 

[Que]

Hockey Hall of fame selection committee:

https://www.hhof.com/htmlinduct/indselect.shtml

Reading that lost makes me think the odds of Alfy getting in any time soon are slimmer than we might like to imagine. Poor Alfy.

 

[trentmccleary]

Alfie's 2nd opportunity for enshrinement comes tomorrow.
I've updated the tables in the first post because they didn't migrate to the new format.

Alfredsson's career playoff series:
* Indicates injury. I also believe his low ice times in 2003 point to injury.

Series	GP	G	Pts	PPG
2010.1	6	2	8	1.33
2002.1	5	3	6	1.20
2006.2	5	1	6	1.20
2007.1	5	3	6	1.20
2007.3	5	4	6	1.20
2013.1	5	2	6	1.20
1997.1	7	5	7	1.00
1998.2	5	4	5	1.00
2002.2	7	4	7	1.00
2007.2	5	3	5	1.00
2007.4	5	4	5	1.00
2006.1	5	1	4	0.80
2013.2	5	2	4	0.80
1999.1	4	1	3	0.75
1998.1	6	3	4	0.67
2000.1	6	1	4	0.67
2003.2	6	4	4	0.67
2003.1	5	0	3	0.60
2012.1*	4	2	2	0.50
2004.1	7	1	3	0.43
2001.1	4	1	1	0.25
2003.3	7	0	1	0.14
2008.1*	2	0	0	0.00
2014.1*	3	0	0	0.00

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Alfredsson was a 1.00 PPG or better in his 23 playoff series with Ottawa. Rest of the Team (ROT) achieved the feat 18 times in that same period, though mostly confined to a handful of series'

Series	DA	ROT
1.00 PPG	11	18
2006.1	0	5
2010.1	1	4
2007.2	1	2
2007.3	1	2
2002.1	1	2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Partially because of this, Alfredsson lost 6 playoff series where he posted a PPG. Is that normal?
Modano never lost one. Hossa lost once.
Hossa, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, St. Louis, Richards, Lecavalier, Elias, D.Sedin, H.Sedin, Iginla and Thornton I believe lost an average of 2.36 series each in their careers while going 1.00 PPG or better.

 

[coladin]

Who is his competition for this year's inductees?

 

[trentmccleary]

Who is his competition for this year's inductees?

Martin Brodeur, Martin St. Louis, Sergei Gonchar, Evgeni Nabokov and any possible holdovers from past years.

 

[Langdon Alger]

Who is his competition for this year's inductees?

Brodeur is a lock.

St. Louis
Roenick
Mogilny
Fleury
Joseph
Tkachuk
Turgeon
Zubov
Larmer
Gonchar

Have to think one woman will get in. Wickenheiser is not eligible I don’t think, but we should see one female get in regardless.

I’m going to guess Turgeon gets in, but that’s just a guess. I hope Alfie gets in, but my guess is he has to wait until next year.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Probably not.

 

[Langdon Alger]

Sorry if it’s been answered, but anyone know what time the announcement happens on Tuesday?

 

[Karl Eriksson]

Next year

 

[trentmccleary]

Sorry if it’s been answered, but anyone know what time the announcement happens on Tuesday?

3:00PM

Hockey Hall of Fame Class of 2018 to be announced

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Alfie ! Let’s do this!

 

[markog]

How can Gonchar be eligible after only 1 year out of NHL, while Brodeur had to wait for 3 or 4 years?

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

How can Gonchar be eligible after only 1 year out of NHL, while Brodeur had to wait for 3 or 4 years?

Gonchar's been retired from playing since 2015.

 

[Cat Herder]

So does the player decide which team he goes in as or does the league?? Given Alfredsson's dislike for our owner, he may choose Detroit if elected LOL or Sweden

 

[markog]

Ugh sorry, I mistaken him for Andrei Markov.